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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 7, 2024

[ Friday, December 6, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 8, 2024 ]

DAY 68 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/08/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.880
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 136

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.54 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 331.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 18.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-08 07:00:02OBSERVATION20256814843.9199625.1000634.5100158.8597904166671.271.275.546.81TT11.91996135.9199625331.57008443205 19.5161456781070.8804143314924916 53141218WETL
2024-12-08 03:00:03OBSERVATION20256814843.9199625.1000634.5100158.8597904166671.271.275.546.81TT11.91996135.9199625331.57008443205 19.5161456781070.8804143314924916 53141218WETL
2024-12-07 11:00:02FORECAST20256814839.25421.6530.45260.7909010191131.3283471741.3283471745.546.868347174TT7.254131.25425332.8732396277620.2356641621220.759988908959691643141216WETL
2024-12-07 07:00:02FORECAST20256814838.76822.33430.55161.2942799345621.5082685311.5082685315.547.048268531TT6.768130.76825333.2118816540820.4239823516270.744490816872021643151220WETL
2024-12-07 03:00:03FORECAST20256814839.52423.1831.35261.2500229157021.4574811021.4574811025.546.997481102TT7.524131.52425333.1821256417320.4074128306580.768372644977881643141216WETL
2024-12-06 23:00:01FORECAST20256814839.18223.05431.11861.9952311233541.4515755871.4515755875.546.991575587TT7.182127.18225333.6827173540720.6867371842350.75772566699891643141216WETL
2024-12-06 19:00:01FORECAST20256814839.12822.96431.04662.3333060794451.3295282771.3295282775.546.869528277TT7.128127.12825333.9095060926420.8136834461090.756020686072751643141216WETL
2024-12-06 15:00:02FORECAST20256814839.16423.05431.10962.4304549537361.3224416591.3224416595.546.862441659TT7.164127.16425333.974639859620.8501887094450.757158057431621643141216WETL
2024-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20256814839.03823.41431.22661.3816364946931.255906191.255906195.546.79590619TT7.038127.03825333.2706056373920.45669516960.753164748318851643141216WETL
2024-12-06 07:00:03FORECAST20256814839.32623.93631.63161.5106601523321.2921266821.2921266825.546.832126682TT7.326127.32625333.3573157973320.5050285613030.762240591885811643141216WETL
2024-12-06 03:00:03FORECAST20256814838.85823.5431.19961.2141385071971.4263787231.4263787235.546.966378723TT6.858124.85825333.1579964614820.3939797401730.747399685024581643141216WETL
2024-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20256814838.76823.75631.26262.2395925515031.4110243841.4110243845.546.951024384TT6.768117.76825333.8466603327320.7784801137890.744490816872021643141216WETL
2024-12-05 19:00:01FORECAST20256814838.55223.91831.23562.2218097355091.33858341.33858345.546.8785834TT6.552117.55225333.8347332090120.7718012528360.737438886407051643141216WETL
2024-12-05 15:00:01FORECAST20256814838.51624.09831.30762.0377262019881.3704731811.3704731815.546.910473181TT6.516117.51625333.7112347678720.7026862130570.736253967268451643141216WETL
2024-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20256814837.81423.50430.65963.8160694260821.7106308451.7106308455.547.250630845TT5.814115.81425334.9018821545721.3721217625010.71261696284121643151220WETL
2024-12-05 07:00:03FORECAST20256814837.68823.77430.73163.5852109073671.6570875091.6670875095.547.207087509TT5.688114.68825334.7476199267921.2849980137840.708270798617961643151220WETL
2024-12-05 03:00:07FORECAST20256814838.33622.26230.29964.3423889142611.7397647191.7497647195.547.289764719TT6.336114.33625335.2532366761721.5709941389830.730288797434581643151220WETL
2024-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20256814837.86822.69430.28164.0373198827051.5645677741.5945677745.547.134567774TT5.868104.86825335.0496393049921.4556809287590.71447019198781643151220WETL
2024-12-04 19:00:01FORECAST20256814837.95822.96430.46164.5253698931831.6594497151.6794497155.547.219449715TT5.958104.95825335.3752790921721.6402139364520.717546218293751643151220WETL
2024-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20256814836.66223.34230.00264.2384692519241.6318906451.6418906455.547.181890645TT4.662102.66225335.1839003517921.5317006764880.67179654160851633151217.5WETL
