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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 12, 2025

[ Tuesday, March 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 13, 2025 ]

DAY 163 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/13/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.366
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 117

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.41 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.70 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 147 in
SWE DAY: 70
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 418.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -122

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-13 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025163-12233.0826.6199829.84999146.755954347830.410000000000080.700000000000086.777.4700000000001TT1.08117.0870418.34535905774 61.3946724155030.3664417119540117 2113126WETL
2025-03-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025163-12128.68824.38626.537147.750149898830.7492130031.0392130035.326.359213003TT-3.312107.68871419.4775039251961.9778640841340.18685061068207161114126WETL
2025-03-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025163-12129.22823.91826.573145.208274287970.9137800211.2037800215.326.523780021TT-2.772108.22871418.3218165809660.7437890827280.20550035102288161114126WETL
2025-03-12 08:00:01FORECAST2025163-12129.71424.20626.96145.121689819080.8555122731.1455122735.326.465512273TT-2.286108.71471418.2823185864860.7018368947140.22319259854101161114126WETL
2025-03-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025163-12129.64224.36827.005145.121529201080.9401579881.2301579885.326.550157988TT-2.358108.64271418.2822453078860.701759076740.22051818130427161114126WETL
2025-03-12 00:00:01FORECAST2025163-12230.48824.83627.662148.622189521730.9570871311.2770871316.778.047087131TT-1.512110.48870419.1944765723862.30160094360.25307996111015172114128WETL
2025-03-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025163-12229.82224.78227.302146.274685157330.854331171.254331176.778.02433117TT-2.178108.82270418.1257329906261.1612099493810.22723857420667171114126WETL
2025-03-11 16:00:01FORECAST2025163-12229.51624.36826.942146.339632134870.8763784261.2763784266.778.046378426TT-2.484108.51670418.1553870646361.1927055182540.21588233606964171114126WETL
2025-03-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025163-12229.37224.4426.906147.388781216230.8181106781.2181106786.777.988110678TT-2.628108.37270418.6337398097761.7019166865560.21065389265688171114126WETL
2025-03-11 08:00:01FORECAST2025163-12230.03825.32227.68147.242524589880.7964571231.2064571236.777.976457123TT-1.962111.03870418.5671314870961.6308811505040.23545300594263171114126WETL
2025-03-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025163-12230.14625.57427.86146.732065375080.7574807241.1774807246.777.947480724TT-1.854111.14670418.3344637123561.3830798780890.23962077673481171114126WETL
2025-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025163-12230.34425.80828.076148.284941957950.7842523921.1042523926.777.874252392TT-1.656110.34470419.0413302623862.1375193359410.24736499542556171114126WETL
2025-03-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025163-12230.88425.98828.436148.287659980410.8370083261.1570083266.777.927008326TT-1.116110.88470419.042565058562.1388414047120.26914665053791172114128WETL
2025-03-10 16:00:01FORECAST2025163-12231.56825.7928.679148.215085676030.8551185721.1451185726.777.915118572TT-0.432112.56870419.0095916664962.1035425279250.29805046888178172114128WETL
2025-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025163-12231.47825.41228.445147.566944446550.6952759660.9152759666.777.685275966TT-0.522112.47870418.7148456430461.788470365950.2941677023826172113126WETL
2025-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025163-12231.13625.35828.247147.600822087480.6677168960.9377168966.777.707716896TT-0.864114.13670418.7302637202861.8049311580190.27963049594351172113126WETL
2025-03-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025163-12231.58624.87228.229144.264510832490.7342523650.9742523656.777.744252365TT-0.414113.58670417.205486528860.1879454307080.2988298132293172113126WETL
2025-03-10 00:00:01FORECAST2025163-12231.06424.40427.734147.624280661960.6307090020.9207090026.777.690709002TT-0.936112.06470418.740939191461.8163299318450.27661500540667172113126WETL
2025-03-09 20:00:01FORECAST2025163-12230.39824.22427.311144.146672885650.7039373880.9439373886.837.773937388TT-1.602108.39870417.1513950511860.1309856862350.24950000259135172113126WETL
2025-03-09 16:00:01FORECAST2025163-12231.40624.11627.761144.562848636630.7712602591.0412602596.837.871260259TT-0.594107.40670417.3423609931160.3322005618990.29107840216577172114128WETL
