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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 8, 2024

[ Saturday, December 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, December 9, 2024 ]

DAY 69 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/09/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.384
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 135

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.28 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 69 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 23.29 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-09 07:00:03OBSERVATION20256914929.3500419.3299824.3400169.0238120833331.28000000000012.55000000000015.357.9000000000001TT-2.64996135.3500424337.36968954939 23.286542054070.3841503213644416 23151215WETL
2024-12-09 03:00:03OBSERVATION20256914929.3500419.3299824.3400169.0238120833331.28000000000012.55000000000015.357.9000000000001TT-2.64996135.3500424337.36968954939 23.286542054070.3841503213644416 23151215WETL
2024-12-08 11:00:01FORECAST20256914924.96219.23822.164.5840585779431.4102369822.6802369825.358.030236982TT-7.038130.96224334.4150677524421.597882325070.240829779480841613151212.5WETL
2024-12-08 07:00:02FORECAST20256914924.99821.81223.40564.9185498766161.5240165712.7940165715.358.144016571TT-7.002130.99824334.6388315628421.7242676774650.241876341266151613151212.5WETL
2024-12-08 03:00:03FORECAST20256914925.12422.06423.59465.1145322482991.5405520132.8105520135.358.160552013TT-6.876131.12424334.7698491025121.7983821351440.245558630433711613151212.5WETL
2024-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20256914925.84421.81223.82865.6066155607361.5574811562.8874811565.358.237481156TT-6.156126.84424335.0985278222321.9846802898010.267164538941241623151215WETL
2024-12-07 19:00:01FORECAST20256914926.1522.26224.20665.515896808941.5700795882.9000795885.358.250079588TT-5.85127.1524335.0379646501621.9503127190970.276628826392351623151215WETL
2024-12-07 15:00:01FORECAST20256914925.9722.0123.9965.148059376351.4917330892.8217330895.358.171733089TT-6.03126.9724334.7922560240121.8110657741950.271041755091431623151215WETL
2024-12-07 11:00:02FORECAST20256914925.55621.66823.61267.1550502589271.5224417672.8524417675.358.202441767TT-6.444126.55624336.1301024209422.5728339216170.258408591470871623151215WETL
2024-12-07 07:00:02FORECAST20256914925.53821.90223.7267.5885912679921.5173236543.0273236545.358.377323654TT-6.462126.53824336.4182032476222.7380324344160.257866316321231623151215WETL
2024-12-07 03:00:03FORECAST20256914926.18622.20824.19767.0845002312891.4106306832.8706306835.358.220630683TT-5.814128.18624336.0831898190522.5459728251490.277752968406421623151215WETL
2024-12-06 23:00:01FORECAST20256914926.16821.77623.97267.4293373304471.2464573662.6964573665.358.046457366TT-5.832123.16824336.312411157822.6773230203750.277190618936741623151215WETL
2024-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20256914926.29421.99224.14367.8422280481651.263780212.593780215.357.94378021TT-5.706123.29424336.5866053548822.8347852384430.281138702780141623151215WETL
2024-12-06 15:00:02FORECAST20256914926.2422.20824.22467.5018768854681.1673234652.4873234655.357.837323465TT-5.76123.2424336.3606043539822.7049721042240.279443348063431623151215WETL
2024-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20256914926.16822.94624.55767.2269422567571.3287408752.5887408755.357.938740875TT-5.832123.16824336.1778987255822.6002121856220.277190618936741623151215WETL
2024-12-06 07:00:03FORECAST20256914926.16822.60424.38667.5137745850671.3590558522.6490558525.357.999055852TT-5.832123.16824336.3685079961522.7095076263670.277190618936741623151215WETL
2024-12-06 03:00:03FORECAST20256914925.4321.16423.29767.3098470216381.3460637192.7760637195.358.126063719TT-6.57120.4324336.2330058667422.6317921885160.254625091611451623151215WETL
2024-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20256914925.3420.91223.12667.5148186111921.0897643682.4997643685.357.849764368TT-6.66113.3424336.3692015313322.7099056277790.251940438153971623151215WETL
2024-12-05 19:00:01FORECAST20256914924.9821.48823.23467.3569529729111.0665360092.4065360095.357.756536009TT-7.02112.9824336.2643122184122.6497394645640.241352752655831613151212.5WETL
2024-12-05 15:00:01FORECAST20256914925.66422.26223.96366.6257344639510.9622052442.3322052445.357.682205244TT-6.336113.66424335.7779260188222.3714509377860.261674588423271623151215WETL
