MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 7, 2025

[ Thursday, February 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 8, 2025 ]

DAY 130 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/08/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 17.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 15.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.012
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 25

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 135 in
SWE DAY: 38
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 388.77 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -154

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-08 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025130-15417.5200813.7899415.65501134.602749166670.0699999999999360.299999999999942.362.6599999999999FF-14.4799224.5200838388.77153898966 52.3297179457640.01211180306334716 1112123DRYL
2025-02-08 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025130-15417.5200813.7899415.65501134.602749166670.0699999999999360.299999999999942.362.6599999999999FF-14.4799224.5200838388.77153898966 52.3297179457640.01211180306334716 1112123DRYL
2025-02-07 11:00:01FORECAST2025130-15416.26810.52613.397137.27441649450.047244120.277244122.362.63724412FF-15.73223.26838390.1858877106753.5625400598720.0077111849918537161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 07:00:02FORECAST2025130-15418.1410.00414.072136.789814861160.0468504190.2768504192.362.636850419FF-13.8625.1438389.9300574546253.3384603680180.015001574499515161112123DRYL
2025-02-07 03:00:03FORECAST2025130-15418.510.54414.522136.619582824880.0181102460.2481102462.362.608110246FF-13.525.538389.8401140178553.2597937455240.016937285012943161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 23:00:01FORECAST2025130-15419.18410.20214.693137.107362603760.0192913490.2292913492.362.589291349FF-12.81617.18438390.0977324045253.485271247690.021205580760328161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025130-15420.01211.01215.512137.109437624130.019685050.229685052.362.58968505FF-11.98818.01238390.0988276342453.4862308747650.027553755572653161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 15:00:02FORECAST2025130-15420.15611.40815.782137.179901528920.0311023790.2411023792.362.601102379FF-11.84418.15638390.1360162105153.5188202866430.028805002059935161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 11:00:01FORECAST2025130-15419.63411.35415.494137.253568594360.0334645850.2434645852.362.603464585FF-12.36617.63438390.1748881956453.5528957807580.024482704685917161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 07:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.6712.07415.872137.860958107950.0409449040.2609449042.362.620944904FF-12.3317.6738390.4951130543153.834030422140.024762269338765161112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025130-15420.19211.9316.061137.853897882680.0405512030.2605512032.362.620551203FF-11.80818.19238390.4913936348853.8307607022070.029125070223165161112123DRYL
2025-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.1849.98614.585138.852515258750.0531496350.7431496352.363.103149635FF-12.81611.18438391.0168164579954.2936684736620.021205580760328161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.27411.13815.206138.44843572720.0366141930.6766141932.363.036614193FF-12.72611.27438390.8043704132454.1062537590670.021829630948316161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 15:00:01FORECAST2025130-15418.91411.76815.341138.533556973910.0311023790.6911023792.363.051102379FF-13.08610.91438390.8491412981354.1457217842280.019423059361231161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025130-15419.1311.315.215142.142127752950.0452756150.6852756152.363.045275615FF-12.8711.1338392.7382510036355.8246506476260.020838427597585161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 