2025-03-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025163-12229.42624.00826.717145.992237600580.5877955930.9577955936.837.787795593TT-2.574106.42670417.9967136375261.024275533630.21260581341876171113124.5WETL
2025-03-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025163-12229.26422.83826.051146.124283838910.527559340.947559346.897.83755934TT-2.736108.26470418.0570426225261.0882859570290.20678168264487171113124.5WETL
2025-03-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025163-12228.95822.06425.511146.672412066090.5362207620.9362207626.937.866220762TT-3.042109.95870418.3072539878161.3541339271340.19604126056489171113124.5WETL
2025-03-08 23:00:01FORECAST2025163-12227.96820.78624.377148.604793795270.4716537980.9216537986.957.871653798TT-4.032101.96870419.1865802684362.2931353225360.16367138365333171113124.5WETL
2025-03-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025163-12228.38220.85824.62148.801067627170.5228349280.9628349286.967.922834928TT-3.618102.38270419.2756530535762.3886648044480.17676217021864171113124.5WETL
2025-03-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025163-12228.74219.14823.945149.101043559660.5342522570.9942522576.977.964252257TT-3.258100.74270419.4117020492862.5347224566790.18866713610987171114126WETL
2025-03-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025163-12227.39218.87823.135149.981684439730.7192917271.1592917276.978.129291727TT-4.60899.39270419.8105034511162.963886453090.1465307320077171114126WETL
2025-03-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025163-12227.51819.07623.297149.376249896630.7228350361.1528350366.98.052835036TT-4.482103.51870419.5364260727662.6687780217820.15017357660367171114126WETL
2025-03-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025163-12228.14819.5823.864149.466585825910.7169295211.1069295216.928.026929521TT-3.852100.14870419.5773474813862.7127936179330.16928391441864171114126WETL
2025-03-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025163-12226.74420.19223.468150.176057790820.6161420650.9661420656.837.796142065TT-5.25693.74470419.898406014963.0586872879690.12873521061858171113124.5WETL
2025-03-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025163-12228.9422.33425.637149.879745913380.6169294670.9669294676.877.836929467TT-3.0697.9470419.7643858615762.9141794964180.19542016789861171113124.5WETL
2025-03-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025163-12227.5921.18224.386149.853759377110.5807089750.9407089756.857.790708975TT-4.4197.5970419.7526274894262.9015092377080.15228200436412171113124.5WETL
2025-03-07 11:00:03FORECAST2025163-12228.20221.16424.683150.164787615330.7759846711.0159846716.837.845984671TT-3.79897.20270419.8933104245963.0531897810070.17099142547921171114126WETL
2025-03-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025163-12228.54422.60425.574150.191989062550.7724413621.0024413626.887.882441362TT-3.45696.54470419.9056087802463.0664586012250.18205958002821171114126WETL
2025-03-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025163-12228.7623.30626.033149.898556353570.7161421190.9561421196.857.806142119TT-3.2498.7670419.7728967139262.9233512137740.18927505029987171113124.5WETL
2025-03-06 23:00:03FORECAST2025163-12228.74222.85625.799154.422038959820.9511816161.4111816166.638.041181616TT-3.25893.74270421.8078014880965.1364207549510.18866713610987171114126WETL
2025-03-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025163-12226.6920.76823.729154.674060420950.9185044331.3585044336.658.008504433TT-5.3187.6970421.9204881103865.2601550708220.12732281972778171114126WETL
2025-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025163-12226.54620.9323.738154.840055055140.9318902671.4118902676.648.051890267TT-5.45488.54670421.9946700736965.3416779471850.12360910628504171114126WETL
2025-03-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025163-12225.2520.5722.91155.969363986181.0673234111.6573234116.528.177323411TT-6.7589.2570422.4985218014765.8968257304790.093561228440552171115127.5WETL
2025-03-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025163-12226.76221.00223.882155.887190782761.0555123811.6255123816.568.185512381TT-5.23893.76270422.4619081951965.8564000812740.12920840687815171115127.5WETL
2025-03-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025163-12226.88821.54224.215155.584145159761.0161422811.5761422816.578.146142281TT-5.11291.88870422.3268152144965.7073565231890.13255443712336171115127.5WETL
2025-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025163-12228.74221.72225.232151.484171934210.673228711.233228716.547.77322871TT-3.25885.74270420.4888544195363.6974059193060.18866713610987171114126WETL
2025-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025163-12228.23822.13625.187151.712419141520.7216539331.2916539336.557.841653933TT-3.76290.23870420.5916783509363.8089809934130.17213585043815171114126WETL
