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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 9, 2025

[ Saturday, February 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, February 10, 2025 ]

DAY 132 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/08/2025 03:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 19.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 11.14°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 15.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.051
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -12

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 135 in
SWE DAY: 40
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 390.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -152

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-08 15:00:01FORECAST2025132-15219.11211.13815.125135.046478061170.007874020.307874022.592.89787402FF-12.888-11.88840390.5886773180252.7476252423670.051243582731062161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 11:00:01FORECAST2025132-15218.84210.79614.819136.209338676960.0007874020.3007874022.592.890787402FF-13.158-12.15840391.2001022987153.2851072244650.048302058532773161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025132-15218.8610.63414.747136.0379397530100.352.592.94FF-13.14-11.1440391.1100952319853.2058115719620.048493876930482161112123DRYL
2025-02-08 03:00:03FORECAST2025132-15218.80610.1314.468136.1318005576700.362.592.95FF-13.194-11.19440391.1593894015453.249231984270.047920236861366161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 23:00:01FORECAST2025132-15219.2210.3114.765138.451538588960.0070866180.3270866182.592.917086618FF-12.78-12.7840392.3739512116854.3247772474860.052459247154929161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 19:00:01FORECAST2025132-15219.411.8415.62138.745378623150.0094488240.3794488242.592.969448824FF-12.6-11.640392.5272891066654.4613473470210.054535938556397161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 15:00:01FORECAST2025132-15219.43611.71415.575138.451648592720.0098425250.3298425252.592.919842525FF-12.564-11.56440392.3740086376154.324828360810.054958950204898161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 11:00:01FORECAST2025132-15219.1311.58815.359138.778921260090.0531496350.3331496352.592.923149635FF-12.87-11.8740392.5447857666954.4769419149730.051444627656456161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 07:00:03FORECAST2025132-15218.42811.60615.017138.166065999230.0606299540.3006299542.592.890629954FF-13.572-10.57240392.2248701531954.1921672961250.0440548823719161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025132-15218.82411.2115.017138.041419321970.0488189240.2788189242.592.868818924FF-13.176-10.17640392.1597425712754.1342874654750.048110845579964161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 23:00:01FORECAST2025132-15219.1311.28215.206138.710644366640.0318897810.3018897812.572.871889781FF-12.87-17.8740392.5091692975854.4451997930820.051444627656456161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025132-15220.15611.5715.863139.167953891980.055118140.385118142.572.95511814FF-11.844-13.84440392.7476058364354.6578807002320.063973427983476161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025132-15220.31810.81415.566139.56647078780.047244120.457244122.573.02724412FF-11.682-13.68240392.9551627767754.8433652465990.066151503679433161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025132-15219.8511.01215.431139.116324207530.035433090.355433092.572.92543309FF-12.15-15.1540392.7207005107254.6338602952570.060011384355636161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:03FORECAST2025132-15218.73411.69615.215140.249181840770.0326771830.4626771832.583.042677183FF-13.266-15.26640393.3102468029355.1614403237010.047163820095875161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025132-15218.89611.91215.404140.406365433130.0299212760.4899212762.583.069921276FF-13.104-15.10440393.3919122065655.2347285837120.048879334900455161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025132-15218.3212.1115.215141.533862475360.0523622330.4823622333.053.532362233TF-13.68-24.6840393.9767533112555.7610516216410.042997764753895161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025132-15218.42812.0215.224140.828549407190.0492126250.40921262533.409212625FF-13.572-24.57240393.6110983582855.4316800123670.0440548823719161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025132-15218.10412.39815.251141.030045726950.0618110570.4218110573.023.441811057FF-13.896-25.89640393.7156268002455.5257328510530.040944842766701161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025132-15218.2310.65214.441144.814014503070.090551230.4505512333.45055123FF-13.77-25.7740395.6686993248857.2983727624450.04213252395409161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 07:00:03FORECAST2025132-15218.78811.13814.963144.25952445330.0933071370.4633071372.963.423307137FF-13.212-21.21240395.3836751375957.0378609519480.047730231165726161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025132-15219.77811.10215.44143.674906812560.0948819410.3448819412.973.314881941FF-12.222-21.22240395.0827294266356.7634743336230.059107566315629161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 23:00:04FORECAST2025132-15220.62414.1817.402145.313914465110.1106299810.2506299812.953.200629981FF-11.376-30.37640395.9253187352957.5334579012710.070421288477227161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2025132-15221.52414.14417.834145.166804572180.0724409840.2224409842.993.212440984FF-10.476-27.47640395.8498349502757.4642556301560.084204533211334161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025132-15222.62212.72217.672144.924056936780.0602362530.19023625333.190236253FF-9.378-24.37840395.7252166482257.3501038288480.10363785574384161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025132-15222.69412.41617.555144.088931260720.1070866720.1470866722.852.997086672FF-9.306-25.30640395.2959044408756.9577644026260.10501706773212161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025132-15221.9212.84817.384143.909777922810.1228347120.1628347122.812.972834712FF-10.08-27.0840395.2036885730856.8736750568270.09087213606227161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025132-15221.79413.02817.411144.92019863220.1200788050.2400788052.863.100078805FF-10.206-29.20640395.7232353067157.3482898640260.088709572656756161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 