MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 4, 2024

[ Tuesday, December 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 5, 2024 ]

DAY 65 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/05/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.997
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 80

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 61 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-05 07:00:02OBSERVATION20256514555.9299242.4299249.1799261.199024583333008.598.59TT23.9299279.9299228336.14886928445 20.5719829149990.9973178646953216 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-05 03:00:06OBSERVATION20256514555.9299242.4299249.1799261.199024583333008.598.59TT23.9299279.9299228336.14886928445 20.5719829149990.9973178646953216 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-04 11:00:01FORECAST20256514544.7835.7840.2861.108496008.598.59TT12.7868.7828336.0886746280820.5378734291550.91772198463987165311124.5WETL
2024-12-04 07:00:03FORECAST20256514544.43836.42840.43360.9268769008.598.59TT12.43868.43828335.9678699251620.4694730532850.91105470678285165311124.5WETL
2024-12-04 03:00:03FORECAST20256514544.22236.12240.17260.9281561008.598.59TT12.22268.22228335.9687209852720.4699546769080.90664208449818165311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20256514545.24835.43840.34362.0945232008.598.59TT13.24852.24828336.743563042520.9099309877930.92622828850057165311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 19:00:01FORECAST20256514544.94234.8839.91162.1140064008.598.59TT12.94251.94228336.7564866569720.9172945674530.92074606536964165311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20256514544.83434.73639.78562.1228624008.598.59TT12.83451.83428336.7623608157720.9206418024570.91873948727211165311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 11:00:01FORECAST20256514545.53635.0640.29861.5703464008.598.59TT13.53652.53628336.3956254208720.7119951846070.93111954659336165311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 07:00:02FORECAST20256514545.80635.31240.55961.107706916667008.598.59TT13.80652.80628336.0881498865320.5375761614310.93547512427318165311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:02FORECAST20256514545.84236.3241.08161.040893316667008.598.59TT13.84252.84228336.0437149319220.5124085528960.93603938736224165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20256514545.53635.04240.28961.480704008.598.59TT13.53645.53628336.3360762671420.6781787495020.93111954659336165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20256514545.0535.94240.49661.315884008.598.59TT13.0545.0528336.2265514894520.6160282288470.92271503036593165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 15:00:01FORECAST20256514544.99635.8740.43361.3107672008.598.59TT12.99644.99628336.2231505833720.6140993126670.92173522755376165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20256514543.9735.20439.58761.106312380924008.598.59TT11.9742.9728336.0872225156920.5370508062810.90129276318353165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:03FORECAST20256514543.80835.20439.50661.580982696228008.598.59TT11.80841.80828336.4026901779420.7160082428120.89773785185777165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:03FORECAST20256514544.2435.09639.66861.522471664209008.598.59TT12.2442.2428336.3638240771420.6939338356510.9070158473147165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:01FORECAST20256514544.47436.1440.30762.9162816008.598.59TT12.47431.47428337.2880975897821.2209129282870.91177484465479165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:01FORECAST20256514544.36636.33840.35262.8782008008.598.59TT12.36631.36628337.262888623921.2064836332820.9096013633527165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:01FORECAST20256514545.26634.7940.02862.7416216008.598.59TT13.26633.26628337.1724550138621.1547465864230.92654154265978165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20256514544.70835.43840.07362.1604712008.598.59TT12.70832.70828336.7873051503720.9348575823250.9163504783673165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 07:00:03FORECAST20256514544.65435.72640.1961.786373466667008.598.59TT12.65431.65428336.5390757993520.7935290234650.9153106669531165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20256514544.74435.81640.2861.663078266667008.598.59TT12.74431.74428336.4572126310320.7469874358520.91703835617353165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST20256514545.55435.72640.6463.0897216008.598.59TT13.55428.55428337.4028816465921.2866538701210.93141677204446165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20256514544.81634.9739.89363.206424008.598.59TT12.81626.81628337.4800878259621.3309095226850.91840137630122165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 15:00:01FORECAST20256514544.11434.4339.27263.4894224008.598.59TT12.11424.11428337.6672145459921.4382964149420.90437625443057165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20256514542.99835.54639.27263.4692504008.598.59TT10.99817.99828337.653880688421.4306387019440.87856839866979165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:03FORECAST20256514542.76435.47439.11963.867616116667008.598.59TT10.76419.76428337.9170772632121.5819581699130.87258926138312165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:03FORECAST20256514543.86235.97839.9263.785845716667008.598.59TT11.86222.86228337.8630740299921.5508819134350.89893299102644165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20256514542.00832.79237.466.550824008.598.59TT10.00818.00828339.6829270861722.6061786963160.85189115997857165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20256514542.2632.91837.58966.5018208008.598.59TT10.2617.2628339.6507852902122.5873956579490.85902629038053165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20256514540.92832.61236.7766.6279696008.598.59TT8.92816.92828339.7335197191922.6357546239510.81862556104209164311124WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20256514541.2733.837.53566.6297408008.598.59TT9.2716.2728339.7346811683322.6364337470160.82963079069356164311124WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20256514541.01833.78237.467.135700733333008.598.59TT9.01815.01828340.0662461903122.8305857337410.8215638530471164311124WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20256514540.98233.83637.40967.213997792614008.598.59TT8.98214.98228340.117517658622.8606580811350.82039214482132164311124WETL