2025-03-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025163-12228.4923.23425.862151.65700028870.7114177071.2714177076.537.801417707TT-3.5186.4970420.5667179858163.7818868709930.18028287737865171114126WETL
2025-03-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025163-12229.33621.23625.286151.332810211820.6307090021.2907090026.357.640709002TT-2.66490.33670420.4206340347463.6234360195130.20935846225515171114126WETL
2025-03-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025163-12228.97621.88425.43151.281701428250.6307090021.2907090026.377.660709002TT-3.02492.97670420.3975928227763.5984631185690.19666354655406171114126WETL
2025-03-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025163-12227.75221.52424.638151.226057811560.5598428221.2298428226.377.599842822TT-4.24890.75270420.3725037850363.5712765597840.15709729700967171114126WETL
2025-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025163-12231.11824.0827.599148.944426453680.4102364421.1202364426.377.490236442TT-0.882100.11870419.3406839499462.4584576596180.27887513123302172114128WETL
2025-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2025163-12230.68624.49427.59148.319732098890.4106301431.1206301436.47.520630143TT-1.314106.68670419.0571347606362.1544419618240.2610498474176172114128WETL
2025-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025163-12230.12823.61226.87148.441940621570.3692915381.0792915386.417.489291538TT-1.872105.12870419.1126406961762.2138937239720.23892336841085171114126WETL
2025-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025163-12228.9421.77625.358149.193424335740.3350395510.9150395516.467.375039551TT-3.06100.9470419.4535789101662.5797157874890.19542016789861171113124.5WETL
2025-03-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025163-12228.9421.77625.358149.287663558490.3350395510.9150395516.447.355039551TT-3.0694.9470419.4962880945162.6256207210910.19542016789861171113124.5WETL
2025-03-04 03:00:04FORECAST2025163-12229.01223.95426.483149.429204528070.4248033790.9048033796.457.354803379TT-2.98898.01270419.5604152097962.6945790962640.19791169510561171113124.5WETL
2025-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025163-12227.57219.97623.774152.020192347340.4854333331.0354333336.247.275433333TT-4.42887.57270420.7302338928563.9594910827310.15175306907229171114126WETL
2025-03-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025163-12227.57219.97623.774151.713720206060.4854333331.0354333336.177.205433333TT-4.42886.57270420.5922643014763.8096171070650.15175306907229171114126WETL
2025-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025163-12227.44619.23823.342150.639552726240.3956695050.9156695056.157.065669505TT-4.55487.44670420.107839916663.2848571018230.14808464469339171113124.5WETL
2025-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025163-12226.16819.99423.081159.195314489360.9334650711.9134650716.228.133465071TT-5.83287.16870423.9298742798967.4876496574230.114222531113171115127.5WETL
2025-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2025163-12226.16819.99423.081159.17972598190.9334650711.9134650716.238.143465071TT-5.83284.16870423.9229858296267.4799447217890.114222531113171115127.5WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025163-12226.49221.86624.179158.555416617690.929134361.769134366.248.00913436TT-5.50885.49270423.6468836566367.1715081369640.12223615568254171115127.5WETL
2025-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025163-12218.98614.3616.673160.228615253720.2232284671.2432284676.447.683228467TT-13.01464.98670424.3858748105567.9987610541310.017689465511094171114126WETL
2025-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025163-12219.45414.3616.907159.561834146860.2188977561.2188977566.417.628897756TT-12.54670.45470424.0917581305867.668858773880.020415231560081171114126WETL
2025-03-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025163-12223.77419.65221.713158.669930252120.2625985671.2025985676.387.582598567TT-8.22678.77470423.6975603547167.2280623494740.066317902789797171114126WETL
2025-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2025163-12216.66415.29615.98182.274942019040.303149772.293149778.2210.51314977TT-15.33659.66470433.8352217304679.0772898867370.0082953167120676171115127.5WETL
2025-03-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025163-12216.66415.29615.98181.577000232170.303149772.243149778.210.44314977TT-15.33659.66470433.5441143052978.7216397438670.0082953167120676171115127.5WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:06FORECAST2025163-12216.66414.73815.701170.960029708950.0330708841.4230708848.249.663070884TT-15.33664.66470429.0516091799773.3506758520810.0082953167120676171114126WETL