MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 15, 2025

[ Friday, February 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 16, 2025 ]

DAY 138 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/16/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.268
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -107

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.94 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 46
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 396.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -146

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-16 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025138-14627.6499419.1199223.38493136.587653333330.250.643.33.94TF-4.35006-107.3500646396.05359183883 54.0960307035030.2679688530908616 2113126DRYL
2025-02-16 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025138-14627.6499419.1199223.38493136.587653333330.250.643.33.94TF-4.35006-107.3500646396.05359183883 54.0960307035030.2679688530908616 2113126DRYL
2025-02-15 11:00:01FORECAST2025138-14626.85217.1522.001138.565977792830.4031498240.7931498243.34.093149824TF-5.148-108.14846397.0653147078255.0197435801060.23827649900416161113124.5WETL
2025-02-15 07:00:03FORECAST2025138-14626.6916.8821.785138.48320655530.3799214650.7699214653.34.069921465TF-5.31-108.3146397.02308699754.9810301638270.23247588627091161113124.5WETL
2025-02-15 03:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.58218.03222.307138.526563516040.3811025680.7711025683.34.071102568TF-5.418-108.41846397.0452076865155.0013081813250.22865278482183161113124.5WETL
2025-02-14 23:00:01FORECAST2025138-14626.02417.621.812137.72952848560.4118112460.8418112463.34.141811246TF-5.976-113.97646396.6381715134954.6287883419460.20947120469896161113124.5WETL
2025-02-14 19:00:01FORECAST2025138-14625.93417.6921.812137.63480454540.3901576910.8201576913.34.120157691TF-6.066-114.06646396.5897423316754.5845516705310.20646838885002161113124.5WETL
2025-02-14 15:00:01FORECAST2025138-14626.31218.0522.181137.783496739280.4322836980.8622836983.34.162283698TF-5.688-113.68846396.6657584661654.6539952382060.21925092035335161113124.5WETL
2025-02-14 11:00:01FORECAST2025138-14626.52817.67222.1138.277105745520.4267718840.8567718843.34.156771884TF-5.472-113.47246396.9179011953654.8846585958820.22675453066524161113124.5WETL
2025-02-14 07:00:03FORECAST2025138-14626.72618.24822.487137.899292380120.4220474720.8420474723.34.142047472TF-5.274-113.27446396.7249369647354.7080880769820.23375809558285161113124.5WETL
2025-02-14 03:00:03FORECAST2025138-14626.67217.97822.325137.956607259320.4003939170.8403939173.34.140393917TF-5.328-113.32846396.754221857154.7348663632180.23183624878981161113124.5WETL
2025-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2025138-14625.89817.81621.857138.727206600410.488189240.828189243.34.12818924TF-6.102-120.10246397.1475439249155.0951693769160.2052744249247161113124.5WETL
2025-02-13 19:00:01FORECAST2025138-14626.94218.3222.631138.307746141380.377952960.747952963.34.04795296TF-5.058-119.05846396.9335423412154.8989836091260.24153294833331161113124.5WETL
2025-02-13 15:00:02FORECAST2025138-14627.87818.55423.216138.394591475750.3940947010.7840947013.34.084094701TF-4.122-117.12246396.9778680701954.9395898764880.27678468263766162113126WETL
2025-02-13 11:00:02FORECAST2025138-14627.57218.48223.027140.051260747140.4984254660.9084254663.34.208425466TF-4.428-118.42846397.8215599884655.7154110287780.26498873300625162113126WETL
2025-02-13 07:00:02FORECAST2025138-14627.06818.48222.775140.586880143520.4141734520.9441734523.34.244173452TF-4.932-119.93246398.0935762799655.9667338943760.24613222350092161113124.5WETL
2025-02-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025138-14626.88818.24822.568140.517061831540.4007876180.9007876183.34.200787618TF-5.112-119.11246398.0581397639655.9339602377620.2395761895085161113124.5WETL
2025-02-12 23:00:01FORECAST2025138-14626.63617.49222.064142.422098776030.4039372260.9039372263.34.203937226TF-5.364-118.36446399.0227975537656.829664287090.23055991467805161113124.5WETL
2025-02-12 19:00:01FORECAST2025138-14626.65417.83422.244142.514143828630.3933072990.9233072993.34.223307299TF-5.346-118.34646399.0692885017956.8730179791320.23119759116233161113124.5WETL
2025-02-12 15:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.3317.88822.109142.586167312070.3830710730.9030710733.34.203071073TF-5.67-118.6746399.1056591952356.9069462972070.21987072778235161113124.5WETL
2025-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.16817.90622.037142.774744746210.3177167070.9377167073.34.237716707TF-5.832-118.83246399.200856236256.9958003515930.21432868118521161113124.5WETL
