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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 21, 2025

[ Thursday, March 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 22, 2025 ]

DAY 172 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/22/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.95°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.236
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -11

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 178 in
SWE DAY: 79
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 77.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-22 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025172-11331.3399425.9500228.64498177.673529166671.241.884.726.6TT-0.66006-10.6600679437.48745101655 77.729939388240.2364959317276817 1115127.5WETL
2025-03-22 00:00:02FORECAST2025172-11226.1520.82223.486184.229809255331.6110244922.2510244924.446.691024492TT-5.85-15.8580440.7350365236881.1965317108970.099208891949423161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 12:00:02FORECAST2025172-11227.12222.06424.593177.770272022251.8338592582.4738592584.446.913859258TT-4.878-14.87880438.1351253334577.8874004130320.11909235880443161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 08:00:01FORECAST2025172-11227.89623.05425.475177.877111816941.8940955112.5340955114.446.974095511TT-4.104-14.10480438.1784753370577.9419216533040.13681707491986161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 04:00:03FORECAST2025172-11228.1482325.574179.051538063052.2539382252.8939382254.447.333938225TT-3.852-13.85280438.6542215212978.5417130412350.14295743762262161115127.5WETL
2025-03-21 00:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.43622.83825.637184.671705255882.0413396853.3013396854.728.021339685TT-3.564-15.56479440.3136502102981.3134726317770.15019915050619171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 20:00:01FORECAST2025172-11328.74222.65825.7174.3039475681.9362215183.2362215184.727.956221518TT-3.258-15.25879436.1086300902576.0154557932020.15815621574913171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 16:00:01FORECAST2025172-11328.3122.65825.484173.982667581551.8417332783.1417332784.727.861733278TT-3.69-15.6979435.9765461679775.8523625052940.14700142882838171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.32822.58625.457178.096591561621.6015756682.9015756684.727.621575668TT-3.672-15.67279437.6597343075977.9457069439470.14745543758406171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.3282325.664177.689190514081.4846464712.7846464714.727.504646471TT-3.672-14.67279437.4938320723577.7379248758370.14745543758406171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 04:00:03FORECAST2025172-11327.1421.90224.521178.301907249171.4614181122.7614181124.727.481418112TT-4.86-16.8679437.7432781159978.0504613735830.11948528386464171115127.5WETL
2025-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2025172-11327.26621.97424.62183.51377442391.3574810482.9874810484.727.707481048TT-4.734-20.73479439.849483758180.7184389428530.12226129598221171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.18421.99225.088181.113948199531.4177173012.9577173014.727.677717301TT-3.816-16.81679438.8831353484679.487857441150.14384955907331171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11327.42821.30824.368181.122205305451.3480322242.8980322244.727.618032224TT-4.572-17.57279438.8864703819979.492085394310.12589634426751171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.83222.80225.817181.80888841711.4106306832.9006306834.727.620630683TT-3.168-15.16879439.1635760907979.8438416023450.16054810595692171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.7623.9926.375181.537492673171.4043314672.8843314674.727.604331467TT-3.24-14.2479439.0541141763779.7047830354170.15863271798717171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 04:00:03FORECAST2025172-11327.30222.78425.043182.42451927691.3850401182.8650401184.727.585040118TT-4.698-19.69879439.41159864880.1594496480570.12306266730426171115127.5WETL
