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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 15, 2025

[ Tuesday, January 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 16, 2025 ]

DAY 107 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/16/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.994
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 82

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 123 in
SWE DAY: 15
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -177

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-16 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025107-17754.6699239.6800647.17499122.85900625006.576.57TF22.6699281.6699215362.76076780173 44.5684274386070.9935519830463116 5111123.5WETL
2025-01-16 03:00:03OBSERVATION2025107-17754.6699239.6800647.17499122.85900625006.576.57TF22.6699281.6699215362.76076780173 44.5684274386070.9935519830463116 5111123.5WETL
2025-01-15 11:00:01FORECAST2025107-17743.46633.56638.516123.3508552006.576.57TF11.46670.46615363.0543429628944.7830636885460.88413558517041165111123.5WETL
2025-01-15 07:00:03FORECAST2025107-17744.85233.65639.254123.78801455006.576.57TF12.85271.85215363.3149672754244.9740384553230.91231544600872165111123.5WETL
2025-01-15 03:00:03FORECAST2025107-17744.36633.72839.047123.68193935006.576.57TF12.36671.36615363.2517542782144.9276814414180.90308025016538165111123.5WETL
2025-01-14 23:00:02FORECAST2025107-17745.15833.04439.101125.2320864006.576.57TF13.15865.15815364.1738355838845.606249242460.9177845479103165111123.5WETL
2025-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2025107-17744.20433.49438.849125.250192006.576.57TF12.20464.20415364.1845839879345.6141890679280.89984897089035165111123.5WETL
2025-01-14 15:00:01FORECAST2025107-17743.9734.4339.2125.277744006.576.57TF11.9763.9715364.2009393065745.6262720390080.89504423420231165111123.5WETL
2025-01-14 11:00:01FORECAST2025107-17743.59234.08838.84125.0451264006.576.57TF11.59263.59215364.0628177189745.5242810592090.88693515976308165111123.5WETL
2025-01-14 07:00:03FORECAST2025107-17743.57433.94438.759124.92745045006.576.57TF11.57464.57415363.9929140605745.4727067354530.88653819361808165111123.5WETL
2025-01-14 03:00:06FORECAST2025107-17743.4333.90838.669124.94811445006.576.57TF11.4364.4315364.0051907166945.4817622300630.883326769557165111123.5WETL
2025-01-13 23:00:02FORECAST2025107-17743.05233.0838.066126.1393936006.576.57TF11.05264.05215364.7118514375646.0045317790670.87459270651144165111123.5WETL
2025-01-13 19:00:02FORECAST2025107-17743.03433.24238.138126.1063312006.576.57TF11.03464.03415364.6922678252645.9900039124520.87416574203255165111123.5WETL
2025-01-13 15:00:01FORECAST2025107-17742.85432.6337.742126.1521856006.576.57TF10.85463.85415364.7194279891746.0101529716160.869840470363165111123.5WETL
2025-01-13 11:00:01FORECAST2025107-17743.17833.8938.534126.0774016006.576.57TF11.17864.17815364.6751308153745.9772929213420.87755323285414165111123.5WETL
2025-01-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025107-17743.03433.02638.03126.30178203333006.576.57TF11.03465.03415364.808013931946.075902259640.87416574203255165111123.5WETL
2025-01-13 03:00:03FORECAST2025107-17742.6232.4537.535126.36406923333006.576.57TF10.6263.6215364.8448883786546.1032847345080.86406581101563165111123.5WETL
2025-01-12 23:00:01FORECAST2025107-17742.90833.51238.21126.0811408006.566.56TF10.90856.90815364.6773458739145.9789357916980.87114868646806165111123.5WETL
2025-01-12 19:00:01FORECAST2025107-17742.99833.67438.336126.0732688006.566.56TF10.99856.99815364.672682568345.9754771334510.87330878321913165111123.5WETL
2025-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2025107-17741.97231.2836.626126.289552006.566.56TF9.97254.97215364.8007729836246.0705261893560.84717209425111164111123WETL
2025-01-12 11:00:01FORECAST2025107-17742.78233.76438.273126.078484006.566.56TF10.78255.78215364.6757720186945.9777684876460.86808196972328165111123.5WETL
2025-01-12 07:00:03FORECAST2025107-17743.5234.08838.804125.72395313333006.566.56TF11.5258.5215364.4656570510545.8220631857960.88534135354483165111123.5WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025107-17742.72832.86437.796125.85029873333006.566.56TF10.72857.72815364.5405582732245.8775381591010.86675241828235165111123.5WETL
2025-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2025107-17741.5432.61237.076122.17116864153005.955.95TF9.5454.5415362.3495952028344.2686735027160.83516909859921164111123WETL
2025-01-11 19:00:02FORECAST2025107-17742.49432.10837.301122.067168005.955.95TF10.49457.49415362.2873636048344.2233924774280.86088498750372165111123.5WETL
2025-01-11 15:00:02FORECAST2025107-17742.94432.7237.832121.9399988722005.955.95TF10.94458.94415362.2112461723644.1680389497570.87201576208973165111123.5WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025107-17743.89832.2738.084122.11864328458005.955.95TF11.89858.89815362.3181672889144.2458030266770.89353292168769165111123.5WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025107-17743.62833.83638.732121.59385864819005.945.94TF11.62861.62815362.0039384041744.0174557164070.88772612584833165111123.5WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2025107-17743.30432.48637.895121.37452857941005.955.95TF11.30463.30415361.8724844786743.9221022094570.88046451364271165111123.5WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2025107-17741.75632.84637.301118.99300903212005.855.85TF9.75652.75615360.4404129820242.8898893175120.84124475898341164111123WETL
2025-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2025107-17741.70232.59437.148119.14107197454005.895.89TF9.70253.70215360.5296999629542.9538949322450.83973974849213164111123WETL
