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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 5, 2025

[ Tuesday, February 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 6, 2025 ]

DAY 128 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/06/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 20.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 17.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.070
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 55

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 137 in
SWE DAY: 36
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 388.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -156

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-02-06 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025128-15620.4499415.0200617.735137.481680416670.199999999999930.299999999999932.262.5599999999999FF-11.5500655.4499436388.71140285402 53.4406968614910.07041240415649416 1112123DRYL
2025-02-06 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025128-15620.4499415.0200617.735137.481680416670.199999999999930.299999999999932.262.5599999999999FF-11.5500655.4499436388.71140285402 53.4406968614910.07041240415649416 1112123DRYL
2025-02-05 11:00:01FORECAST2025128-15614.187.86211.021141.693928933440.6125987560.7125987562.262.972598756FF-17.8249.1836390.9376044977355.3934851491110.015821967888743161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 07:00:02FORECAST2025128-15616.5747.62812.101141.063133142940.555118410.655118412.262.91511841FF-15.42651.57436390.6057391478555.1000693878090.029350129504295161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-05 03:00:03FORECAST2025128-15617.0966.76411.93141.234928379120.5822837790.6822837792.262.942283779FF-14.90452.09636390.6961743181955.1799461978250.03331796380691161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 23:00:02FORECAST2025128-15617.9247.12412.524143.286722743240.5444884830.6544884832.262.914488483FF-14.07641.92436391.7732200275956.1359007563210.040506604108418161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.64410.9414.792143.149349109820.5500002970.6600002972.262.920000297FF-13.35642.64436391.7012838608556.0717838301630.047733980725612161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 15:00:01FORECAST2025128-15618.78810.90414.846142.931480349420.5165357120.6265357122.262.886535712FF-13.21242.78836391.5871446651655.9701302727950.049296146258649161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.80610.9414.873142.495955491750.3929135980.5029135982.262.762913598FF-13.19442.80636391.3587882632755.7670444736660.049494245513023161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025128-15618.5911.73215.161142.407127138990.3881891860.4881891862.262.748189186FF-13.4143.5936391.312182348155.7256437026810.047158456264862161112123DRYL
2025-02-04 03:00:03FORECAST2025128-15618.46411.15614.81142.957766580990.4637797780.5637797782.262.823779778FF-13.53643.46436391.6009191015455.9823927858170.045837120906023161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.33811.10214.72139.725010678820.3811025680.5911025682.262.851102568FF-13.66235.33836389.8999822809754.4787791878810.044545608499567161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 19:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.51811.51615.017139.357938049660.3468505810.5368505812.262.796850581FF-13.48234.51836389.7059600173354.3086190336770.046399730175777161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.3211.28214.801139.473200130110.3555120030.5555120032.262.815512003FF-13.6835.3236389.7669031664654.3620372894280.044363515709515161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.2310.56214.396141.077456977120.4716537980.6716537982.262.931653798FF-13.7735.2336390.6132809021555.1067283311640.043462002309926161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 07:00:03FORECAST2025128-15618.28411.51614.9140.864761498430.4401577180.6401577182.262.900157718FF-13.71635.28436390.5012647189155.0078675194650.044001124078684161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-03 03:00:03FORECAST2025128-15618.26610.56214.414140.837437216930.429134090.629134092.262.88913409FF-13.73435.26636390.4868699849854.9951700355460.043820822678744161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 23:00:01FORECAST2025128-15618.4289.53613.982135.893434132090.35433090.58433092.322.9043309FF-13.57231.42836387.8658011095952.7084156951770.045465093352617161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.239.3213.775136.086958711730.4011813190.6111813192.322.931181319FF-13.7731.2336387.9690185604552.7975238102670.043462002309926161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 15:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.62610.61614.621135.637483083050.3940947010.5540947012.322.874094701FF-13.37431.62636387.7292101916652.5906141881740.047541519559813161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.46410.38214.423137.513835878050.255905650.475905652.322.79590565FF-13.53631.46436388.7284876081953.4555454460760.045837120906023161112123DRYL