2025-03-19 00:00:01FORECAST2025172-11327.39223.79225.592184.374456642861.500000813.000000814.747.74000081TT-4.608-22.60879440.1946257808281.1606449454450.12508213257482171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 20:00:01FORECAST2025172-11327.39223.88225.637183.75183342221.4421267632.8821267634.747.622126763TT-4.608-23.60879439.9450232531180.8407046277290.12508213257482171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11327.39223.12625.259183.808199038361.4791346572.8891346574.747.629134657TT-4.608-22.60879439.9676358375280.869658778460.12508213257482171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2025172-11327.9522.78425.367184.995105490611.7543316563.1443316564.747.884331656TT-4.05-22.0579440.4430442532981.4798074342430.13811749311378171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.02222.31625.169184.623504025491.6921268983.0621268984.737.792126898TT-3.978-22.97879440.2943555550681.2886867252190.13986441912632171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 04:00:03FORECAST2025172-11328.4923.03625.763184.537677291731.688977293.048977294.757.79897729TT-3.51-23.5179440.2599937944581.2445566593010.15158365215667171115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:02FORECAST2025172-11327.98622.29825.142189.249601954551.6240166252.9140166254.787.694016625TT-4.014-30.01479442.1354296254283.6739540666140.13898909296033171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 20:00:01FORECAST2025172-11327.6821.224.44187.350230154641.570866992.870866994.817.68086699TT-4.32-30.3279441.382142731982.6930460269710.13169901170746171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11327.60821.16424.386188.135078022381.673229253.023229254.817.83322925TT-4.392-30.39279441.6938524045583.0981073841360.13002264438748171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025172-11327.7721.1124.44187.384435193411.3125991342.6325991344.817.442599134TT-4.23-31.2379441.3957405376182.7106915374180.13381530112438171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2025172-11327.6821.3824.53186.84730306061.3125991342.5725991344.757.322599134TT-4.32-29.3279441.1820736108382.4336806128680.13169901170746171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:04FORECAST2025172-11327.33821.2924.314187.332713234421.2578746952.5478746954.797.337874695TT-4.662-28.66279441.3751786314982.6840097673630.12386770213212171115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025172-11326.3321.84824.08916.5929835572551.1346462822.2446462824.716.954646282TT-5.67-32.6779356.394194104765.91364300268150.102695677358081711152215WETL
2025-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2025172-11326.74421.8324.28712.2307517997451.1346462822.1446462824.76.844646282TT-5.256-29.25679353.703413705284.32605866375170.111050263712161711153222.5WETL
2025-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11326.2421.5623.913.3210339529451.2161423892.3461423894.667.006142389TT-5.76-31.7679354.378735860214.72069117259540.100941345037471711153222.5WETL
2025-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2025172-11326.58221.14623.86415.5822931984621.3822842112.3922842114.717.102284211TT-5.418-31.41879355.773415150645.54376566709540.107725074038481711152215WETL
2025-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2025172-11326.13220.91223.52215.672725342281.3657487692.3957487694.737.125748769TT-5.868-29.86879355.829024670115.5768105724660.0988650175361991711152215WETL
2025-03-16 04:00:04FORECAST2025172-11326.2421.00223.62115.5045974263381.2535439842.2535439844.787.033543984TT-5.76-28.7679355.725627417025.51538264733240.100941345037471711152215WETL
2025-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2025172-11326.85221.81224.33238.1411698586172.1043318453.3043318455.228.524331845TT-5.148-32.14879369.2571633852314.0839001901870.11330737874468171115127.5WETL
2025-03-15 20:00:02FORECAST2025172-11326.67221.81224.24223.7377106302522.1563003773.3863003775.518.896300377TT-5.328-29.32879360.73741774688.56308043597790.109563464865921711152215WETL
2025-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11326.40221.52423.96322.6745100626972.0696861573.2496861575.448.689686157TT-5.598-28.59879360.096087635328.1650023626250.104114965840651711152215WETL
2025-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.25621.23624.74624.6993654416941.216536092.206536095.537.73653609TT-3.744-26.74479361.316004917018.92427604537810.145645016536241711152215WETL
2025-03-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025172-11330.79422.8226.80724.8225030759851.2181108942.2181108945.697.908110894TT-1.206-21.20679361.389989625738.97060412911490.218466629485131711152215WETL
2025-03-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025172-11328.95821.21825.08826.0483606330981.200788052.180788055.878.05078805TT-3.042-24.04279362.125260395639.432769377140.163936139651631711152215WETL
