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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 24, 2025

[ Sunday, February 23, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 25, 2025 ]

DAY 147 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/25/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.561
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -61

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.79 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.91 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 141 in
SWE DAY: 55
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 404.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 56.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -137

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-25 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025147-13734.7300625.8830.30503140.632920833330.790000000000083.91000000000014.338.2400000000001TT2.73006-61.2699455404.83400507035 56.93298858570.5609806756957616 31151212.5WETL
2025-02-25 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025147-13734.7300625.8830.30503140.632920833330.790000000000083.91000000000014.338.2400000000001TT2.73006-61.2699455404.83400507035 56.93298858570.5609806756957616 31151212.5WETL
2025-02-24 11:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.1823.32427.752145.566785440731.3610243574.4810243574.338.811024357TT0.18-63.8255407.2384137158859.2803867926010.452329591752341621151210WETL
2025-02-24 07:00:04FORECAST2025147-13732.05423.3627.707145.346958440381.2492132734.3692132734.338.699213273TT0.054000000000002-63.94655407.1319260753259.1753871390230.446986592428951621151210WETL
2025-02-24 03:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.8125.7929.3145.02415073521.1759848874.2959848874.338.625984887TT0.81-63.1955406.9754451656959.0212683052330.479154969255331621151210WETL
2025-02-23 23:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.3624.96228.661152.073557543631.1633864554.9933864554.339.323386455TT0.36-65.6455410.3636195131762.4054555058460.459977208396631621151210WETL
2025-02-23 19:00:01FORECAST2025147-13732.1823.12627.653151.7798597881.0606304944.8906304944.339.220630494TT0.18-65.8255410.2236666220962.2636906016210.452329591752341621151210WETL
2025-02-23 15:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.61223.73828.175151.82833587111.0992131924.9292131924.339.259213192TT0.612-65.38855410.2467736458662.287084939140.470708162697911621151210WETL
2025-02-23 11:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.16224.78228.472154.649433517590.9905517164.8205517164.339.150551716TT0.162-65.83855411.5866132546963.6516365832630.451565754363271621151210WETL
2025-02-23 07:00:03FORECAST2025147-13731.35224.31427.833154.503966836881.0464572584.8464572584.339.176457258TT-0.648-67.64855411.5177604649863.5811264156690.41742070110281621151210WETL
2025-02-23 03:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.59424.828.697155.812388417051.2433077584.9933077584.339.323307758TT0.594-65.40655412.1361533378964.2159184045910.469940866912981621151210WETL
2025-02-22 23:00:01FORECAST2025147-13732.48625.28628.886160.083823948431.3909456335.7009456334.3310.030945633TT0.486-67.51455414.1406944638766.2972260224350.465339535004971621151210WETL
2025-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.21624.94428.58158.75248042021.2188982965.4788982964.339.808898296TT0.216-68.78455413.518239830965.647046272150.453857793125761621151210WETL
2025-02-22 15:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.48624.65628.571158.910161029461.0996068935.5296068934.339.859606893TT0.486-68.51455413.5920715526265.7239826909340.465339535004971621151210WETL
2025-02-22 11:00:01FORECAST2025147-13732.41424.76428.589161.041129900991.3917330355.8517330354.3310.181733035TT0.414-67.58655414.5869729158766.76555456060.462274514596671621151210WETL
2025-02-22 07:00:03FORECAST2025147-13732.14425.12428.634169.741725296391.5082685316.1182685314.3310.448268531TT0.144-66.85655418.5936653716471.0528109583210.450802096239131621151210WETL
2025-02-22 03:00:03FORECAST2025147-13732.03625.50228.769166.764213666421.5220480666.0320480664.3310.362048066TT0.036000000000001-66.96455417.2324523049669.5794418247510.446224068567111621151210WETL
2025-02-21 23:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.4526.54629.498170.160616376521.4472448766.1872448764.5810.767244876TT0.45-65.5555418.7843428682571.2606019112980.463806756291031621151210WETL
2025-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.52226.49229.507169.599360577251.3834653146.0734653144.5810.653465314TT0.522-65.47855418.528815331570.9822194633770.46687282811481621151210WETL
