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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 14, 2025

[ Thursday, February 13, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 15, 2025 ]

DAY 137 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/08/2025 03:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.178
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -102

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 136 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 395.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025137-14724.58414.84619.715136.053805208770.0200787510.1200787512.943.060078751FF-7.416-102.41645395.0101893920653.7426393630290.17787817413119161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025137-14724.04415.20619.625137.408292337820.0381889970.1781889972.893.068188997FF-7.956-105.95645395.7070115903354.3734247287280.16337120007383161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025137-14723.7216.30420.012137.511409897310.0716535820.2116535822.953.161653582FF-8.28-106.2845395.7599627602654.4215104600710.15504588538111161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025137-14723.03616.39419.715140.788185228460.2307087860.6607087862.963.620708786TF-8.964-107.96445397.4353941909355.9542078936980.13840333813988161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025137-14722.67616.01619.346144.543328182990.2035434170.7735434172.943.713543417TF-9.324-108.32445399.3383485751657.7216939741540.130150347482161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025137-14723.91817.07820.498146.394348642620.2830710190.94307101933.943071019TF-8.082-106.08245400.269713276558.5972239564830.16009977623092161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025137-14723.64817.00620.327146.361170375790.2826773180.9826773182.963.942677318TF-8.352-104.35245400.2530577175258.5815059740260.15323444422839161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025137-14724.51216.35820.435143.450701008530.1763780480.5463780482.993.536378048TF-7.488-105.48845398.786520397857.2062059038170.17589840583705161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-07 07:00:03FORECAST2025137-14724.18815.78219.985143.958918669680.2748032980.6748032982.973.644803298TF-7.812-108.81245399.0433847592557.4458541722320.16716262641584161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025137-14722.65812.6517.654143.364000219180.2964568530.5464568532.943.486456853TF-9.342-113.34245398.7426667977957.1653437701950.12974680553916161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025137-14721.39814.8118.104145.192565393770.3224411190.6524411192.893.542441119TF-10.602-119.60245399.6655193148858.0284620487620.10362027079168161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2025137-14721.34412.88417.114144.744627064690.2531497430.5531497432.983.533149743TF-10.656-113.65645399.439847030457.8167716931930.102592502593161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025137-14718.9685.93612.452141.002671903550.0263779670.0963779673.073.166377967FF-13.032-118.03245397.544576793556.0548475286510.064373126994679161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 11:00:04FORECAST2025137-14716.884.8210.85143.629249479980.0440945120.3640945122.983.344094512FF-15.12-126.1245398.8768004995157.2903754907190.040849157080934161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025137-14717.0787.89812.488144.494508529690.0366141930.3566141933.093.446614193FF-14.922-126.92245399.3137250226257.6986404463050.042728320290129161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2025137-14720.96610.88615.926144.1454212157900.323.13.42FF-11.034-122.03445399.1375641035857.5338523007560.095604354484391161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2025137-14723.369.44616.403148.8989762898500.53.644.14TF-8.64-125.6445401.5229978168459.7863633317580.14612903620813161113124.5WETL
2025-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2025137-14720.759.48215.116154.972442749460.0303149771.0803149773.514.590314977TF-11.25-125.2545404.5291810053562.6908753438390.091771285017212161114126WETL
2025-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025137-14725.9715.1720.57164.01807432880.8610240872.1010240873.55.601024087TF-6.03-122.0345408.9213996064967.0705005152950.21867973082879161115127.5WETL
2025-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025137-14723.59411.49817.546155.759655763680.4751971070.9551971073.484.435197107TF-8.406-133.40645404.9154437306463.0694901288810.15188507853799161113124.5WETL
2025-02-05 07:00:05FORECAST2025137-14731.33415.31423.324157.826793889870.5177168151.1677168153.514.677716815TF-0.666-115.66645405.9260596383664.0660085490720.41736699583161162114128WETL
2025-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025137-14731.2813.15422.217153.013715750820.6385830220.6385830223.624.258583022TF-0.72-117.7245403.5647318114661.7509391604550.41513633667225162113126WETL
2025-02-04 23:00:06FORECAST2025137-14723.9912.0218.005148.575567186260.007874020.007874023.543.54787402FF-8.01-130.0145401.3616158615659.6325297234260.16196389422747161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:04FORECAST2025137-14719.5812.9216.25148.50093688319003.63.6FF-12.42-120.4245401.3243563234959.5970429080820.072960920721222161111121.5DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2025137-14719.54416.48418.014159.106400863410.0334645851.2034645853.574.773464585TF-12.456-96.45645406.5490007775764.6845482883350.072432704540412161114126WETL
2025-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025137-14725.4321.90223.666155.8382052978800.873.544.41TF-6.57-81.5745404.9539433612663.1072957617180.2021803475806161113124.5WETL
2025-02-04 07:00:05FORECAST2025137-14726.31224.0825.196160.034235536290.0578740471.1478740473.544.687874047TF-5.688-95.68845406.9994267227665.1338421192830.2295175743267161114126WETL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025137-14726.36626.0626.213156.3603902148100.983.324.3TF-5.634-100.63445405.209687662863.3587448817750.23125586131856161113124.5WETL