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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 6, 2024

[ Thursday, December 5, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 7, 2024 ]

DAY 67 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/07/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.58°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.962
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 119

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 332.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-07 07:00:02OBSERVATION20256714747.8799637.2799442.5799559.125537916667006.236.23TF15.87996118.8799626332.75924770817 19.6745695174910.9618654925336816 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-07 03:00:03OBSERVATION20256714747.8799637.2799442.5799559.125537916667006.236.23TF15.87996118.8799626332.75924770817 19.6745695174910.9618654925336816 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20256714743.53832.5438.03959.3047056006.236.23TF11.538114.53826332.8798820786219.7413434068350.89907863163394165311124.5WETL
2024-12-06 07:00:03FORECAST20256714743.66433.1738.41759.288516516667006.236.23TF11.664114.66426332.8689841553119.7353082649780.90159760315596165311124.5WETL
2024-12-06 03:00:03FORECAST20256714742.22431.69436.95959.4138781166670.0015748040.0015748046.236.231574804TF10.224113.22426332.9533614899319.7820504380970.86998229018942165311124.5WETL
2024-12-05 23:00:01FORECAST20256714742.9831.6437.3160.4150120.0015748040.0015748046.236.231574804TF10.98105.9826333.626233136420.1560328784510.88735957810236165311124.5WETL
2024-12-05 19:00:01FORECAST20256714742.69231.15436.92360.3939544006.236.23TF10.692105.69226333.6120977313520.1481538176750.88094551613481165311124.5WETL
2024-12-05 15:00:01FORECAST20256714743.03431.2837.15760.363844006.236.23TF11.034106.03426333.5918841096720.1368884520620.88853429801525165311124.5WETL
2024-12-05 11:00:01FORECAST20256714741.97230.43436.20360.1504396692020.0007874020.0007874026.236.230787402TF9.972104.97226333.4485778524720.0570785648960.86379888155167165311124.5WETL
2024-12-05 07:00:02FORECAST20256714741.25231.58636.41960.3898261503980.0090551230.0090551236.236.239055123TF9.252104.25226333.6093264588920.1466092270040.84503987629071164311124WETL
2024-12-05 03:00:07FORECAST20256714741.25231.33436.29360.4298666953650.0102362260.0102362266.236.240236226TF9.252103.25226333.6362042422920.1615913471090.84503987629071164311124WETL
2024-12-04 23:00:02FORECAST20256714741.41432.55836.98661.1256620394520.0263779670.0263779676.236.256377967TF9.41494.41426334.1028305193220.4222567047480.84940227796227165311124.5WETL
2024-12-04 19:00:01FORECAST20256714741.0931.96436.52761.1729328369410.0185039470.0185039476.236.248503947TF9.0994.0926334.1345021704520.4399874597780.84059505376293164311124WETL
2024-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20256714741.12631.8236.47361.1084960.0145669370.0145669376.236.244566937TF9.12693.12626334.0913282529120.4158185961770.84158991653849164311124WETL
2024-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20256714740.6431.80236.22160.2612435201090.0874016220.1074016226.236.337401622TF8.6491.6426333.5229950592420.0985104248210.82781595150551164312128WETL
2024-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20256714739.90232.03635.96960.048589425530.0881890240.1181890246.236.348189024TF7.90289.90226333.380155520320.0190080814580.80548842224332164312128WETL
2024-12-04 03:00:03FORECAST20256714740.02831.87435.95160.0703299704320.0940945390.1140945396.236.344094539TF8.02890.02826333.3947621631120.0271333735520.80942009830876164312128WETL
2024-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20256714739.72232.0935.90661.2678480781960.248031630.248031636.236.47803163TF7.72273.72226334.1980843350920.4755974590660.79978702985695164312128WETL
2024-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20256714739.05632.03635.54661.3638733565530.2625985670.2625985676.236.492598567TF7.05673.05626334.2623944986420.5116352438730.77783678620087164312128WETL
2024-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20256714739.95632.0936.02361.3592476436360.2791340090.2891340096.236.519134009TF7.95673.95626334.2592969202720.5098989769190.80717942191736164312128WETL
2024-12-03 11:00:01FORECAST20256714741.12632.937.01360.6524450776930.2736221950.3036221956.236.533622195TF9.12678.12626333.7855633150520.2449105466930.84158991653849164312128WETL
