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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 22, 2025

[ Friday, March 21, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 23, 2025 ]

DAY 173 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/23/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.307
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -11

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.94 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 181 in
SWE DAY: 80
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.32 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 79.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -112

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-23 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025173-11231.6799622.2826.97998180.705019166670.0900000000000321.944.476.41TT-0.32004-11.3200480439.32162615256 79.387622874230.3073776402872217 21151210WETL
2025-03-23 00:00:01FORECAST2025173-11129.37217.85223.612179.380854194840.0842520141.9342520144.086.014252014TT-2.628-11.62881439.390849682978.8183059415140.22268301645442161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 12:00:01FORECAST2025173-11129.19217.85223.522178.576375519910.133858341.983858344.086.06385834TT-2.808-11.80881439.0666247717678.4069264635020.21668631267513161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 08:00:01FORECAST2025173-11128.27418.15823.216178.624610008120.1488189781.9988189784.086.078818978TT-3.726-12.72681439.0860831460378.4315803619510.18758748020214161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 04:00:03FORECAST2025173-11128.00418.12223.063178.548556188590.2122048392.0622048394.086.142204839TT-3.996-12.99681439.0554010339778.3927079414180.17951010359178161115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025173-11227.87816.91622.397186.003042287480.3649608272.5849608274.477.054960827TT-4.122-20.12280441.4413176464382.1094280736290.17581645668766171115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 20:00:02FORECAST2025173-11227.24816.91622.082172.094502755020.2279528792.6679528794.477.137952879TT-4.752-19.75280435.8152000083375.0014001385150.15807556040679171115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 16:00:01FORECAST2025173-11227.51817.63622.577171.902698927660.1909449852.6309449854.477.100944985TT-4.482-19.48280435.7362160182374.904231554060.16553011535855171115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025173-11227.3219.16623.243179.005759235990.2673229792.7073229794.477.177322979TT-4.68-19.6880438.6357036289278.5183171561090.1600416104069171115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025173-11228.16619.59823.882178.939758775080.2385828062.7385828064.477.208582806TT-3.834-17.83480438.6090021377578.4845890391080.18433000728739171115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:03FORECAST2025173-11228.29219.59823.945180.208785662750.251968643.111968644.477.58196864TT-3.708-17.70880439.1216227022279.1335743854220.1881338223077171115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.7619.424.08185.48234984780.1673229253.4373229254.477.907322925TT-3.24-19.2480441.2342549436481.8411664402890.2026806535848171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.65219.61624.134175.216792773570.1901575833.4001575834.477.870157583TT-3.348-18.34880437.0955487333576.5864801846610.19926548894185171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.65219.59824.125174.951330485420.1984253043.3084253044.477.778425304TT-3.348-19.34880436.9870858759576.4514720789440.19926548894185171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.63419.7624.197179.18973807510.2279528793.0979528794.477.567952879TT-3.366-19.36680438.7101114432578.6123499604130.19869967600598171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025173-11229.26419.77824.521178.948298323180.271653693.021653694.477.49165369TT-2.736-17.73680438.6124571940578.4889528382220.21907373143209171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025173-11228.38219.38223.882179.365842571580.220472562.950472564.477.42047256TT-3.618-20.61880438.7813020202378.7023779415160.19088020375818171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.14819.34623.747184.593416164080.2066930252.8866930254.757.636693025TT-3.852-24.85280440.8801210331281.3835676603350.18379052931174171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.50819.38223.945181.856985402220.1409449582.8409449584.77.540944958TT-3.492-20.49280439.7849473925679.9779647580830.19476612110233171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.63418.89623.765182.048617306920.1728347392.8128347394.77.512834739TT-3.366-21.36680