MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 13, 2025

[ Wednesday, March 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, March 14, 2025 ]

DAY 164 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/14/2025 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.146
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 107

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.97 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.61 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 155 in
SWE DAY: 71
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 65.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-14 04:00:04OBSERVATION2025164-12126.7099819.7900623.25002155.175214583330.970000000000031.615.386.99TT-5.29002106.7099871422.81095957229 65.6097813798160.1461239860990217 1115127.5WETL
2025-03-14 00:00:01FORECAST2025164-12022.24413.7317.987153.125379718150.6503940521.2903940523.715.000394052TF-9.75697.24472422.5645094468464.7053509644590.055742710356291161114126WETL
2025-03-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025164-12022.29815.58418.941150.232893871350.6783468231.3183468233.715.028346823TF-9.70297.29872421.27159100363.2888502221670.056479265960152161114126WETL
2025-03-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025164-12024.06216.48420.273150.070331238970.6862208431.3262208433.715.036220843TF-7.93899.06272421.1986444689363.2094200928580.084993289406103161114126WETL
2025-03-13 04:00:02FORECAST2025164-12024.99816.73620.867150.41923658260.8330713161.4730713163.715.183071316TF-7.00299.99872421.3551712999363.3799231970670.10393812126426161114126WETL
2025-03-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.50216.37620.939151.277788449570.7787405781.7587405785.387.138740578TT-6.498101.50271421.0690645165463.6983968645940.11532242881234171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 20:00:01FORECAST2025164-12125.5216.59221.056145.838884686450.8488193561.9888193565.387.368819356TT-6.48101.5271418.6092257699261.0495026057440.11574474052775171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 16:00:01FORECAST2025164-12125.55617.31221.434145.980523009150.8771658282.0171658285.387.397165828TT-6.444101.55671418.6737160577961.1182080403010.11659264611897171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025164-12124.99816.62820.813148.530438216760.728346851.868346855.387.24834685TT-7.002100.99871419.8307750427662.3576489939840.10393812126426171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.10616.32220.714148.358543523220.7066932951.7966932955.387.176693295TT-6.894102.10671419.7530108142562.2739453238910.10630649866908171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025164-12125.7917.31221.551148.794060228170.7976382261.9676382265.387.347638226TT-6.21102.7971419.9499702685862.4860611689630.12221112407728171115127.5WETL
2025-03-12 00:00:01FORECAST2025164-12125.75417.67221.713152.306936229790.7692917541.9892917545.387.369291754TT-6.24698.75471421.5307032021664.2020499315110.12133462345957171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.03418.17621.605149.578486701350.6874019461.8774019465.387.257401946TT-6.96697.03471420.3041726214962.8684620949840.10472330479778171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 16:00:01FORECAST2025164-12124.00817.94220.975149.697505017160.6893704511.9093704515.387.289370451TT-7.99296.00871420.3578528840662.9265217911160.083984762403613171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025164-12123.918.12221.011150.465100993340.6366145171.7966145175.387.176614517TT-8.194.971420.7036684770963.3012199656740.081994617383814171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 08:00:01FORECAST2025164-12124.74618.7721.758150.103911358480.6153546631.7653546635.387.145354663TT-7.25498.74671420.5410301296863.124853509190.098560753402227171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025164-12124.819.18421.992149.263406486930.5342522571.6542522575.387.034252257TT-7.298.871420.161985126862.7148091763390.099695606221205171115127.5WETL
2025-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.26819.2222.244150.775340080320.5031498781.5631498785.366.923149878TT-6.73298.26871420.8432454754163.4527834570620.1099315138668171115127.5WETL
2025-03-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.48418.55422.019150.838204769320.5141735061.6341735065.366.994173506TT-6.51699.48471420.871514987663.4835037592750.11490121002403171115127.5WETL
2025-03-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.86219.6722.766150.790715298480.5208664231.6308664235.366.990866423TT-6.138101.86271420.8501599474163.4602966519520.12397739694065171115127.5WETL
