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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 9, 2025

[ Saturday, March 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, March 10, 2025 ]

DAY 160 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/10/2025 12:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.410
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 68
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 415.55 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 59.70 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-10 00:00:01FORECAST2025160-12432.8123.91828.364143.666454230350.4433073260.4433073266.536.973307326TT0.81122.8168415.5501858121259.7006217503880.40983010423911162112124WETL
2025-03-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025160-12430.12823.39626.762141.768854846610.4976380640.4976380646.537.027638064TT-1.872120.12868414.6691559654358.787171381430.30050455186275162113126WETL
2025-03-09 08:00:01FORECAST2025160-12432.16223.64827.905141.979970073320.5570869150.5570869156.537.087086915TT0.162122.16268414.7673839923358.8886607666180.38237538660778162113126WETL
2025-03-09 04:00:02FORECAST2025160-12434.3423.84629.093142.439199808940.6019688290.6019688296.537.131968829TT2.34124.3468414.980873311359.1095435304770.476191042466162113126WETL
2025-03-08 23:00:01FORECAST2025160-12434.35823.97229.165144.18011015160.610236550.620236556.537.15023655TT2.358117.35868415.7879399381159.9483509799840.47697942896117162113126WETL
2025-03-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025160-12434.2524.09829.174144.191095398260.6200790750.6300790756.537.160079075TT2.25117.2568415.793021253859.9536511935370.4722505693907162113126WETL
2025-03-08 15:00:01FORECAST2025160-12433.94423.55828.751144.267906578710.62992160.63992166.537.1699216TT1.944116.94468415.8285469322559.9907139615810.4588755561306162113126WETL
2025-03-08 11:00:01FORECAST2025160-12433.822.65828.229144.255773885950.6326775070.6426775076.537.172677507TT1.8116.868415.8229359426159.9848594239270.45259657353775162113126WETL
2025-03-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025160-12434.03422.65828.346143.676629262820.5696853470.5696853476.537.099685347TT2.034119.03468415.5548985060359.7055270909990.46280523784649162113126WETL
2025-03-08 03:00:03FORECAST2025160-12433.40422.35227.878143.831814388490.5917326030.5917326036.537.121732603TT1.404117.40468415.6267593510259.7803509058660.43539502228049162113126WETL
2025-03-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025160-12433.2622.60427.932144.955527473670.5019687750.5019687756.537.031968775TT1.26112.2668416.1462675770460.3227017228280.42916834880003162113126WETL
2025-03-07 19:00:01FORECAST2025160-12433.38624.06228.724144.965376443690.5440947820.5440947826.537.074094782TT1.386112.38668416.1508143413160.3274594583360.43461577870732162113126WETL
2025-03-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025160-12431.69423.37827.536144.995319493370.5153546090.5153546096.537.045354609TT-0.306110.69468416.164636812960.3419244765270.36289985144018162113126WETL
2025-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025160-12432.14422.92827.536144.899658198680.5003939710.5003939716.537.030393971TT0.144111.14468416.1204734457860.2957143717670.38162043844888162113126WETL
2025-03-07 07:00:03FORECAST2025160-12432.55822.94627.752144.938875084230.5488191940.5488191946.537.078819194TT0.558112.55868416.1385797642760.3146576301820.39909257480359162113126WETL
2025-03-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025160-12432.64824.04428.346144.830195538660.5232286290.5232286296.537.053228629TT0.648113.64868416.0883983170660.2621640896270.40291910470362162113126WETL
2025-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025160-12433.90826.0629.984146.0805889570.2980316570.2980316576.536.828031657TT1.908110.90868416.6649158393560.8666563035310.45730478617397162112124WETL
2025-03-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025160-12433.56625.10629.336146.25108267010.3224411190.3224411196.536.852441119TT1.566108.56668416.7433834315760.949171022470.44241914861162162112124WETL
2025-03-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025160-12433.7125.39429.552146.152164146290.3023623680.3123623686.536.842362368TT1.71109.7168416.6978615605360.90129426220.44867811926395162112124WETL
2025-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2025160-12434.28625.71830.002145.650794119280.192913490.192913496.536.72291349TT2.286110.28668416.4669572903260.6587430537760.47382645443582162112124WETL
