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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 9, 2024

[ Sunday, December 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 10, 2024 ]

DAY 70 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/10/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.738
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 143

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 70 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 23.54 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-10 07:00:03OBSERVATION20257015040.3100618.1299229.2199969.87017058823502.555.37.85TT8.31006143.3100623336.9393946122 23.5420129794510.7379651331921216 42151217.5WETL
2024-12-10 03:00:03OBSERVATION20257015040.3100618.1299229.2199969.87017058823502.555.37.85TT8.31006143.3100623336.9393946122 23.5420129794510.7379651331921216 42151217.5WETL
2024-12-09 11:00:01FORECAST20257015031.2819.4925.3856902.555.37.85TT-0.72134.2823336.3619729104523.2089761308210.412514449837551622151212.5WETL
2024-12-09 07:00:03FORECAST20257015031.0119.45425.23269.02381208333302.555.37.85TT-0.99134.0123336.3777909559423.2180774319490.402554574019491622151212.5WETL
2024-12-09 03:00:03FORECAST20257015029.85818.1423.99969.02381208333302.555.37.85TT-2.142132.85823336.3777909559423.2180774319490.360838473153451622151212.5WETL
2024-12-08 23:00:01FORECAST20257015031.67618.98625.3315902.685.37.98TT-0.324130.67623329.6338212198819.4483954519730.427222964117031622151212.5WETL
2024-12-08 19:00:01FORECAST20257015031.92818.51825.2235902.685.37.98TT-0.071999999999999130.92823329.6338212198819.4483954519730.436637245525751622151212.5WETL
2024-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20257015031.2818.4124.8455902.685.37.98TT-0.72130.2823329.6338212198819.4483954519730.412514449837551622151212.5WETL
2024-12-08 11:00:01FORECAST20257015032.19819.29225.74564.58297617794302.685.37.98TT0.198131.19823333.4111930797221.5326871401270.446763811147761622151212.5WETL
2024-12-08 07:00:02FORECAST20257015032.2719.50825.88964.91707387661602.795.38.09TT0.27131.2723333.6355452310921.6586433376320.44947038232951622151212.5WETL
2024-12-08 03:00:03FORECAST20257015030.6519.25624.95365.11849822542502.815.38.11TT-1.35129.6523333.7707130621221.7346475862340.389373543063211622151212.5WETL
2024-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20257015031.92819.23825.58365.6149646143502.895.38.19TT-0.071999999999999126.92823334.1035766791721.9221943613320.436637245525751622151212.5WETL
2024-12-07 19:00:01FORECAST20257015032.77419.61626.19565.5092056089402.95.38.2TT0.774127.77423334.0327040881221.8822170922190.468475245698631622151212.5WETL
2024-12-07 15:00:01FORECAST20257015032.70219.79626.24965.1436313763502.825.38.12TT0.702127.70223333.7875740630621.744134682770.465754837414411622151212.5WETL
2024-12-07 11:00:02FORECAST20257015032.39619.43625.91667.16330039749402.855.38.15TT0.396127.39623335.1389907423622.5090407101420.454212468227171622151212.5WETL
2024-12-07 07:00:03FORECAST20257015032.21620.04826.13267.58867336452603.035.38.33TT0.216127.21623335.4227368609122.6707778007280.447440226551721622151212.5WETL
2024-12-07 03:00:03FORECAST20257015032.66621.43427.0567.07929039810302.875.38.17TT0.666128.66623335.0829153970822.4771241893640.464395225098931622151212.5WETL
2024-12-06 23:00:01FORECAST20257015032.91821.14627.03267.41910373044702.75.38TT0.918123.91823335.3096617509422.6062768674080.473920353912171622151212.5WETL
2024-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20257015033.00821.07427.04167.83479035744502.595.37.89TT1.008124.00823335.5867698753722.7644581812280.477326087473581622151212.5WETL
2024-12-06 15:00:02FORECAST20257015033.0820.64226.86167.48997048546802.495.37.79TT1.08124.0823335.356924167122.6332289141350.480051879150541622151212.5WETL
2024-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20257015032.73820.24626.49267.21907025675702.595.37.89TT0.738123.73823335.1762096332122.5302331837280.467114849548891622151212.5WETL
2024-12-06 07:00:04FORECAST20257015032.5420.80426.67267.50905138506702.655.37.95TT0.54123.5423335.3696481362622.6404868090220.459639958398821622151212.5WETL