2025-02-21 15:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.25226.07829.165173.399696977751.3476385236.0676385234.5810.647638523TT0.252-66.74855420.2519294066272.8715572134250.455386677940791621151210WETL
2025-02-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.5426.45629.498177.944762608081.7358277096.9758277094.5811.555827709TT0.54-66.4655422.2909890677175.1444698011850.467639660491931621151210WETL
2025-02-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025147-13733.74626.65430.2170.889550738411.7039379287.2539379284.6411.893937928TT1.746-64.25455419.1156674863371.6224881241690.519148245952561631151212.5WETL
2025-02-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025147-13733.74626.79830.272168.688031317531.748032447.158032444.7211.87803244TT1.746-64.25455418.1131302373970.5306808077560.519148245952561631151212.5WETL
2025-02-20 23:00:02FORECAST2025147-13734.12427.03230.578167.140249232411.1618116515.7518116514.5910.341811651TT2.124-64.87655417.4049309778769.7651641944780.535267479153151631151212.5WETL
2025-02-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025147-13733.72827.03230.38166.901794686831.1173234385.6973234384.6410.337323438TT1.728-66.27255417.2955765956969.6473806486960.518379671741931631151212.5WETL
2025-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2025147-13735.88827.78831.838171.699002656351.1885833195.8285833194.6310.458583319TT3.888-64.11255419.4828718643972.0247907305360.609312372909341631151212.5WETL
2025-02-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025147-13735.45626.47430.965170.213486293681.0141737765.5041737764.6510.154173776TT3.456-64.54455418.8083946213571.2868369375610.591435499613471631151212.5WETL
2025-02-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025147-13734.1625.64629.903171.917362705131.0200792915.7300792914.6910.420079291TT2.16-66.8455419.5818007260972.13339661990.536800047921741631151212.5WETL
2025-02-20 03:00:03FORECAST2025147-13736.35626.94231.649166.435518268310.9874021085.4974021084.59.997402108TT4.356-61.64455417.0815524591769.4171843436910.628420521596391631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025147-13736.5930.2933.44164.393617410270.9696855635.1696855635.0610.229685563TT4.59-67.4155416.1413144366268.4109760341020.637860526312231631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2025147-13736.80630.54233.674163.292494698150.9720477694.9120477695.089.992047769TT4.806-66.19455415.6322507940467.8696271091650.646500753354641631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2025147-13737.23830.8334.034164.408798605121.0783470394.9783470394.929.898347039TT5.238-65.76255416.1483229591168.4184458192420.663552915053311631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025147-13736.2329.40832.819172.741977205451.0149611785.7949611785.0210.814961178TT4.23-66.7755419.954901039472.5438399426650.623304860717681631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 07:00:04FORECAST2025147-13735.58229.3932.486172.641198508061.2295282235.6495282235.0610.709528223TT3.582-65.41855419.9093451977972.4936526196820.596671068239131631151212.5WETL
2025-02-19 03:00:04FORECAST2025147-13736.5929.82233.206171.804314448671.2330715325.7030715324.8710.573071532TT4.59-63.4155419.5305906278872.077165513070.637860526312231631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2025147-13736.87830.61433.746172.884089725751.3732290885.4932290885.4210.913229088TT4.878-64.12255420.0191215432872.614623495420.649364401484321631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 19:00:02FORECAST2025147-13735.6929.67832.684172.159231093581.4224417135.6224417135.3510.972441713TT3.69-63.3155419.6913161026472.2537342768830.601144989665031631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025147-13735.6929.67832.684171.863252705871.4224417135.6224417135.2610.882441713TT3.69-62.3155419.5572910958672.1064807441990.601144989665031631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2025147-13737.95831.53234.745169.038086168821.3409456064.7809456065.129.900945606TT5.958-59.04255418.2729147670570.7040530084740.69122620314441631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 07:00:04FORECAST2025147-13737.23830.72233.98170.143332846691.3606306565.3606306565.0310.390630656TT5.238-59.76255418.7764794886171.2520259379950.663552915053311631151212.5WETL
