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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 13, 2025

[ Sunday, January 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 14, 2025 ]

DAY 105 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/14/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.43°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.537
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 44

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.66 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 126 in
SWE DAY: 13
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.77 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 45.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -179

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-01-14 07:00:03OBSERVATION2025105-17933.8500421.0099227.42998125.8708112500.668.128.78TT1.8500443.8500413362.77252087197 45.6624715013620.5370328166924716 3113127.5WETL
2025-01-14 03:00:05OBSERVATION2025105-17933.8500421.0099227.42998125.8708112500.668.128.78TT1.8500443.8500413362.77252087197 45.6624715013620.5370328166924716 3113127.5WETL
2025-01-13 11:00:01FORECAST2025105-17933.83620.42627.131126.974809600.668.128.78TT1.83643.83613363.4309313841546.1465733152530.53644407091973163113127.5WETL
2025-01-13 07:00:02FORECAST2025105-17934.73621.7428.238127.1614044333300.668.128.78TT2.73644.73613363.5420318746146.2285153437220.57396690623838163113127.5WETL
2025-01-13 03:00:03FORECAST2025105-17933.821.81227.806127.1840364333300.668.128.78TT1.843.813363.5555036208146.2384564180470.53493410468817163113127.5WETL
2025-01-12 23:00:01FORECAST2025105-17935.22222.35228.787126.947454400.658.128.77TT3.22237.22213363.4146393895646.1345633621990.5939759949679163113127.5WETL
2025-01-12 19:00:01FORECAST2025105-17935.4222.51428.967126.9360400.658.128.77TT3.4237.4213363.4078409563746.1295522359510.6020611065634163113127.5WETL
2025-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2025105-17935.1522.85629.003126.942829600.658.128.77TT3.1537.1513363.4118848757346.1325329763940.59102579374068163113127.5WETL
2025-01-12 11:00:01FORECAST2025105-17934.19622.20828.202126.963001600.658.128.77TT2.19636.19613363.4238990073646.1413890711490.55151131221468163113127.5WETL
2025-01-12 07:00:02FORECAST2025105-17934.75421.75828.256126.6802043333300.658.128.77TT2.75437.75413363.2554131333146.0172699609170.57471172702415163113127.5WETL
2025-01-12 03:00:03FORECAST2025105-17934.7922.35228.571126.6842387333300.658.128.77TT2.7937.7913363.2578176122946.0190400881460.57620056645015163113127.5WETL
2025-01-11 23:00:01FORECAST2025105-17935.04221.34428.193122.9440022415300.048.128.16TT3.04237.04213361.0180475023244.3850036413590.58659085854126163111122.5WETL
2025-01-11 19:00:02FORECAST2025105-17935.81621.86628.841122.917442400.048.128.16TT3.81637.81613361.0020664335844.3734507071310.61809732323318163111122.5WETL
2025-01-11 15:00:02FORECAST2025105-17936.35622.92829.642122.918094872200.048.128.16TT4.35638.35613361.0024590393244.3737345092940.63963758502073163111122.5WETL
2025-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2025105-17934.30421.52427.914123.1322616845800.048.128.16TT2.30437.30413361.1312923961944.4669127978180.55601803573376163111122.5WETL
2025-01-11 07:00:03FORECAST2025105-17934.35821.95628.157122.7647202481900.038.128.15TT2.35839.35813360.9101525194644.3070339087840.55826872137978163111122.5WETL
2025-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2025105-17935.20422.15428.679122.7952277794100.048.128.16TT3.20440.20413360.9285159448944.3202993275360.59323893767584163111122.5WETL
2025-01-10 23:00:01FORECAST2025105-17935.09623.0929.093120.0817066321200.038.038.06TT3.09633.09613359.2895854783243.1441065993850.5888097446146163111122.5WETL
2025-01-10 19:00:01FORECAST2025105-17934.64622.65828.652120.2458087745400.078.038.1TT2.64633.64613359.3890222130843.2150236407020.57023889540678163111122.5WETL
2025-01-10 15:00:02FORECAST2025105-17933.65622.80228.229120.2625263017200.078.038.1TT1.65631.65613359.3991497749943.2222497026290.52888942458733163111122.5WETL
