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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 17, 2025

[ Sunday, March 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 18, 2025 ]

DAY 168 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/18/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.160
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 63

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.22 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.85 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 171 in
SWE DAY: 75
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.79 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -117

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-18 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025168-11727.8000617.4999222.64999170.747690.219999999999911.84999999999992.954.7999999999999TF-4.1999462.8000675432.14006624729 73.7869180681720.1596375572210717 1115127.5WETL
2025-03-18 00:00:01FORECAST2025168-11622.1913.20817.699175.061529556260.2228347661.8528347662.954.802834766TF-9.8137.1976434.5682502567276.0761825865310.052724365774072161115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2025168-11622.42413.15417.789174.037691846440.2318898891.8618898892.954.811889889TF-9.57637.42476434.1429454640175.5572361599710.055583548303978161115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 08:00:01FORECAST2025168-11622.85612.00217.429173.750069493520.1673229251.7973229252.954.747322925TF-9.14437.85676434.0232672723475.4115728503730.061181058475492161115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 04:00:03FORECAST2025168-11623.39611.89417.645174.223244631370.2263780751.8563780752.954.806378075TF-8.60438.39676434.220106646375.6512358640980.068784103128246161115127.5WETL
2025-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025168-11724.7111.96618.3384.31495689673590.1622048121.7822048122.954.732204812TF-7.2954.7175344.927774645041.48834848008040.0902986628621571711154230WETL
2025-03-16 20:00:01FORECAST2025168-11725.57414.48620.030.639182199799890.145669371.785669372.954.73566937TF-6.42657.57475342.554847484680.218954960967370.106938031134541711154230WETL
2025-03-16 16:00:01FORECAST2025168-11725.55613.58619.5710.531776849115210.1228347121.7628347122.954.712834712TF-6.44457.55675342.485177375220.182125688493260.106570279250931711154230WETL
2025-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025168-11725.59214.8120.2012.33437785260890.15748041.79748042.954.7474804TF-6.40857.59275343.651948224130.802213496940310.107306694669861711154230WETL
2025-03-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025168-11726.22216.1621.1912.36764391779690.1755906461.8055906462.954.755590646TF-5.77859.22275343.67343021050.81369630674630.120789997724491711154230WETL
2025-03-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025168-11726.04215.90820.9752.58273549834970.1539370911.8539370912.954.803937091TF-5.95860.04275343.81228454330.887976192058680.116821770641871711154230WETL
2025-03-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025168-11725.57416.12420.84918.1542178895590.2358268992.2558268992.955.205826899TF-6.42656.57475353.665707786196.42052431921580.106938031134541711152215WETL
2025-03-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025168-11725.89816.44821.1733.30117046760930.2665355772.5465355772.955.496535577TT-6.10258.89875344.27552731641.13651220349750.113714197128971711154230WETL
2025-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2025168-11725.82616.10620.9663.08426646126420.267716682.497716682.955.44771668TF-6.17458.82675344.135757920781.06140637627680.112182630697421711154230WETL
2025-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2025168-11726.38416.9721.67711.4414087249490.251968642.591968642.955.54196864TT-5.61659.38475349.465677742963.99837965439860.1244414452861711153222.5WETL
2025-03-15 08:00:02FORECAST2025168-11727.39218.33822.86511.7000462469860.2653544742.7053544742.955.655354474TT-4.60859.39275349.628830417644.0906734851660.148887380713431711153222.5WETL
2025-03-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025168-11726.40217.0621.73112.4214617509470.291338742.861338742.955.81133874TT-5.59861.40275350.083344809574.34854687719560.12485186157321711153222.5WETL
