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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 7, 2025

[ Thursday, March 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 8, 2025 ]

DAY 158 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/08/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.650
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 116

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 142 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 413.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.54 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -126

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-03-08 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025158-12638.4000821.0599629.73002141.67622583333007.27.2TT6.40008116.4000866413.22785228673 58.5445625211980.649812635429416 3111122.5WETL
2025-03-08 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025158-12638.4000821.0599629.73002141.67622583333007.27.2TT6.40008116.4000866413.22785228673 58.5445625211980.649812635429416 3111122.5WETL
2025-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.46817.625.034142.9968512007.27.2TT0.468110.46866413.8462766050559.1787144353660.38241714107253162111122WETL
2025-03-07 07:00:03FORECAST2025158-12633.00817.81625.412142.89003951667007.27.2TT1.008111.00866413.7963357472759.1273747667790.40637575572129162111122WETL
2025-03-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025158-12633.58418.66226.123142.88010111667007.27.2TT1.584111.58466413.7916882611359.1225982599870.43232156150855162111122WETL
2025-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025158-12633.60218.2325.916144.9741208007.27.2TT1.602107.60266414.7683258127160.1306733703850.43313770686474162111122WETL
2025-03-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025158-12633.47619.83226.654144.9766792007.27.2TT1.476107.47666414.7695158599960.1319070427730.42743087023887162111122WETL
2025-03-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025158-12633.33219.77826.555144.9772696007.27.2TT1.332107.33266414.7697904851960.1321917371070.42092738090416162111122WETL
2025-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2025158-12633.6221.227.41144.972448007.27.2TT1.62107.6266414.7675477006860.1298667411250.43395413745868162111122WETL
2025-03-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025158-12634.17821.36227.77144.94014186667007.27.2TT2.178109.17866414.752519678560.1142890417590.45938618315603162111122WETL
2025-03-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025158-12634.44821.77628.112144.92794026667007.27.2TT2.448110.44866414.7468434721160.1084057565150.47175855697619162111122WETL
2025-03-05 23:00:01FORECAST2025158-12633.78221.1127.446142.947651200.017.27.21TT1.782104.78266413.823274342159.1550650790960.44131428354442162111122WETL
2025-03-05 19:00:01FORECAST2025158-12633.85421.25427.554142.952374400.017.27.21TT1.854104.85466413.8254826840859.1573353369150.44459213232133162111122WETL
2025-03-05 15:00:01FORECAST2025158-12634.30420.9327.617142.9434200.017.27.21TT2.304105.30466413.8212960132559.1530313209660.46515579945177162111122WETL
2025-03-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025158-12633.820.58827.194143.0124992167900.017.27.21TT1.8104.866413.8535918520959.1862364806130.44213337800418162111122WETL
2025-03-05 07:00:03FORECAST2025158-12633.54820.06626.807143.4063876977600.047.27.24TT1.548103.54866414.0376339225759.3756414517640.43069014015838162111122WETL
2025-03-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025158-12633.02620.89426.96143.4089082617700.047.27.24TT1.026103.02666414.0388110484359.3768538704560.40718099334609162111122WETL
2025-03-04 23:00:01FORECAST2025158-12633.820.71427.257142.1767052242300.057.197.24TT1.8102.866413.4624616295358.7847305283860.44213337800418162111122WETL
2025-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025158-12633.24220.42626.834142.3081605760500.087.197.27TT1.242101.24266413.5240344152958.8478446916270.41687351129855162111122WETL
2025-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025158-12633.27819.68826.483142.3516890168100.097.197.28TT1.278101.27866413.544418308158.8687464296340.41849402427654162111122WETL
2025-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025158-12633.74619.72426.735143.6639850567700.097.197.28TT1.746101.74666414.1578952231659.4995736704820.43967685080589162111122WETL