2024-12-06 03:00:04FORECAST20257015029.42619.16624.29667.30984702163802.785.38.08TT-2.574117.42623335.2367796580322.5647363548090.345582999559311622151212.5WETL
2024-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20257015029.76819.72424.74667.5323934209402.55.37.8TT-2.232110.76823335.3852127767922.6493661368080.357640979224331622151212.5WETL
2024-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20257015029.71419.34624.5367.37833404509702.415.37.71TT-2.286110.71423335.2824678002522.590774114910.355727248549251622151212.5WETL
2024-12-05 15:00:02FORECAST20257015030.52420.51625.5266.64316434159502.335.37.63TT-1.476112.52423334.7916157799422.311572670610.384789237398781622151212.5WETL
2024-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20257015031.60420.58826.09668.32454796593202.645.37.94TT-0.396110.60423335.912880541722.9510957189460.424540520685991622151212.5WETL
2024-12-05 07:00:03FORECAST20257015031.60420.28225.94367.99823835411102.565.317.87TT-0.396110.60423335.6956486856522.8267127337640.424540520685991622151212.5WETL
2024-12-05 03:00:07FORECAST20257015031.3720.04825.70968.79109399242202.615.317.92TT-0.63108.3723336.2231584474823.1291588951890.415847305613191622151212.5WETL
2024-12-04 23:00:04FORECAST20257015030.41618.12224.26968.1392055710440.0003937012.3403937015.337.670393701TT-1.58498.41623335.7895159126322.8804308533720.380872581314451622151212.5WETL
2024-12-04 19:00:01FORECAST20257015029.89418.15824.02669.1033332380420.0003937012.5303937015.327.850393701TT-2.10697.89423336.4306088536123.2484764750890.362120212789641622151212.5WETL
2024-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20257015029.85818.30224.0869.1159604998340.0007874022.5407874025.317.850787402TT-2.14295.85823336.4389948909623.2533042814880.360838473153451622151212.5WETL
2024-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20257015031.83820.6626.24968.15493811360702.695.418.1TT-0.16298.83823335.799989810822.8864275241050.433270593385771622151212.5WETL
2024-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20257015032.19821.7426.96967.8237380662180.0003937012.8003937015.428.220393701TT0.19897.19823335.5794058999922.7602497261780.446763811147761622151212.5WETL
2024-12-04 03:00:03FORECAST20257015030.2920.55225.42168.8819466476270.0031496082.9131496085.418.323149608TT-1.7195.2923336.2835375315823.1638646907260.376318550175291622151212.5WETL
2024-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20257015029.44419.34624.39568.38940603800502.145.557.69TT-2.55679.44423335.9560366147222.9758337989630.346213869139911622151212.5WETL
2024-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20257015029.67820.26424.97168.65802566264102.255.567.81TT-2.32276.67823336.1346984122323.0783447496910.354453440716371622151212.5WETL
2024-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20257015029.73221.225.46667.70886087413502.15.597.69TT-2.26879.73223335.5028527125622.716515977190.356364757859911622151212.5WETL
2024-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20257015032.30622.11827.21266.52624261088101.865.67.46TT0.30688.30623334.7134659333722.2672292398120.450824558017811622151212.5WETL
2024-12-03 07:00:03FORECAST20257015031.42421.66826.54665.04409540213201.685.587.26TT-0.57685.42423333.7207923549421.706567055610.417849944092731622151212.5WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:03FORECAST20257015032.52222.11827.3264.47448697181901.555.637.18TT0.52285.52223333.338299817921.4918158688180.458961089596971622151212.5WETL
2024-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20257015031.4622.0126.73565.40127318475101.316.217.52TT-0.5478.4623333.9603553856821.8414324354550.419186224090341622141210WETL
2024-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20257015029.2119.74224.47666.53203374735201.686.428.1TT-2.7978.2123334.717337243722.2694251773220.338046415549881622151212.5WETL