2025-03-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025168-11727.21217.94222.577168.705339557640.2299213842.5699213843.095.659921384TT-4.78856.21275431.2779407323672.7588914349730.14430234744922171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2025168-11726.67218.08622.379166.292083064470.2346457962.5546457963.125.674645796TT-5.32857.67275430.2534656053471.5477450412170.13112141932179171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025168-11726.43818.19422.316165.916517029080.2051182212.5351182213.125.655118221TT-5.56258.43875430.0934649476971.3596097010880.1256755205195171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025168-11727.12217.18622.154165.799078213140.0893701272.2993701273.125.419370127TF-4.87859.12275430.0434016992871.3007995933860.14204579944658171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025168-11727.7717.29422.532165.04810532270.0437008112.1337008113.15.233700811TF-4.2359.7775429.7229145192270.9249528551440.15882877002413171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2025168-11727.93217.72622.829164.953436192030.0618110572.0718110573.095.161811057TF-4.06860.93275429.6824698634270.8775998754520.16321923900227171115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025168-11728.18417.74422.964163.536245045660.0759842932.1759842932.74.875984293TF-3.81658.18475429.0758518657970.1694536538990.17020367703181171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025168-11728.72417.58223.153157.904802477860.0740157882.2540157882.724.974015788TF-3.27659.72475426.6436607938567.3690829860830.18580298253391171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2025168-11728.54417.20422.874158.440584510960.1374016492.3874016492.665.047401649TF-3.45659.54475426.8765626981867.6345721079280.18050765026732171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025168-11727.84219.83223.837165.443824538650.4673230873.0873230872.765.847323087TT-4.15858.84275429.8918688919171.1229549275470.16077046862475171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025168-11727.7720.2123.99167.137164389870.5043309813.4643309812.796.254330981TT-4.2358.7775430.6129340535671.9714247473150.15882877002413171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 04:00:03FORECAST2025168-11726.7820.04823.414167.075006894090.5622050283.3722050282.966.332205028TT-5.2259.7875430.5865206871.9402459111150.13368894767153171115127.5WETL
2025-03-13 00:00:03FORECAST2025168-11726.99619.65223.324166.257598701810.3039371722.6339371723.345.973937172TT-5.00455.99675430.2387807551471.5304665567440.1389268450653171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025168-11728.1320.37224.251161.388492668660.31496082.72496083.626.3449608TT-3.8758.1375428.1523503089769.0988624489080.16869115692831171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025168-11727.7720.4824.125160.489748689510.2082678292.4682678293.76.168267829TT-4.2357.7775427.7644060935768.6518020322760.15882877002413171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025168-11726.79818.42822.613170.682983101010.4322836983.6422836983.747.382283698TT-5.20252.79875432.1128204476873.7543052302030.13412019704914171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025168-11727.30215.81821.56170.173770023610.4358270073.5558270073.77.255827007TT-4.69853.30275431.8982523765673.4977538735290.1465828660493171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 04:00:04FORECAST2025168-11727.21216.21421.713170.267543244750.35433093.41433093.867.2743309TT-4.78853.21275431.9377866253873.5449857632790.14430234744922171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025168-11726.65418.35622.505177.54940657280.3181104083.9181104083.947.858110408TT-5.34651.65475434.9791989956577.2302986531890.13069682211951171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 20:00:03FORECAST2025168-11725.89820.55223.225173.855669864940.3181104083.9181104083.87.718110408TT-6.10249.89875433.4434682581575.3566045226020.11371419712897171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025168-11725.44820.64223.045175.198765547890.3791340634.1591340633.787.939134063TT-6.55247.44875434.0035497451876.0368861587590.10438286803197171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025168-11725.82621.00223.414173.278338242480.413386053.713386053.567.27338605TT-6.17446.82675433.202128619575.0645449702930.11218263069742171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025168-11728.05821.2924.674172.750939758560.413386053.713386053.627.33338605TT-3.94255.05875432.9813528022674.7979355945230.16668791150006171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025168-11728.61620.67824.647172.155313503810.4574805623.7674805623.497.257480562TT-3.38455.61675432.7316600855274.4970546050450.18261434769332171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 00:00:03FORECAST2025168-11729.2121.5625.385176.850173572490.7196854283.9896854283.377.359685428TT-2.7956.2175434.6895861027676.8749287524280.20057389446093171115127.5WETL