2025-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025164-12124.74617.09620.921149.848086022610.4496065421.3296065425.366.689606542TT-7.25499.74671420.4257454661562.9999932727330.098560753402227171114126WETL
2025-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025164-12126.00617.56421.785150.131720286640.5070868881.4070868885.366.767086888TT-5.994103.00671420.5535573808963.1384290422610.12756318355846171114126WETL
2025-03-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025164-12126.54618.37422.46147.397690652570.6279530951.5579530955.366.917953095TT-5.454103.54671419.317700291561.8064606727160.14164684421518171115127.5WETL
2025-03-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025164-12126.0617.621.83150.693003026990.5818900781.4118900785.416.821890078TT-5.94101.0671420.8062126412463.4125518753220.12892620891864171114126WETL
2025-03-09 20:00:01FORECAST2025164-12124.2615.5319.895146.863208053690.4866144361.3666144365.446.806614436TT-7.7495.2671419.0750948554961.5467128458820.088768671717352171114126WETL
2025-03-09 16:00:01FORECAST2025164-12124.63816.2520.444147.325481785590.4964569611.4664569615.456.916456961TT-7.36294.63871419.2849434147861.7713562940270.096319381594707171114126WETL
2025-03-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025164-12125.10617.76221.434147.653035314620.2980316571.2080316575.436.638031657TT-6.89494.10671419.4334868331861.9306274435130.10630649866908171114126WETL
2025-03-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.30418.98622.145147.704956436880.2877954311.1977954315.486.677795431TT-6.69696.30471419.4570213826761.955881070470.11074894118187171114126WETL
2025-03-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025164-12125.5217.36621.443148.525495406510.3338584481.2438584485.516.753858448TT-6.4898.5271419.8285394162562.3552418025880.11574474052775171114126WETL
2025-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.23216.2520.741149.908766334570.2173229521.0773229525.566.637322952TT-6.76890.23271420.4530971088263.0296050891320.10911841136611171114126WETL
2025-03-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025164-12123.61216.50220.057150.162445262140.2181103541.1181103545.576.688110354TT-8.38888.61271420.5673972122163.1534287629190.076860876440299171114126WETL
2025-03-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025164-12124.67415.7120.192150.476605303650.2114174371.1214174375.66.721417437TT-7.32688.67471420.7088462462663.3068390043510.097062318824844171114126WETL
2025-03-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025164-12124.83616.21420.525151.677830812030.2653544741.3653544745.586.945354474TT-7.16486.83671421.248652518363.8940818464640.10045744291085171114126WETL
2025-03-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025164-12124.99816.80820.903151.020138109320.2625985671.3525985675.516.862598567TT-7.00291.99871420.9533028428563.5724259329010.10393812126426171114126WETL
2025-03-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025164-12125.17815.90820.543151.173295477220.2657481751.3357481755.516.845748175TT-6.82288.17871421.0221252089663.6473021366610.10790684982428171114126WETL
2025-03-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025164-12122.60415.96219.283151.816936398480.2303150851.1203150855.466.580315085TT-9.39679.60471421.3110573937463.962154004320.06079843037545171114126WETL
2025-03-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025164-12123.84616.93420.39151.438556674790.2295276831.1195276835.56.619527683TT-8.15484.84671421.1412589161863.7770244064690.081012923122701171114126WETL
2025-03-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025164-12123.01816.84419.931151.308490512990.2043308191.0543308195.496.544330819TT-8.98284.01871421.0828538283463.7134109936670.067046534660723171114126WETL
2025-03-07 11:00:03FORECAST2025164-12124.92618.39221.659151.254362372420.1602363071.1202363075.446.560236307TT-7.07484.92671421.0585423674563.686941347250.10238053884365171114126WETL
2025-03-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025164-12126.67219.29222.982151.310886163570.1720473371.1220473375.486.602047337TT-5.32886.67271421.08392974963.7145825595580.14507867777628171114126WETL
2025-03-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025164-12126.09618.44622.271151.731280296270.2826773181.1726773185.476.642677318TT-5.90488.09671421.2726333758963.9202360159070.12984046805499171114126WETL
2025-03-06 23:00:03FORECAST2025164-12125.9718.37422.172157.275126660860.3964569071.6664569075.326.986456907TT-6.0382.9771423.742359265466.6441332250390.12666006852648171115127.5WETL
2025-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2025164-12125.2517.65421.452157.878214871570.4074805351.6474805355.326.967480535TT-6.7576.2571424.0089373818566.9417741234390.10952442249141171115127.5WETL