2025-02-12 07:00:04FORECAST2025138-14626.36617.79822.082142.931282561540.2783466070.9183466073.34.218346607TF-5.634-118.63446399.2798445139257.0695802773460.22111334919019161113124.5WETL
2025-02-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025138-14626.7817.9622.37142.973632269870.3492127870.9392127873.34.239212787TF-5.22-116.2246399.3012085892157.0895441617470.23568872560596161113124.5WETL
2025-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.56417.76222.163144.940958594890.3712600430.9312600433.34.231260043TF-5.436-120.43646400.2911331198858.0185805514310.22801904559491161113124.5WETL
2025-02-11 19:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.616.93421.767144.362943917420.3244096240.8244096243.34.124409624TF-5.4-120.446400.000799147457.7452929342410.22928751024463161113124.5WETL
2025-02-11 15:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.76217.11421.938144.242807579050.4043309270.8143309273.34.114330927TF-5.238-121.23846399.9404017240457.6885264089680.2350442085702161113124.5WETL
2025-02-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025138-14627.06817.622.334145.661481268960.6334649091.1034649093.34.403464909TF-4.932-119.93246400.6524518290858.3596296074640.24613222350092161114126WETL
2025-02-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025138-14627.12217.54622.334145.64640229420.6192916731.1492916733.34.449291673TF-4.878-119.87846400.6448969857858.3524878435090.24811760368196161114126WETL
2025-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2025138-14626.54617.47422.01145.407144157120.6090554471.0590554473.34.359055447TF-5.454-121.45446400.524985536758.2391943104640.22738629380065161114126WETL
2025-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.83416.59221.713145.645050394060.232283590.822283593.294.11228359TF-5.166-123.16646400.6442196448458.3518475602640.23762810261448161113124.5WETL
2025-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.49215.72821.11145.397997846580.2307087860.7707087863.294.060708786TF-5.508-123.50846400.5204001403858.2348642771220.22549397522295161113124.5WETL
2025-02-10 15:00:02FORECAST2025138-14627.03216.05221.542145.379988350870.1665355230.7565355233.294.046535523TF-4.968-122.96846400.5113709779458.2263384471650.24481337820524161113124.5WETL
2025-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025138-14624.76415.18819.976145.088072305210.2937009460.6037009463.293.893700946TF-7.236-128.23646400.3649595986358.0881802067190.16979318459152161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-10 07:00:03FORECAST2025138-14624.8914.9919.94145.504440050060.2602363610.5802363613.313.890236361TF-7.11-128.1146400.5737571067858.2852602265690.1735297214194161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025138-14625.66415.31420.489145.089399563980.3598427140.5298427143.33.829842714TF-6.336-124.33646400.36562553558.088808214930.19761396260833161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025138-14627.82415.63821.731148.011708442240.5751971611.0151971613.134.145197161TF-4.176-127.17646401.8264287009459.4750162092720.27468451089553162114128WETL
2025-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025138-14627.98616.35822.172148.845286812190.6976381721.1576381723.094.247638172TF-4.014-128.01446402.2411339479859.8716969501470.28100844994565162114128WETL
2025-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025138-14627.06816.08821.578150.304139655090.8224413891.4124413893.084.492441389TF-4.932-125.93246402.9648035781960.5672781131040.24613222350092161114126WETL
2025-02-09 11:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.13214.7220.426146.659109590930.5641735330.8341735333.093.924173533TF-5.868-126.86846401.1516396378858.8325422802330.21310822067504161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-09 07:00:03FORECAST2025138-14627.39215.40421.398146.593648053320.5122050010.8222050013.113.932205001TF-4.608-119.60846401.1189231145558.8014862425810.25817110583781162113126DRYL
2025-02-09 03:00:03FORECAST2025138-14627.15815.20621.182146.866432124840.5122050010.8222050013.123.942205001TF-4.842-119.84246401.2552198991258.9309225180510.24944591396385162113126DRYL
2025-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2025138-14628.00415.51221.758141.823748620850.4220474720.9020474722.963.862047472TF-3.996-124.99646398.7203123114756.5480093432890.28171542404706162113126DRYL
2025-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025138-14628.23815.45821.848141.679062917470.4255907810.9055907812.963.865590781TF-3.762-124.76246398.6470999883156.4799475611110.2909831633683162113126DRYL
