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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 23, 2025

[ Wednesday, January 22, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, January 24, 2025 ]

DAY 115 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/24/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.25°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.785
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 118

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 117 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 366.45 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -169

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-24 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025115-16940.8799425.2533.06497117.1159075001.961.96FF8.87994117.8799423366.44967145976 42.9170858260870.7845231925234716 4111123DRYL
2025-01-24 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025115-16940.8799425.2533.06497117.1159075001.961.96FF8.87994117.8799423366.44967145976 42.9170858260870.7845231925234716 4111123DRYL
2025-01-23 11:00:01FORECAST2025115-16934.21422.67628.445117.9624112001.961.96FF2.214111.21423366.9467826850743.2859272676140.51345048094812163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 07:00:03FORECAST2025115-16935.22223.10829.165117.62192315001.961.96FF3.222112.22223366.7469587907843.1374826023850.55871289230968163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-23 03:00:04FORECAST2025115-16935.622.80229.201117.60755675001.961.96FF3.6112.623366.7385237107743.1312217397250.57552218522343163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 23:00:01FORECAST2025115-16935.70822.87429.291117.9347608001.961.96FF3.70899.70823366.9305618054143.2738680367310.58030110213026163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 19:00:01FORECAST2025115-16935.622.92829.264117.9351544001.961.96FF3.699.623366.9307927156143.274039693030.57552218522343163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 15:00:01FORECAST2025115-16935.6923.01829.354117.9292504001.961.96FF3.6999.6923366.9273290384543.2714648647790.57950541779207163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 11:00:01FORECAST2025115-16935.22223.3629.291117.9485368001.961.96FF3.22299.22223366.9386435248743.2798760991350.55871289230968163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 07:00:03FORECAST2025115-16935.34823.16229.255117.81146416667001.961.96FF3.348101.34823366.8582169822743.2201036842540.56432930185805163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-22 03:00:03FORECAST2025115-16935.3323.14429.237117.80959456667001.961.96FF3.33101.3323366.8571198121443.2192885489640.56352772424413163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2025115-16936.15823.66629.912118.8483656001.961.96FF4.15899.15823367.4659179631243.672723763620.60007843004507163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 19:00:01FORECAST2025115-16935.76223.82829.795118.8601736001.961.96FF3.76297.76223367.472829112243.6778842615590.58268617385903163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 15:00:01FORECAST2025115-16936.1423.91830.029118.8551552001.961.96FF4.1498.1423367.4698918991743.6756910330030.59929188569851163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2025115-16935.9623.41429.687118.8708992001.961.96FF3.9696.9623367.4791065596443.6825718339570.59140480053125163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2025115-16936.19423.6329.912118.65379886667001.961.96FF4.19498.19423367.3520094099243.587711437790.60165029852168163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-21 03:00:03FORECAST2025115-16936.24823.3629.804118.64769806667001.961.96FF4.24899.24823367.348436803243.5850464150880.60400500511411163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 23:00:02FORECAST2025115-16936.522.71229.606118.8465944001.961.96FF4.589.523367.4648812728743.6719497008810.61494223990106163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2025115-16936.51822.78429.651118.8472832001.961.96FF4.51888.51823367.4652844307443.6722507249090.615720097317163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 15:00:01FORECAST2025115-16935.65423.41429.534118.928095038480.0074803190.0074803191.961.967480319FF3.65486.65423367.5125790833343.7075709330580.57791307743304163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025115-16932.46822.94627.707119.370113595280.0846457150.0846457151.962.044645715FF0.46883.46823367.7710961429843.9008775236480.43497714820638162111122DRYL
