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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 26, 2025

[ Tuesday, February 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 27, 2025 ]

DAY 149 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/27/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.975
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -22

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.46 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 153 in
SWE DAY: 57
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 412.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 63.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -135

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-27 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025149-13551.9499423.8499637.89995153.4380133333302.467.029.48TT19.94994-22.0500657412.42740446917 63.2820415859720.9751830508270816 51151217.5WETL
2025-02-27 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025149-13551.9499423.8499637.89995153.4380133333302.467.029.48TT19.94994-22.0500657412.42740446917 63.2820415859720.9751830508270816 51151217.5WETL
2025-02-26 11:00:02FORECAST2025149-13539.2921.48830.389153.712376802.467.029.48TT7.29-34.7157412.5566121794763.4150574226620.74852309295541641151215WETL
2025-02-26 07:00:03FORECAST2025149-13540.2821.59630.938153.2497057333302.467.029.48TT8.28-33.7257412.33867146663.1907800646390.779583103333021641151215WETL
2025-02-26 03:00:02FORECAST2025149-13540.17221.09230.632153.2195953333302.467.029.48TT8.172-33.82857412.3244791156963.1761898361340.776305188273121641151215WETL
2025-02-25 23:00:01FORECAST2025149-13541.28820.9331.109140.647039203.467.0210.48TT9.288-34.71257406.3026159144957.1452599475880.808824494450741641151215WETL
2025-02-25 19:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.32420.80431.064140.62509603.467.0210.48TT9.324-34.67657406.2919367972157.1348426161330.809822931770371641151215WETL
2025-02-25 15:00:01FORECAST2025149-13540.92821.21831.073140.651959203.467.0210.48TT8.928-35.07257406.3050102537257.1475957249620.798664676781591641151215WETL
2025-02-25 11:00:02FORECAST2025149-13540.87421.6531.262150.8107588775603.467.0210.48TT8.874-35.12657411.1855649337962.0112070871640.797113323638051641151215WETL
2025-02-25 07:00:03FORECAST2025149-13540.92821.68631.307150.336165357103.447.0210.46TT8.928-36.07257410.9603510259461.7822032870490.798664676781591641151215WETL
2025-02-25 03:00:02FORECAST2025149-13540.60421.2930.947150.0701293623503.297.0210.31TT8.604-34.39657410.8339873410961.6539096267270.78925030817131641151215WETL
2025-02-24 23:00:01FORECAST2025149-13540.60420.5730.587151.1111920810703.937.0210.95TT8.604-38.39657411.3279924319462.1562632727020.78925030817131641151215WETL
2025-02-24 19:00:02FORECAST2025149-13540.65821.21830.938150.9703739715203.937.0210.95TT8.658-38.34257411.2612477939262.0882643794430.790837026177361641151215WETL
2025-02-24 15:00:01FORECAST2025149-13541.19822.78431.991150.6461638740503.897.0210.91TT9.198-36.80257411.1074886659461.9317661074170.806314407428261641151215WETL
2025-02-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.4523.52232.486154.935122844503.897.0210.91TT9.45-36.5557413.1313540596264.0085570921430.813292216397461641151215WETL
2025-02-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025149-13541.55822.62232.09154.9090098560903.837.0210.85TT9.558-36.44257413.1190985049563.9958705020430.816234561816381641151215WETL
2025-02-24 03:00:03FORECAST2025149-13540.87423.19832.036154.2949507062203.647.0210.66TT8.874-35.12657412.8306689658363.6976877180990.797113323638051641151215WETL
2025-02-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.3623.52232.441162.2612173958303.717.7311.44TT9.36-38.6457416.5377885500667.58792866150.810818165758231641151215WETL
2025-02-23 19:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.28823.66632.477161.9294674056503.617.7311.34TT9.288-38.71257416.3849001876667.4249851231420.808824494450741641151215WETL
2025-02-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.50424.78233.143160.7170455483903.437.7311.16TT9.504-36.49657415.8250534906766.8301740620210.814767008904991641151215WETL
