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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 3, 2024

[ Monday, December 2, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 4, 2024 ]

DAY 64 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/04/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 1.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 56

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.94 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 62 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.55 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 144

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-04 07:00:02OBSERVATION20256414460.0400440.1700250.1050361.8207425009.949.94TT28.0400456.0400429337.55309125929 20.8677827348190.9995554428675316 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-04 03:00:02OBSERVATION20256414460.0400440.1700250.1050361.8207425009.949.94TT28.0400456.0400429337.55309125929 20.8677827348190.9995554428675316 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 11:00:01FORECAST20256414442.58431.74837.16662.4542736009.949.94TT10.58438.58429337.9716965388721.1077768046950.86873590598617165311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 07:00:02FORECAST20256414442.65630.95636.80662.044671716667009.949.94TT10.65638.65629337.7011293242520.9525557072710.87065368375286165311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:02FORECAST20256414443.19631.98237.58961.994389316667009.949.94TT11.19639.19629337.6678953058320.9335149613290.88442037968949165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20256414443.9731.76637.86862.3590224009.949.94TT11.9731.9729337.9088023845721.0716625770570.90229153545703165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20256414443.89831.92837.91362.2823688009.949.94TT11.89831.89829337.8581771327421.0426075902770.90071966079995165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 15:00:01FORECAST20256414443.84432.48638.16562.2682976009.949.94TT11.84431.84429337.8488828513921.0372747812180.89952871827511165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20256414443.3043237.65261.9440696009.949.94TT11.30431.30429337.634632373520.9144631671150.88704431603287165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:02FORECAST20256414443.2531.65837.45462.397940916667009.949.94TT11.2530.2529337.9345020325721.0864170915310.88573769457291165311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:03FORECAST20256414443.1631.38837.27462.375308916667009.949.94TT11.1630.1629337.9195574135921.0778367826560.88353621593354165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:01FORECAST20256414443.71832.70238.2163.83642009.949.94TT11.71818.71829338.8826144264921.6330529052280.89670952114935165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:01FORECAST20256414443.6133.3538.4863.7881056009.949.94TT11.6118.6129338.8508262313121.614652286290.89424786761335165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:01FORECAST20256414444.43832.938.66963.6884264009.949.94TT12.43820.43829338.7852305191521.5766982193260.91206748107507165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:01FORECAST20256414444.4233.0838.7563.0917288009.949.94TT12.4220.4229338.3922153360121.3497498780110.91170545409548165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 07:00:03FORECAST20256414444.38433.11638.7562.711825466667009.949.94TT12.38419.38429338.1416812825321.2054820995950.91097808083537165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20256414444.43834.23239.33562.585086266667009.949.94TT12.43819.43829338.0580470553621.15739203810.91206748107507165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST20256414444.632.95438.77764.056108009.949.94TT12.614.629339.0271077575221.7167570294430.91527620895393165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20256414443.732.64838.17464.10088009.949.94TT11.713.729339.0565453367721.7338229258470.89630215105225165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 15:00:01FORECAST20256414442.54832.50437.52664.2815424009.949.94TT10.54811.54829339.1752968187521.8027112234870.86776971131027165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20256414441.61232.16236.88764.3005336009.949.94TT9.6126.61229339.187776788921.8099550381240.84092629386514164311124WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:03FORECAST20256414442.22432.73837.48164.685812116667009.949.94TT10.2249.22429339.4408306529821.9570057963440.85885396810731165311124.5WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:03FORECAST20256414443.01632.77437.89564.653044916667009.949.94TT11.01611.01629339.4193185402121.9444924471650.87995176727304165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20256414442.72833.04437.88667.1738928009.949.94TT10.7287.72829341.0690710753822.9109372178130.87255201373256165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20256414443.05233.22438.13867.124988009.949.94TT11.0527.05229341.0371660201822.8921156766590.88085506310369165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:01FORECAST20256414442.54832.97237.7667.2035112009.949.94TT10.5487.54829341.0883919284222.9223375671510.86776971131027165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20256414442.33232.79237.56267.2968928009.949.94TT10.3327.33229341.1492976613422.9582877135110.86186996775844165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20256414442.47632.0937.28367.769298333333009.949.94TT10.4766.47629341.4571906517323.1403142213390.86582268613471165311124.5WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20256414441.931.83836.86967.850547392614009.949.94TT9.95.929341.5101079632323.1716477654160.84954039356371165311124.5WETL
2024-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20256414443.84431.06437.45470.666947621834009.949.94TT11.8441.84429343.3376884665324.2626264474660.89952871827511165311124.5WETL
2024-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20256414443.95231.6437.79670.438392009.949.94TT11.9527.95229343.1898641779624.1737421833940.90190028237287165311124.5WETL
2024-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20256414443.98833.4438.71470.406412009.949.94TT11.9882.98829343.1691734370624.1613102107090.90268164702737165311124.5WETL
