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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 20, 2025

[ Sunday, January 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 21, 2025 ]

DAY 112 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/21/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.793
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 98

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 119 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 364.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 43.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -172

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-21 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025112-17242.3199415.3399228.82993118.78585166667004.654.65TF10.3199498.3199420364.78692674716 43.3315257705270.7925358695632816 4111123WETL
2025-01-21 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025112-17242.3199415.3399228.82993118.78585166667004.654.65TF10.3199498.3199420364.78692674716 43.3315257705270.7925358695632816 4111123WETL
2025-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2025112-17230.12815.00822.568119004.654.65TF-1.87286.12820364.9136910394943.4247292336990.3565650662751162111122WETL
2025-01-20 07:00:03FORECAST2025112-17229.98414.97222.478119.47482666667004.654.65TF-2.01685.98420365.1945170646243.6315516259130.35136924373917162111122WETL
2025-01-20 03:00:03FORECAST2025112-17230.0214.82822.424119.47482666667004.654.65TF-1.9886.0220365.1945170646243.6315516259130.3526656443376162111122WETL
2025-01-19 23:00:01FORECAST2025112-17231.44214.41422.928120004.654.65TF-0.55877.44220365.5047253329343.8605670399520.40509844878878162111122WETL
2025-01-19 19:00:02FORECAST2025112-17231.42414.05422.739120004.654.65TF-0.57677.42420365.5047253329343.8605670399520.40442170894062162111122WETL
2025-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2025112-17230.97414.64822.811120004.654.65TF-1.02676.97420365.5047253329343.8605670399520.38760109550344162111122WETL
2025-01-19 11:00:02FORECAST2025112-17230.93815.22423.081120004.654.65TF-1.06276.93820365.5047253329343.8605670399520.38626405875881162111122WETL
2025-01-19 07:00:03FORECAST2025112-17230.18214.1822.181120.32292208333004.654.65TF-1.81877.18220365.6952629189644.0015226264430.35852044168298162111122WETL
2025-01-19 03:00:03FORECAST2025112-17229.13812.61420.876120.32292208333004.654.65TF-2.86277.13820365.6952629189644.0015226264430.32142900058671162111122WETL
2025-01-18 19:00:02FORECAST2025112-17229.2113.8221.515121004.654.65TF-2.7972.2120366.0942603042244.2974054968110.32393582162024162111122WETL
2025-01-18 15:00:01FORECAST2025112-17229.55214.48622.019121004.654.65TF-2.44872.55220366.0942603042244.2974054968110.33595086216313162111122WETL
2025-01-18 11:00:01FORECAST2025112-17231.06415.2623.162121004.654.65TF-0.93675.06420366.0942603042244.2974054968110.39094949017651162111122WETL
2025-01-18 07:00:03FORECAST2025112-17231.2816.23223.756121.27272333333004.654.65TF-0.7276.2820366.2547805386344.4167146697720.39901824086497162111122WETL
2025-01-18 03:00:03FORECAST2025112-17231.35216.93424.143121.27272333333004.654.65TF-0.64876.35220366.2547805386344.4167146697720.40171762673337162111122WETL
2025-01-17 23:00:02FORECAST2025112-17231.65817.52824.593121004.654.65TF-0.34277.65820366.0942603042244.2974054968110.41324090812075162111122WETL
2025-01-17 19:00:02FORECAST2025112-17231.49617.65424.575121004.654.65TF-0.50477.49620366.0942603042244.2974054968110.40713036357217162111122WETL
2025-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2025112-17230.43416.48423.459121004.654.65TF-1.56674.43420366.0942603042244.2974054968110.36769388167915162111122WETL
2025-01-17 11:00:02FORECAST2025112-17230.05616.01623.036121004.654.65TF-1.94472.05620366.0942603042244.2974054968110.35396375735109162111122WETL
2025-01-17 07:00:03FORECAST2025112-17231.89216.12424.008121.44332666667004.654.65TF-0.10874.89220366.3551381872944.4913867228910.42210409746954162111122WETL
2025-01-17 03:00:03FORECAST2025112-17230.54214.55822.55121.44332666667004.654.65TF-1.45876.54220366.3551381872944.4913867228910.37164892988521162111122WETL
2025-01-16 23:00:02FORECAST2025112-17226.6914.32420.507123004.584.58TF-5.3164.6920367.2688474844545.1740682405870.24157851864882161111121.5WETL
2025-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2025112-17227.55414.28820.921123004.584.58TF-4.44666.55420367.2688474844545.1740682405870.26848674469625162111122WETL
2025-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2025112-17227.42816.722.064123004.584.58TF-4.57265.42820367.2688474844545.1740682405870.26447094325041162111122WETL
2025-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2025112-17227.516.14221.821123.00528453443004.584.58TF-4.567.520367.2719431604745.1763898699690.26676194441663162111122WETL
2025-01-16 07:00:04FORECAST2025112-17227.75215.38621.569122.87040986942004.584.58TF-4.24868.75220367.1929206853745.1171446657590.27485854019674162111122WETL
2025-01-16 03:00:04FORECAST2025112-17226.56414.61220.588122.89566057229004.594.59TF-5.43664.56420367.2077170212845.1282349505720.23778030769816161111121.5WETL
2025-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2025112-17230.5615.83623.198124.02307804424004.594.59TF-1.4456.5620367.8673917714645.6240462396030.37230943625783162111122WETL
2025-01-15 19:00:02FORECAST2025112-17229.19214.61221.902124.11383957771004.614.61TF-2.80853.19220367.9204160644345.6640154967850.32330836214258162111122WETL
2025-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2025112-17229.53417.43823.486124.04301794139004.64.6TF-2.46657.53420367.8790420158645.6328266090350.33531415998152162111122WETL
2025-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2025112-17227.9514.1821.065123.33411008161004.584.58TF-4.0555.9520367.4644871896145.3209055141270.28130389241249162111122WETL
