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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 10, 2025

[ Sunday, March 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 11, 2025 ]

DAY 161 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/11/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.307
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 120

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 143 in
SWE DAY: 68
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 415.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.17 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-11 04:00:02OBSERVATION2025161-12430.3499421.9900226.16998142.557129583330.0600000000000590.0600000000000596.536.5900000000001TF-1.65006120.3499468415.0356569987 59.1662919364680.3068245366791116 2111122WETL
2025-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025161-12327.21218.08622.649144.14713945020.0362204920.4762204926.526.996220492TT-4.788118.21269416.4634587087260.0320162583990.18915091153437161112123WETL
2025-03-10 12:00:01FORECAST2025161-12327.26618.33822.802144.16062268950.0401575020.4801575026.527.000157502TT-4.734118.26669416.4696723371760.0385272954180.19090811651874161112123WETL
2025-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025161-12328.61618.55423.585144.1610219650.03937010.47937016.526.9993701TT-3.384119.61669416.4698563364160.0387201070720.2380136736673161112123WETL
2025-03-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025161-12328.81418.60823.711140.564611321840.0381889970.4781889976.526.998188997TT-3.186119.81469414.8049202748758.3068923928220.24542049286052161112123WETL
2025-03-10 00:00:01FORECAST2025161-12428.8518.06823.459144.049124777650.0897638280.0897638286.536.619763828TF-3.15118.8568415.7273406565259.8851595677130.24678035088461161111121.5WETL
2025-03-09 20:00:01FORECAST2025161-12428.5817.3322.955140.255559792130.0586614490.0586614496.536.588661449TF-3.42118.5868413.9635035331458.0606829215510.2366802462073161111121.5WETL
2025-03-09 16:00:01FORECAST2025161-12427.89617.43822.667140.312144714990.0720472830.0720472836.536.602047283TF-4.104117.89668413.9899380358958.087816096240.21213923484989161111121.5WETL
2025-03-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025161-12428.54418.08623.315141.99439799650.051181130.051181136.536.58118113TF-3.456118.54468414.7740951165858.895597940620.23535093166374161111121.5WETL
2025-03-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025161-12429.24618.44623.846142.16170282160.0409449040.0409449046.536.570944904TF-2.754119.24668414.8518987165458.9760523403170.26200087990578162111122WETL
2025-03-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025161-12428.90418.62623.765142.585053826470.0330708840.0330708846.536.563070884TF-3.096118.90468415.0486266636259.1797307734360.24882766661205161111121.5WETL
2025-03-08 23:00:01FORECAST2025161-12428.50818.57223.54144.473936380840.0625984590.0725984596.536.602598459TF-3.492111.50868415.9238028550560.0901490329560.23402574194589161111121.5WETL
2025-03-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025161-12429.08418.62623.855144.481174657440.0633858610.0733858616.536.603385861TF-2.916112.08468415.9271484971860.0936429867920.25571674220666162111122WETL
2025-03-08 15:00:01FORECAST2025161-12427.42818.06822.748144.640594860530.0783464990.0883464996.536.618346499TF-4.572110.42868416.0008193588260.1706059745290.19623939779353161111121.5WETL
2025-03-08 11:00:01FORECAST2025161-12427.517.92422.712144.578194258990.0645669640.0745669646.536.604566964TF-4.5110.568415.9719865034660.1404786709960.1986374876628161111121.5WETL
2025-03-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025161-12427.6817.9622.82143.994540424010.0637795620.0637795626.536.593779562TF-4.32112.6868415.7020817123359.8588302094690.20470938265661161111121.5WETL
2025-03-08 03:00:03FORECAST2025161-12428.32817.61822.973144.035799035770.0405512030.0405512036.536.570551203TF-3.672112.32868415.7211744841459.8787315429120.22746206927017161111121.5WETL
2025-03-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025161-12428.32817.54622.937145.362361980190.0771653960.0771653966.536.607165396TF-3.672107.32868416.3339875419260.5192918017240.22746206927017161111121.5WETL
2025-03-07 19:00:01FORECAST2025161-12429.40819.27424.341145.361849579720.0795276020.0795276026.536.609527602TF-2.592108.40868416.3337512341160.5190441218530.26836314593119162111122WETL
2025-03-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025161-12429.60618.15823.882145.480447168910.094488240.094488246.536.62448824TF-2.394108.60668416.3884376281260.5763761021010.27624322856372162112124WETL
