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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 14, 2025

[ Monday, January 13, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 15, 2025 ]

DAY 106 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/15/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.862
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 58

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.34 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 14
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -178

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-15 07:00:02OBSERVATION2025106-17844.5134.0599239.28496124.4633337500.017.337.34TT12.5157.5114362.82542028434 45.1584613778340.8621556227769316 5111123.5WETL
2025-01-15 03:00:02OBSERVATION2025106-17844.5134.0599239.28496124.4633337500.017.337.34TT12.5157.5114362.82542028434 45.1584613778340.8621556227769316 5111123.5WETL
2025-01-14 11:00:01FORECAST2025106-17838.4829.64234.061125.740322400.017.337.34TT6.4851.4814363.5866614828645.7175040351950.69016405915051163111122.5WETL
2025-01-14 07:00:03FORECAST2025106-17838.91229.71434.313125.6063120500.017.337.34TT6.91251.91214363.5068908594645.6587599656180.70500066149448164111123WETL
2025-01-14 03:00:06FORECAST2025106-17838.6630.3834.52125.5993256500.017.337.34TT6.6651.6614363.5027314099545.6556979370220.69638555443576163111122.5WETL
2025-01-13 23:00:02FORECAST2025106-17838.5729.28233.926126.733532800.017.337.34TT6.5751.5714364.1770314999446.1534417666050.6932817611745163111122.5WETL
2025-01-13 19:00:01FORECAST2025106-17838.71430.09234.403126.705488800.017.337.34TT6.71451.71414364.1603824085846.1411192546740.69824107923368163111122.5WETL
2025-01-13 15:00:01FORECAST2025106-17838.69630.4734.583126.724578400.017.337.34TT6.69651.69614364.1717156031646.1495071250150.69762313689374163111122.5WETL
2025-01-13 11:00:01FORECAST2025106-17839.21830.34434.781126.680396800.017.337.34TT7.21852.21814364.1454848478646.1300945134550.71530789744364164111123WETL
2025-01-13 07:00:03FORECAST2025106-17839.0231.17235.096126.8678772333300.017.337.34TT7.0253.0214364.2567723185946.2124834719250.70865808800506164111123WETL
2025-01-13 03:00:03FORECAST2025106-17839.05631.96435.51126.8951340333300.017.337.34TT7.05652.05614364.2729474101546.2244644863280.70987251553283164111123WETL
2025-01-12 23:00:01FORECAST2025106-17838.89430.9234.907126.6711472007.337.33TT6.89444.89414364.139992958546.1260306494540.70438904184462164111123WETL
2025-01-12 19:00:01FORECAST2025106-17838.94831.135.024126.67282007.337.33TT6.94844.94814364.1409861820946.1267655972670.70622215027959164111123WETL
2025-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2025106-17838.2130.59634.403126.726448007.337.33TT6.2144.2114364.1728255256646.1503286369910.68072934406944163111122.5WETL
2025-01-12 11:00:01FORECAST2025106-17839.0231.11835.069126.6844312007.337.33TT7.0244.0214364.1478802059946.1318670765820.70865808800506164111123WETL
2025-01-12 07:00:03FORECAST2025106-17839.4730.84835.159126.37231073333007.337.33TT7.4746.4714363.9624913242345.9947810489040.72366513226181164111123WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2025106-17838.60630.99234.799126.41786993333007.337.33TT6.60645.60614363.9895610925346.0147849912870.69452495767094163111122.5WETL
2025-01-11 23:00:01FORECAST2025106-17838.4830.50634.493122.66316864153006.726.72TT6.4844.4814361.7480996173744.373168149120.69016405915051163111122.5WETL
2025-01-11 19:00:02FORECAST2025106-17839.05630.90234.979122.6037432006.726.72TT7.05646.05614361.712452012544.3473005787820.70987251553283164111123WETL
2025-01-11 15:00:02FORECAST2025106-17839.57831.8235.699122.5562780722006.726.72TT7.57846.57814361.6839751886744.3266418374830.72720963612217164111123WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.24431.83836.041122.76158888458006.726.72TT8.24446.24414361.8071272426644.4160178100740.74855716184753164111123WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025106-17841.03631.56836.302122.33422024819006.716.71TF9.03649.03614361.5507054225144.2300236280480.77274760099027164111123WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2025106-17841.93631.98236.959122.16507417941006.726.72TT9.93650.93614361.4491406191244.1564610758180.79857377802947164111123WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:01FORECAST2025106-17840.02831.92835.978119.62316263212006.626.62TF8.02842.02814359.9175672606843.0544776825830.74173155180168164111123WETL
2025-01-10 19:00:01FORECAST2025106-17840.11832.21636.167119.76522317454006.666.66TF8.11843.11814360.0034238700143.1158904033890.74458716254054164111123WETL
2025-01-10 15:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.94632.55836.752119.71374950172006.666.66TF8.94641.94614359.9723184939143.0936359637320.77006636755051164111123WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2025106-17841.43232.75637.094122.68411426679006.656.65TF9.43242.43214361.7606630101644.3822865179690.78433381070076164111123WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025106-17841.23431.04636.14123.47523621037006.766.76TT9.23440.23414362.2346967057544.7270147393340.77858395721479164111123WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025106-17841.16231.38836.275123.09514291821006.696.69TF9.16240.16214362.0070668478144.5613116310340.77647160663326164111123WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.08230.59635.339124.65956227409006.576.57TF8.08227.08214362.9425570683145.2442602947750.74344689883691164111123WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.11830.12835.123124.671221759700.016.586.59TF8.11829.11814362.9495152519145.2493595035470.74458716254054164111123WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.15430.5635.357124.509885496900.026.526.54TF8.15430.15414362.8532141972545.1788121518810.74572477595267164111123WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.31629.85835.087124.0705171217