2025-01-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025115-16933.06223.05428.058120.06707081530.1283465260.1283465261.962.088346526FF1.06284.06223368.1781263624644.2060691706070.46154315307156162112124DRYL
2025-01-20 03:00:03FORECAST2025115-16930.95622.11826.537121.058659615910.3444883750.3444883751.962.304488375FF-1.04481.95623368.7559840289344.6411051518880.36892767121319162112124DRYL
2025-01-19 23:00:02FORECAST2025115-16931.15420.76825.961121.421880607390.2972442550.2972442551.962.257244255FF-0.84673.15423368.9672905285744.8007022985940.37740450738378162112124DRYL
2025-01-19 19:00:02FORECAST2025115-16930.66821.21825.943121.217096243050.2692914840.2692914841.962.229291484FF-1.33273.66823368.8481796813344.7107052955050.35671165765643162112124DRYL
2025-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2025115-16930.9220.26425.592121.122423601650.2421261150.2421261151.962.202126115FF-1.0870.9223368.7930933085744.6691132690840.36739311469396162112124DRYL
2025-01-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025115-16932.55821.79427.176120.510249238240.1165354960.1165354961.962.076535496FF0.55875.55823368.4365726274444.4003831958150.43898649901889162112124DRYL
2025-01-19 07:00:03FORECAST2025115-16932.61221.39827.005120.879402950.1177165990.1177165991.962.077716599FF0.61275.61223368.6516282690344.5623887217070.44139514475843162112124DRYL
2025-01-19 03:00:03FORECAST2025115-16930.7421.0225.88120.905464318040.1177165990.1177165991.962.077716599FF-1.2672.7423368.6668030632944.5738310030150.35975248806023162112124DRYL
2025-01-18 19:00:02FORECAST2025115-16936.526.25831.379120.8650936001.961.96FF4.578.523368.6432959138344.5561064656380.61494223990106163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2025115-16935.29425.9730.632120.8839864001.961.96FF3.29480.29423368.6542971545644.5644010435330.56192378944418163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 11:00:02FORECAST2025115-16934.93425.80830.371120.969395022960.0192913490.0192913491.961.979291349FF2.93480.93423368.7040238424544.6019027067510.54583275995423163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 07:00:03FORECAST2025115-16934.62826.02430.326121.13634927970.0070866180.0070866181.961.967086618FF2.62882.62823368.8011969565744.6752306093040.5320949168862163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-18 03:00:04FORECAST2025115-16934.37624.92629.651121.542378735450.0771653960.0771653961.962.037165396FF2.37682.37623369.037348152844.8536771367130.52075189222226163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2025115-16934.01623.86428.94121.693311902270.15748040.15748041.962.1174804FF2.01684.01623369.1250704672844.9200523313210.50452065325311163112125DRYL
2025-01-17 19:00:02FORECAST2025115-16934.10623.79228.949121.864326410740.1976379020.1976379021.962.157637902FF2.10683.10623369.22442342144.9952856545940.50858021577292163112125DRYL
2025-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2025115-16932.7225.5229.12121.225001694380.0759842930.0759842931.962.035984293FF0.7279.7223368.8527789605144.7141787544630.44621885594477162111122DRYL
2025-01-17 11:00:03FORECAST2025115-16932.64825.35829.003121.933720423050.2181103540.2181103541.962.178110354FF0.64877.64823369.2647264070545.0258219118110.44300211914226162112124DRYL
2025-01-17 07:00:04FORECAST2025115-16932.95425.08829.021122.344975013240.2153544470.2153544471.962.175354447FF0.95480.95423369.5034310680845.206888041330.45669663256644162112124DRYL
2025-01-17 03:00:03FORECAST2025115-16933.92627.60830.767123.587250243070.5102364960.5102364961.962.470236496FF1.92683.92623370.2229730136945.7548392115770.50046062253454163113127.5DRYL