2025-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025161-12429.5717.67223.621145.235263689090.0649606650.0649606656.536.594960665TF-2.43108.5768416.2753631856360.4578621395350.27480209073055162111122WETL
2025-03-07 07:00:03FORECAST2025161-12428.3117.63622.973145.187288173240.0476378210.0476378216.536.577637821TF-3.69108.3168416.2532294565460.4346775781480.2268114439146161111121.5WETL
2025-03-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025161-12429.17418.71623.945145.16976330190.066929170.066929176.536.59692917TF-2.826110.17468416.2451436024260.4262089723280.25919820094582162111122WETL
2025-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025161-12429.42619.34624.386146.811837013050.1405512570.1405512576.536.670551257TT-2.574106.42668417.0012240378561.2207157376880.26907482488111162112124WETL
2025-03-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025161-12427.84218.93223.387146.898671301850.1153543930.1153543936.536.645354393TF-4.158102.84268417.0411185081961.2627861870880.21026716816165161112123WETL
2025-03-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025161-12428.36419.20223.783146.893175777890.1358268450.1458268456.536.675826845TT-3.636104.36468417.0385939482161.2601234870.22876646286892161112123WETL
2025-03-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025161-12427.71620.6624.188146.56842149630.181102460.181102466.536.71110246TT-4.284103.71668416.8893441897961.1028131165240.20593685105689161112123WETL
2025-03-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025161-12428.83218.15823.495146.825262811760.1799213570.1899213576.536.719921357TT-3.168105.83268417.0073928574661.2272200507420.24609991884103161112123WETL
2025-03-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025161-12427.60820.78624.197146.747898897210.1814961610.1914961616.536.721496161TT-4.392104.60868416.9718431818361.189741886230.20226751427781161112123WETL
2025-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025161-12427.69821.12824.413145.295326583050.2980316570.3480316576.546.888031657TT-4.30299.69868416.3030696814460.4868904668930.2053225730944161112123WETL
2025-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025161-12429.4820.49824.989145.133785030520.2905513380.3405513386.546.880551338TT-2.52101.4868416.2285423494760.4088237889130.27121552158064162112124WETL
2025-03-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025161-12428.11222.33425.223145.13816239880.2807088130.3407088136.546.880708813TT-3.888100.11268416.2305622551560.4109389399320.21972410943998161112123WETL
2025-03-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025161-12428.1321.39824.764144.039388730750.2137796430.2237796436.546.763779643TT-3.87100.1368415.7228355512659.8804631142170.22036312089949161112123WETL
2025-03-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025161-12429.46221.97425.718144.193576620650.2137796430.2137796436.576.783779643TT-2.538101.46268415.7941689438959.9548483580310.27050101476941162112124WETL
2025-03-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025161-12429.24621.81225.529144.266462738970.2212599620.2212599626.576.791259962TT-2.754100.24668415.8278792107559.9900172419830.26200087990578162112124WETL
2025-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025161-12432.19824.92628.562143.12100836170.2405513110.2405513116.576.810551311TT0.198103.19868415.2973773679359.4377794188650.3884427213005162112124WETL
2025-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2025161-12436.75227.82432.288142.723904189160.2405513110.2405513116.66.840551311TT4.752106.75268415.1131033010959.2465627832110.60349604565603163112125WETL
2025-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025161-12436.53627.06831.802142.839206156620.2334646930.2334646936.616.843464693TT4.536107.53668415.1666277125359.3020715251780.59348521409991163112125WETL
2025-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025161-12434.6126.7830.695144.443419537680.2090552310.2090552316.616.819055231TT2.61106.6168415.9096968271360.0754188285930.50227107201411163112125WETL
2025-03-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025161-12431.22623.4527.338144.347827569050.2090552310.2090552316.596.799055231TT-0.774103.22668415.8655035613760.0292819999930.3446247904404162112124WETL
2025-03-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025161-12431.83824.3528.094144.236303102110.1838583670.1838583676.636.813858367TT-0.162103.83868415.8139309547259.9754641792660.3720133373428162112124WETL
2025-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025161-12429.94822.33426.141144.947023647790.1826772640.1826772646.356.532677264TF-2.05296.94868416.1423417053360.3185938440080.29011578307476162112124WETL