2025-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2025105-17933.81822.6428.229123.2363350667900.068.038.09TT1.81831.81813361.1938730776544.5122091666690.53568915205353163111122.5WETL
2025-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2025105-17933.94422.13628.04123.9432266103700.068.148.2TT1.94429.94413361.6184986759444.8201635278940.54097073437551163111122.5WETL
2025-01-10 03:00:04FORECAST2025105-17934.21422.69428.454123.6556293182100.078.068.13TT2.21430.21413361.4458326608944.6948119021270.55226291064771163111122.5WETL
2025-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2025105-17934.26822.24428.256125.0621166740900.077.948.01TT2.26818.26813362.2890528547245.3086357978630.55451656976379163111122.5WETL
2025-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2025105-17934.08821.8327.959125.058819359700.087.958.03TT2.08820.08813362.2870795627145.3071944393870.54699793175453163111122.5WETL
2025-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2025105-17935.38422.94629.165124.867864696900.097.897.98TT3.38421.38413362.172773724545.2237409063310.60059423172741163112125WETL
2025-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2025105-17933.54821.68627.617124.4468971217900.077.867.93TT1.54819.54813361.9205857837545.0398939052890.52435146591324163111122.5WETL
2025-01-09 07:00:03FORECAST2025105-17933.47621.66827.572124.6411457884300.077.837.9TT1.47619.47613362.0369873294945.1247049185370.52132436779577163111122.5WETL
2025-01-09 03:00:03FORECAST2025105-17936.60824.02630.317124.8643028731100.097.847.93TT4.60823.60813362.1706410829945.2221846199330.64954476195196163111122.5WETL
2025-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2025105-17935.61823.82829.723128.2913584848700.17.857.95TT3.61817.61813364.213694438246.725469638270.61010263445716163112125WETL
2025-01-08 19:00:02FORECAST2025105-17935.63623.91829.777128.191585689100.087.897.97TT3.63618.63613364.1544654719946.6815383646190.61083140830293163111122.5WETL
2025-01-08 15:00:02FORECAST2025105-17934.62822.2828.454128.6294599075700.097.948.03TT2.62813.62813364.4142928589946.8744136730530.56949253007349163111122.5WETL
2025-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2025105-17937.27423.12630.2128.5175795741800.17.877.97TT5.27417.27413364.3479323851746.8251143929980.67522822036655163112125WETL
2025-01-08 07:00:03FORECAST2025105-17937.50823.14430.326128.4783664526100.157.837.98TT5.50817.50813364.3246691303946.8078383482610.68406567762952163112125WETL
2025-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2025105-17935.88823.32429.606129.084940024700.297.728.01TT3.88813.88813364.6842608302547.0752459372240.62099224365862163112125WETL
2025-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2025105-17931.38821.2926.339132.0821544013100.337.818.14TT-0.6126.38813366.4529735679748.4018982356230.43371234866124162112124WETL
2025-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2025105-17931.2821.27226.276131.7676628857200.337.728.05TT-0.726.2813366.2680178653848.2622807039070.42923152346399162112124WETL
2025-01-07 15:00:02FORECAST2025105-17930.72220.94825.835131.0433191174600.237.697.92TT-1.2785.72213365.8414613850347.9410793706760.40623790131874162112124WETL
2025-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2025105-17929.89419.63424.764129.9530503459900.17.647.74TT-2.1062.89413365.197935051547.4585856399980.37272786572158162112124WETL
2025-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2025105-17930.18219.20224.692129.9794259340500.117.647.75TT-1.8187.18213365.2135241699847.4702442149630.38428889590263162112124WETL
2025-01-07 03:00:04FORECAST2025105-17930.18219.20224.692130.068607509800.117.677.78TT-1.8186.18213365.2662266209347.5096694669430.38428889590263162112124WETL
2025-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2025105-17929.69621.225.448133.6680799543400.117.898TT-2.3041.69613367.3834249575749.1074370211270.3648449176901162112124WETL