2024-12-03 07:00:03FORECAST20256714740.92832.41436.67160.2526943006560.2803151120.2803151126.236.510315112TF8.92876.92826333.5172540456420.0953131520060.83606779522394164312128WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:03FORECAST20256714739.95632.50436.2360.2244205501510.3122048930.3322048936.236.562204893TT7.95674.95626333.4982666306920.0847398623130.80717942191736164312128WETL
2024-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20256714739.9234.30437.11261.5104756374790.7732287640.9132287646.237.143228764TT7.9267.9226334.3605469037420.5666762744570.806053086900261643131212WETL
2024-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20256714740.51434.37637.44561.721545318960.8275595021.1175595026.237.347559502TT8.51468.51426334.5017970156620.6459678237760.824124045867731643141216WETL
2024-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20256714739.72234.05236.88762.2402032464050.9728351711.3028351716.237.532835171TT7.72266.72226334.8485670074320.841042867310.799787029856951643141216WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20256714739.97433.54836.76164.1377849126221.6677174362.4677174366.238.697717436TT7.97463.97426336.1133868375721.5575681112410.8077410910881643151220WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:03FORECAST20256714740.13633.69236.91465.1074213482421.7082686392.5182686396.238.748268639TT8.13662.13626336.7573416312221.9254021336980.812751061926971643151220WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:03FORECAST20256714740.22635.70837.96761.7940069282892.1673240053.0073240056.239.237324005TT8.22664.22626334.550271649120.6732018041450.815499247073751643151220WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20256714741.48636.42838.95762.2732672098021.0370084341.2270084346.237.457008434TT9.48654.48626334.8706577880920.853489953160.851314683449311653141218WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:01FORECAST20256714741.23436.33838.78662.8663409103150.9255910511.2255910516.237.455591051TT9.23454.23426335.266588791321.0769836667920.844550078042811643141216WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20256714741.61236.12238.86762.0591586820750.4996065690.7596065696.236.989606569TT9.61256.61226334.7275741485920.7729116393530.854622279372631653131213.5WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20256714740.38835.02437.70661.6413188878850.2366143010.7866143016.237.016614301TT8.38853.38826334.4481175422220.6158230648730.820382516418711643131212WETL
2024-12-01 07:00:03FORECAST20256714740.0135.00637.50861.9461292597560.4283466880.8883466886.237.118346688TT8.0152.0126334.6520078845220.7303965374510.808861429850241643131212WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20256714740.0134.59237.30160.7595340296760.4283466880.8883466886.237.118346688TT8.0152.0126333.8573942404920.2850197064140.808861429850241643131212WETL
2024-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST2025671474134.41237.70662.2208837982250.3185041090.7185041096.236.948504109TT95126334.8356583890420.8337705921270.838090086105411643131212WETL
2024-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20256714739.34434.37636.8662.4225783520780.1937008920.5637008926.236.793700892TT7.34447.34426334.9703928319320.9097155921770.787492570182551643131212WETL
2024-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20256714739.52434.55637.0462.8363959901220.330708840.640708846.236.87070884TT7.52444.52426335.2466121087921.0656888728150.793401111951981643131212WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20256714740.15435.45637.80562.7833334655320.5185042170.7385042176.236.968504217TT8.15438.15426335.2112096113821.0456771544150.813302709823571643131212WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:04FORECAST20256714739.9235.54637.73363.6305844588790.6704728031.0704728036.237.300472803TT7.9239.9226335.7759126480621.365617569010.806053086900261643141216WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20256714738.55233.74636.14965.0207329884810.5996066231.0696066236.237.299606623TT6.55241.55226336.6998347073321.8924700497710.760352017767641643141216WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20256714738.28233.69235.98769.3915420790671.007874561.937874566.238.16787456TT6.28234.28226339.5836038792523.5642299379480.750685384658721643151220WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