2024-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20256814837.79623.52230.65964.9184388377152.0814971872.1914971875.547.731497187TT5.796102.79625335.6372516943321.7890463957770.711997959171541643151220WETL
2024-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20256814837.81424.24231.02864.3731307290072.1421271412.2621271415.547.802127141TT5.814100.81425335.2737444403721.5826205808640.71261696284121643151220WETL
2024-12-04 03:00:03FORECAST20256814837.63424.65631.14565.0101702109532.1767728292.2867728295.547.826772829TT5.634100.63425335.6983511900421.8238069504010.706398835939841643151220WETL
2024-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20256814837.99422.65830.32665.06098083641.590552041.840552045.547.38055204TT5.99484.99425335.732188486121.8430654812570.71877215587421643151220WETL
2024-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20256814836.89622.83829.86765.1097909691491.6598434161.9198434165.547.459843416TT4.89682.89625335.764689443421.8615687444810.680277636460251633151217.5WETL
2024-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20256814838.60623.4531.02864.5189443326591.5559063521.8459063525.547.385906352TT6.60685.60625335.3709944112621.6377825192080.739211149297171643151220WETL
2024-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20256814839.12823.5431.33463.6967534939751.3637802641.6637802645.547.203780264TT7.12890.12825334.8221652170221.3270849221470.756020686072751643151220WETL
2024-12-03 07:00:03FORECAST20256814839.4724.09831.78462.6269468355971.2720479311.5520479315.547.092047931TT7.4789.4725334.106329338820.9240593249370.766709047410931643151220WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:03FORECAST20256814839.7421.66830.70462.5790102938521.2366148411.5666148415.547.106614841TT7.7487.7425334.074208178320.90603331250.774960599711411643151220WETL
2024-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20256814839.97422.92831.45163.1472654829630.9657485531.8757485535.547.415748553TT7.97480.97425334.4547312478721.1199017061420.781976400841631643151220WETL
2024-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20256814840.4624.54832.50465.0256969291631.4381897532.5581897535.548.098189753TT8.4682.4625335.7086916591721.8296916403150.796138468402591643151220WETL
2024-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20256814839.21824.60231.9165.3421094756151.3673235732.6673235735.548.207323573TT7.21879.21825335.9193269789121.9496774384310.758858729131331643151220WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20256814838.26424.13431.19967.7920758491291.1562998373.6262998375.549.166299837TT6.26475.26425337.5445482796722.8828456194360.727883974433531643151220WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:03FORECAST20256814838.15624.02631.09169.1323290460641.2169297913.7369297915.549.276929791TT6.15673.15625338.4293546325423.3964095033040.724256892012341643151220WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:03FORECAST20256814838.0323.41430.72267.7373752550751.724410384.734410385.5410.27441038TT6.0375.0325337.5083721079822.8619312532080.719995521329011643151220WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20256814839.27227.35633.31465.7301079626911.3362211942.5662211945.548.106221194TT7.27266.27225336.177385983522.096975875310.760552915669141643151220WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20256814839.23626.79833.01766.685286907911.3125991342.5425991345.548.082599134TT7.23666.23625336.8115958300722.4603779018390.759424179803141643151220WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20256814839.84828.99434.42163.1449343109210.7326775611.4926775615.547.032677561TT7.84869.84825334.4531713371821.1190235341660.778214413548391643141216WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20256814838.91234.86236.88760.9178820878850.4933073531.2833073535.546.823307353TT6.91264.91225332.9587054327520.2831391576870.749136607557731643141216WETL
2024-12-01 07:00:03FORECAST20256814838.89434.37636.63561.1935660597560.562992431.452992435.546.99299243TT6.89463.89425333.1441622670120.3862793011080.748558335714341643141216WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20256814838.89434.37636.63560.0069708296760.562992431.452992435.546.99299243TT6.89463.89425332.3449971933919.9430165519730.748558335714341643141216WETL
2024-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST20256814841.59433.38637.4961.4533629791461.0082682611.7282682615.547.268268261TT9.59465.59425333.3188128237320.4835619922350.826982536343041643151220WETL