07:00:03FORECAST2025130-15419.410.88615.143141.481200443570.0311023790.6311023792.362.991102379FF-12.614.438392.3935453593755.5163098437540.022729242355122161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025130-15418.73411.0314.882141.57917079670.0267716680.6367716682.362.996771668FF-13.26613.73438392.4446781884755.5619921215020.0183066533028161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2025130-15418.73411.0314.882143.619492556030.0055118140.5855118142.372.955511814FF-13.2663.73438393.5066791532156.5152295773920.0183066533028161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.4910.79615.143143.74075195860.0185039470.6385039472.373.008503947FF-12.516.4938393.5696223739156.5719934680870.023390736373175161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.11210.68814.9143.751409474390.015748040.645748042.373.01574804FF-12.8886.11238393.5751535407856.5769830555870.020717242644322161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.3110.0414.675143.052402071130.0023622060.4823622062.372.852362206FF-12.696.3138393.2120568668656.2499292581370.022083548227493161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025130-15417.8889.15813.523142.81224349170.003937010.453937012.362.81393701FF-14.1124.88838393.0871585598356.1376590017070.013762342160984161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025130-15417.4749.21213.343143.457269717950.0322834820.5322834822.362.892283482FF-14.5263.47438393.4224423476256.4393094249550.011917675536754161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025130-15418.3211.26414.792141.158086563130.1291339280.5791339282.473.049133928FF-13.68-3.6838392.2248150800355.3657043992750.015944307854443161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025130-15418.33811.5714.954140.720978928590.1307087320.5407087322.452.990708732FF-13.662-2.66238391.996336697455.162108236480.016041311059942161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025130-15418.69812.05615.377140.799096191980.1224410110.5424410112.463.002441011FF-13.302-3.30238392.0371876064755.1984816886350.018090044405143161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025130-15417.97812.4715.224141.845176457560.0480315220.5780315222.463.038031522FF-14.022-5.02238392.5834480907355.6860684687470.014194411973518161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025130-15417.9611.6614.81141.281789378920.0318897810.4918897812.462.951889781FF-14.04-5.0438392.2894291312355.4233525020960.014107076483001161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025130-15418.82411.64215.233141.216247746040.0267716680.4767716682.462.936771668FF-13.176-4.17638392.2551971084255.3928070945330.018857843390559161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 23:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.50813.04616.277137.120028799040.1437008650.5137008652.553.063700865FF-12.492-6.49238390.104417739853.4911289951160.023524956274506161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.413.0116.205137.485905113660.1578741010.5878741012.533.117874101FF-12.6-6.638390.2974378404753.6603965050380.022729242355122161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:03FORECAST2025130-15419.4914.23416.862137.631235317440.2200788590.6600788592.483.140078859FF-12.51-4.5138390.3740578414753.7276638166040.023390736373175161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.79614.28817.042139.06464568880.0960630440.4760630442.543.016063044FF-12.204-5.20438391.1282574279554.3921125380970.025761864018861161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025130-15419.90414.59417.249139.11265184940.141732360.511732362.523.03173236FF-12.096-3.09638391.1534687372554.4143963161310.026645262667395161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025130-15419.3114.05416.682140.01201718990.1385827520.4985827522.653.148582752FF-12.69-5.6938391.6252189895954.8322368931690.022083548227493161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.1312.9216.025127.628438419710.0562992430.1362992432.832.966299243FF-12.87-12.8738385.033872563449.1412718939590.020838427597585161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025130-15419.07612.7415.908128.06793870490.1055118680.2055118682.823.025511868FF-12.924-13.92438385.271368974749.3409100666050.020476658561572161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2025130-15418.8612.57815.719128.528928660070.1051181670.2051181672.893.095118167FF-13.14-12.1438385.5201932145649.550497410690.019082231579641161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2025130-15420.76811.8416.304134.298959012020.3204726140.5304726142.863.390472614FF-11.232-18.23238388.6101075497752.1899329054840.034659335224505161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:04FORECAST2025130-15420.51610.9415.728133.606600618720.2200788590.4300788592.833.260078859FF-11.484-17.48438388.2417285521151.8716575701820.032140352042372161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025130-15419.8329.44614.639135.476887723990.2503938360.51039383633.510393836TF-12.168-17.16838389.2353543098352.7323943940390.026053573501241161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2025130-15421.7412.3817.06126.229512876050.4767719110.6067719113.964.566771911TF-10.26-15.2638384.2761561626748.5069920022960.045929359209296161113124.5WETL
