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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 20, 2025

[ Wednesday, February 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, February 21, 2025 ]

DAY 143 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/21/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.360
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -104

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 154 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 408.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.69 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -141

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-21 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025143-14131.8099222.3199627.06494153.5626850.00999999999999090.679999999999993.794.47TF-0.19008-104.1900851408.21013062532 62.6858437030250.360352044936316 2113126WETL
2025-02-21 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025143-14131.8099222.3199627.06494153.5626850.00999999999999090.679999999999993.794.47TF-0.19008-104.1900851408.21013062532 62.6858437030250.360352044936316 2113126WETL
2025-02-20 11:00:01FORECAST2025143-14130.41620.1225.26815400.673.794.46TF-1.584-105.58451408.4207173779662.8967904762050.30023707009972162113126WETL
2025-02-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025143-14130.0220.55225.286153.7447712500.673.794.46TF-1.98-105.9851408.2978417297362.7736582786060.28402117137534162113126WETL
2025-02-20 03:00:02FORECAST2025143-14131.1921.2926.24153.772149973280.0062992160.6762992163.794.466299216TF-0.81-104.8151408.3110265764462.7868644144570.33307727244503162113126WETL
2025-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025143-14130.36220.80425.583153.063862343750.0149606381.1449606383.794.934960638TF-1.638-109.63851407.9696394297362.4454087301010.29800134277689162114128WETL
2025-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2025143-14130.23620.62425.43153.053927734540.0129921331.1429921333.794.932992133TF-1.764-109.76451407.9648466841362.4406221626280.29281435918889162114128WETL
2025-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2025143-14130.39821.05625.727153.06213027470.0145669371.1445669373.794.934566937TF-1.602-109.60251407.9688038377562.4445742010280.29949098605767162114128WETL
2025-02-19 11:00:01FORECAST2025143-14130.79421.43426.114156.76631247990.023622061.153622063.794.94362206TF-1.206-109.20651409.7474145613964.2345912289610.31609456306919162114128WETL
2025-02-19 07:00:03FORECAST2025143-14130.68620.9325.808156.530248093360.0224409571.2024409573.794.992440957TF-1.314-108.31451409.6345637752764.1201998953580.31152751002069162114128WETL
2025-02-19 03:00:03FORECAST2025143-14131.08221.226.141156.016739654760.0177165451.0577165453.794.847716545TF-0.918-106.91851409.3888468032863.8715131292680.32840969304093162114128WETL
2025-02-18 23:00:01FORECAST2025143-14131.24423.01827.131159.1577126130.1145669911.5645669913.795.354566991TF-0.756-108.75651410.8868188177465.3958062258650.335420846174991621151210WETL
2025-02-18 19:00:01FORECAST2025143-1413224.02628.013158.836060623080.2377954041.4577954043.795.247795404TF0-10851410.7339673555765.2393653388490.36886733580515162114128WETL
2025-02-18 15:00:01FORECAST2025143-14132.16224.42228.292158.568541909570.2196851581.3896851583.795.179685158TF0.162-107.83851410.6067452796165.1093128972230.3761760156352162114128WETL
2025-02-18 11:00:02FORECAST2025143-14132.50424.47628.49159.082413648650.248031631.448031633.795.23803163TF0.504-107.49651410.8510473739265.3591762663170.39174909668999162114128WETL
2025-02-18 07:00:03FORECAST2025143-14132.93624.1728.553158.662710063340.1232284131.4932284133.795.283228413TF0.936-107.06451410.651538054965.1550859194680.4116679959539162114128WETL
2025-02-18 03:00:03FORECAST2025143-14133.02624.40428.715158.147034393880.1177165991.3277165993.795.117716599TF1.026-106.97451410.4061162923264.9045101887420.41584843084219162114128WETL
2025-02-17 23:00:02FORECAST2025143-14132.43224.72828.58146.03868115510.1200788051.1200788053.484.600078805TF0.432-112.56851404.5501114032359.0799647304790.38845517336722162114128WETL
2025-02-17 19:00:02FORECAST2025143-14132.43225.23228.832147.529692822210.2279528791.4979528793.484.977952879TF0.432-112.56851405.2809754036359.7909778079820.38845517336722162114128WETL
2025-02-17 15:00:01FORECAST2025143-14130.79424.18827.491147.46696674390.1665355231.4265355233.484.906535523TF-1.206-115.20651405.2502840792759.7610301652730.31609456306919162114128WETL
