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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 5, 2024

[ Wednesday, December 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, December 6, 2024 ]

DAY 66 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.62°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.926
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 94

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.27 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.27 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 60 in
SWE DAY: 27
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 334.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 146

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-06 07:00:03OBSERVATION20256614647.1099236.1299241.6199260.011362916667007.277.27TT15.1099294.1099227334.35850543731 20.0653096140720.926454075380516 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-06 03:00:03OBSERVATION20256614647.1099236.1299241.6199260.011362916667007.277.27TT15.1099294.1099227334.35850543731 20.0653096140720.926454075380516 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-05 11:00:01FORECAST20256614638.55230.81234.68260.760164874146007.277.27TT6.55285.55227334.8592736495520.3461046765830.69702866492116163311123.5WETL
2024-12-05 07:00:02FORECAST20256614638.69631.69435.19560.927873604456007.277.27TT6.69685.69627334.9712999220120.4090890227680.70249036004032164311124WETL
2024-12-05 03:00:07FORECAST20256614638.40831.80235.10560.92783562577007.277.27TT6.40885.40827334.9712745583620.4090747556460.69152258889444163311123.5WETL
2024-12-04 23:00:02FORECAST20256614639.66832.01835.84361.662196191184007.277.27TT7.66875.66827335.4612520429120.6852775380110.73812497850043164311124WETL
2024-12-04 19:00:01FORECAST20256614639.6531.65835.65461.646144871311007.277.27TT7.6575.6527335.4505521045420.6792333321980.73748548670193164311124WETL
2024-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20256614639.32632.12635.72661.6335584007.277.27TT7.32675.32627335.442161556820.6744940541330.72583974435449164311124WETL
2024-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20256614637.9432.19835.06960.7717427201090.0244094620.0244094627.277.294409462TT5.9473.9427334.8670089661420.3504517143420.67333367870317163311123.5WETL
2024-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20256614637.86832.2735.06960.586640625530.0318897810.0318897817.277.301889781TT5.86872.86827334.7433124776220.2809727748810.67049703101898163311123.5WETL
2024-12-04 03:00:03FORECAST20256614638.4831.6435.0660.5705819736620.0161417410.0161417417.277.286141741TT6.4873.4827334.7325783669620.2749470772310.6942811124219163311123.5WETL
2024-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20256614638.46231.1934.82661.754275454262007.277.27TT6.46257.46227335.5226243886620.7199565676340.69359250516319163311123.5WETL
2024-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20256614638.06631.29834.68261.814938956553007.277.27TT6.06657.06627335.5630497696420.7428094375850.67827371948335163311123.5WETL
2024-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20256614638.4830.07434.27761.8726004436360.0125984320.0125984327.277.282598432TT6.4857.4827335.6014688723520.7645355918360.6942811124219163311123.5WETL
2024-12-03 11:00:01FORECAST20256614639.57830.36234.9761.2329813457440.0271653690.0271653697.277.297165369TT7.57859.57827335.1749838047620.5237635308770.73491956090679164311124WETL
2024-12-03 07:00:03FORECAST20256614638.73231.02834.8860.801221842975007.277.27TT6.73258.73227334.8867033427320.3615207422030.70384873440694164311124WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:02FORECAST20256614638.1230.88434.50260.7506027846520.0208661530.0208661537.277.290866153TT6.1258.1227334.8528849157920.3425146028140.68038134251611163311123.5WETL
2024-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20256614638.40830.66834.53861.5836733636220.1381890510.1381890517.277.408189051TT6.40851.40827335.4089039440520.6557123837410.69152258889444163312127WETL
2024-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20256614638.5731.89235.23161.7085408856960.2858269260.2858269267.277.555826926TT6.5750.5727335.4921433394420.7027306440910.69771382417239163312127WETL
