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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 2, 2024

[ Sunday, December 1, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 3, 2024 ]

DAY 63 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/03/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.974
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 25

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 63 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 143

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-03 07:00:02OBSERVATION20256314350.4399237.5699244.0049262.6097829166670010.2110.21TT18.4399225.4399230339.05981021437 21.2284611132880.9743607042027116 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-03 03:00:02OBSERVATION20256314350.4399237.5699244.0049262.6097829166670010.2110.21TT18.4399225.4399230339.05981021437 21.2284611132880.9743607042027116 5311124.5WETL
2024-12-02 11:00:01FORECAST20256314341.61229.6635.63662.60207040010.2110.21TT9.61216.61230339.0547395391321.2255286740820.81196757980002164311124WETL
2024-12-02 07:00:02FORECAST20256314341.37828.90435.14163.0475777166670010.2110.21TT9.37816.37830339.3474802187421.3950366320460.80428451240708164311124WETL
2024-12-02 03:00:03FORECAST20256314341.37828.70635.04263.0442321166670010.2110.21TT9.37816.37830339.3452830755921.3937627939140.80428451240708164311124WETL
2024-12-01 23:00:01FORECAST20256314341.8129.78635.79864.55936480010.2110.21TT9.813.8130340.3384024144521.9720310769240.81832136218602164311124WETL
2024-12-01 19:00:01FORECAST20256314341.68430.00235.84364.559660010.2110.21TT9.6843.68430340.3385955361321.972144012690.81429371269101164311124WETL
2024-12-01 15:00:01FORECAST20256314342.85430.57836.71664.47690560010.2110.21TT10.8544.85430340.2844514235821.9404884515860.84956853304938165311124.5WETL
2024-12-01 11:00:01FORECAST20256314342.51231.96437.23863.8408480010.2110.21TT10.5124.51230339.8679148868421.6974558943680.83975125089811164311124WETL
2024-12-01 07:00:02FORECAST20256314341.93631.85636.89663.4402806666670010.2110.21TT9.9363.93630339.6052488563121.5446523033180.82229403237532164311124WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20256314342.00831.74836.87863.3949182666670010.2110.21TT10.0084.00830339.5754862923821.5273601988690.82453938759358164311124WETL
2024-11-30 23:00:01FORECAST20256314342.58431.4637.02264.84311120010.2110.21TT10.584-1.41630340.5239642650222.0806332811010.84185199768835164311124WETL
2024-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20256314342.58431.49637.0464.81506720010.2110.21TT10.584-1.41630340.5056302640322.0698953075420.84185199768835164311124WETL
2024-11-30 15:00:01FORECAST20256314341.5431.53236.53664.9318680010.2110.21TT9.54-2.4630340.5819811632922.1146242440730.8096235871059164311124WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20256314340.13631.3735.75364.96424160010.2110.21TT8.136-5.86430340.6031392823422.1270246300560.76042230657988164311124WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:03FORECAST20256314340.02831.1935.60965.3967521166670010.2110.21TT8.028-3.97230340.8856444164922.2928139880350.7563704834137164311124WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:03FORECAST20256314340.98231.3736.17665.3931113166670010.2110.21TT8.982-3.01830340.8832676313222.2914174662040.79085697809135164311124WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20256314340.76633.4437.10367.8688920010.2110.21TT8.766-6.23430342.4944417370723.2447182768540.78331023086701164311124WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20256314340.38833.42236.90567.85649360010.2110.21TT8.388-6.61230342.4863983949323.2399261007730.76973207449079164311124WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:01FORECAST20256314340.53232.6336.58167.9461360010.2110.21TT8.532-6.46830342.5445473307923.2745783989970.77495990933001164311124WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:02FORECAST20256314340.96431.17236.06868.001240010.2110.21TT8.964-6.03630342.5802854411423.2958842095520.790234043809164311124WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20256314341.01831.22636.12268.4381231333330010.2110.21TT9.018-6.98230342.8634522866723.4649311655150.79209958052799164311124WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20256314340.74831.2836.01468.4645633926140010.2110.21TT8.748-7.25230342.8805795219623.4751691727770.78267431815959164311124WETL
