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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 23, 2025

[ Saturday, March 22, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, March 24, 2025 ]

DAY 174 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/24/2025 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.650
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -1

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.80 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.13 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 180 in
SWE DAY: 81
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 79.27 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -111

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-24 04:00:04OBSERVATION2025174-11139.5200425.8499432.68499180.262106666672.84.134.698.82TT7.52004-1.4799681439.74525680032 79.2694063875010.6497813403171317 31151212.5WETL
2025-03-24 00:00:01FORECAST2025174-11036.17625.28630.731189.328677862332.606300623.936300624.698.62630062TT4.176-7.82482443.9319905111484.0490568242680.500427188291871631151212.5WETL
2025-03-23 12:00:01FORECAST2025174-11036.525.4330.965185.090720203782.2153555273.5453555274.698.235355527TT4.5-7.582442.2656629238781.859270071980.515253009561711631151212.5WETL
2025-03-23 08:00:01FORECAST2025174-11036.35625.37630.866185.25724911132.251969723.581969724.698.27196972TT4.356-7.64482442.3314797481481.9451131334710.508665139852341631151212.5WETL
2025-03-23 04:00:03FORECAST2025174-11036.35626.04231.199183.753343006461.8972451193.2272451194.697.917245119TT4.356-7.64482441.7360837529381.1704821161850.508665139852341631151212.5WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2025174-11136.60826.4231.514183.231746244772.011812113.331812114.698.02181211TT4.608-7.39281440.9337119411880.7930540171720.520191279408731731151212.5WETL
2025-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2025174-11136.06825.80830.938181.570624719411.795276563.165276564.697.85527656TT4.068-7.93281440.270033009779.9401049388070.49548410506791721151210WETL
2025-03-22 16:00:01FORECAST2025174-11136.1425.68230.911181.895617814041.8405521753.2105521754.697.900552175TT4.14-7.8681440.4001000912580.1068482914650.498779463694051721151210WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:01FORECAST2025174-11136.26625.6130.938182.096665466061.7437017293.1137017294.697.803701729TT4.266-7.73481440.4805086208380.2100318226490.504546406419171731151212.5WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:02FORECAST2025174-11136.03224.83630.434182.19604731281.7688985933.1588985934.697.848898593TT4.032-8.96881440.5202409908180.2610466698080.493836527251151721151210WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:03FORECAST2025174-11135.76225.50230.632182.974764197581.9704735053.4204735054.698.110473505TT3.762-9.23881440.8312211993780.6609887498830.481484984282241721151210WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.70826.13230.92190.547438613812.0657491474.0357491474.698.725749147TT3.708-14.29281443.8235052979684.569432131130.479016427491631721151210WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.72625.10630.416176.689925820041.9988199774.0588199774.698.748819977TT3.726-14.27481438.3037353281377.4438544817760.479839195016051721151210WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:01FORECAST2025174-11135.72624.65630.191176.75237126691.9220482823.9420482824.698.632048282TT3.726-13.27481438.3290471132777.4756984724340.479839195016051721151210WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.7824.42230.101183.753231510791.9767727214.0767727214.698.766772721TT3.78-14.2281441.1414875443481.0611738897520.482307999021881721151210WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025174-11135.43825.41230.425184.294180110562.0074813994.1374813994.698.827481399TT3.438-12.56281441.3567273161981.3394761970150.466687599925861721151210WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2025174-11135.38425.5230.452184.909227052092.0267727484.5267727484.699.216772748TT3.384-12.61681441.6010913025881.6561164581180.464225285032221721151210WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.29425.17830.236189.352370211661.7267725863.9367725865.319.246772586TT3.294-13.70681443.3550995871683.9503389522560.460124516185611721151210WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.4225.6130.515179.453680094791.7858277363.9158277365.359.265827736TT3.42-12.5881439.4201676428978.8555661913860.465866681927771721151210WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.09623.95429.525179.613203019941.7818907263.8218907265.359