2024-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20256514541.25234.41237.83270.0278018237640.2035434170.2035434178.598.793543417TT9.25211.25228341.9533369322123.9462405116630.82906242869817164312128WETL
2024-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20256514542.27835.22238.7569.6492377999210.2023623140.2023623148.598.792362314TT10.27818.27828341.7071123876623.7996399286120.85952689215926165312129WETL
2024-11-28 15:00:03FORECAST20256514542.69235.34839.0269.5810738797040.200787510.200787518.598.79078751TT10.69213.69228341.6627522442523.773261205850.8707091345151165312129WETL
2024-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20256514544.79835.20440.00169.6959865539960.3992128140.3992128148.598.989212814TT12.79811.79828341.7375313952923.8177343931220.91806220928417165312129WETL
2024-11-28 07:00:03FORECAST20256514544.1535.3339.7469.8163414138410.5137798050.5137798058.599.103779805TT12.1513.1528341.8158286378323.8643305928340.905135969367081653131213.5WETL
2024-11-28 03:00:04FORECAST20256514541.91834.2538.08470.0404635935660.6905515540.6905515548.599.280551554TT9.9182.91828341.9615682736823.9511467730710.849285485909141653131213.5WETL
2024-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20256514542.76436.75239.75869.09798721.3511818321.3611818328.559.911181832TT10.7647.76428341.3481458712623.5864698141560.872589261383121653141218WETL
2024-11-27 19:00:02FORECAST20256514540.136.60838.35469.4333899266241.4157487961.4257487968.559.975748796TT8.15.128341.5666152046723.7161279794230.79019448737041643141216WETL
2024-11-27 15:00:02FORECAST20256514538.91236.33837.62569.8871426195060.9279532570.9279532578.559.477953257TT6.9120.91228341.8618774100523.8917497827280.745141889216631643131212WETL
2024-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20256514540.17234.84437.50869.8013884359630.1960630980.2060630988.558.756063098TT8.1721.17228341.8061022319223.8585405116720.79276589129022164312128WETL
2024-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20256514540.24434.91637.5870.0073541390010.7850397940.7950397948.559.345039794TT8.2441.24428341.9400434546323.9383177164330.795318600204521643131212WETL
2024-11-27 03:00:04FORECAST20256514542.78237.9440.36169.7698838313750.3795277640.3895277648.558.939527764TT10.7820.78228341.78560834423.8463421893970.87305631599416165312129WETL
2024-11-26 23:00:03FORECAST20256514544.52839.43441.98170.9875984401530.724409840.764409848.259.01440984TT12.5287.52828342.5765450917524.3186862179880.912846917052291653131213.5WETL
2024-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20256514544.25839.07441.66671.2227666859580.2437009190.2737009198.258.523700919TT12.2583.25828342.7290112323924.4101084035140.90738850649446165312129WETL
2024-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20256514542.0836.08639.08371.6775408394850.2629922680.2929922688.268.552992268TT10.08-0.9228343.0235957913124.5870877962390.85395392669632165312129WETL
2024-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20256514540.85635.97838.41773.448317914361.0129926731.0529926738.289.332992673TT8.856-6.14428344.1673979867925.2785164630920.816253296848891643141216WETL
2024-11-26 07:00:04FORECAST20256514541.5436.75239.14673.3585095787921.0228351981.0628351988.259.312835198TT9.54-5.4628344.1095116359525.2433609054990.838011028206481643141216WETL
2024-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20256514542.0837.9440.0173.1926161369441.0228351981.0628351988.269.322835198TT10.08-3.9228344.002549571125.1784465608880.853953926696321653141218WETL
2024-11-25 23:00:02FORECAST20256514541.41437.14839.28169.4057739976882.2346468762.8046468768.3511.154646876TT9.414-22.58628341.5486342073223.7054473150120.83413414552181643151220WETL
2024-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20256514541.30637.90439.60569.3876496112491.8803159762.4503159768.3810.830315976TT9.306-22.69428341.5368325591823.6984380669520.830763887685051643151220WETL
2024-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20256514544.20436.33840.27169.6835762270172.7129935913.4429935918.3811.822993591TT12.204-21.79628341.7294564556423.8129306279430.906267216664811653151222.5WETL
2024-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20256514542.31433.99838.15666.1469479692040.5059057850.5659057858.268.825905785TT10.314-2.68628339.4179004475822.4514582007220.860524481660381653131213.5WETL
2024-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20256514543.55638.82241.18967.6905737824590.3318899430.7018899438.298.991889943TT11.556-2.44428340.4293753400823.0438597491740.892024986165531653131213.5WETL
2024-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20256514549.26237.79643.52967.21837614698200.058.288.33TT17.2622.26228340.1203844468322.8623399370030.97438109855946165311124.5WETL
2024-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20256514540.89235.2438.06661.450343186316008.418.41TT8.892-13.10828336.3159046037420.6667277569160.81744182994975164311124WETL
2024-11-24 19:00:03FORECAST20256514538.67832.0935.38462.415607842685008.448.44TT6.678-21.32228336.9564636505821.0313424952730.73570735829162164311124WETL
2024-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20256514538.26432.3635.31262.486605475896008.468.46TT6.264-22.73628337.003516396521.0582057730580.71859133695642164311124WETL
2024-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20256514539.16437.07638.1266.89771452906008.338.33TT7.164-6.83628339.9103424482622.7392250545790.75510174423182164311124WETL
2024-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20256514540.13630.0235.07868.3185947159810.1818898620.1818898628.448.621889862TT8.1361.13628340.8397581700323.2856933015110.79148252189705164312128WETL
2024-11-24 03:00:04FORECAST20256514539.57838.6639.11965.062925568839008.288.28TT7.57814.57828338.7052107514522.03715191690.77099969402946164311124WETL