2025-01-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025115-16937.23829.60633.422122.786324195230.0051181130.0051181131.891.895118113FF5.23869.23823369.7593263112845.4013885146670.64642188336889163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025115-16936.48227.69832.09122.893088195230.0051181130.0051181131.891.895118113FF4.48270.48223369.8211852390845.4484675340510.61416391981814163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2025115-16935.9627.15831.559122.926115386120.0055118140.0055118141.891.895511814FF3.9667.9623369.8403177550545.4630335747980.59140480053125163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2025115-16939.14626.76232.954122.764939355430.0192913490.0192913491.891.909291349FF7.14675.14623369.7469339452645.3919599226470.72288954811553164111123DRYL
2025-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025115-16938.58825.30431.946122.679988618050.0192913490.0192913491.891.909291349FF6.58876.58823369.6976989347645.3545094974340.70136924540877164111123DRYL
2025-01-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025115-16936.03225.64630.839122.839528285130.0192913490.0192913491.91.919291349FF4.03271.03223369.7901547911345.4248481790260.59456427048181163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2025115-16934.01627.53630.776124.158107956070.070866180.070866181.91.97086618FF2.01665.01623370.5528606057146.0071420705150.50452065325311163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025115-16933.3527.82430.587124.353231759570.0740157880.0740157881.921.994015788FF1.3558.3523370.6655092181946.0934539730880.47449321016644162111122DRYL
2025-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2025115-16934.39427.10430.749124.164539969690.0547244390.0547244391.911.964724439FF2.39463.39423370.5565748171146.0099866449130.52156277535808163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025115-16936.33828.43632.387123.103516051730.0066929170.0066929171.891.896692917FF4.33863.33823369.9430577722545.5412911506930.60792105812247163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 07:00:04FORECAST2025115-16935.20427.17631.19123.59571113454001.91.9FF3.20462.20423370.2278658916845.7585763667060.55790955623321163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2025115-16932.68426.4229.552124.562949694570.1543307920.1543307921.92.054330792FF0.68461.68423370.7865210611746.1862627703670.4446100315738162112124DRYL
2025-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2025115-16936.24829.24632.747125.649300334910.1444882670.1444882671.92.044488267FF4.24866.24823371.412338423746.667700458690.60400500511411163112125DRYL
2025-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2025115-16935.94228.65232.297125.264384363570.0562992430.0562992431.891.946299243FF3.94256.94223371.1907961975646.496986567110.59061399550078163111122.5DRYL
2025-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2025115-16942.4430.5636.5124.47071781004001.891.89FF10.4466.4423370.7333091838846.1454411102080.8324913003346164111123DRYL
2025-01-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025115-16943.8828.29236.086124.557983030940.0003937010.0003937011.91.900393701FF11.8856.8823370.783655932646.1840643238020.87013645191143165111123.5DRYL
2025-01-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025115-16944.2427.89636.068124.481029816480.0007874020.0007874021.91.900787402FF12.2460.2423370.7392591686946.1500047747170.87855510764776165111123.5DRYL
2025-01-14 03:00:09FORECAST2025115-16940.26227.21233.737124.4983267891001.91.9FF8.26255.26223370.7492390999646.1576599262750.76351811009554164111123DRYL
2025-01-13 23:00:06FORECAST2025115-16932.28827.35629.822126.09615284377001.91.9FF0.28847.28823371.6692573066646.8660634766730.42697887122162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 19:00:04FORECAST2025115-16931.65825.48428.571126.1818984995600.011.911.92FF-0.34241.65823371.7185236321246.9041490193530.39924114555019162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2025115-16930.90225.4328.166126.3270516440400.031.911.94FF-1.09847.90223371.8018988808146.9686376812680.36662662775906162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2025115-16931.47829.1230.299125.94675352331001.911.91FF-0.52250.47823371.5833922690746.7997219194680.39140217141399162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 07:00:04FORECAST2025115-16930.8329.53430.182126.21648326053001.921.92FF-1.1749.8323371.7383917374946.9195124980330.36356602090547162111122DRYL
2025-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025115-16930.36229.8430.101127.1796302211700.131.922.05FF-1.63837.36223372.2909957571647.3478311750680.34389144634706162112124DRYL