439.8618903825180.0762489501430.19869967600598171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025173-11230.70420.1225.412182.506672780620.1401575562.7801575564.77.480157556TT-1.296-16.29680440.0456546222980.3112682966850.269878938526591721151210WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025173-11231.38821.226.294182.140197060370.1263780212.7063780214.747.446378021TT-0.612-14.61280439.8986477586680.1232263893510.295921261778281721151210WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025173-11229.31820.24624.782182.985265959060.1129921872.6429921874.787.422992187TT-2.682-22.68280440.2374299877780.5569632114440.22087416079973171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2025173-11229.06621.3825.223185.869502532050.2996064612.9696064614.797.759606461TT-2.934-25.93480441.3882392714882.0406124568860.21254467335585171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:01FORECAST2025173-11229.1220.3924.755185.126449960070.2732284942.8532284944.767.613228494TT-2.88-26.8880441.0925673159681.6579010909770.21431398291276171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025173-11230.1120.33625.223185.069500730280.2539371452.8339371454.777.603937145TT-1.89-24.8980441.0698833165781.6285830925590.24823289810428171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025173-11229.49820.69625.097187.200799052650.4417325223.2317325224.818.041732522TT-2.502-24.50280441.9165889114182.7271385588350.22693629252359171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025173-11229.4820.33624.908186.771804501910.4248033793.1748033794.767.934803379TT-2.52-25.5280441.7465295512382.505796456740.22632589577491171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025173-11229.37220.58824.98187.451038265710.5677168423.2977168424.798.087716842TT-2.628-26.62880442.0157016514182.8563022043050.22268301645442171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025173-11227.8620.13823.999191.60180879450.3956695052.9556695054.857.805669505TT-4.14-34.1480443.650549917385.004247836830.17529274093205171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:02FORECAST2025173-11226.83419.36423.099189.789918664290.3956695052.9156695054.887.795669505TT-5.166-35.16680442.9390269245284.0653618932430.14707884096288171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025173-11226.5119.29222.901190.503104000680.3846458772.9746458774.967.934645877TT-5.49-35.4980443.2194831958884.4346873023950.13883813640842171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2025173-11227.78819.34623.567189.441228109740.3279529332.4479529335.047.487952933TT-4.212-35.21280442.8017212232683.8849018776430.1732077596946171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025173-11227.7719.47223.621188.892585562140.3279529332.3979529334.977.367952933TT-4.23-33.2380442.5854330262483.6011067764650.17268898613766171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025173-11227.4119.50823.459189.30699895760.311023792.351023795.027.37102379TT-4.59-33.5980442.7488326832483.8154528072470.16252150272154171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.7620.37224.56618.4617386718890.2881891322.0781891324.886.958189132TT-3.24-36.2480358.449461476846.61760028486470.20268065358481711152215WETL
2025-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.99420.51624.75514.0954240072520.2881891321.9581891324.896.848189132TT-3.006-32.00680355.779069286215.01485683449470.210198890012871711152215WETL
2025-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.38220.35424.36815.1599306883570.2811025142.1811025144.837.011102514TT-3.618-35.61880356.432842980785.40349719464260.190880203758181711152215WETL
2025-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025173-11228.8520.31824.58417.8350640792490.3527560962.3327560964.847.172756096TT-3.15-34.1580358.068011745956.38616593421850.20555311310491711152215WETL
2025-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025173-11226.97819.99423.48617.9435447201270.3472442822.3272442824.877.197244282TT-5.022-35.02280358.134086147026.42619499058080.150844284592241711152215WETL
2025-03-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025173-11226.97820.06623.52217.9310079581590.3618112192.1918112194.927.111811219TT-5.022-34.02280358.126451069456.42156824415370.150844284592241711152215WETL
2025-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025173-11227.39220.89424.14341.1283117031410.4161419573.1561419575.58.656141957TT-4.608-36.60880371.8460290472715.2933993882320.16202353958559171115127.5WETL
2025-03-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025173-11228.05820.9324.49426.8616230014560.4366144093.2466144095.819.056614409TT-3.942-32.94280363.504192936289.76431259010290.181107882769881711152215WETL