2024-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20256914924.821.18222.99168.3245479659320.9259847522.6359847525.357.985984752TT-7.2110.824336.9065424423323.0189872191370.236150836604641613151212.5WETL
2024-12-05 07:00:03FORECAST20256914925.59220.64223.11767.9982383541110.9011815892.5711815895.357.921181589TT-6.408110.59224336.6901345008922.8943360172690.259494909053071623151215WETL
2024-12-05 03:00:07FORECAST20256914925.21420.40822.81168.7910939924220.8720477152.6220477155.357.972047715TT-6.786109.21424337.2156435294323.1974330297480.248207132302121613151212.5WETL
2024-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20256914925.35820.85823.10868.1347694036310.7775594752.3675594755.357.717559475TT-6.642100.35824336.7807034688222.9464755704410.252476172845011623151215WETL
2024-12-04 19:00:01FORECAST20256914925.08820.5722.82969.0988970706290.8712603132.5512603135.357.901260313TT-6.912100.08824337.4193720758523.3153064607050.244503489551041613151212.5WETL
2024-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20256914925.30421.00223.15369.1104162712270.9145674232.5545674235.357.904567423TT-6.69698.30424337.4269933070123.3197199685960.250870768621441623151215WETL
2024-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20256914925.57420.9323.25268.1549381136070.6098428492.7798428495.378.149842849TT-6.42698.57424336.7940798821622.9541796713980.258951456009781623151215WETL
2024-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20256914925.82621.4723.64867.7951545688310.6562995672.8862995675.388.266299567TT-6.17496.82624336.5553591229822.8168225927110.266612942135421623151215WETL
2024-12-04 03:00:03FORECAST20256914925.50221.05623.27968.8531156758720.732283863.002283865.378.37228386TT-6.49896.50224337.2567072247623.221175075010.256783537707821623151215WETL
2024-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20256914926.63620.10223.36968.3894060380050.5527562042.3927562045.357.742756204TT-5.36481.63624336.9495348334623.0437785520420.291989625585641623151215WETL
2024-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20256914925.66420.49823.08168.6580256626410.5897640982.5097640985.357.859764098TT-6.33678.66424337.1275190044423.1465098513890.261674588423271623151215WETL
2024-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20256914925.9720.87623.42367.7045268204850.5437010812.3837010815.367.743701081TT-6.0381.9724336.4951921042722.7822477587880.271041755091431623151215WETL
2024-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20256914928.420.58824.49466.5077863772010.5031498782.1331498785.387.513149878TT-3.688.424335.6993855898322.3266230237660.350803379842131623151215WETL
2024-12-03 07:00:03FORECAST20256914927.35621.0224.18864.9854490942310.4110238441.9610238445.357.311023844TT-4.64486.35624334.6835621564721.7495615911950.315447894044091623151215WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:03FORECAST20256914927.24820.73223.9964.4227689429230.3106300891.8606300895.377.230630089TT-4.75285.24824334.3071022716121.5369892056220.311878199165031623151215WETL
2024-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20256914928.38222.44225.41265.396299943620.3448820762.0848820765.497.574882076TT-3.61879.38224334.9581013328821.9050204633110.350181604301441623151215WETL
2024-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20256914929.19224.24226.71766.5272512938520.2389765072.5089765075.648.148976507TT-2.80881.19224335.7123487006622.3340197844580.378535479868841623151215WETL
2024-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20256914929.4824.06226.77166.9088795771730.1031496622.4431496625.688.123149662TT-2.5278.4824335.9663734502422.4791336231620.388785877541781623151215WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20256914926.25821.59623.92769.7776171470170.318897813.148897816.159.29889781TT-5.74271.25824337.8680405404223.5756267790420.280007914909731623151215WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:03FORECAST20256914926.13221.59623.86470.9778726607050.2988190593.2288190596.169.388819059TT-5.86869.13224338.6595795394824.0373365118810.276067591797421623151215WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:03FORECAST20256914927.9522.1925.0769.374659582360.2657481754.1557481756.1910.345748175TT-4.0572.9524337.6017584055723.4210070637920.335382703826341623151215WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20256914930.27225.71827.99568.348423549240.4295277912.8095277915.548.349527791TT-1.72866.27224336.9223696448523.02811282370.417355816574261623151215WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20256914930.54226.13228.33769.1948749510110.4248033792.6648033795.658.314803379TT-1.45866.54224337.4828652977423.3520846623860.427204434504311623151215WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20256914930.54226.04228.29266.100889948330.5059057851.7359057855.617.345905785TT-1.45870.54224335.4282567319622.1721062837990.427204434504311623151215WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20256914934.55628.4931.52361.5095054579460.0881890240.8181890245.96.718189024TT2.55669.55624332.3493623389220.442644916730.575599054416211633131210.5WETL