2024-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20256314340.40629.78635.09671.2166100218340010.2110.21TT8.406-12.59430344.6569998778924.5453031515990.7703892389646164311124WETL
2024-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20256314341.70229.96635.83471.05368720010.2110.21TT9.702-7.29830344.5521801678924.4817028337270.81487245098598164311124WETL
2024-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20256314342.92630.57836.75271.11420320010.2110.21TT10.926-12.07430344.5911194306524.5053228881070.85158329594529165311124.5WETL
2024-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20256314340.94629.2135.07871.22824880010.2110.21TT8.946-14.05430344.6644862625524.5498477800330.78961002215842164311124WETL
2024-11-28 07:00:03FORECAST20256314341.10829.46235.28571.2967464833330010.2110.21TT9.108-11.89230344.708541386924.5765974859020.79518698851478164311124WETL
2024-11-28 03:00:04FORECAST20256314340.06429.62434.84471.3344336833330010.2110.21TT8.064-18.93630344.7327771028324.5913174267130.75772518200154164311124WETL
2024-11-27 23:00:02FORECAST20256314341.39629.87635.63671.09639280010.1710.17TT9.396-17.60430344.5796598789324.4983708496430.80488218278695164311124WETL
2024-11-27 19:00:01FORECAST20256314340.96429.89435.42971.1467307266240010.1710.17TT8.964-18.03630344.6120469249724.5180205077220.790234043809164311124WETL
2024-11-27 15:00:02FORECAST20256314340.71231.4636.08671.2438826933780010.1710.17TT8.712-19.28830344.6745420677224.5559526424660.78139927091442164311124WETL
2024-11-27 11:00:02FORECAST20256314341.70232.2736.98671.2468138957240010.1710.17TT9.702-19.29830344.6764273885524.5570972763950.81487245098598164311124WETL
2024-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20256314341.68432.6337.15771.4480285390010010.1710.17TT9.684-19.31630344.8058131408724.6356955777030.81429371269101164311124WETL
2024-11-27 03:00:04FORECAST20256314340.44229.9335.18671.5594846313750010.1710.17TT8.442-21.55830344.8774535779824.6792528390210.77170041605016164311124WETL
2024-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20256314340.15428.4934.32273.324204840153009.879.87TT8.154-19.84630346.0090610929925.3708392721320.76109402163738164311124WETL
2024-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20256314339.23628.2233.72873.479078685958009.879.87TT7.236-23.76430346.1081303546225.4317065441770.7255615728925164311124WETL
2024-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20256314338.19227.89633.04473.633240839485009.889.88TT6.192-25.80830346.2067056669425.4923217386180.68222223084114163311123.5WETL
2024-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20256314337.05828.3132.68474.8805643046550.0023622060.0023622069.99.902362206TT5.058-27.94230347.002858912225.9837698906740.63216237950409163311123.5WETL
2024-11-26 07:00:04FORECAST20256314336.7728.74232.75674.9148055914920.0023622060.0023622069.879.872362206TT4.77-28.2330347.0246792073725.997286378270.61904039105974163311123.5WETL
2024-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20256314336.98629.69633.34174.9376421414810.0023622060.0023622069.889.882362206TT4.986-27.01430347.0392307674226.0063016843040.62889562864785163311123.5WETL
2024-11-25 23:00:02FORECAST20256314334.17825.84430.01169.8817208147450.3362206540.3362206549.9710.306220654TT2.178-42.82230343.7968921302524.0251184328230.49654678740246162312126WETL
2024-11-25 19:00:02FORECAST20256314333.38625.75429.5770.0059533539480.35433090.35433091010.3543309TT1.386-43.61430343.8770618815224.0734415535710.45863532753558162312126WETL