2025-02-23 11:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.50425.66433.584162.7446586746303.157.7310.88TT9.504-38.49657416.7603539412767.825521551290.814767008904991641151215WETL
2025-02-23 07:00:03FORECAST2025149-13541.23426.09633.665161.7985069694502.977.710.67TT9.234-40.76657416.3245110508267.3606843028090.807320839122781641151215WETL
2025-02-23 03:00:03FORECAST2025149-13541.32425.77233.548163.383580371803.27.6510.85TT9.324-36.67657417.054080025768.1397888032650.809822931770371641151215WETL
2025-02-22 23:00:01FORECAST2025149-13541.14424.67432.909168.1422657711303.338.2111.54TT9.144-40.85657419.2268182146370.489747086630.804798776127051641151215WETL
2025-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.41424.11632.765165.9469407304502.978.1611.13TT9.414-41.58657418.2277311823969.4036125183530.812305003856091641151215WETL
2025-02-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.3626.07833.719165.9358020984302.818.3311.14TT9.36-41.6457418.2226478001369.3981105184440.810818165758231641151215WETL
2025-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2025149-13542.18827.28434.736164.1730238537402.218.3610.57TT10.188-38.81257417.4163464856368.5285038085250.832818619520081641151215WETL
2025-02-22 07:00:03FORECAST2025149-13543.26826.65434.961173.6673509048302.558.5111.06TT11.268-35.73257421.7167545524773.2384315953090.858933467403041651151217.5WETL
2025-02-22 03:00:04FORECAST2025149-13542.58425.91634.25170.8694977488902.548.4110.95TT10.584-37.41657420.460240585671.8438301322410.842733935928591641151215WETL
2025-02-21 23:00:03FORECAST2025149-13542.78226.16834.475173.908433735030.0059055152.3659055158.8911.255905515TT10.782-35.21857421.8246074060773.3588567848830.847543936960981641151215WETL
2025-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.12626.99634.061174.288415255060.0059055152.4859055158.8411.325905515TT9.126-34.87457421.9944651276473.5487465735050.804291971769211641151215WETL
2025-02-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.73825.01633.377177.8553605249702.398.8711.26TT9.738-38.26257423.580978691975.3361476767690.821074012101671641151215WETL
2025-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2025149-13541.88221.7431.811183.9191894898803.119.3912.5TT9.882-37.11857426.2452914377278.3946885251030.824887399798611641151215WETL
2025-02-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025149-13542.822.02832.414177.0517831081703.119.7612.87TT10.8-34.257423.2248151099374.932708170840.847976329573421641151215WETL
2025-02-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025149-13543.17822.96433.071175.1125068672803.189.712.88TT11.178-33.82257422.3622842158473.9609183952280.856868911098761651151217.5WETL
2025-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2025149-13542.65623.16232.909173.7701592145802.548.7511.29TT10.656-35.34457421.7627558242373.2897812303580.844494416237451641151215WETL
2025-02-20 19:00:03FORECAST2025149-13543.77226.76235.267173.272077316602.518.7911.3TT11.772-34.22857421.539778643573.0410731171370.870121955067941651151217.5WETL
2025-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025149-13543.46626.76235.114176.5553703039502.38.8411.14TT11.466-31.53457423.0044302629374.6837038252850.863404311997411651151217.5WETL
2025-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2025149-13543.05226.4234.736173.7088678583101.888.7110.59TT11.052-31.94857421.7353326355773.2591671679720.853944494625421651151217.5WETL
2025-02-20 07:00:04FORECAST2025149-13541.21624.27832.747175.8420821048801.948.9710.91TT9.216-36.78457422.6872756441874.3262106285130.806818022478641641151215WETL
2025-02-20 03:00:03FORECAST2025149-13541.2724.99833.134169.8775652293601.88.5810.38TT9.27-31.7357420.0126159255571.3507205590460.808324075519531641151215WETL
2025-02-19 23:00:03FORECAST2025149-13543.1627.28435.222170.329642908670.0125984322.2825984328.8311.112598432TT11.16-33.8457420.2167627405971.5753711418410.856453569674031651151217.5WETL
2025-02-19 19:00:03FORECAST2025149-13543.7929.15636.473169.024564614320.0114173292.2814173298.5910.871417329TT11.79-31.2157419.6267834580370.92723437450.87050988156271651151217.5WETL