2025-03-04 07:00:03FORECAST2025158-12632.93620.13826.537143.4686509584500.067.27.26TT0.936101.93666414.0667092142959.4055921777780.40315879465633162111122WETL
2025-03-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025158-12633.63819.88626.762143.6211698374400.087.227.3TT1.638101.63866414.1379120619659.4789714043740.43477084987352162111122WETL
2025-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.77420.51626.645143.7419197323600.086.947.02TT0.77497.77466414.1942641219359.5370786670190.39594485773854162111122WETL
2025-03-03 19:00:01FORECAST2025158-12632.0920.82226.456143.504887637100.036.926.95TT0.09000000000000398.0966414.0836286656659.4230246040290.36590405505811162111122WETL
2025-03-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.07221.12826.6143.4050143943100.026.916.93TT0.07200000000000398.07266414.0369925744459.3749808799140.36512360344617162111122WETL
2025-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.3620.51626.438143.2820770394700.026.856.87TT0.3698.3666413.9795703848259.3158526966470.37767576367577162111122WETL
2025-03-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025158-12631.06421.43426.249142.9350505877400.036.856.88TT-0.936100.06466413.8173827700359.1490085403210.32239246105855162111122WETL
2025-03-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025158-12631.44221.54226.492143.0415596564400.026.886.9TT-0.55898.44266413.8671764633459.2002064119240.33818002216192162111122WETL
2025-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025158-12631.7320.22825.979145.980542921760.0003937010.1103937016.876.980393701TT-0.2797.7366415.2358696950160.6163576986680.35040438169426162112124WETL
2025-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.50420.62426.564145.822697222180.0003937010.1103937016.846.950393701TT0.504100.50466415.1626198335360.540133009950.38400156400423162112124WETL
2025-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.4520.49826.474145.98214537960.0003937010.1303937016.877.000393701TT0.45101.4566415.2366131808760.6171316323030.38162566508391162112124WETL
2025-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.2720.46226.366146.863423684170.0110236280.2310236286.97.131023628TT0.2798.2766415.645038182361.043053344790.37373860823616162112124WETL
2025-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2025158-12631.85620.17426.015146.607524300160.0110236280.2110236286.877.081023628TT-0.14495.85666415.5265367859960.9193168392140.35580255031641162112124WETL
2025-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2025158-12631.7320.1225.925146.651127465260.0125984320.2025984326.897.092598432TT-0.2797.7366415.546733900560.9403970410170.35040438169426162112124WETL
2025-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.37820.98426.681148.851624182130.0110236280.1010236286.796.891023628TT0.37890.37866416.5631109747862.0060956429580.37846473654238162112124WETL
2025-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025158-12632.41421.72227.068148.877047607350.0110236280.0810236286.86.881023628TT0.41486.41466416.5748205169962.0184293861310.38004419955489162111122WETL
2025-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025158-12632.61221.03826.825149.197818729220.0098425250.0798425256.896.969842525TT0.61289.61266416.72249660762.1740875091590.38876637610683162111122WETL
2025-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025158-12633.06220.87626.969150.654104675250.3417324680.4817324686.957.431732468TT1.06290.06266417.3914281465762.8817319065450.40879264253078162112124WETL
2025-03-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025158-12632.03622.51427.275150.348899263120.3437009730.4837009736.967.443700973TT0.03600000000000192.03666417.2514397221662.7332946781790.36356437727303162112124WETL
2025-03-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025158-12631.5522.29826.924150.576754398750.3437009730.4837009736.997.473700973TT-0.4589.5566417.3559601971262.8441059154550.34274504618698162112124WETL
2025-02-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025158-12631.51424.29627.905159.699723672771.3153550411.6853550416.798.475355041TT-0.48684.51466421.4914884396967.3120742342410.341220779472731621151210WETL