2024-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20256314332.82825.28629.05770.1048067375750.3645671260.3645671261010.364567126TT0.828-44.17230343.9408358832124.1119058287530.43212894979607162312126WETL
2024-11-25 11:00:02FORECAST20256314335.11426.8730.99267.883019169204009.889.88TT3.114-25.88630342.5036062927923.2501788714950.54136467246442163311123.5WETL
2024-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20256314335.07825.82630.45268.8905703090810.1736221410.1736221419.9110.083622141TT3.078-25.92230343.156375975123.6402384461220.53964695332285163312127WETL
2024-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20256314336.3226.9631.6469.0722407687070.0488189240.0488189249.99.948818924TT4.32-30.6830343.2738985118523.7106973676230.59826584783759163311123.5WETL
2024-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20256314335.40227.69831.5562.6916591863160.0011811030.01118110310.0210.031181103TT3.402-35.59830339.1136345050721.2595963998250.55507596825277163311123.5WETL
2024-11-24 19:00:02FORECAST20256314335.627.57231.58663.3508014426850.0011811030.01118110310.0510.061181103TT3.6-41.430339.5465376694321.5105452884470.56446541103638163311123.5WETL
2024-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20256314335.630.00232.80163.0892070758960.0003937010.00039370110.0810.080393701TT3.6-38.430339.3748177477421.4108881532320.56446541103638163311123.5WETL
2024-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20256314337.29231.96434.62867.84825852906009.959.95TT5.292-24.70830342.4810558322723.2367432174130.64271240511702163311123.5WETL
2024-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20256314338.2133.3535.7867.6517866814410010.0610.06TT6.21-19.7930342.3535601373223.1608300200420.68299347905413163311123.5WETL
2024-11-24 03:00:04FORECAST20256314339.48834.95237.2266.215484768839009.99.9TT7.488-10.51230341.4195712063622.6072624169980.7355689172562164311124WETL
2024-11-23 23:00:02FORECAST20256314339.7435.63637.68870.1013250466391.1011816971.1111816979.7210.831181697TT7.74-10.2630343.9385899866924.110550892740.745387379121171643141216WETL
2024-11-23 19:00:03FORECAST20256314340.8237.5839.266.0344255764451.0425202481.0525202489.7810.832520248TT8.82-7.1830341.3015912056822.5376545235940.785211511538661643141216WETL
2024-11-23 15:00:02FORECAST20256314346.432.05439.22777.5094299481241.6728355491.9928355499.6711.662835549TT14.4-21.630348.6725981980927.0254143248660.928072413348341653151222.5WETL
2024-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20256314341.50428.61635.0670.2191285993340.6318901050.7618901059.410.161890105TT9.504-34.49630344.0145692119524.1564032755390.808444905522821643131212WETL
2024-11-23 07:00:04FORECAST20256314343.86229.31836.5969.6777116285130.6330712080.7630712089.4210.183071208TT11.862-36.13830343.6651860138723.9458037278340.876137732080991653131213.5WETL
2024-11-23 03:00:04FORECAST20256314347.4836.12241.80165.6316358546820.1287402270.1287402279.219.338740227TT15.48-8.5230341.0389346562122.3829431716250.94428510466028165312129WETL
2024-11-22 23:00:03FORECAST20256314340.40634.57437.4967.74215469313007.547.54TT8.406-10.59430342.4122101940523.1957409117820.7703892389646164311124WETL
2024-11-22 19:00:03FORECAST20256314339.34432.12635.73567.376815048661007.357.35TT7.344-13.65630342.175017019423.0546628359880.72987320800985164311124WETL
2024-11-22 15:00:02FORECAST20256314332.05422.7327.39269.826885550816007.747.74TT0.054000000000002-34.94630343.7614977855124.0037947626460.39588644896053162311123WETL
2024-11-22 11:00:03FORECAST20256314332.79229.7531.27181.8374423007290.1862205731.1962205737.728.916220573TT0.792-40.20830351.3973882973328.7574634894090.430428003017751623141212WETL
2024-11-22 07:00:04FORECAST20256314331.56829.24630.40776.1581855199100.567.448TT-0.432-32.43230347.8157400711426.4890156590820.37356055662531162313129WETL
2024-11-22 03:00:04FORECAST20256314331.58631.22631.40686.68002563609701.358.279.62TT-0.414-35.41430354.4108393134730.7203406374020.374380432942821623141212WETL