2025-02-02 07:00:04FORECAST2025128-15617.74411.2114.477137.242568940760.2464568260.4964568262.272.766456826FF-14.25631.74436388.5843150036853.3303096411910.038845518235968161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-02 03:00:04FORECAST2025128-15618.239.73413.982138.108514780520.2425198160.5325198162.362.892519816FF-13.7732.2336389.0441994182453.7303165656320.043462002309926161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 23:00:01FORECAST2025128-15617.8529.10413.478127.097600289360.0736220870.3436220872.562.903622087FF-14.14823.85236383.1205286055648.6936998073590.03983539890214161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2025128-15617.7448.8713.307127.126909037680.086614220.376614222.532.90661422FF-14.25622.74436383.136517100848.7069611584880.038845518235968161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 15:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.5368.70813.622127.58562516190.0850394160.3850394162.592.975039416FF-13.46424.53636383.3866006815948.9146191266560.04658848982004161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2025128-15616.4127.6112.011131.690997461070.2003938090.4903938092.573.060393809FF-15.58819.41236385.6118481848550.7816089202690.028201395609377161113124.5DRYL
2025-02-01 07:00:03FORECAST2025128-15616.6646.67411.669131.767038905320.2122048390.4322048392.613.042204839FF-15.33619.66436385.6528466774550.8163336520950.030004884531027161112123DRYL
2025-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2025128-15616.77.32212.011133.255814074130.2452757230.5352757232.713.245275723FF-15.320.736386.4539413180351.4972345524920.030270146905268161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2025128-15618.1948.25813.226122.263500937770.1279528250.3879528253.74.087952825TF-13.80619.19436380.4670777245946.517236914170.043105549979865161112123WETL
2025-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2025128-15616.6646.94411.804121.952127923070.1035433630.3535433633.674.023543363TF-15.33613.66436380.2950447331546.3777899438070.030004884531027161112123WETL
2025-01-31 15:00:04FORECAST2025128-15616.2686.85411.561121.249745009860.0582677480.2582677483.663.918267748TF-15.73213.26836379.9064795397246.0635637717830.027211873427924161112123DRYL
2025-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2025128-15614.6125.75610.184130.451878065040.0488189240.3288189243.623.948818924TF-17.38811.61236384.9426476979450.2164913395260.017766993592385161112123DRYL
2025-01-31 07:00:04FORECAST2025128-15614.7565.93610.346131.089157500360.0562992430.3462992433.864.206299243TF-17.24414.75636385.2870807443150.5069588105450.018459028587234161112123WETL
2025-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2025128-15614.6484.6049.626131.463543551030.0409449040.3209449043.924.240944904TF-17.35216.64836385.4891668934850.6777718803510.017937897919138161112123WETL
2025-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2025128-15613.6043.9388.771132.660460582650.0133858340.3033858343.934.233385834TF-18.3964.60436386.1339511555751.2247078068950.013514266980511161112123WETL
2025-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2025128-15615.0444.469.752131.268941129970.0129921330.2829921333.744.022992133TF-16.9569.04436385.3841483583550.5889690832780.019911994754856161112123WETL
2025-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2025128-15614.1265.7029.914131.729450388320.082677210.382677213.543.92267721TF-17.8743.12636385.632581448550.7991680060380.015592159056151161112123DRYL
2025-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2025128-15616.529.28412.902134.345821098950.1307087320.5807087323.794.370708732TF-15.4811.5236387.0385450034151.9970111254250.028962987278482161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 07:00:04FORECAST2025128-15616.0888.8712.479134.736013353310.1314961340.5614961343.854.411496134TF-15.91211.08836387.2474238041152.1761740647070.026015764201973161113124.5WETL
2025-01-30 03:00:04FORECAST2025128-15616.348.25812.299133.635101717980.0594488510.4594488513.844.299448851TF-15.6617.3436386.6575483743151.6710208070280.027702962635025161112123WETL