2025-01-15 07:00:03FORECAST2025112-17227.96814.25221.11123.76919033454004.594.59TF-4.03256.96820367.7190017018745.5122831112660.28189342795513162111122WETL
2025-01-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025112-17227.44612.90220.174123.66005455966004.594.59TF-4.55455.44620367.6551855639145.4642603059770.26504275472157162111122WETL
2025-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2025112-17227.55418.3222.937125.21295168854004.594.59TF-4.44651.55420368.5615649846546.1486814306770.26848674469625162111122WETL
2025-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025112-17227.4117.40222.406125.24263207504004.584.58TF-4.5947.4120368.5788537405746.1617857696710.26389975941578162111122WETL
2025-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2025112-17228.90419.97624.44125.27474421004004.584.58TF-3.09647.90420368.5975575164646.1759647343180.31333827013312162111122WETL
2025-01-14 11:00:02FORECAST2025112-17229.46218.42823.945125.06710095989004.594.59TF-2.53841.46220368.4765883336146.0842986744750.33277209111748162111122WETL
2025-01-14 07:00:04FORECAST2025112-17229.5718.48224.026124.95575348135004.594.59TF-2.4344.5720368.4116930323646.0351606941970.33658803515881162111122WETL
2025-01-14 03:00:09FORECAST2025112-17229.49820.33624.917125.0030203891004.594.59TF-2.50245.49820368.4392432732146.0560182390240.33404217441303162111122WETL
2025-01-13 23:00:05FORECAST2025112-17231.8223.01827.419126.22840244377004.594.59TF-0.1843.8220369.1523227956946.5975079649090.41937253811563162111122WETL
2025-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2025112-17230.07422.65826.366126.22082428673004.64.6TF-1.92641.07420369.1479196993346.5941547081790.35461345177451162111122WETL
2025-01-13 15:00:02FORECAST2025112-17231.4622.40626.933126.25608203408004.64.6TF-0.5444.4620369.1684046010146.6097563756960.40577547247401162111122WETL
2025-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2025112-17231.9119.70625.808126.15910072331004.64.6TF-0.0944.9120369.1120536283246.5668447518830.42278757851303162111122WETL
2025-01-13 07:00:04FORECAST2025112-17231.67620.01225.844126.45716966053004.614.61TF-0.32444.67620369.285202308346.6987614814260.41392118540601162111122WETL
2025-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2025112-17226.83416.57421.704126.53051314378004.614.61TF-5.16634.83420369.3277875517146.7312344771740.24595929769716161111121.5WETL
2025-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2025112-17233.31424.06228.688126.13634810101004.584.58TF1.31438.31420369.098831210946.5567786572940.47665400003964162111122WETL
2025-01-12 19:00:02FORECAST2025112-17233.09823.6328.364126.14896127044004.584.58TF1.09837.09820369.1061612995646.5623588464590.46831381199979162111122WETL
2025-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2025112-17232.66621.9227.293126.39634442138004.594.59TF0.66633.66620369.249879483446.6718349447360.45167871382584162111122WETL
2025-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2025112-17232.41420.98426.699126.32649353781004.614.61TF0.41438.41420369.2093084955546.6409173237630.44201205656082162111122WETL
2025-01-12 07:00:03FORECAST2025112-17233.2623.05428.157125.71615535647004.584.58TF1.2644.2620368.854503748746.3709700972080.47456785044537162111122WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025112-17227.57219.1323.351126.23379481576004.634.63TF-4.42831.57220369.1554558453546.5998940682990.26906291990907162111122WETL
2025-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025112-17228.65220.64224.647122.66441174576004.034.03TF-3.34831.65220367.0721750262845.0266924178350.30472455008408162111122WETL
2025-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2025112-17228.70620.7524.728122.59844343865004.044.04TF-3.29429.70620367.0334943907644.9977351021550.30656148367688162111122WETL
2025-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2025112-17237.6722.26229.966122.38758193985004.044.04TF5.6743.6720366.9098118944944.9052046677710.6420936750893163111122.5WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2025112-17224.51216.95220.732122.7512574954400.024.024.04TF-7.48826.51220367.1230873061445.0648206224360.18072233977779161111121.5WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:04FORECAST2025112-17228.63416.19622.415121.951977363100.013.994TF-3.36628.63420366.6540946801344.7141918545190.30411332718795162111122WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:04FORECAST2025112-17228.63412.03820.336121.93976485070.0062992160.0162992164.024.036299216TF-3.36629.63420366.6469213714244.7088393752660.30411332718795162111122WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025112-17227.71622.5525.133119.4883725915400.033.883.91TF-4.28429.71620365.202523542843.6374552044530.27369451648867162111122DRYL
2025-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025112-17221.4719.14820.309119.6682356620200.033.923.95TF-10.5322.4720365.3088076167243.715860479290.11351905248574161111121.5DRYL
2025-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2025112-17224.11619.14821.632120.0028612469800.053.964.01TF-7.88427.11620365.506414275143.8618155171340.17078757258499161111121.5WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2025112-17228.05823.97226.015123.5068357951200.044.024.06TF-3.94237.05820367.5655624474145.3968595651330.28484999090241162111122WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2025112-17230.90229.3930.146124.4434734255900.064.134.19TF-1.09842.90220368.1128904768445.8092467036740.38492837082328162111122WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:05FORECAST2025112-17230.93830.59630.767123.6104201985700.064.034.09TF-1.06247.93820367.6261564762645.4424236780150.38626405875881162111122WETL