2024-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20256414441.6333.38637.50870.6180704009.949.94TT9.63-1.3729343.3060830663324.2436131427260.8414739340258164311124WETL
2024-11-28 07:00:03FORECAST20256414441.8133.3537.5870.724058483333009.949.94TT9.810.8129343.3746130015124.2848462116110.84688243025907164311124WETL
2024-11-28 03:00:04FORECAST20256414441.05432.75636.90570.768928883333009.949.94TT9.054-6.94629343.4036198145724.3023063489360.82333759477498164311124WETL
2024-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20256414444.47433.90839.19170.1323680.0082677210.0082677219.99.908267721TT12.474-2.52629342.991800777424.0548271931030.91278822330328165311124.5WETL
2024-11-27 19:00:02FORECAST20256414443.80833.85438.83170.2550299266240.0082677210.0082677219.99.908267721TT11.808-3.19229343.0712079349624.1024779804340.89872900552397165311124.5WETL
2024-11-27 15:00:02FORECAST20256414442.29632.6337.46370.486104293378009.99.9TT10.296-5.70429343.220730431624.1922922008510.86086954173869165311124.5WETL
2024-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20256414441.32435.34838.33670.5124546957240.0082677210.0082677219.99.908267721TT9.324-6.67629343.2377755502824.202538098350.83199617454359164311124WETL
2024-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20256414441.43235.27638.35470.7217381390010.0082677210.0082677219.99.908267721TT9.432-6.56829343.3731129072824.2839433750030.83538199050908164311124WETL
2024-11-27 03:00:04FORECAST20256414440.76634.10637.43670.8327022313750.0090551230.0090551239.99.909055123TT8.766-10.23429343.4448408949124.3271261480110.81379731565971164311124WETL
2024-11-26 23:00:03FORECAST20256414444.40234.6139.50672.2790000401530.0377952960.0377952969.69.637795296TT12.402-4.59829344.3778915849324.8912896396950.9113423211847165311124.5WETL
2024-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20256414443.89834.28639.09272.4679202859580.0299212760.0299212769.69.629921276TT11.898-9.10229344.4995168671624.965163526880.90071966079995165311124.5WETL
2024-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20256414443.66433.51238.58872.6425496394850.0303149770.0303149779.619.640314977TT11.664-11.33629344.6118898961925.0334863181410.89548392786334165311124.5WETL
2024-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20256414441.8133.24237.52674.277829914360.0385826980.0385826989.639.668582698TT9.81-15.1929345.6617685004325.6750060485720.84688243025907164311124WETL
2024-11-26 07:00:04FORECAST20256414442.04433.56637.80574.2619199787920.0385826980.0385826989.69.638582698TT10.044-14.95629345.6515750356825.6687496058430.85372901106838165311124.5WETL
2024-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20256414442.0833.74637.91374.2444137369440.0385826980.0385826989.619.648582698TT10.08-13.9229345.6403583445925.6618657691220.85476384497888165311124.5WETL
2024-11-25 23:00:02FORECAST20256414440.29830.59635.44770.3613363976880.2255906730.5655906739.710.265590673TT8.298-31.70229343.1400071180324.1437894723370.797629897146111643131212WETL
2024-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20256414440.74832.07236.4170.3992016112490.2220473640.5720473649.7310.302047364TT8.748-32.25229343.1645081552924.1585073954490.813190656412441643131212WETL
2024-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20256414438.91231.67635.29470.6781050270170.370078940.730078949.7310.46007894TT6.912-34.08829343.3449026116424.2669670872760.745085269557171643131212WETL
2024-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20256414442.06233.47637.76967.0842079692040.0618110570.0618110579.619.671811057TT10.062-12.93829341.0105584615122.8764232235270.85424704365329165311124.5WETL
2024-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20256414441.10834.32237.71568.9460593824590.1956693970.3656693979.6410.005669397TT9.108-13.89229342.222546917123.5948960417630.82509145554013164312128WETL
2024-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20256414444.61835.18639.90268.74790574698200.059.639.68TT12.618-15.38229342.0938294486423.5182343435590.91562726096534165311124.5WETL
2024-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20256414443.1633.31438.23761.71720398631600.019.759.76TT11.16-21.8429337.4846141881520.8286067760930.88353621593354165311124.5WETL
2024-11-24 19:00:02FORECAST20256414442.22431.8237.02262.56940704268500.019.789.79TT10.224-27.77629338.0476985840421.1514440525480.85885396810731165311124.5WETL
2024-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20256414438.28230.48834.38562.668842275896009.819.81TT6.282-28.71829338.1133200212821.1891703237930.71903790152044164311124WETL
2024-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20256414440.4633.15236.80667.14991372906009.689.68TT8.46-13.5429341.0534278386522.9017082563650.80331879794751164311124WETL
2024-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20256414441.73833.92637.83266.796887481441009.799.79TT9.738-7.26229340.823013652222.7659164940120.84473384625902164311124WETL
2024-11-24 03:00:04FORECAST20256414447.331.85639.57865.140759968839009.639.63TT15.37.329339.7393251821522.1308778336660.95673784796658165311124.5WETL
2024-11-23 23:00:03FORECAST20256414437.5834.30435.94269.9653522370510.0043307111.1143307119.4510.564330711TT5.58-1.4229342.8836406712523.9899746958860.68858065822331633141214WETL
2024-11-23 19:00:03FORECAST20256414441.3635.7838.5765.8010074970520.003937011.053937019.5110.56393701TT9.365.3629340.1719052226622.3836540858430.833129713366461643141216WETL
2024-11-23 15:00:02FORECAST20256414445.537.92241.71177.0747971481240.0106299271.9406299279.4611.400629927TT13.5-5.529347.4473934397626.7794373690140.93152724966181653151222.5WETL
2024-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20256414438.10234.0736.08670.05302939933400.639.269.89TT6.102-24.89829342.9404264891424.0240157790640.711366646450521643131212WETL
2024-11-23 07:00:05FORECAST20256414441.1836.62638.90369.39284362851300.639.289.91TT9.18-23.8229342.5125332946623.7679186637220.827412725308831643131212WETL
2024-11-23 03:00:04FORECAST20256414437.1337.05837.09465.57594145468200.138.949.07TT5.13-0.8729340.0245282619122.2974285584590.66833624577971163312127WETL