.171890726TT3.096-13.90481439.4843687979878.9371951570020.451118346831951721151210WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.74424.18829.966183.945649712912.0082688013.8382688015.359.188268801TT3.744-13.25681441.218083330581.1601470033110.480662048446431721151210WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025174-11136.44625.30430.875183.474603464511.9354341163.6854341165.359.035434116TT4.446-11.55481441.0305078900980.9178975508870.512782949598141731151212.5WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025174-11135.34825.21430.281184.677438800261.9787412263.6587412265.359.008741226TT3.348-15.65281441.5090444522581.5367595365920.462584496752881721151210WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.54624.31429.93187.848971163831.0614178962.6314178965.688.311417896TT3.546-19.45481442.76382102183.172728247360.471615962543011721151210WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025174-11136.12223.64829.885184.2771645260.8874020542.4474020545.598.037402054TT4.122-13.87881441.3499614347381.3307194568530.497955607446211721151210WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.6924.29629.993184.22346900510.7633862392.2833862395.67.883386239TT3.69-15.3181441.3286086475481.3030872562430.478193749372571721151210WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025174-11137.97626.72632.351184.058553993790.9248036492.4748036495.548.014803649TT5.976-8.02481441.2630096384681.2182314850040.582222623829351731151212.5WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025174-11138.28228.09433.188183.602564204840.9338587722.4638587725.537.993858772TT6.282-6.71881441.0814853716180.9836917375090.595877179482661731151212.5WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025174-11136.26626.99631.631186.522950780881.011811572.511811575.538.04181157TT4.266-16.73481442.2404272085282.487989437530.504546406419171731151212.5WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025174-11136.10427.6831.892188.621714640280.8996067852.6996067855.578.269606785TT4.104-19.89681443.0680187829483.5722494051070.497131759917051721151210WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2025174-11136.0527.46431.757188.074611286340.9047248982.6147248985.518.124724898TT4.05-20.9581442.8527081107583.2893509350320.494660304774081721151210WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025174-11136.03227.87831.955188.052675568250.8598429842.5898429845.488.069842984TT4.032-18.96881442.8440691429383.2780120618610.493836527251151721151210WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.56426.74431.154191.614177316831.1153549333.3053549335.468.765354933TT3.564-19.43681444.240413008585.122761269510.472437799587631721151210WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.02426.04230.533191.247540014181.0996068933.2096068935.438.639606893TT3.024-20.97681444.0972495230184.9325064983390.44784935742841721151210WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:04FORECAST2025174-11135.13225.23230.182192.361171425471.1822841033.4422841035.448.882284103TT3.132-21.86881444.5316849243485.5106356477830.452754099701871721151210WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025174-11134.62824.29629.462196.152932390930.9944887263.0144887265.48.414488726TT2.628-29.37281446.001696084987.4845405383830.429939000717481721151210WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025174-11133.85422.65828.256194.546718934470.9944887262.9644887265.448.404488726TT1.854-31.14681445.3807182256386.6473574074730.395377704251311721151210WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025174-11133.65622.85628.256195.460765708021.0358273313.0858273315.498.575827331TT1.656-31.34481445.7344082732487.1235887434980.386655672760691721151210WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025174-11133.42222.0127.716195.312615860261.208662072.848662075.468.30866207TT1.422-31.57881445.6771374929187.0463675528540.376421450397891721151210WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025174-11132.86421.90227.383194.928867408661.208662072.848662075.348.18866207TT0.864-30.13681445.528690326486.846403003390.352376396173251721151210WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025174-11132.8122.4627.635193.787524393221.3377959982.9077959985.418.317795998TT0.81-31.1981445.0863232803686.2521767297840.350078683524261721151210WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2025174-11135.34825.1630.25422.9187916223311.6507882933.0707882935.158.220788293TT3.348-30.65281362.042935818278.2975866043560.462584496752881721152220WETL