2025-03-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025168-11730.221.90226.051176.492160362320.7188980263.9788980263.427.398898026TT-1.859.275434.5411026311176.6930979695870.2327563334054171115127.5WETL
2025-03-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025168-11730.32623.28826.807176.972535706780.8515752634.1315752633.427.551575263TT-1.67464.32675434.7403039882476.9370939707340.23704826956856171115127.5WETL
2025-03-10 12:00:03FORECAST2025168-11732.03624.6228.328170.764087412930.740157883.310157882.886.19015788TT0.03600000000000161.03675432.1469699100973.7951829449580.299355457302681721151210WETL
2025-03-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025168-11731.17225.5228.346171.110011819930.740157883.340157882.956.29015788TT-0.82864.17275432.2925445136673.9695824013980.266958915609541721151210WETL
2025-03-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025168-11731.49625.50228.499166.830927493840.7035436872.9735436873.116.083543687TT-0.50465.49675430.4827605745171.8178382167560.278898166556041721151210WETL
2025-03-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025168-11731.38823.70227.545172.935910805370.8082681532.9582681533.246.198268153TT-0.61264.38875433.0588177473174.8914210794260.274889729297791721151210WETL
2025-03-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025168-11731.0123.55827.284169.374738208730.8082681532.9582681533.236.188268153TT-0.9958.0175431.5610029402773.0955318941050.261087503898611721151210WETL
2025-03-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025168-11730.81224.24227.527170.316168724390.8433075423.0233075423.346.363307542TT-1.18856.81275431.9582831398673.5694798331450.254002443526411721151210WETL
2025-03-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025168-11730.52425.21427.869166.047138337930.5425199782.6125199782.875.482519978TT-1.47659.52475430.1491302503971.4250321366250.24387958601393171115127.5WETL
2025-03-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025168-11730.70425.37628.04166.038597743350.5807089752.6807089752.95.580708975TT-1.29660.70475430.1454911728171.420754179960.250180760698331721151210WETL
2025-03-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025168-11731.06425.17828.121168.901446727290.539370372.949370372.965.90937037TT-0.93663.06475431.3609165473572.8574828664580.263037250650091721151210WETL
2025-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025168-11732.8125.57429.192175.187900571840.8775595293.2675595292.966.227559529TT0.8158.8175433.99902662676.0313783248320.32980375901541721151210WETL
2025-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025168-11731.8224.22428.022175.922510518080.8767721273.2667721273.026.286772127TT-0.1856.8275434.3045658276576.4039495498660.291091104058141721151210WETL
2025-03-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025168-11731.62221.23626.429176.059044799290.7779531763.0579531763.036.087953176TT-0.37854.62275434.3612904090676.4732338872080.283610284753361721151210WETL
2025-03-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025168-11731.4621.25426.357174.223713552960.6307090022.5607090023.446.000709002TT-0.5454.4675433.5971354792275.5429031291170.277558869483371721151210WETL
2025-03-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025168-11731.4621.25426.357173.450756298470.614173562.544173563.375.91417356TT-0.5458.4675433.2742409203575.1517447722810.277558869483371721151210WETL
2025-03-08 03:00:05FORECAST2025168-11731.0123.75627.383172.985598692540.7216539332.4216539333.325.741653933TT-0.9955.0175433.0796205841174.9165374482780.261087503898611721151210WETL
2025-03-07 23:00:03FORECAST2025168-11722.5520.17421.362184.888257790030.0771653963.5471653963.076.617165396TT-9.4533.5575437.9880234593980.9788425903050.057172866390998171115127.5WETL
2025-03-07 19:00:03FORECAST2025168-11723.77420.17421.974183.85778455870.0811024063.6311024063.126.751102406TT-8.22643.77475437.5689212907980.4504524602630.074524277109963171115127.5WETL
2025-03-07 15:00:03FORECAST2025168-11723.70221.07422.388182.685121742640.0992126523.4692126523.046.509212652TT-8.29841.70275437.090653060879.8499591669850.073403701575903171115127.5WETL
2025-03-07 11:00:03FORECAST2025168-11725.8824.09824.989179.548699988380.8098429573.1298429572.75.829842957TT-6.1244.8875435.804447103778.2481219266220.11332991983247171115127.5WETL
2025-03-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025168-11723.21620.31821.767181.734149928010.8098429573.1298429572.765.889842957TT-8.78443.21675436.7017536653679.3636219744430.066172999817683171115127.5WETL
2025-03-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025168-11724.8923.4524.17166.2770203455601.412.844.25TF-7.1145.8975430.2470514425771.5401977263340.093596713438756171114126WETL