2024-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20257015028.90420.33624.6266.91385281830401.476.68.07TT-3.09674.90423334.972453441122.4142974477440.327480300784781622141210WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20257015027.24821.36224.30569.77761714701701.487.779.25TT-4.75266.24823336.8780392833923.5065468503540.272833320497731622141210WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:03FORECAST20257015026.97822.08224.5370.97787266070501.527.829.34TT-5.02263.97823337.672591852823.9672822255380.264370768802611622151212.5WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:04FORECAST20257015032.68426.27629.4869.4042827151150.0031496081.9931496088.3110.303149608TT0.68473.68423336.630402735923.3635916419850.46507498029211622151212.5WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20257015037.36429.51633.4468.13966292830301.776.538.3TT5.36471.36423335.7898204029122.880605177010.639490043650631632151215WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20257015037.34629.91233.62968.97387825305901.736.538.26TT5.34672.34623336.3446194861623.198992835510.6388495679771632151215WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20257015036.5930.39833.49466.824296308770.1645670181.4045670186.067.464567018TT4.5975.5923334.9126375798422.3803013311870.611618652468521632141212WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20257015038.7533.76436.25761.8324648343640.1645670180.7445670186.096.834567018TT6.7576.7523331.5569255504220.5009819396860.68751360854896163213129WETL
2024-12-01 07:00:03FORECAST20257015039.57833.78236.6862.193708225890.1921260880.9021260886.197.092126088TT7.57876.57823331.8011987416820.6359469435410.714815165697121642131210.5WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:04FORECAST20257015039.57833.78236.6861.0641113871470.1921260880.9021260886.197.092126088TT7.57876.57823331.036618121720.2144569222080.714815165697121642131210.5WETL
2024-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20257015039.34432.75636.0563.6205127190510.2314961881.5314961886.027.551496188TT7.34479.34423332.7638176342721.1706046922410.707215289353451642151217.5WETL
2024-11-30 19:00:03FORECAST20257015036.8631.2834.0764.1109651311420.1921260881.1921260885.867.052126088TT4.8668.8623333.0939051561121.3549717388590.621414999995481632141212WETL
2024-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20257015040.85631.85636.35662.34435723075400.825.946.76TT8.85666.85623331.9030015628920.6922792953960.75458057298171642131210.5WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20257015037.4930.77634.13367.354786189920.2039371181.0139371186.047.053937118TT5.4955.4923335.2667597682722.5818209207790.643962336172571632141212WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:05FORECAST20257015038.73231.42435.07866.7139403585740.4318899971.3718899976.377.741889997TT6.73258.73223334.8389108078822.3384231253670.68690774842351632141212WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20257015039.07431.94635.5167.4287379473330.4748034061.4548034066.377.824803406TT7.07467.07423335.3160874970922.6099405933660.698331281958081632141212WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20257015034.32229.94832.13571.5757346715050.1271654230.7471654237.247.987165423TT2.32255.32223338.067465362524.1974272018540.52710985859005163213129WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20257015041.0931.44236.26667.45057418109900.486.857.33TT9.0964.0923335.330651056222.6182449542620.76152522166419164212127WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20257015040.85632.14436.568.4925137575700.826.977.79TT8.85660.85623336.0246290819523.0151715302780.75458057298171642131210.5WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20257015034.1632.88233.52169.73301545053701.066.837.89TT2.1650.1623336.8484668717623.4894593448580.520979269763611632141212WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:05FORECAST20257015035.13232.75633.94467.51677486059200.956.837.78TT3.13260.13223335.3747983084822.643424751310.55763780849892163213129WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20257015035.13234.7934.96167.16601289595500.956.837.78TT3.13260.13223335.1408010927622.5100713681570.55763780849892163213129WETL