2025-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2025105-17929.91221.93825.925133.9315818821300.1188.11TT-2.088-0.08800000000000113367.5376569057449.2248997906360.37344720393985162112124WETL
2025-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2025105-17929.98422.33426.159133.0262503883500.118.028.13TT-2.0163.98413367.0073194910448.8216075769710.37632894436037162112124WETL
2025-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST2025105-17930.50621.3825.943133.1777308967900.067.637.69TT-1.4943.50613367.096140783748.8890310505420.39741868120189162111122WETL
2025-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST2025105-17930.5621.66826.114132.8876392560500.087.817.89TT-1.449.5613366.9260142676748.7599318176650.39961876662479162111122WETL
2025-01-06 03:00:03FORECAST2025105-17931.9123.68427.797133.1602087951500.087.857.93TT-0.0913.9113367.0858683666648.8812308774520.45547971083732162111122WETL
2025-01-05 23:00:02FORECAST2025105-17934.66426.09630.38127.7530534325300.057.627.67TT2.66410.66413363.8939578227846.488564237510.57098500982495163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 19:00:03FORECAST2025105-17934.35825.50229.93127.3294425936300.057.647.69TT2.3589.35813363.6420384786446.3023380630980.55826872137978163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2025105-17936.75228.14832.45127.9804268119900.067.857.91TT4.75221.75213364.0290639365646.5885949745690.65516119479767163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST2025105-17935.56428.5832.072129.6499876437800.097.527.61TT3.56419.56413365.0187368646447.3246747242490.60791399978075163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 07:00:04FORECAST2025105-17934.98827.35631.172129.6015073994400.097.617.7TT2.98820.98813364.9900581419547.3032617210050.584369204038163111122.5WETL
2025-01-05 03:00:04FORECAST2025105-17934.98827.35631.172129.1044502346200.097.367.45TT2.98820.98813364.6958177674847.0838530557350.584369204038163111122.5WETL
2025-01-04 23:00:03FORECAST2025105-17936.35628.02232.189127.3464163354700.127.447.56TT4.35626.35613363.652137895746.3097965537490.63963758502073163112125WETL
2025-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2025105-17936.35628.18432.27126.716894145400.17.347.44TT4.35625.35613363.2772791415446.0333685264080.63963758502073163112125WETL
2025-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2025105-17936.6827.24831.964124.6982048320400.086.916.99TT4.6825.6813362.0711684720245.14962472990.65235715609641163111122.5WETL
2025-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2025105-17942.18829.67835.933128.0649404712300.066.826.88TT10.18831.18813364.0792623814846.6257890636940.83478664158714164111123WETL
2025-01-04 07:00:04FORECAST2025105-17935.88828.47232.18129.3431890873800.336.747.07TT3.88824.88813364.8371891428647.1892055414120.62099224365862163112125WETL
2025-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2025105-17935.36627.73431.55128.73837556200.236.756.98TT3.36628.36613364.4788767565746.9224185203020.59986026013586163112125WETL
2025-01-03 23:00:03FORECAST2025105-17929.67828.61629.147128.8062872013200.076.916.98TT-2.32214.67813364.5191373923646.9523567013390.36413105227311162111122WETL
2025-01-03 19:00:03FORECAST2025105-17928.59826.63627.617128.997374752400.046.786.82TT-3.4028.59813364.6323841981347.0366203112670.32223952429421162111122WETL
2025-01-03 15:00:03FORECAST2025105-17927.39224.2625.826129.0335831357200.036.926.95TT-4.6085.39213364.6538366694847.052591149650.27801141746167162111122WETL
2025-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST2025105-17926.624.13425.367133.2642872336800.137.127.25TT-5.49.613367.1468781490648.9275670266050.25067283030535162112124WETL
2025-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST2025105-17926.92423.70225.313134.9367362628600.137.17.23TT-5.0768.92413368.1250430457449.6735918452160.26168242468457162112124WETL
2025-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST2025105-17927.10425.84426.474133.7182344875300.387.197.57TT-4.89611.10413367.4127891732349.1297894963850.26790420034465162112124WETL