2025-03-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025160-12433.6224.20628.913145.840872092520.2200788590.2300788596.536.760078859TT1.62110.6268416.5545316678460.7506761725280.44476466476139162112124WETL
2025-03-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025160-12434.01626.20430.11145.818088852970.2255906730.2355906736.536.765590673TT2.016111.01668416.5440370055760.7396553992530.4620189986315162112124WETL
2025-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025160-12433.45826.97830.218143.734244623670.1480315760.1980315766.546.738031576TT1.458105.45868415.5815814857659.7333046943680.43773424665492162112124WETL
2025-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025160-12435.31228.61631.964143.646760242260.1622048120.2122048126.546.752204812TT3.312107.31268415.5410639484959.6911275838210.51881626126092163112125WETL
2025-03-05 15:00:01FORECAST2025160-12433.65626.52830.092143.611152267070.1263780210.1863780216.546.726378021TT1.656105.65668415.5245698841359.6739622763380.44632942246376162112124WETL
2025-03-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025160-12435.16827.28431.226142.8511737205500.016.546.55TF3.168107.16868415.1721822863359.3078335357240.51250321742315163111122.5WETL
2025-03-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025160-12437.4927.62632.558143.11413969776006.576.57TF5.49109.4968415.2941915805759.4344709495310.61283479310709163111122.5WETL
2025-03-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025160-12436.7727.60832.189143.13063306177006.576.57TF4.77107.7768415.3018413518759.4424154644110.58220231887851163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025160-12437.00427.21232.108141.90413722423006.576.57TF5.004108.00468414.7321064261358.8522017415860.59222244177027163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025160-12439.43428.20233.818141.91456057605006.66.6TF7.434109.43468414.7369557893658.8572128354960.69164470551055163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025160-12437.6728.20232.936141.97875301681006.616.61TF5.67108.6768414.7668178692958.8880755938340.62039233119494163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025160-12438.42628.433.413143.470394514610.0492126250.0492126256.616.659212625TF6.426110.42668415.4593545074359.6061174959680.651604473699163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025160-12438.15628.59833.377143.253753017990.0492126250.0492126256.596.639212625TF6.156110.15668415.3589353763959.5017263422230.64056194549954163111122.5WETL
2025-03-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025160-12438.9328.4933.71143.251885481450.0165354420.0165354426.636.646535442TF6.93110.9368415.3580694829859.500826603370.67187130121467163111122.5WETL
2025-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025160-12436.2327.53631.883143.802977310730.0917323330.0917323336.356.441732333TF4.23103.2368415.6134080439259.7664454869750.55888489640706163112125WETL
2025-03-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025160-12436.7727.60832.189143.508636520360.0917323330.0917323336.286.371732333TF4.77102.7768415.4770749631659.624548533430.58220231887851163112125WETL
2025-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025160-12436.80627.51832.162143.368419277570.0917323330.0917323336.266.351732333TF4.806103.80668415.4120931396459.5569751422160.58374752726087163112125WETL
2025-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025160-12437.86828.45433.161143.844347184640.0799213030.2199213036.26.419921303TF5.868102.86868415.6325616178359.7863944945970.6286527361019163112125WETL
2025-03-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025160-12432.95427.66230.308143.81839151870.0799213030.2199213036.216.429921303TF0.95498.95468415.6205448049459.7738782359720.4159968885754162112124WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025160-12432.93627.73430.335143.870730366060.0791339010.2091339016.236.439133901TF0.93697.93668415.644775547659.7991174308690.41522487547971162112124WETL
2025-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025160-12435.3326.83431.082147.706804094130.2326772910.3326772916.316.642677291TT3.3399.3368417.4119790551661.6545894168450.51960509257452163112125WETL
2025-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025160-12436.06828.23832.153147.430550610730.2314961880.3314961886.286.611496188TT4.068102.06868417.2852890831861.520599931290.55184582300483163112125WETL
2025-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025160-12436.71628.14832.432147.108285675490.1700788320.2500788326.336.580078832TF4.716102.71668417.1373858563161.3643657244760.57988213240614163112125WETL