2025-02-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.54615.11620.831137.283460190370.1618111110.2818111112.943.221811111FF-5.454-126.45446396.4100099201754.4205378159390.22738629380065161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025138-14626.49215.29620.894139.683040295910.3098426870.4898426872.893.379842687FF-5.508-130.50846397.6343430994155.5427739701920.22549397522295161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025138-14627.10416.66421.884139.715184351540.3129922950.5229922952.953.472992295FF-4.896-129.89646397.6506933019955.5578399222040.24745486403626161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025138-14629.82216.77223.297145.379182381110.7181106241.3781106242.964.338110624TF-2.178-129.17846400.5109668907958.225956901250.35712978776919162114128WETL
2025-02-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025138-14631.76617.85224.809153.25617086351.2897644762.0597644762.944.999764476TF-0.234-127.23446404.4209925372761.9800127330790.444379961093771621151210WETL
2025-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025138-14628.77819.29224.035155.667009200021.2586620972.19866209735.198662097TF-3.222-128.22246405.6021468155363.1388731198790.312895764571121621151210WETL
2025-02-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025138-14628.5818.73423.657155.746815623041.2728353332.2528353332.965.212835333TF-3.42-126.4246405.6411232386763.1773132301740.304778543276711621151210WETL
2025-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025138-14629.49819.5824.539153.041411906691.3456700181.8956700182.994.885670018TF-2.502-126.50246404.3154233180161.877003240240.343160311471211621151210WETL
2025-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025138-14629.2119.50824.359153.487686887121.3322841842.0022841842.974.972284184TF-2.79-130.7946404.5347345567262.0911006726090.330919625153951621151210WETL
2025-02-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025138-14624.85417.18621.02152.956008547791.0720478231.6220478232.944.562047823TF-7.146-139.14646404.2734255193861.8360495293870.1724568509583161115127.5WETL
2025-02-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025138-14624.3515.00819.679154.247609733660.8492130571.3792130573.014.389213057TF-7.65-146.6546404.9076089937462.4560308502560.15788148386903161114126WETL
2025-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2025138-14624.3514.91819.634158.317380441891.2791345491.7091345493.14.809134549TF-7.65-140.6546406.8923373762764.418128975290.15788148386903161115127.5WETL
2025-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025138-14634.5569.62622.091152.51740120231.3492133271.4492133273.074.519213327TF2.556-134.44446404.0575931801961.6258140478980.573330991056911631141210WETL
2025-02-06 11:00:04FORECAST2025138-14625.78.97817.339146.278878203790.2263780750.5863780752.983.566378075TF-6.3-151.346400.961530699258.6522029135550.19878114156942161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025138-14621.5610.74216.151147.204919828190.2338583940.5938583943.093.683858394TF-10.44-156.4446401.4242143150859.0916192853440.092030188026801161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2025138-14631.20812.88422.046149.697253973030.6500003510.9700003513.14.070000351TF-0.792-141.79246402.664081273360.2777072401840.41885619059832162113126WETL
2025-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2025138-14615.96211.58813.775148.8989762898500.493.654.14TF-16.038-161.03846402.267814377459.897265755150.023725305213347161112123WETL
2025-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2025138-14616.66412.61414.639155.06538479960.0051181130.8751181133.724.595118113TF-15.336-159.33646405.3080668323462.8492513457380.028707902358399161113124.5WETL
2025-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025138-14624.81812.61418.716165.288158010230.1137795892.0237795893.695.713779589TF-7.182-148.18246410.2445120793467.80855973540.17138821032932161115127.5WETL
2025-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025138-14611.2287.169.194155.7596557636800.963.484.44TF-20.772-172.77246405.647393459263.1834983666380.0055944001422565161113124.5WETL
2025-02-05 07:00:05FORECAST2025138-14621.79418.39220.093158.061304190430.0169291431.0469291433.654.696929143TF-10.206-145.20646406.7680591466264.2942899317240.096617246610313161114126WETL
2025-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025138-14621.63221.48821.56153.0137157508200.643.624.26TF-10.368-147.36846404.3018045055261.8637213921510.093424139795514161113124.5WETL