20256714738.17433.94436.05967.7990353334670.9641737491.5541737496.237.784173749TT6.17433.17426338.5366064392622.9524553416470.746761562812551643151220WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20256714737.45434.53835.99667.9413787575421.0767722351.6667722356.237.896772235TT5.45432.45426338.6303629200423.0070137459540.719797293461681643151220WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20256714738.6633.99836.32966.1982897343121.3685046761.5285046766.237.758504676TT6.6633.6626337.4799156792722.3405932376470.764160703156391643151220WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20256714738.37233.58435.97866.7821136275381.3692920781.5292920786.237.759292078TT6.37232.37226337.8658097324122.563392896410.753930414413011643151220WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20256714738.37233.58435.97866.8717303272681.3692920781.5292920786.237.759292078TT6.37232.37226337.9249936473622.597629046030.753930414413011643151220WETL
2024-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20256714741.86437.20239.53368.4146322237640.4598427681.5598427686.237.789842768TT9.86436.86426338.9418343245423.1885809405610.861088390924731653151222.5WETL
2024-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20256714746.52637.5842.05367.5142529999210.4614175721.5614175726.237.791417572TT14.52650.52626338.3489288037622.843375181510.947148715419391653151222.5WETL
2024-11-28 15:00:03FORECAST20256714748.88439.05643.9767.0344818797040.2933072451.3833072456.237.613307245TT16.88449.88426338.0324422299322.6598296234140.970469512266911653141218WETL
2024-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20256714747.19237.54442.36867.1984961539960.0578740470.6278740476.236.857874047TT15.19248.19226338.1406795345422.7225451532120.954868581169061653131213.5WETL
2024-11-28 07:00:03FORECAST20256714744.56435.67240.11867.6525254138410.0744094891.0744094896.237.304409489TT12.56444.56426338.4400702308522.8963254523550.91826807940961653141218WETL
2024-11-28 03:00:04FORECAST20256714743.735.8739.78568.0896835935660.1370079481.8570079486.238.087007948TT11.733.726338.7280099175223.0638830195620.902308808566111653151222.5WETL
2024-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20256714744.54637.56241.05466.9387960.7035436874.7235436876.210.923543687TT12.54639.54626337.9692757882722.6232564062590.917956899472351653151222.5WETL
2024-11-27 19:00:02FORECAST20256714739.68636.03237.85967.7683635266240.8358272234.9558272236.211.155827223TT7.68629.68626338.5163995866122.940702426910.798634841329421643151220WETL
2024-11-27 15:00:02FORECAST20256714738.94834.41236.6869.6222898837220.9366146793.3966146796.199.586614679TT6.94823.94826339.7349586113923.6531257720760.774152422114331643151220WETL
2024-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20256714741.25235.3338.29168.3500935860570.3968506081.4068506086.27.606850608TT9.25225.25226338.8993803145623.1638043607570.845039876290711643141216WETL
2024-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20256714741.9935.638.79568.4453525390010.2826773181.4126773186.27.612677318TT9.9926.9926338.9620399384823.2003763209280.864247097254551653141218WETL
2024-11-27 03:00:04FORECAST20256714742.51233.99838.25567.8273615026030.0543307380.5843307386.26.784330738TT10.51229.51226338.555266567222.9633104540640.876808503008421653131213.5WETL
2024-11-26 23:00:03FORECAST20256714743.5240.47841.99969.13197124015300.925.936.85TT11.5242.5226339.4132371579223.4643061497290.898714987534841653131213.5WETL
2024-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20256714743.7933.29638.54369.57358268595800.245.926.16TF11.7936.7926339.7030174164623.6343559708930.90407037362907165312129WETL
2024-11-26 15:00:03FORECAST20256714741.86433.33237.59870.33841523948500.265.936.19TF9.86429.86426340.204123258123.9294188879130.86108839092473165312129WETL
2024-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20256714735.31234.44834.8874.2452860771140.0476378212.8376378215.968.797637821TT3.31216.31226342.7487094818925.4474759880450.632329996059641633151217.5WETL
2024-11-26 07:00:04FORECAST20256714734.9731.80233.38672.50193757879202.525.938.45TT2.9717.9726341.6163675147924.7678485534510.617545575303931633151217.5WETL
2024-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20256714734.734.21434.45772.21324093694402.525.948.46TT2.719.726341.4283685052624.6556490375780.605750217737041633151217.5WETL