2024-12-01 07:00:03FORECAST20256914935.04228.25631.64961.7659516708420.1503937821.1403937825.816.950393782TT3.04269.04224332.5222786328820.5385549915170.593263216182821633141214WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:04FORECAST20256914935.04228.25631.64960.6026144471220.1503937821.1403937825.816.950393782TT3.04269.04224331.7369605399820.1041271174650.593263216182821633141214WETL
2024-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST20256914935.72627.84231.78463.0563169194310.2870080291.6170080295.757.367008029TT3.72671.72624333.3906376612321.0223857063370.61779813203951633151217.5WETL
2024-11-30 19:00:03FORECAST20256914931.87425.12428.49963.1181048090850.2051182211.1851182215.726.905118221TT-0.12663.87424333.4321468311321.0456051904060.476340337428281623141212WETL
2024-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20256914933.49426.99630.24562.8844246981140.0586614491.1486614495.666.808661449TT1.49458.49424333.275126007820.9578145651920.536515406187511633141214WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20256914932.1826.65429.41766.3838293137220.4866144361.3266144365.576.896614436TT0.1850.1824335.6168184821122.2795295929310.487707080994331623141212WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:04FORECAST20256914931.56826.34828.95866.9670948082420.3492127871.6092127875.757.359212787TT-0.43251.56824336.005101844422.5012855112670.46499281450441623151215WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20256914936.37430.95633.66567.583262715550.3728348471.5828348475.827.402834847TT4.37460.37424336.4146641922322.7360006314670.640615115439361633151217.5WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20256914937.0763234.53870.2327467238870.2200788591.6300788596.287.910078859TT5.07653.07624338.168471372223.7505005998880.664777752892971633151217.5WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20256914938.9333.5336.2367.6085061810990.2173229521.4373229525.947.377322952TT6.9354.9324336.4314296767422.7456263928160.725200087288241643141216WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20256914938.40829.8434.12468.668354557570.3007875641.9007875645.947.840787564TT6.40852.40824337.1343603832523.1504617923370.708737344312841643151220WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20256914934.4330.0232.22569.8085866505370.1397638552.4297638555.517.939763855TT2.4348.4324337.8884945100723.5875182472260.570993038677861633151217.5WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20256914943.80829.15636.48267.5979548605920.0342519872.3242519875.517.834251987TT11.80856.80824336.4244221325722.7416029013180.853881698987141653151222.5WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20256914943.80829.15636.48267.1983864959550.0342519872.3242519875.517.834251987TT11.80856.80824336.1589149058722.5893366879060.853881698987141653151222.5WETL
2024-11-28 23:00:04FORECAST20256914937.63429.26433.44969.431672777540.0956693431.3856693436.457.835669343TT5.63458.63424337.6394503798623.4428718355630.683515087431291633141214WETL
2024-11-28 19:00:03FORECAST20256914937.97631.3734.67367.3964683348830.0956693431.3956693436.457.845669343TT5.97675.97624336.2905710180322.6647968209360.694774706754351633141214WETL
2024-11-28 15:00:03FORECAST20256914938.10236.12237.11265.6029586797040.1736221411.1336221416.447.573622141TT6.10277.10224335.0960867852421.9832947351030.698877752208811633141214WETL
2024-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20256914940.33436.75238.54365.74247135399600.245.926.16TF8.33477.33424335.1891980576522.0361662514740.76707515631103164312128WETL
2024-11-28 07:00:04FORECAST20256914940.15437.99439.07466.39119520126700.326.356.67TT8.15472.15424335.6217255851922.2823274971120.7619121500956164312128WETL
2024-11-28 03:00:04FORECAST20256914938.7538.15638.45366.89970421234700.767.077.83TT6.7562.7524335.9602689041822.475642616790.719575313368621643131212WETL