23:00:03FORECAST2025132-15220.19213.71216.952143.044451086670.0578740470.3778740472.923.297874047FF-11.808-37.80840394.7576862747156.4678965454110.06445257711801161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025132-15220.22813.20816.718143.093331909820.0653543660.4453543662.863.305354366FF-11.772-36.77240394.7829063083756.4908014447080.064934500320714161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025132-15221.54213.47817.51142.988885424550.0704724790.4104724792.883.290472479FF-10.458-34.45840394.7290133989556.4418616706480.08449944016084161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025132-15222.78414.32418.554143.205680982340.0165354420.2365354422.993.226535442FF-9.216-36.21640394.8408608822356.5434543622950.10675964196797161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025132-15223.41413.24418.329142.52106280350.0051181130.2051181132.923.125118113FF-8.586-35.58640394.4874480269756.2227703554430.11954184404889161112123DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:04FORECAST2025132-15221.84813.58617.717143.829029408480.1885827790.3685827792.913.278582779FF-10.152-37.15240395.1621110473756.8357828909510.08963166133389161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025132-15222.65814.57618.617140.302322557930.1964567990.5264567992.923.446456799FF-9.342-37.34240393.3378599366955.1862152990850.10432581532497161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025132-15222.49614.46818.482140.681127287910.1992127060.5392127062.963.499212706TF-9.504-38.50440393.5345876091955.3628894116430.10125584464336161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025132-15223.7215.49419.607140.715074234430.0889764260.6089764262.923.528976426TF-8.28-34.2840393.5522083070955.3787282070540.12612417324088161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025132-15223.77417.63620.705144.032115501310.228346580.768346582.923.68834658TF-8.226-33.22640395.2666641229656.9310938207760.12731141921116161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025132-15223.16217.65420.408144.779768952340.2767718030.9067718032.893.796771803TF-8.838-31.83840395.6511077332457.2822759633570.11430548593332161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2025132-15221.52414.14417.834144.810537448950.2157481480.7357481483.013.745748148TF-10.476-36.47640395.6669132672857.2967383610040.084204533211334161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025132-15221.99212.48817.24128.041176453270.0145669370.1045669372.913.014566937FF-10.008-43.00840386.8668766574249.534890018020.092125260188559161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025132-15221.61411.98416.799129.423219944880.0913386320.2613386322.923.181338632FF-10.386-43.38640387.6063865784850.1652666221860.085686792775383161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025132-15221.41611.71416.565129.931627037170.0948819410.2648819412.993.254881941FF-10.584-41.58440387.8777748135350.397590373080.082451240943068161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025132-15221.21812.70416.961136.38892665940.0129921330.5629921333.073.632992133TF-10.782-49.78240391.2943676740453.3682188149320.079308236306933161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025132-15220.7512.59616.673135.879059853260.015748040.485748043.043.52574804TF-11.25-49.2540391.0266273024453.1323304954490.072239604329886161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025132-15223.01816.53819.778141.132173110060.0051181130.9151181133.264.175118113TF-8.982-46.98240393.7685860829255.5734162563590.1113874310006161113124.5WETL
2025-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2025132-15223.37817.25820.318135.390918763740.1551181941.5051181944.095.595118194TF-8.622-42.62240390.7699704040652.9067053182870.11878363612762161115127.5WETL
2025-01-31 19:00:04FORECAST2025132-15223.19815.09819.148132.568038323110.0307086781.1807086784.025.200708678TF-8.802-51.80240389.279486914251.6060179396410.11504340257367161114126WETL
2025-01-31 15:00:07FORECAST2025132-15228.63414.12621.38127.7131621823500.733.924.65TF-3.366-47.36640386.6909798275549.3855278211690.26586437716713162113126WETL
2025-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2025132-15232.9916.19624.593131.031064908190.0027559070.0627559073.954.012755907TF0.99-42.0140388.4634588762350.9007806944690.43444749728479162111122WETL
2025-01-31 07:00:05FORECAST2025132-15232.28816.46624.377131.643536292080.0031496080.0631496084.214.273149608TF0.288-38.71240388.7890212515451.1815616290880.40545924070746162111122WETL
2025-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2025132-15232.46819.63426.051137.755837910280.0114173290.5014173294.414.911417329TF0.468-29.53240392.0104492242454.0017279024710.41284951818383162113126WETL
2025-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2025132-15219.77816.93418.356139.960404635130.0090551230.5290551234.414.939055123TF-12.222-58.22240393.1601263760755.0268503739930.059107566315629161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2025132-15227.520.82224.161141.071222713150.1870079750.8370079754.25.037007975TF-4.5-43.540393.7369812341755.5449573700910.22806945298863161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2025132-15227.39220.17423.783138.05717564550.2011812110.6011812113.924.521181211TF-4.608-50.60840392.1679763500654.1416031934990.22463431227026161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2025132-15225.48423.07224.278137.845840782030.0728346850.3328346854.384.712834685TF-6.516-39.51640392.0575116977354.0434973348820.16894597690767161112123WETL
2025-01-30 07:00:04FORECAST2025132-15218.30216.41217.357137.3883607596700.254.424.67TF-13.698-49.69840391.8181838568553.8312579959260.042823581161669161112123WETL
2025-01-30 03:00:05FORECAST2025132-15217.31216.6116.961134.602444527600.034.374.4TF-14.688-44.68840390.3547303397752.5427009366440.034085789802715161111121.5WETL