2025-02-28 19:00:02FORECAST2025158-12631.2822.13626.708160.506125110771.3153550411.6753550416.868.535355041TT-0.7275.2866421.8524490795367.7099019702440.331377015434081621151210WETL
2025-02-28 15:00:02FORECAST2025158-12631.62221.63226.627160.074341600551.303150311.653150316.778.42315031TT-0.37878.62266421.6592665133867.4968294668980.345801246370871621151210WETL
2025-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025158-12632.97223.23428.103158.443382289351.6011819672.0611819676.598.651181967TT0.97280.97266420.9276508288666.6932006964340.404766470773121621151210WETL
2025-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025158-12632.86426.36629.615157.056363821721.6173237082.1173237086.598.707323708TT0.86486.86466420.3030729244266.0112723366040.39994837300721621151210WETL
2025-02-28 03:00:03FORECAST2025158-12634.05226.36630.209160.303118705871.5547252492.0347252496.538.564725249TT2.05285.05266421.7616491694567.6097077123930.453625107784321621151210WETL
2025-02-27 23:00:02FORECAST2025158-12636.0525.7930.92163.677424514121.8055127862.1355127866.578.705512786TT4.0577.0566423.2648337053769.2788978682920.545323958947681631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2025158-12636.0526.43831.244162.343805693351.7354340081.9554340086.588.535434008TT4.0582.0566422.6722729230868.6182253473890.545323958947681631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 15:00:02FORECAST2025158-12635.97826.29431.136164.935261889972.0795286822.3995286826.588.979528682TT3.97881.97866423.8218864694969.9031738395450.542032062815341631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025158-12635.22226.0630.641161.601235715931.6137803991.6537803996.698.343780399TT3.22281.22266422.3414591653268.2509016951840.507336086133951631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025158-12638.46229.28233.872157.374637455531.6137803991.6537803996.758.403780399TT6.46286.46266420.4465869322866.1676291878810.652453903914041631151212.5WETL
2025-02-27 03:00:03FORECAST2025158-12639.18228.7633.971156.87559957931.5803158141.6003158146.748.340315814TT7.18294.18266420.2215121465.9225016730820.682596044542611631151212.5WETL
2025-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2025158-12640.42428.72434.574152.243728633910.0043307110.0143307116.86.814330711TT8.42483.42466418.1187882539563.6559633356740.73177209717848164111123WETL
2025-02-26 19:00:02FORECAST2025158-12640.42428.72434.574152.356942787090.0043307110.0143307116.86.814330711TT8.42485.42466418.1704794165663.7111758077190.73177209717848164111123WETL
2025-02-26 15:00:03FORECAST2025158-12640.74828.41834.583152.626699706130.0043307110.0143307116.816.824330711TT8.74883.74866418.2935847725263.8427693520770.74394088009501164111123WETL
2025-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2025158-12649.33426.9638.147155.867095053180.6169294670.6269294676.767.386929467TT17.33498.33466419.76578721665.4276738560690.950210826043941651131210.5WETL
2025-02-26 07:00:04FORECAST2025158-12649.33426.9638.147155.246660297560.6169294670.6269294676.767.386929467TT17.33499.33466419.4848434356865.1236209888320.950210826043941651131210.5WETL
2025-02-26 03:00:04FORECAST2025158-12644.81627.35636.086154.935471473940.6169294670.6269294676.797.416929467TT12.81695.81666419.3437648485664.971223916470.869668887800131651131210.5WETL
2025-02-25 23:00:03FORECAST2025158-12627.28421.86624.575140.849264432860.0051181130.1651181137.848.005118113TT-4.71667.28466412.8395440980658.148146115010.18487675644787161112123WETL
2025-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2025158-12627.28421.86624.575140.980261934380.0051181130.1651181137.868.025118113TT-4.71667.28466412.901109696758.2109065980370.18487675644787161112123WETL
2025-02-25 15:00:03FORECAST2025158-12628.07626.65427.365139.797202452370.0051181130.1551181137.817.965118113TT-3.92474.07666412.3443572872157.6445875957730.21024220687217161112123WETL
2025-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2025158-12625.71823.64824.683148.8038907286400.057.587.63TT-6.28277.71866416.5411238185861.9829398726850.14060136526384161111121.5WETL
2025-02-25 07:00:04FORECAST2025158-12625.71823.64824.683148.7595112576300.057.567.61TT-6.28270.71866416.5206791943961.9614126656530.14060136526384161111121.5WETL
2025-02-25 03:00:04FORECAST2025158-12628.2227.75227.986148.1341966639500.047.397.43TT-3.7883.2266416.2323656847861.6582471162490.21506394566902161111121.5WETL