2025-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.40224.8930.14618.6375896390761.6507882933.0707882935.048.110788293TT3.402-26.59881359.464170761216.69954570459810.465045909138641721152220WETL
2025-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025174-11135.65424.40430.02919.5256895472911.6409457683.1409457685.128.260945768TT3.654-30.34681360.00142186367.02927599989190.476548675342451721152220WETL
2025-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025174-11135.54626.29430.9223.387638864881.2433077582.9733077585.058.023307758TT3.546-28.45481362.323644214038.4738945430850.471615962543011721152220WETL
2025-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025174-11135.40225.10630.25423.0703736148921.1763785882.8963785885.097.986378588TT3.402-29.59881362.133727615628.35456039464580.465045909138641721152220WETL
2025-03-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025174-11135.38425.10630.24523.5469756231011.0015753442.6115753445.117.721575344TT3.384-28.61681362.418966294598.53387056468830.464225285032221721152220WETL
2025-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025174-11133.02624.42228.72451.2210782089891.645670184.165670185.759.91567018TT1.026-33.97481378.4030903523119.3822142854590.359301615083811721151210WETL
2025-03-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025174-11132.9925.03429.01236.9047608793991.6405520674.2405520676.0710.310552067TT0.99-30.0181370.2745307888913.6648930184960.357758584709081721151210WETL
2025-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2025174-11131.83824.2628.04935.5031374097981.6996072174.0496072175.959.999607217TT-0.162-31.16281369.4627117504613.1170854230730.309725539529991721151210WETL
2025-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025174-11132.68425.39429.03940.9902778055772.0728357653.8028357655.859.652835765TT0.684-26.31681372.6244349496915.2739791057340.344738765474381721151210WETL
2025-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2025174-11135.61826.3330.97440.0276649613482.0637806423.8037806426.029.823780642TT3.618-17.38281372.0729540217814.8932115447630.474904000897191721151210WETL
2025-03-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025174-11132.75623.46828.11244.1601786479961.9417333323.9017333326.1810.081733332TT0.756-25.24481374.4309695468616.5349385065320.347786443544181721151210WETL
2025-03-15 00:00:03FORECAST2025174-11132.64824.1728.409206.727940349891.8909459034.5309459035.7610.290945903TT0.648-26.35281450.0274545233593.0332487745150.343218679410771721151210WETL
2025-03-14 20:00:03FORECAST2025174-11132.79224.36828.58203.874535875871.8909459034.5309459035.7810.310945903TT0.792-22.20881448.9518333056691.5298466458140.349313991759831721151210WETL
2025-03-14 16:00:03FORECAST2025174-11132.7224.00828.364202.298529883451.893701814.413701815.7310.14370181TT0.72-22.2881448.3543905690390.7014340789060.346261360797091721151210WETL
2025-03-14 12:00:03FORECAST2025174-11135.07826.79830.938200.938506811762.0909460114.9109460115.3210.230946011TT3.078-14.92281447.8368981386589.9876776071890.450300779791181721151210WETL
2025-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025174-11135.07826.79830.938200.304408919452.1452767494.9552767495.1110.065276749TT3.078-13.92281447.5950104683889.6552540071620.450300779791181721151210WETL
2025-03-14 04:00:06FORECAST2025174-11135.74427.17631.46180.783691932412.0759853734.6559853734.929.575985373TT3.744-7.25681439.9546456744879.5366251278460.480662048446431721151210WETL
2025-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025174-11128.88626.47427.68189.771902829860.6326775072.9726775074.787.752677507TT-3.114-25.11481443.5196969048984.1675768241650.20175420304945171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025174-11128.41822.20825.313184.46179171010.6901578533.1201578534.888.000157853TT-3.582-22.58281441.4233588411181.425743674520.18697770142501171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025174-11127.17621.3824.278188.970435763180.6570869693.0470869695.158.197086969TT-4.824-23.82481443.2051007468683.7526610205990.15111207972451171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025174-11125.723.32424.512191.865283844880.1090551772.8690551775.898.759055177TT-6.3-18.381444.3383874710985.2531108353150.11483642587661171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025174-11125.723.32424.512194.198648379170.1090551772.9890551776.39.289055177TT-6.3-18.381445.2458164245386.4661357461260.11483642587661171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025174-11122.69421.72222.208194.6875276255202.916.439.34TT-9.306-24.30681445.4352576146286.7206890222280.060953555747304171115127.5WETL