2025-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2025130-15420.8048.9614.882125.349603969210.3948821030.4948821033.924.414882103TF-11.196-23.19638383.7981796421848.1089498222510.03503204580837161113124.5WETL
2025-01-31 15:00:06FORECAST2025130-15422.0469.60815.827124.313348668010.3629923220.4229923223.864.282992322TF-9.954-23.95438383.2339024224647.6410897332440.050030525299168161112123WETL
2025-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2025130-15421.6869.08615.386130.4518780650400.053.93.95TF-10.314-25.31438386.5549889180750.4268242797740.045234387678246161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-31 07:00:04FORECAST2025130-15422.18.47415.287131.0891575003600.064.154.21TF-9.9-20.938386.8968141953750.7179774124430.050783590737825161111121.5WETL
2025-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2025130-15426.29411.91219.103137.45263033890.4696852930.6796852934.24.879685293TF-5.706-14.70638390.2798909605953.6449975809120.14127009780915161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2025130-15423.913.40618.653139.267232182190.4748034060.6648034064.224.884803406TF-8.1-28.138391.2346285300854.4861638492120.081412134521316161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2025130-15425.35815.47620.417137.430286355710.4775593130.6675593134.014.677559313TF-6.642-22.64238390.2681074132553.6346577573050.11505247436257161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2025130-15421.30810.83216.07133.792905056410.2090552310.2890552313.844.129055231TF-10.692-30.69238388.3409181579251.9572595926210.040602675481823161112123WETL
2025-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2025130-15421.14610.59815.872136.478096971670.2106300350.3506300354.244.590630035TF-10.854-22.85438389.7653292533653.1944304020370.038738836771282161112123WETL
2025-01-30 07:00:04FORECAST2025130-15420.67810.41815.548136.922614010860.212598540.352598544.284.63259854TF-11.322-24.32238390.0001959328553.3998462918740.033741748995803161112123WETL
2025-01-30 03:00:04FORECAST2025130-15420.78611.35416.07134.552852723780.0173228440.1473228444.244.387322844TF-11.214-18.21438388.7450330036252.3067531728370.034845282616114161112123WETL
2025-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2025130-15420.96612.68616.826134.177518387220.1440945660.3540945663.383.734094566TF-11.034-22.03438388.5455402020152.1340763647260.036750033096122161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2025130-15422.40616.01619.211135.335157281810.2307087860.6007087863.393.990708786TF-9.594-11.59438389.1602224905452.6670599185830.055222295655843161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-29 15:00:03FORECAST2025130-15428.81421.14624.98139.52977290380.8484256551.2884256553.224.508425655TF-3.186-3.18638391.3723981013454.6081018278940.23054104181235161114126WETL
2025-01-29 11:00:03FORECAST2025130-15428.05815.85421.956137.813826332070.6507877530.9007877533.584.480787753TF-3.942-1.94238390.4702821519853.8122036523250.20092781961323161113124.5WETL
2025-01-29 07:00:04FORECAST2025130-15427.9518.48223.216139.216245530950.6897641520.9697641523.794.759764152TF-4.05-7.0538391.2078623718754.46248982160.19689156449761161113124.5WETL
2025-01-29 03:00:04FORECAST2025130-15426.1517.20421.677134.277855602140.1964567990.3364567993.684.016456799TF-5.85-12.8538388.5988887539152.1802254712490.13699320854117161112123WETL
2025-01-28 23:00:03FORECAST2025130-15415.3510.61612.983133.4992536759300.083.73.78TF-16.65-26.6538388.1845550748151.822348391010.005447361843593161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2025130-15414.07211.6612.866133.3046814680500.083.593.67FF-17.928-31.92838388.0808852746751.7329987953810.0032804041837641161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2025130-15415.78212.41614.099137.3662422742500.363.844.2TF-16.218-20.21838390.2343287775453.6050233505860.0064264540766517161112123WETL
2025-01-28 11:00:04FORECAST2025130-15420.55219.5820.066141.009556756690.2354331980.8454331983.74.545433198TF-11.448-0.44838392.1472062470555.2965037362710.032490702519328161113124.5WETL
2025-01-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025130-15420.78619.25620.021140.01982641460.2169292510.7969292513.574.366929251TF-11.214-3.21438391.6293104981554.835868074820.034845282616114161113124.5WETL
2025-01-28 03:00:05FORECAST2025130-15420.08419.50819.796142.337342520280.0547244390.5447244394.354.894724439TF-11.9161.08438392.8399543188455.9157951335330.028173611935968161113124.5WETL