2025-02-18 03:00:03FORECAST2025147-13737.23830.72233.98170.852300142721.3606306565.3006306564.8710.170630656TT5.238-59.76255419.0987507359171.603985550170.663552915053311631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 23:00:02FORECAST2025147-13736.93231.31634.124156.757765253080.7173232224.5273232224.418.937323222TT4.932-66.06855412.5816849733264.6753829207690.651506595137241631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2025147-13734.80831.11832.963161.737458476870.9980320354.3880320354.829.208032035TT2.808-69.19255414.9109074557267.1066356662180.564271145533351631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 15:00:02FORECAST2025147-13736.0528.83232.441155.82959281760.964567454.964567454.759.71456745TT4.05-71.9555412.1442708878264.2242739145570.615959277653131631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025147-13736.3228.59832.459159.606142601641.4023629625.7823629624.6610.442362962TT4.32-75.6855413.9176020339566.0637918155580.626961171111941631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 07:00:03FORECAST2025147-13736.26628.99432.63152.456468991831.1074809135.2774809134.7610.037480913TT4.266-74.73455410.5459278034162.5903825118810.624768732842181631151212.5WETL
2025-02-17 03:00:04FORECAST2025147-13734.98827.69831.343171.71774514511.1074809135.3074809134.9310.237480913TT2.988-78.01255419.49136537472.0341113698650.571853032958521631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025147-13732.79228.2230.506166.419045355881.5637803725.5537803725.1910.743780372TT0.792-83.20855417.073986640569.4090546994850.478386633463231621151210WETL
2025-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025147-13733.06227.69830.38165.51057016491.322835365.202835365.3810.58283536TT1.062-84.93855416.6562439441668.9610124979630.489918506237711621151210WETL
2025-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2025147-13732.9926.97829.984164.266961630931.2618117055.1918117055.3410.531811705TT0.99-82.0155416.0828322286568.348662636990.486842117219641621151210WETL
2025-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025147-13737.09431.17234.133171.189205137940.6803153284.4903153285.5610.050315328TT5.094-81.90655419.2516924339471.7713639805010.657904024455241631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025147-13736.93231.134.016169.134185176080.6070869424.4270869425.6110.037086942TT4.932-83.06855418.3167548571470.7516634782650.651506595137241631151212.5WETL
2025-02-16 03:00:03FORECAST2025147-13736.93231.134.016155.825154258340.6070869424.4270869425.7710.197086942TT4.932-80.06855412.1421766769764.2221182570570.651506595137241631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 23:00:03FORECAST2025147-13737.88633.47635.681153.547549577661.4751976475.5951976475.3410.935197647TT5.886-79.11455411.0644317077963.1179362072640.68850386774031631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 19:00:03FORECAST2025147-13737.68833.60235.645152.73961282481.6118118945.6818118945.2210.901811894TT5.688-78.31255410.6806216639962.7271991476050.680964522851721631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2025147-13736.7732.16234.466153.276955893991.5960638545.5660638545.2910.856063854TT4.77-81.2355410.935973995262.9870151613160.645065803114261631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 11:00:03FORECAST2025147-13735.9630.3833.17160.385438717180.6555121654.8555121656.2511.105512165TT3.96-85.0455414.2814188343566.4447071121230.612270624079991631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:05FORECAST2025147-13736.39231.133.746157.969776641340.5244097324.5544097326.1910.744409732TT4.392-91.60855413.1513118097965.2654204456690.629878029427351631151212.5WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:04FORECAST2025147-13736.39231.133.746162.110365439550.5177168154.5477168156.1210.667716815TT4.392-92.60855415.0841496796967.2894431927380.629878029427351631151212.5WETL
2025-02-14 23:00:03FORECAST2025147-13730.9228.25629.588169.15042040930.3102363882.9402363885.48.340236388TT-1.08-99.0855418.3241602671570.7597075765550.399444792984021621151210WETL
2025-02-14 19:00:03FORECAST2025147-13732.46830.43431.451164.118298608860.4192915653.3192915655.398.709291565TT0.468-96.53255416.0141643611868.2755368521420.464573079933981621151210WETL
2025-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2025147-13732.46829.64231.055164.324419964450.4192915653.3192915655.468.779291565TT0.468-96.53255416.1093654475468.3769301189440.464573079933981621151210WETL
2025-02-14 11:00:03FORECAST2025147-13733.87233.00833.44161.295157485411.0043312512.4643312515.147.604331251TT1.872-93.12855414.7052138417466.8899427766250.524526112999631631151212.5WETL
2025-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2025147-13727.9525.41226.681156.9099101616100.84.595.39TF-4.05-100.0555412.6532870419364.7493901976410.28331387387903162113126WETL
2025-02-14 03:00:05FORECAST2025147-13725.59225.41225.502151.5599935409700.84.665.46TF-6.408-98.40855410.1188275752562.1576068583340.20447738370611161113124.5WETL