2025-03-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025161-12429.44422.44225.943144.643477249270.1826772640.1826772646.286.462677264TF-2.55695.44468416.0021510864960.1719976763260.26978744851313162112124WETL
2025-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025161-12429.80422.9126.357144.291818670280.1519685860.1519685866.266.411968586TF-2.19696.80468415.8396050179460.002252883170.2842350515433162112124WETL
2025-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025161-12432.01824.56628.292146.471473673730.4555120570.5955120576.26.795512057TT0.01800000000000197.01868416.8447652853861.0558670645320.38020101895928162113126WETL
2025-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2025161-12433.31424.56628.94146.455885166270.4555120570.5955120576.216.805512057TT1.31499.31468416.8375962960361.0483191361160.44052833856039162113126WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025161-12434.53825.23229.885146.367099196180.4366144090.5666144096.236.796614409TT2.53899.53868416.7967591565361.0053325921120.49882860031737162113126WETL
2025-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025161-12426.22219.36422.793151.108497639250.4562994590.5562994596.316.866299459TT-5.77890.22268418.9647322043563.3091312472280.15871553029045161113124.5WETL
2025-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025161-12427.60819.56223.585150.696423184790.4539372530.5539372536.286.833937253TT-4.39293.60868418.7773481386363.1082484753040.20226751427781161113124.5WETL
2025-03-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025161-12428.56219.81424.188149.920975981490.4035435250.4835435256.336.813543525TT-3.43894.56268418.4241940553662.7305635470460.23601507407219161112123WETL
2025-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2025161-12428.5818.1423.36163.823609447140.8362209242.2562209246.458.706220924TT-3.4288.5868424.6513711041969.5679203709670.2366802462073161115127.5WETL
2025-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2025161-12428.5818.1423.36163.193414515770.7956697212.2456697216.48.645669721TT-3.4287.5868424.3738307989469.2550144792160.2366802462073161115127.5WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:06FORECAST2025161-12428.6719.6724.17162.648186429490.7181106242.1781106246.418.588110624TT-3.3389.6768424.1333515134568.9845204279240.24002150005689161115127.5WETL
2025-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2025161-12432.34225.8829.111160.725411097670.5413388751.5513388756.217.761338875TT0.34286.34268423.2826256639468.0322740203370.395072628565411621151210WETL
2025-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2025161-12432.34225.8829.111160.64173108180.5413388751.5513388756.27.751338875TT0.34283.34268423.2455072783567.9908909617870.395072628565411621151210WETL
2025-03-01 15:00:04FORECAST2025161-12431.71222.78427.248163.292662693370.7196854281.6396854286.297.929685428TT-0.28886.71268424.4175695620369.3042750276330.366315940443491621151210WETL
2025-03-01 11:00:04FORECAST2025161-12450.19831.65840.928158.730511654250.0917323331.6517323336.428.071732333TT18.198106.19868422.3955862062967.0470675190210.96969057650011651151217.5WETL
2025-03-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025161-12450.19831.65840.928155.91622896350.0917323331.6517323336.438.081732333TT18.198108.19868421.1365372052865.6620207597930.96969057650011651151217.5WETL
2025-03-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025161-12445.42830.6538.039158.300443421030.0917323331.6417323336.468.101732333TT13.428101.42868422.2037651174266.8350432321150.903668273534891651151217.5WETL
2025-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2025161-12436.9143234.457170.554436897820.1322835363.4822835366.499.972283536TT4.91488.91468427.5881067482572.9270487706530.610960046169321631151212.5WETL
2025-02-28 19:00:03FORECAST2025161-12436.9143234.457171.372799268620.1322835363.4822835366.5510.032283536TT4.91478.91468427.9417562514773.3375766927420.610960046169321631151212.5WETL
2025-02-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025161-12431.89229.80430.848170.520724468150.1188977023.4688977026.459.918897702TT-0.10875.89268427.5735223894272.9101468012430.374463764316711621151210WETL
2025-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025161-12437.79636.48237.139166.694487148540.2905513384.0105513386.3810.390551338TT5.79684.79668425.9101102339570.9968673968270.650817714168751631151212.5WETL
2025-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025161-12437.79636.48237.139165.28383771590.2905513384.0105513386.4210.430551338TT5.79689.79668425.2927565914270.2940189622060.650817714168751631151212.5WETL
2025-02-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025161-12438.33638.2138.273174.7028658836303.446.349.78TT6.33689.33668429.3732631843375.0127396121060.674455079596591631151212.5WETL