2025-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2025173-11227.75220.13823.94524.7493524812680.2830710192.9530710195.748.693071019TT-4.248-33.24880362.243240673768.96528564739160.172171201774251711152215WETL
2025-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2025173-11230.12821.6525.88928.1760628436650.5055120842.2955120845.677.965512084TT-1.872-28.87280364.2854599480210.2641300125290.24887497929243171115127.5WETL
2025-03-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025173-11230.0221.57825.79928.2835773022510.5204727222.3204727225.838.150472722TT-1.98-22.9880364.3492482673610.3051001283870.24503576622715171115127.5WETL
2025-03-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025173-11227.78821.97424.88131.3875412630480.7594492292.5394492295.998.529449229TT-4.212-28.21280366.1833388348511.493594657520.1732077596946171115127.5WETL
2025-03-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025173-11229.2123.91826.564191.586994399691.3519692343.1619692345.638.791969234TT-2.79-28.7980443.6447456229784.996563395120.21728175512962171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025173-11229.53424.69227.113188.761854913021.3519692343.1619692345.658.811969234TT-2.466-25.46680442.5338513523683.5335106430730.22815986214547171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025173-11229.31823.82826.573187.369015211211.169291972.979291975.668.63929197TT-2.682-24.68280441.983221558182.8139609632190.22087416079973171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025173-11231.20826.16828.688187.229404867191.7657489853.2057489855.328.525748985TT-0.792-19.79280441.927922062382.7419018419180.288957219041331721151210WETL
2025-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025173-11231.20826.16828.688186.192163733141.740158423.200158425.118.31015842TT-0.792-18.79280441.5164574157782.2069045300320.288957219041331721151210WETL
2025-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2025173-11231.96427.01429.489180.888783132411.6389772632.8589772635.037.888977263TT-0.036000000000001-13.03680439.3956269976679.4817402813090.31870654205281721151210WETL
2025-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025173-11230.43424.06227.248183.984476205451.2263786152.8663786154.647.506378615TT-1.566-23.56680440.6370692929581.0703803905670.259924061263181721151210WETL
2025-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025173-11230.34423.93627.14178.036673093251.3090558252.9690558254.737.699055825TT-1.656-20.65680438.2431950618178.0233604545610.256648308301291721151210WETL
2025-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025173-11230.36222.69426.528182.491744641751.2039376583.0439376584.897.933937658TT-1.638-20.63880440.0396690709780.303606920340.257301737177071721151210WETL
2025-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025173-11233.54824.58429.066190.627000589131.1838589073.1638589075.889.043858907TT1.548-14.45280443.268153083784.4988784790310.384764735782541721151210WETL
2025-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025173-11233.54824.83629.192192.960365123431.2720479313.2920479316.289.572047931TT1.548-14.45280444.1819062848185.7095028179390.384764735782541721151210WETL
2025-03-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025173-11231.20823.37827.293194.687527625521.1444888073.3244888076.419.734488807TT-0.792-16.79280444.8547894024486.6076791011350.288957219041331721151210WETL
2025-03-13 00:00:04FORECAST2025173-11227.80622.11824.962185.797933521170.2385828062.0285828066.138.158582806TT-4.194-23.19480441.3597851498582.0037360201880.17372752220518171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025173-11227.80622.47825.142181.26867524690.23622062.03622066.58.5362206TT-4.194-21.19480439.548498217179.6763739785770.17372752220518171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 16:00:03FORECAST2025173-11227.26622.1924.728185.73372845820.7354334682.4354334686.428.855433468TT-4.734-21.73480441.3342543552681.9706565577190.15856558416005171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025173-11230.86624.74627.806192.179645748630.5645672342.3545672347.499.844567234TT-1.134-14.13480443.8767766818485.3040816987590.2759420242761721151210WETL
2025-03-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025173-11230.86624.74627.806191.776174055060.5645672342.3545672347.379.724567234TT-1.134-15.13480443.7188499852685.0947034062840.2759420242761721151210WETL
2025-03-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025173-11223.43221.54222.487183.9515059970401.257.518.76TT-8.568-24.56880440.6238988628281.0534297741040.075979959319003171114126WETL