900.016.486.49TF8.31629.31614362.5907565778544.9868226721950.75081102514616164111123WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:03FORECAST2025106-17840.22629.69634.961124.25964898843006.466.46TF8.22628.22614362.7037708001145.06944324640.74799201979256164111123WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:03FORECAST2025106-17839.70430.93835.321124.43439327311006.496.49TF7.70432.70414362.8081395962845.1458107252070.73131621565527164111123WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.71230.86635.789127.78479528487006.516.51TF8.71227.71214364.8002876573746.6159300781590.76301310550525164111123WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.85631.42436.14127.690040889100.026.516.53TF8.85628.85614364.7441793607946.5741991766390.76736754886829164111123WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025106-17839.95628.8534.403128.2607551075700.046.556.59TF7.95622.95614365.0819204730846.8256827960010.73943522303427164111123WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025106-17839.7430.1134.925127.9512875741800.056.486.53TF7.7425.7414364.8988424510246.6892767259360.7324838000712164111123WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:04FORECAST2025106-17839.36230.27234.817127.9225048526100.076.476.54TF7.36226.36214364.8818075534346.6765947973840.72009821046295164111123WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025106-17840.58631.58636.086128.433040024700.086.496.57TF8.58623.58614365.1837802349346.9016630632830.75916657007564164111123WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.02828.4934.259131.5803144013100.126.586.7TT8.02815.02814367.0367154743848.2948064189420.74173155180168164112126WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025106-17840.04628.29234.169131.2676924857200.126.496.61TF8.04615.04614366.853323449448.1559892499220.74230399297594164112126WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025106-17836.4127.69832.054130.9065431174600.126.366.48TF4.4111.4114366.6412826120447.9957428708940.61507449370163163112125WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025106-17830.30824.56627.437129.9530503459900.026.286.3TF-1.6922.30814366.0805249155247.5732808850310.37903253591903162111122WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025106-17829.46222.9126.186129.9794259340500.026.296.31TF-2.5385.46214366.0960549077547.5849550536280.3477908045229162111122WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025106-17829.46222.9126.186130.068607509800.026.326.34TF-2.5384.46214366.1485574694247.6244330117690.3477908045229162111122WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2025106-17830.23624.45827.347133.6680799543400.036.536.56TF-1.7641.23614368.2577257192149.2243031252380.37633930631372162111122WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025106-17830.6524.56627.608133.9315818821300.036.646.67TF-1.35-0.3514368.4113726981349.3419179288250.39190361266739162111122WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025106-17831.53225.26828.4133.0262503883500.036.666.69TF-0.4684.53214367.883046741448.938102289450.42561488323484162111122WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2025106-17830.1123.84626.978133.17773089679006.256.25TF-1.893.1114367.9715311536449.0056135536590.37164067754162111122WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025106-17829.8424.40427.122132.8876392560500.016.446.45TF-2.168.8414367.8020498916148.8763461236340.36163711365532162111122WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025106-17830.61423.84627.23133.269285783160.0122047310.0222047316.486.502204731TF-1.38613.61414368.0249946670349.0464281896270.39054290623633162111122WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025106-17833.8926.74430.317127.823309056280.0106299270.0106299276.236.240629927TF1.8913.8914364.8230895166146.6328945221490.51776200938048163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:03FORECAST2025106-17833.67426.3330.002127.412176325690.0122047310.0122047316.256.262204731TF1.67411.67414364.5795654969846.4518758838440.50928557913104163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025106-17837.83228.47233.152127.76188041199006.476.47TF5.83228.83214364.7867199788346.6058372938170.66732298555802163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025106-17835.49226.13230.812129.5786476437800.016.166.17TF3.49224.49214365.8599637089247.4076393244050.58012566191741163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:05FORECAST2025106-17838.24625.91632.081132.086666723190.3921261960.4021261966.256.652126196TT6.24628.24614367.3334459425748.5198504504970.68199426170123163112125WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025106-17838.24625.91632.081131.775449679150.3881891860.39818918666.398189186TF6.24628.24614367.151113032648.3815030200710.68199426170123163112125WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:03FORECAST2025106-17834.0731.29832.684127.3220131354700.016.116.12TF2.0729.0714364.5261256145846.412200153720.52481973554766163111122.5WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025106-17834.3431.65832.999126.680584545400.015.996TF2.3428.3414364.1455963191246.130177001340.53539104990849163111122.5WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2025106-17834.32229.94832.135124.6619936320400.035.525.55TF2.32229.32214362.9440080785745.2453236238770.53468698916487163111122.5WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025106-17836.1432.9934.565127.9697876712300.035.415.44TF4.1436.1414364.9097909756146.6974284703020.60487838678354163111122.5WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025106-17832.16230.84831.505129.3423034873800.035.65.63TF0.16226.16214365.7206249707647.3031480665620.45004741647891162111122WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2025106-17832.21631.87432.045128.737194762005.545.54TF0.21629.21614365.363496427247.0358715984720.45215183148537162111122WETL