2025-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025164-12125.80818.28422.046158.435291073110.4661419841.7361419845.337.066141984TT-6.19277.80871424.2548146404467.2169350467260.12265103227048171115127.5WETL
2025-03-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025164-12125.19618.4121.803162.28722032540.8118114622.2918114625.257.541811462TT-6.80477.19671425.9454577933569.1255043555130.10830962600665171115127.5WETL
2025-03-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025164-12124.51219.02221.767162.079458913030.8118114622.2618114625.297.551811462TT-7.48881.51271425.8546910288869.0222978975360.093751908690555171115127.5WETL
2025-03-06 03:00:04FORECAST2025164-12125.08818.30221.695161.544075855170.7708665582.1708665585.37.470866558TT-6.91280.08871425.6205721142168.7564819871390.10590909425581171115127.5WETL
2025-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025164-12126.61819.02222.82154.86941988680.4161419571.3461419575.396.736141957TT-5.38275.61871422.6749118417865.4594183976390.1436011179287171114126WETL
2025-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025164-12127.82421.79424.809155.02297036630.4342522031.4342522035.396.824252203TT-4.17680.82471422.7432394930265.534912688480.17902712191584171114126WETL
2025-03-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025164-12127.75222.80225.277155.318015173890.4858270341.4758270345.366.835827034TT-4.24876.75271422.874455214965.6800210517170.17676961014252171114126WETL
2025-03-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025164-12126.65419.09422.874153.515211707240.2720473911.3520473915.116.462047391TT-5.34679.65471422.0711542990164.7943426077330.14458502823132171114126WETL
2025-03-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025164-12126.8718.2322.55153.490056421750.2720473911.3520473915.136.482047391TT-5.1382.8771422.0599194570764.7820008508240.15058345319679171114126WETL
2025-03-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025164-12125.86218.26622.064154.979537113550.4271655851.4371655855.146.577165585TT-6.13879.86271422.7239150523665.5135566816440.12397739694065171114126WETL
2025-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025164-12128.52623.88226.204153.987263693920.5976381181.4776381185.166.637638118TT-3.47491.52671422.2818488651665.0260264143550.20197664846768171114126WETL
2025-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2025164-12127.96823.1825.574153.473980641690.5996066231.4796066235.196.669606623TT-4.03297.96871422.0527393236764.7741139447320.18359615295042171114126WETL
2025-03-04 15:00:03FORECAST2025164-12126.54621.6524.098152.133394475950.4082679371.2582679375.196.448267937TT-5.45494.54671421.4529431750564.1170668570970.14164684421518171114126WETL
2025-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025164-12126.58220.4823.531155.00719992010.6303153011.3403153015.226.560315301TT-5.41890.58271422.7362231098165.5271582490510.14262172407581171114126WETL
2025-03-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025164-12126.58220.4823.531155.101439142860.6303153011.3403153015.26.540315301TT-5.41884.58271422.7781466294465.5734989803760.14262172407581171114126WETL
2025-03-04 03:00:04FORECAST2025164-12125.39413.65819.526151.084041794570.1677166260.8877166265.186.067716626TF-6.60686.39471420.9820216789763.6036653581080.11281147979535171113124.5WETL
2025-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2025164-12121.81213.08217.447152.788755673550.0464567180.9064567184.975.876456718TF-10.18872.81271421.746415695964.4381100639550.050119016360989171113124.5WETL
2025-03-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025164-12121.81213.08217.447152.482283532270.0464567180.9064567184.95.806456718TF-10.18871.81271421.6092374482864.2879392844110.050119016360989171113124.5WETL
2025-03-03 15:00:04FORECAST2025164-12122.35214.05418.203151.171924759730.0374015950.8074015954.855.657401595TF-9.64872.35271421.0215093859163.6466319391150.057223444068178171113124.5WETL
2025-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025164-12119.61617.6918.653163.648443342320.3236222221.7736222225.237.003622222TT-12.38469.61671426.5389651154169.8024376659830.028129886659256171115127.5WETL
2025-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2025164-12119.61617.6918.653163.632854834860.3236222221.7736222225.247.013622222TT-12.38466.61671426.5321799736569.7946782880250.028129886659256171115127.5WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025164-12121.39820.40820.903160.49075758140.1492126791.4792126795.236.709212679TT-10.60269.39871425.1590337062868.2340954120950.045162056116604171114126WETL