2024-11-30 19:00:03FORECAST20256814841.61230.4736.04161.7933319961960.7897642061.3497642065.546.889764206TT9.61261.61225333.547185698720.6109919822770.827446907468221643141216WETL
2024-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20256814837.09431.44234.26862.5058910581450.7645673421.4045673425.546.944567342TT5.09455.09425334.025205147720.8785430836360.687381330049121633141214WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20256814837.45431.13634.29563.2050300286690.3244096241.0644096245.546.604409624TT5.45448.45425334.4933816148921.141664229360.700119195628141643141216WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:04FORECAST20256814837.36429.3933.37764.4935932174050.5921263041.6621263045.547.202126304TT5.36450.36425335.3540891431721.6281902089930.696956766864791633151217.5WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20256814839.1132.1835.64565.6749757822880.6122050551.6822050555.547.222205055TT7.1154.1125336.1407328977222.0760344924980.75545092621011643151220WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20256814838.64233.47636.05969.2187839018010.4000002162.3400002165.547.880000216TT6.64245.64225338.4863269198123.4296119167770.74038923392951643151220WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20256814840.3735.79838.08467.0860289334670.2562993511.8062993515.547.346299351TT8.3746.3725337.0772185241722.6131720347250.79355795153931643151220WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20256814838.73232.3635.54668.105064391890.5244097322.1944097325.547.734409732TT6.73243.73225337.751446242323.0025839947860.743322395588921643151220WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20256814837.07631.4634.26869.2572538680640.9220477422.4520477425.547.992047742TT5.07644.07625338.5116739549523.4443889404010.68673835381041633151217.5WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20256814837.56231.80234.68267.8972158808470.9200792372.4500792375.547.990079237TT5.56242.56225337.6140683987322.923055286480.703894280025641643151220WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20256814837.56231.80234.68267.4891152886960.9200792372.4500792375.547.990079237TT5.56242.56225337.344122492522.767056374860.703894280025641643151220WETL
2024-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20256814841.43232.10836.7768.7306119735820.8334650172.1934650175.747.933465017TT9.43251.43225338.1644656926523.2422506747750.822767513962761643151220WETL
2024-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20256814844.45634.739.57866.7885299056990.8374020272.1974020275.747.937402027TT12.45668.45625336.8800539493622.499723557830.890873586297831653151222.5WETL
2024-11-28 15:00:03FORECAST20256814845.78837.88641.83765.8388234797040.6657483911.8457483915.747.585748391TT13.78868.78825336.2496474116122.1382811810460.913989383632531653151222.5WETL
2024-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20256814846.25635.85241.05466.0298977539960.1830709650.4130709655.946.353070965TF14.25667.25625336.3766030156722.2109127039610.92117679930911165312129WETL
2024-11-28 07:00:04FORECAST20256814844.04234.3439.19166.6955464012670.2535434440.8135434446.056.863543444TT12.04262.04225336.8183994736822.4642871908970.88285542674851653131213.5WETL
2024-11-28 03:00:04FORECAST20256814846.56235.1540.85666.9702570123470.6161420651.7861420656.238.016142065TT14.56253.56225337.0005095217822.5690107359660.925624935219631653151222.5WETL
2024-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20256814838.31836.8637.58966.69683040.1007874563.4707874566.8610.330787456TT6.31851.31825336.8192509525422.4647764562360.729688589704481643151220WETL
2024-11-27 19:00:02FORECAST20256814837.54436.26636.90567.5510963266240.1082677753.6482677756.9310.578267775TT5.54440.54425337.3851390540222.790736027410.703266614027951643151220WETL
2024-11-27 15:00:02FORECAST20256814837.74234.53836.1469.5353191572110.0051181132.4751181136.438.905118113TT5.74234.74225338.6948115738923.5512518196820.710137185838381643151220WETL
2024-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20256814837.23836.48236.8670.9534834192930.3984254121.6084254125.717.318425412TT5.23835.23825339.6268246050224.0977062683590.69250451062561633151217.5WETL
2024-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20256814840.22638.17439.268.1313581390010.043307110.663307116.36.96330711TT8.22640.22625337.7688199740523.012648441840.789389186937341643131212WETL
2024-11-27 03:00:05FORECAST20256814840.17240.04640.10967.7387031026030.0074803190.2074803195.896.097480319TF8.17243.17225337.5092503378622.8624389030180.78781327889022164312128WETL