2024-12-02 15:00:01FORECAST20256614637.61631.65834.63762.1208988992230.3338584480.3338584487.277.603858448TT5.61649.61627335.7668426513220.8581380860540.66049222302914163312127WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20256614636.80632.16234.48463.4708270073310.8047248440.8047248447.278.074724844TT4.80646.80627336.6641102185421.3683494992580.627591898849431633131210.5WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:03FORECAST20256614636.46432.0934.27763.9823651612050.8145673690.8145673697.278.084567369TT4.46445.46427337.0033154019521.5622691865840.613399280150981633131210.5WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:03FORECAST20256614637.74232.9935.36662.309102083960.8393705320.8393705327.278.109370532TT5.74246.74227335.8921218143520.9291365073280.665509309899091633131210.5WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20256614637.90432.7235.31263.0542689383360.185039470.185039477.277.45503947TT5.90435.90427336.3875613508221.2106717609260.67191659340196163312127WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:01FORECAST20256614637.50832.75635.13263.2368393450790.2956694510.2956694517.277.565669451TT5.50835.50827336.5088040947921.2797531827470.6561690794668163312127WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:01FORECAST20256614637.9434.03435.98762.8142500087340.2574804540.2574804547.277.527480454TT5.9437.9427336.2280821862521.1199148144040.67333367870317163312127WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20256614636.28433.60234.94362.4315219767610.5464569880.5464569887.277.816456988TT4.28436.28427335.9735795891520.9753419177310.605866752697161633131210.5WETL
2024-12-01 07:00:03FORECAST20256614636.15833.51234.83562.6728958127610.4622049740.4622049747.277.732204974TT4.15835.15827336.1341147224221.0664983511130.60057014260905163312127WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20256614636.17633.18834.68261.5098340296760.4622049740.4622049747.277.732204974TT4.17635.17627335.3596686211420.6279175571340.60132796003962163312127WETL
2024-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST20256614637.25632.86435.0662.9891909982250.3984254120.3984254127.277.668425412TT5.25633.25627336.3443303032321.186057262640.64600288215557163312127WETL
2024-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20256614636.75232.07234.41263.0772335520780.3669293320.3669293327.277.636929332TT4.75230.75227336.4028149575921.2193589266560.62536188662926163312127WETL
2024-11-30 15:00:01FORECAST20256614636.75231.38834.0763.4168575901220.3125985940.3125985947.277.582598594TT4.75227.75227336.6282969421521.3479087679850.62536188662926163312127WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20256614635.90631.02833.46763.5644326655320.216535550.216535557.277.48653555TT3.90620.90627336.7262138552321.403810747320.58992214902591163312127WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:04FORECAST20256614635.76231.02833.39564.3969236588790.4043309270.4043309277.277.674330927TT3.76222.76227337.2778894378321.7196584979560.58380713841256163312127WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:03FORECAST20256614635.72630.9233.32365.5987345884810.4653545820.4653545827.277.735354582TT3.72625.72627338.0722513789122.1771118899350.58227514951046163312127WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20256614634.26831.3732.81969.6402814331310.9346461740.9346461747.278.204646174TT2.26819.26827340.7258769251623.7282459606180.519434980656821633131210.5WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20256614634.23231.31632.77468.3645401334670.5862207890.5862207897.277.856220789TT2.23218.23227339.8911826599823.236504397970.517870656354991633131210.5WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20256614634.2530.86632.55868.4601435575420.5929137060.5929137067.277.862913706TT2.2518.2527339.9538280305123.2732878699040.51865285440791633131210.5WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20256614635.45631.98233.71966.8349377343120.1629922140.1629922147.277.432992214TT3.45618.45627338.8868195513122.649479483690.57074697294815163312127WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20256614634.86231.20833.03567.3999672275380.1629922140.1629922147.277.432992214TT2.86216.86227339.2582821493122.8659970985340.54518524705113163312127WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20256614634.8831.20833.04467.4895839272680.1629922140.1629922147.277.432992214TT2.8816.8827339.3171491368222.900373214630.5459631508773163312127WETL
2024-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20256614640.35234.64637.49969.3370338237640.8960634761.0960634767.278.366063476TT8.35218.35227340.5277125244423.6111815212360.761821143857361643141216WETL