2025-01-10 15:00:02FORECAST2025107-17741.34232.6336.986119.06312870172005.895.89TF9.34252.34215360.4827017089842.9201983083190.82946952796797164111123WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2025107-17740.94631.13636.041122.14734226679005.885.88TF8.94651.94615362.3353394984444.2582987290690.81769773146083164111123WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025107-17740.80230.34435.573123.04030821037005.995.99TF8.80249.80215362.869026130544.6475168150930.81329438853205164111123WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025107-17740.78432.03636.41122.55728851821005.925.92TF8.78449.78415362.5804967174944.4368825472820.81273938859299164111123WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025107-1774133.76437.382124.06945747409005.85.8TF93715363.4826039852745.0970894777220.81933215450916164111123WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2025107-17740.80233.51237.157124.1103417597005.825.82TF8.80238.80215363.5069460502745.1149713063250.81329438853205164111123WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025107-17740.94633.56637.256123.9528430969005.775.77TF8.94639.94615363.4131591468445.0460942950770.81769773146083164111123WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2025107-17742.3534.57438.462123.23588832179005.725.72TF10.3540.3515362.9857542898844.7328718780690.85718835936274165111123.5WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2025107-17742.96233.94438.453123.41842738843005.695.69TF10.96239.96215363.0946468529144.8125703077420.87244778091045165111123.5WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2025107-17743.12434.86238.993123.60901407311005.725.72TF11.12445.12415363.2082863102844.8958181739960.87629047819374165111123.5WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025107-17743.62833.49438.561126.98795208487005.745.74TF11.62840.62815365.2139095969146.377766452620.88772612584833165111123.5WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:03FORECAST2025107-17744.00633.49438.75126.8757808891005.765.76TF12.00642.00615365.1476044321146.3283874521070.89579405870498165111123.5WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025107-17742.78231.29837.04127.69092070757005.825.82TF10.78234.78215365.6290092900646.6875048336460.86808196972328165111123.5WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025107-17740.60432.19836.401127.30233957418005.765.76TF8.60435.60415365.3996455610846.5162297595010.80713356060016164111123WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025107-17740.22631.87436.05127.32048931622005.775.77TF8.22635.22615365.4103636605246.5242263024760.79503299064358164111123WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025107-17741.16232.32436.743127.729699064470.0007874020.0007874025.85.800787402TF9.16234.16215365.6518861653246.7046053822540.82418019813227164111123WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025107-17740.71232.84636.779130.93461360131005.935.93TF8.71224.71215367.5348235620548.1230301081220.81050922754188164111123WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025107-17740.89232.75636.824130.656464071870.0062992160.0062992165.845.846299216TF8.89224.89215367.3720131038747.9995282311170.81605412159464164111123WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025107-17743.19628.68835.942130.562171326110.0125984320.0125984325.715.722598432TF11.19623.19615367.3167942147547.9576782172250.87797214017705165111123.5WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:03FORECAST2025107-17740.60426.27633.44129.67270874599005.535.53TF8.60411.60415366.7952636683547.5633353950730.80713356060016164111123WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2025107-17737.7624.45831.109129.85160433405005.545.54TF5.7611.7615366.9002526023247.6425864309770.70578739294694164111123WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025107-17737.7624.45831.109129.9407859098005.575.57TF5.7610.7615366.9525730167947.6821057294240.70578739294694164111123WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2025107-17737.72426.04231.883133.53120555434005.795.79TF5.7247.72415369.0491617654349.2795794793550.70436281994337164111123WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:03FORECAST2025107-17737.425.4331.415133.80976268213005.95.9TF5.46.415369.2110244986649.404039567790.69140161129282163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025107-17735.76227.0531.406132.91230318835005.925.92TF3.7629.76215368.689122580549.0033204426650.62246237849397163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2025107-17733.92624.76429.345133.15627969679005.485.48TF1.9265.92615368.8311206345449.1121798600940.5403743329912163111122.5WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025107-17732.91824.3528.634132.88084965605005.685.68TF0.91810.91815368.6708097399848.9892904416340.49432162954927162111122WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:04FORECAST2025107-17732.88223.16228.022133.2628897831600.015.725.73TF0.88215.88215368.8931417114949.1597660856620.4926746329735162111122WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:03FORECAST2025107-17733.74628.99431.37127.8021530562800.015.465.47TF1.74616.74615365.6946235821146.73656025490.53217246593593163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:03FORECAST2025107-17729.01227.78828.4127.4121763256900.015.485.49TF-2.98810.01215365.4645007063346.5646274047740.3219581712289162111122WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025107-17732.9928.4930.74127.75253241199005.75.7TF0.9930.9915365.6653553995446.7146751676220.49761588502375162111122WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:03FORECAST2025107-17725.59224.825.196130.809165669810.1125984860.1125984865.45.512598486TF-6.40818.59215367.4614088257448.0673203043480.19639888785467161112123WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:05FORECAST2025107-17731.49627.3229.408136.734223781670.5279530410.9179530415.496.407953041TT-0.50428.49615370.9034626029250.7151970569460.42962538782872162113126WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025107-17731.58630.63231.109133.652692805510.2106300350.6006300355.245.840630035TF-0.41428.58615369.1197691174849.3338511102990.43368283284872162113126WETL