2025-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2025143-14130.3825.77228.076149.884664637340.106299271.366299273.484.84629927TF-1.62-117.6251406.4297117514360.9175810445150.29874574279232162114128WETL
2025-02-17 07:00:03FORECAST2025143-14130.41625.75428.085149.900147174720.1094488781.3194488783.634.949448878TF-1.584-117.58451406.4372412959560.925002287550.30023707009972162114128WETL
2025-02-17 03:00:04FORECAST2025143-14129.69625.55627.626150.731233185140.1094488781.3294488783.795.119448878TF-2.304-117.30451406.8409849344961.3236433694310.27107296903514162114128WETL
2025-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025143-14130.00224.74627.374147.617542409880.1826772641.6426772643.775.412677264TF-1.998-122.99851405.3239512234859.8329255594730.28329413928291621151210WETL
2025-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025143-14129.35424.5326.942148.540475546010.2295276831.7795276833.815.589527683TF-2.646-124.64651405.7748689193160.2739919938920.257732167445391621151210WETL
2025-02-16 15:00:02FORECAST2025143-14129.98425.59227.788148.295798048630.2157481481.7357481483.825.555748148TF-2.016-122.01651405.6554297200760.15699568310.282567999901471621151210WETL
2025-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025143-14128.83223.91826.375152.965582011380.2515749391.9015749393.745.641574939TF-3.168-123.16851407.9222208072162.3980599211490.2380461643091161115127.5WETL
2025-02-16 07:00:03FORECAST2025143-14128.90423.88226.393152.852199982720.1728347392.0028347393.745.742834739TT-3.096-124.09651407.8675011605762.3434448538480.24071161954328161115127.5WETL
2025-02-16 03:00:03FORECAST2025143-14130.81223.77427.293153.51191975340.1728347392.0228347393.885.902834739TT-1.188-121.18851408.1856697297162.6613657760360.316858497341021621151210WETL
2025-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2025143-14131.26222.58626.924153.158331265260.1590552041.6190552044.035.649055204TF-0.738-121.73851408.0152079538762.4909283810650.336203467429341621151210WETL
2025-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025143-14131.3722.60426.987152.656090397120.1641733171.6341733173.95.534173317TF-0.63-120.6351407.7728189067662.2490043045190.340914002979531621151210WETL
2025-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025143-14129.8424.06226.951152.886487464920.1606300081.6506300083.955.600630008TF-2.16-121.1651407.8840504091662.3599597600210.276791288419091621151210WETL
2025-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025143-14130.43423.07226.753153.84896408330.2736221951.5536221953.875.423622195TF-1.566-122.56651408.3480132631162.8239188260040.30098399243471621151210WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025143-14128.92222.08225.502153.907029861490.307086781.457086783.95.35708678TF-3.078-127.07851408.3759676699962.8519322509030.24138050835873161114126WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025143-14128.92222.08225.502154.067336857620.307086781.447086783.845.28708678TF-3.078-128.07851408.4531223129562.9292847859360.24138050835873161114126WETL
2025-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2025143-14128.95822.125.529155.28342847390.4547246551.7147246553.845.554724655TF-3.042-134.04251409.0373967632963.5167293434430.24272130516358161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025143-14128.79622.24425.52155.190973313370.5724412541.8924412543.565.452441254TF-3.204-134.20451408.9930397965563.4720279244210.23671951801156161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025143-14128.99422.56825.781155.259168791830.5543310081.8543310083.675.524331008TF-3.006-135.00651409.0257587680963.5049993207820.2440661170412161115127.5WETL
2025-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025143-14130.05624.42227.239152.592741242560.6685042981.3685042983.614.978504298TF-1.944-129.94451407.7422236790462.2185036315230.28547790469543162114128WETL
2025-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025143-14130.05624.63827.347151.217546471710.5066931871.3266931873.414.736693187TF-1.944-129.94451407.0768421602361.5571612969210.28547790469543162114128WETL
2025-02-14 03:00:04FORECAST2025143-14132.10825.32228.715151.511581440120.5066931871.3266931873.484.806693187TF0.108-125.89251407.2193050047261.6984408942130.37373470527354162114128WETL
2025-02-13 23:00:03FORECAST2025143-14128.68822.85625.772156.974876534430.4720474991.9620474993.515.472047499TF-3.312-134.31251409.8470625045564.3356920346510.23276404684965161115127.5WETL