2025-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2025149-13543.64629.04836.347169.1727599667302.178.3910.56TT11.646-32.35457419.6938757557871.000771302740.867384009273481651151217.5WETL
2025-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.01829.22835.123178.1009561613302.219.3711.58TT9.018-32.98257423.6896872385475.4595384128790.801234441225911641151215WETL
2025-02-19 07:00:04FORECAST2025149-13540.62228.27434.448177.3397362296402.289.0511.33TT8.622-31.37857423.3525259927375.0772252917010.789779995531641641151215WETL
2025-02-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025149-13540.22628.45434.34176.4361363448902.278.9111.18TT8.226-29.77457422.951454373774.6239204711490.777947592482981641151215WETL
2025-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.25228.63434.943175.8892060190902.059.1111.16TT9.252-29.74857422.7082464309674.3498178424610.807822856940981641151215WETL
2025-02-18 19:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.10827.57234.34173.0667057026901.699.1210.81TT9.108-29.89257421.4477574108872.9385750008890.803784371194041641151215WETL
2025-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025149-13541.10827.57234.34172.7707273149901.699.0310.72TT9.108-28.89257421.3150533669872.7909081989660.803784371194041641151215WETL
2025-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2025149-13540.38828.29234.34172.131799403150.0283464722.0083464728.1310.138346472TT8.388-26.61257421.0282450725772.4723494238910.782833364396041641151215WETL
2025-02-18 07:00:04FORECAST2025149-13540.35228.09434.223173.662289889310.0287401732.1287401738.610.728740173TT8.352-27.64857421.7144897059273.2359039618330.781753026508741641151215WETL
2025-02-18 03:00:04FORECAST2025149-13540.35228.09434.223174.700364734330.0181102462.1681102468.3810.548110246TT8.352-27.64857422.1784279174473.7547253401430.781753026508741641151215WETL
2025-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2025149-13541.34230.90236.122160.2662767914801.477.799.26TT9.342-29.65857415.6164669114366.6093037251230.810320949373381641141212WETL
2025-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2025149-13541.21631.2836.248164.2453216782801.537.789.31TT9.216-32.78457417.4494868244668.5641252479140.806818022478641641151215WETL
2025-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2025149-13541.7231.83836.779157.6525546258601.378.329.69TT9.72-34.2857414.4022871721665.3315792154890.820593699410791641141212WETL
2025-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025149-13539.81225.98832.9160.7797799040.0090551231.6890551238.6110.299055123TT7.812-41.18857415.8540639595566.8609248755980.765181249052261641151215WETL
2025-02-17 07:00:04FORECAST2025149-13539.79431.69435.744154.110780441490.1547244931.5347244938.510.034724493TT7.794-40.20657412.7440746733963.6083114705180.764617152583491641151215WETL
2025-02-17 03:00:04FORECAST2025149-13540.11832.37836.248173.455980081030.1547244931.5347244938.710.234724493TT8.118-42.88257421.6221395619873.1328814415850.774655911470981641151215WETL
2025-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2025149-13534.08827.8630.974167.728104616310.0003937011.7703937018.7510.520393701TT2.088-53.91257419.0387606086470.2845770776560.555500671437351631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 19:00:03FORECAST2025149-13532.82828.81430.821167.590094328390.0271653691.6271653698.8310.457165369TT0.828-57.17257418.9760505023870.2162358250310.504442588794561631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2025149-13530.12824.33227.23166.598142636790.0271653691.5571653698.8410.397165369TT-1.872-57.87257418.5246729628769.7254331632830.395858205059821621151210WETL
2025-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025149-13527.89626.52827.212174.370760157320.086614221.296614228.9410.23661422TT-4.104-57.10457422.0312529874673.5899103935690.31150061321969162114128WETL
2025-02-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025149-13530.70427.03228.868171.689198219060.129921331.09992133910.09992133TT-1.296-54.29657420.8292927954272.2518438671380.41864191820364162114128WETL
2025-02-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025149-13530.59630.03830.317157.0031259812700.979.1610.13TT-1.404-51.40457414.0993489610365.014892253690.4143466517051162113126WETL