2025-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2025128-15619.8687.5213.694131.159986804970.0956693430.2756693433.23.475669343FF-12.13212.86836385.3253277358350.5392649014510.062345003085303161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2025128-15621.7948.90615.35130.344661333930.0964567450.2864567453.23.486456745FF-10.20619.79436384.8846450187550.1676587075990.092074240655096161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 15:00:03FORECAST2025128-15621.9389.9515.944129.36147409780.1031496620.3131496623.013.323149662FF-10.06219.93836384.352017927549.7203436115640.094659000006911161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 11:00:02FORECAST2025128-15621.97410.00415.989130.234408142690.0385826980.2985826983.323.618582698TF-10.02622.97436384.8249831836250.117453923440.095313439979026161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 07:00:04FORECAST2025128-15621.66810.9416.304131.076788081290.0303149770.2903149773.533.820314977TF-10.33217.66836385.280400697750.5013174341280.089855624668174161112123DRYL
2025-01-29 03:00:04FORECAST2025128-15621.2910.68815.989131.075985699320.0192913490.3092913493.393.699291349TF-10.7116.2936385.2799673678450.500951492940.083437583768257161112123DRYL
2025-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2025128-15621.95611.71416.835132.986192201680.027559070.357559073.373.72755907TF-10.04412.95636386.309085097151.3737742399780.094985806174501161112123DRYL
2025-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2025128-15620.82210.77815.8132.736333009340.027559070.367559073.253.61755907TF-11.17810.82236386.1747579215951.2594212672810.075974889549871161112123DRYL
2025-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2025128-15621.07411.73216.403135.323116386180.1897638820.6497638823.384.029763882TF-10.92620.07436387.5613236022852.4460061006140.079927733473866161113124.5WETL
2025-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2025128-15621.6514.9918.32135.141088394260.3629923220.7329923223.334.062992322TF-10.3529.6536387.4640507986252.3623135385730.089541940059158161113124.5WETL
2025-01-28 07:00:04FORECAST2025128-15621.0214.4517.735134.320330742250.318897810.688897813.23.88889781TF-10.9827.0236387.0248922298451.9853115297960.07906790932379161113124.5DRYL
2025-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2025128-15622.1916.19619.193139.414732970840.3082678831.2682678833.394.658267883TF-9.8132.1936389.735991735954.3349392169870.099309911681905161114126WETL
2025-01-27 23:00:03FORECAST2025128-15622.69416.23219.463146.957573895370.4681104891.6181104893.45.018110489TF-9.30624.69436393.6862061123957.855169726350.10910690817317161115127.5WETL
2025-01-27 19:00:03FORECAST2025128-15620.04814.34217.195147.336841367940.4267718841.4767718843.555.026771884TF-11.95218.04836393.8828385749458.0334533046720.064759689912009161114126WETL
2025-01-27 15:00:03FORECAST2025128-15622.49614.50418.5146.779512911540.6346460121.5046460123.284.784646012TF-9.50418.49636393.5938244500257.7715098377650.10517859629816161115127.5WETL
2025-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2025128-15622.49613.6418.068139.855568513740.2385828061.0585828063.14.158582806TF-9.50422.49636389.968947166654.5393288086890.10517859629816161114126WETL
2025-01-27 07:00:04FORECAST2025128-15620.3548.58214.468140.023257507720.2377954041.1077954043.174.277795404TF-11.64624.35436390.0574923908654.617120699860.069029948073406161114126WETL
2025-01-27 03:00:05FORECAST2025128-15621.748.615.17135.660885069230.0700787780.3200787783.253.570078778FF-10.2613.7436387.7417025917352.6013825518460.091118505261119161112123DRYL
2025-01-26 23:00:03FORECAST2025128-15616.0711.80413.937143.946878591750.0562992430.5362992433.914.446299243TF-15.9311.0736392.118562942256.4442431734130.025898603635891161113124.5WETL
2025-01-26 19:00:03FORECAST2025128-15614.0546.69210.373144.41429957720.0570866450.4970866453.964.457086645TF-17.9464.05436392.3627318365756.6627890983750.015290199392781161113124.5WETL
2025-01-26 15:00:03FORECAST2025128-15613.6946.69210.193144.481671041640.055118140.495118143.934.42511814TF-18.306-0.30636392.3979010880956.694304462440.013854504257244161113124.5WETL
2025-01-26 11:00:03FORECAST2025128-15619.79616.71818.257131.598207774800.142.652.79FF-12.2049.79636385.5618089847650.7392430488050.061398953388548161112123DRYL
2025-01-26 07:00:05FORECAST2025128-15618.24814.41416.331132.668307422370.0192913490.1692913492.712.879291349FF-13.7528.24836386.1381718168951.2282976861140.043641115849233161112123DRYL
2025-01-26 03:00:05FORECAST2025128-15615.76414.50415.134131.7457077100600.152.512.66FF-16.236-0.23636385.6413465528150.8065921238590.023973308274899161112123DRYL