2025-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025143-14130.45226.00628.229156.598316824680.7507878072.1107878073.375.480787807TF-1.548-130.54851409.6671110346464.1531800464550.301731750568281621151210WETL
2025-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2025143-14130.6525.46628.058156.768522439010.7507878072.1107878073.425.530787807TF-1.35-126.3551409.7484707146164.2356623255740.310011528887941621151210WETL
2025-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2025143-14132.21626.31229.264148.221147426650.0173228440.3473228443.433.777322844TF0.216-125.78451405.6189742750560.1213097850680.37862228886439162112124DRYL
2025-02-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025143-14132.25225.77229.012148.529819791780.0019685050.2619685053.483.741968505TF0.252-129.74851405.7696688639660.2688957933330.38025584971348162112124DRYL
2025-02-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025143-14132.32425.729.012148.454310786250.0019685050.2619685053.433.691968505TF0.324-127.67651405.7328161016360.232785577730.38352935767438162112124DRYL
2025-02-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025143-14133.4426.4229.93149.9156051104200.193.293.48FF1.44-124.5651406.4447585806660.9324119265760.43519417771324162112124DRYL
2025-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025143-14133.09827.30230.2152.7505405074800.523.453.97TF1.098-124.90251407.8184255703762.2944849347820.41919967162045162113126DRYL
2025-02-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025143-14133.00826.70829.858153.404360264200.593.464.05TF1.008-125.99251408.1338324848362.6095094745110.41501156573487162113126WETL
2025-02-12 11:00:03FORECAST2025143-14132.95425.64629.3151.5335506035900.463.313.77TF0.954-127.04651407.2299450100661.7089994794780.41250329746976162112124DRYL
2025-02-12 07:00:05FORECAST2025143-14133.49426.29429.894150.6824901957800.43.343.74TF1.494-125.50651406.8173289897961.3002481869790.43773005060169162112124DRYL
2025-02-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025143-14133.40426.25829.831153.175278971040.0566929440.5966929443.353.946692944TF1.404-121.59651408.0233817813762.499095331070.43350506852798162113126DRYL
2025-02-11 23:00:03FORECAST2025143-14134.75425.80830.281158.198058659030.0035433090.5535433093.854.403543309TF2.754-123.24651410.4304142313664.9292947460230.4974072084048162113126WETL
2025-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025143-14134.59225.35829.975156.029240024420.0035433090.3735433093.623.993543309TF2.592-123.40851409.3948321143763.8775645247310.48970277010101162112124DRYL
2025-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2025143-14133.7125.46629.588158.466679631740.1610237090.7410237093.654.391023709TF1.71-125.2951410.5582805916765.0598075206770.44789811238217162113126WETL
2025-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2025143-14132.5426.43829.489164.191768876910.3236222221.1736222224.285.453622222TF0.54-125.4651413.262840526867.854356797190.39339898850514162114128WETL
2025-02-11 07:00:04FORECAST2025143-14130.97424.6227.797163.356422570390.2850395241.1150395244.215.325039524TF-1.026-127.02651412.8706652573867.4450748607010.32376872338502162114128WETL
2025-02-11 03:00:06FORECAST2025143-14131.17224.69227.932171.719878077110.3940947012.0940947014.686.774094701TT-0.828-122.82851416.7598208976571.5659456319820.332297520989141621151210WETL
2025-02-10 23:00:03FORECAST2025143-14129.46225.66427.563169.449885620270.1877953771.7977953773.945.737795377TF-2.538-127.53851415.7123895956470.4424168679120.261907987752951621151210WETL
2025-02-10 19:00:03FORECAST2025143-14127.46424.94426.204168.470643008470.1834646661.5534646663.825.373464666TF-4.536-133.53651415.2586746588869.9588959346280.19058018283269161115127.5WETL
2025-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2025143-14126.70824.8925.799160.367587102150.027559070.477559073.824.29755907TF-5.292-135.29251411.4606433531565.9849505620420.16703518748269161112123WETL
2025-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025143-14130.79426.4228.607167.3906170991400.594.825.41TF-1.206-137.20651414.7569530924769.4264223243080.31609456306919162113126WETL
2025-02-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025143-14130.16428.05829.111166.9597289676100.754.575.32TF-1.836-134.83651414.5564013851769.2142244170550.2898692938051162113126WETL
2025-02-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025143-14130.07429.87629.975166.5304392212800.614.515.12TF-1.926-128.92651414.356375232769.0029491616380.28620760139673162113126WETL