2025-03-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025172-11329.53423.32426.429181.734283375771.2917329812.1017329815.627.721732981TT-2.466-26.46679439.1334931954179.8056106921680.18000848543675171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025172-11330.21824.15227.185179.038472599271.2917329812.1117329815.637.741732981TT-1.782-22.78279438.0426313677678.4264836534490.20033053660492171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11330.224.11627.158178.6883518571.3527566362.1127566365.647.752756636TT-1.8-21.879437.9004059094878.2477018094750.19977872646095171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025172-11330.12824.1727.149175.621288745241.0535438761.6535438765.397.043543876TT-1.872-18.87279436.6490868508676.6848753621820.19758062611648171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2025172-11329.49824.51227.005174.765256073251.0665360091.6465360095.26.846536009TT-2.502-17.50279436.2980938359476.2497480935070.17897594692401171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2025172-11329.9324.40427.167173.471579485550.9444886991.4144886995.126.534488699TT-2.07-13.0779435.7662065095675.5930521296380.19161151405248171114126WETL
2025-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2025172-11329.2122.3725.79175.443980524151.1110242221.7410242224.826.561024222TT-2.79-21.7979436.5764490695176.5947100278510.17084996752253171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2025172-11328.77821.2925.034170.267782875911.1224415511.7624415514.916.672441551TT-3.222-19.22279434.4414365749273.9713801950380.1591101581378171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11328.83222.20825.52172.487159578561.1948825351.9648825355.057.014882535TT-3.168-19.16879435.3602956017175.094060781620.16054810595692171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2025172-11329.5723.48626.528181.142743980841.5842528242.2842528245.868.144252824TT-2.43-16.4379438.8947656208779.5026021633930.18104474751825171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2025172-11329.7523.77426.762182.853120480721.6078748842.3178748846.268.577874884TT-2.25-16.2579439.5840426974380.3793139207530.1862818134426171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025172-11329.98424.65627.32184.678305292211.7696859952.4796859956.398.869685995TT-2.016-16.01679440.3162919802581.3168665954640.19322842127115171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 00:00:04FORECAST2025172-11330.224.8927.545183.304877269661.4114180852.2314180855.978.201418085TT-1.8-18.879439.7656000959980.6111793530140.19977872646095171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 20:00:03FORECAST2025172-11330.43424.78227.608178.808046635971.4267724242.2367724246.348.576772424TT-1.566-16.56679437.9490423505378.3088127887940.20702326901711171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11330.09224.36827.23177.918573631811.3287408752.2187408756.188.398740875TT-1.908-16.90879437.5872627977277.8549016364170.19648706851306171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 12:00:03FORECAST2025172-11336.21223.3629.786186.507868647751.5594496612.1794496617.389.559449661TT4.212-12.78879441.0468988862482.2587170849720.426852139115041721151210WETL
2025-03-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025172-11336.21223.41429.813186.104396954181.5606307642.1806307647.269.440630764TT4.212-13.78879440.8860705931282.0508362932310.426852139115041721151210WETL
2025-03-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025172-11334.4324.18829.309183.951505997041.003937551.753937557.299.04393755TT2.43-15.5779440.0251127053480.9432821586650.352189724300391721151210WETL
2025-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025172-11330.05623.0926.573186.480821660370.2429135170.9929135177.818.802913517TT-1.944-21.94479441.0361228103282.2447785635730.19539717885161171114126WETL
2025-03-11 20:00:04FORECAST2025172-11332.82825.39429.111182.33973115510.2429135170.9929135177.678.662913517TT0.828-19.17279439.3774626202880.1159684097910.28953478443913172114128WETL
2025-03-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025172-11333.8925.59229.741182.972630328850.200787510.850787517.938.78078751TT1.89-21.1179439.6320930067880.4406404344290.33050693116152172113126WETL
2025-03-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025172-11334.21433.36833.791178.577442324020.2877954310.6577954317.247.897795431TT2.214-14.78679437.8553260401978.1910842322070.34345401632744172113126WETL
2025-03-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025172-11334.21433.36833.791177.856190535970.2877954310.6577954317.37.957795431TT2.214-3.78679437.5618587407877.8230853194740.34345401632744172113126WETL
2025-03-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025172-11333.58432.37832.981180.032148937760.2767718031.0767718037.258.326771803TT1.584-1.41679438.445592700478.9343022461410.31846218882576172114128WETL