2024-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20256614641.75635.07838.41768.7976841999210.9011815891.1011815897.278.371181589TT9.75626.75627340.1748842394723.4032442586510.806567332231921643141216WETL
2024-11-28 15:00:03FORECAST20256614643.37636.06839.72268.5347866797040.8877957551.0877957557.278.357795755TT11.37624.37627340.0027283201423.3020144559380.851311779377721653141218WETL
2024-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20256614645.35638.5741.96368.4689385539960.1704725330.5704725337.277.840472533TT13.35624.35627339.9595903007423.2766722991430.895847651007211653131213.5WETL
2024-11-28 07:00:03FORECAST20256614643.46637.8540.65868.6942862138410.4905514461.0005514467.278.270551446TT11.46623.46627340.1071887752523.3634205691120.85357690237041653141218WETL
2024-11-28 03:00:04FORECAST20256614642.74636.66239.70469.0283211935661.0303155171.7203155177.278.990315517TT10.74612.74627340.3258200272523.4921200153050.834804628720361643151220WETL
2024-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20256614642.83636.24839.54268.12540162.6744108934.0344108937.2311.264410893TT10.83617.83627339.7344174347623.1445436250850.837232610123871643151220WETL
2024-11-27 19:00:02FORECAST20256614640.5536.42838.48968.5891179266242.7031510664.1331510667.2311.363151066TT8.5512.5527340.0383160405923.3229281584790.768454930061421643151220WETL
2024-11-27 15:00:02FORECAST20256614639.70435.83437.76969.1238538195061.5307094882.4607094887.239.690709488TT7.7047.70427340.3883135588123.5289520283070.73940156426421643151220WETL
2024-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20256614639.41635.27637.34669.1635596359630.8114177611.0214177617.238.251417761TT7.4167.41627340.414283017123.5442635643870.729100078595281643141216WETL
2024-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20256614639.57835.31237.44569.3470901390010.3397639631.1397639637.238.369763963TT7.5787.57827340.534286511323.615061862120.734919560906791643141216WETL
2024-11-27 03:00:04FORECAST20256614642.24237.00439.62368.7896230313750.1519685860.5419685867.237.771968586TT10.24210.24227340.1696071688223.4001390438740.820778643348581643131212WETL
2024-11-26 23:00:03FORECAST20256614646.65238.37242.51269.5904168401530.1972442010.9572442016.937.887244201TT14.65221.65227340.6933021995623.7089889147160.919217900465461653131213.5WETL
2024-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20256614645.8637.79641.82869.94130348595800.276.937.2TT13.8615.8627340.9224360808623.8445595671040.90545784434435165312129WETL
2024-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20256614645.48234.5240.00170.65162243948500.296.947.23TT13.48211.48227341.38565960624.1194507287370.89831389708201165312129WETL
2024-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20256614643.12430.75836.94174.0350383837591.7822844272.8322844276.969.792284427TT11.1244.12427343.5806668475725.4370078579770.844845754428141643151220WETL
2024-11-26 07:00:04FORECAST20256614644.22230.12837.17572.5508423787921.4988197072.5588197076.939.488819707TT12.2226.22227342.62010966824.8573775723270.871690281503461653151222.5WETL
2024-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20256614645.44630.12837.78772.2401041369441.4988197072.5588197076.949.498819707TT13.4468.44627342.4185440633824.7363512815590.897613620475241653151222.5WETL
2024-11-25 23:00:03FORECAST20256614639.97433.67436.82470.6756133865760.7641736413.2241736417.3710.594173641TT7.974-16.02627341.4012903455524.128745606140.748872962702321643151220WETL
2024-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20256614639.84830.61435.23169.1714648112490.468504192.568504197.419.97850419TT7.848-16.15227340.419453058323.5473122182870.744475725776581643151220WETL
2024-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20256614643.91630.61437.26569.3536410270170.8078744523.8878744527.4211.307874452TT11.916-11.08427340.5385688495523.6175896598460.864554787113751653151222.5WETL
2024-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20256614641.86436.15839.01165.83344556920400.576.947.51TT9.8645.86427338.2271056561822.2666557502450.809783268592251643131212WETL
2024-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20256614643.41237.68840.5567.28221378245900.537.147.67TT11.4128.41227339.1809124580622.8208426629330.852220616227261653131213.5WETL
2024-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20256614642.99842.90842.95367.098623346982007.017.01TT10.99811.99827339.0602385150622.750475236060.84154433243025164311124WETL