2025-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2025160-12434.32228.11231.217157.127831032450.5468506891.9668506896.458.416850689TT2.32294.32268421.6796851382666.2576143162220.475402749161791621151210WETL
2025-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2025160-12434.80829.1231.964156.856600253590.5507876992.0007876996.48.400787699TT2.80893.80868421.5582405218166.1241924171360.496710357234261621151210WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:06FORECAST2025160-12435.54629.31832.432157.094905413130.5673231412.0273231416.418.437323141TT3.54696.54668421.6649470279566.2414149693870.529064199514861631151212.5WETL
2025-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025160-12436.12230.0233.071156.704539360260.5818900781.5918900786.217.801890078TT4.12290.12268421.4901180659266.0494147964240.554194107294141631151212.5WETL
2025-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2025160-12436.12230.30833.215156.620859344390.5818900781.5918900786.27.791890078TT4.12287.12268421.452618647366.0082713054850.554194107294141631151212.5WETL
2025-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025160-12435.29429.53432.414157.25069702370.5968507161.5168507166.297.806850716TT3.29490.29468421.7346713262866.318071025120.518027356265051631151212.5WETL
2025-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025160-12437.45431.24434.349159.468708454250.7543311162.3143311166.428.734331116TT5.45493.45468422.7243521521267.4113064698570.611318037924681631151212.5WETL
2025-03-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025160-12437.45431.24434.349156.65442576350.7543311162.3143311166.438.744331116TT5.45495.45468421.4676616811666.0247745185470.611318037924681631151212.5WETL
2025-03-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025160-12435.7830.75833.269158.866538621030.7547248172.3047248176.468.764724817TT3.7891.7868422.4562139979767.1141564368020.539292926760521631151212.5WETL
2025-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2025160-12440.65832.52236.59169.709228066070.2673229793.6173229796.4910.107322979TT8.65892.65868427.2220832381572.5035299591230.737332577220091641151215WETL
2025-02-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025160-12440.65832.52236.59170.527590436860.2673229793.6173229796.5510.167322979TT8.65882.65868427.5764927824372.9135890416320.737332577220091641151215WETL
2025-02-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025160-12438.35430.54234.448169.448025009640.342519873.692519876.4510.14251987TT6.35482.35468427.1088084183472.3727440507080.648671873472881631151212.5WETL
2025-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025160-12442.40429.2135.807165.818680757550.6519688564.3719688566.3810.751968856TT10.40489.40468425.5270845569770.5603397878420.795941714901991641151215WETL
2025-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025160-12443.41228.54435.978164.408031324910.6413389294.3613389296.4210.781338929TT11.41295.41268424.9083560528369.858346312150.825909688683681641151215WETL
2025-02-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025160-12448.00229.28238.642174.805693883630.5980318194.0380318196.3410.378031819TT16.00299.00268429.4172737755975.0645845079570.925579503709441651151217.5WETL
2025-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2025160-12437.97631.02834.502167.331298433720.0074803192.3974803196.238.627480319TT5.97683.97668426.1880791268771.3146046572720.633133843082311631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 19:00:03FORECAST2025160-12437.97631.02834.502165.997679612940.0074803192.3274803196.138.457480319TT5.97688.97668425.605437312470.649515024510.633133843082311631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025160-12438.87631.5535.213168.828521378530.2287402812.8787402816.239.108740281TT6.87689.87668426.8398502268172.0627407792270.669722585589061631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025160-12436.55435.63636.095163.503831815090.0893701272.0093701276.068.069370127TT4.55491.55468424.5105953081969.4091089789930.572905213953331631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025160-12436.55435.63636.095158.595253575820.0893701272.0093701276.128.129370127TT4.55495.55468422.3352803376866.980370879170.572905213953331631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 03:00:04FORECAST2025160-12439.66839.43439.551157.373154129050.047244121.987244126.098.07724412TT7.668113.66868421.7894574538566.3783372978930.700644187355821641151215WETL