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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 30, 2024

[ Friday, November 29, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 1, 2024 ]

DAY 61 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/01/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.63°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.91°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.671
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -17

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 65 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 141

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-12-01 07:00:02OBSERVATION20256114139.1899224.6300831.9164.5536766666670012.6512.65TT7.18992-16.8100832342.2847579191 22.0957395906380.6708756688876816 3311123.5WETL
2024-12-01 03:00:02OBSERVATION20256114139.1899224.6300831.9164.5536766666670012.6512.65TT7.18992-16.8100832342.2847579191 22.0957395906380.6708756688876816 3311123.5WETL
2024-11-30 11:00:01FORECAST20256114133.4422.7328.08565.9714640012.6512.65TT1.44-22.5632343.2036188874622.6416451881040.43214443648897162311123WETL
2024-11-30 07:00:03FORECAST20256114134.32223.37828.8566.3913793166670012.6512.65TT2.322-21.67832343.475129382522.8037876006750.46937175946264162311123WETL
2024-11-30 03:00:03FORECAST20256114133.99823.0928.54466.3941345166670012.6512.65TT1.998-22.00232343.4769098944422.80485215890.4556476859207162311123WETL
2024-11-29 23:00:01FORECAST20256114132.8123.8128.3168.98701120012.6512.65TT0.81-25.1932345.1470110456123.810660716650.40589838094246162311123WETL
2024-11-29 19:00:01FORECAST20256114132.6323.97228.30168.99439120012.6512.65TT0.63-25.3732345.1517489065323.8135347874210.39847114591124162311123WETL
2024-11-29 15:00:01FORECAST20256114132.5423.2727.90568.99626080012.6512.65TT0.54-25.4632345.1529491505323.8142628954790.39477108973741162311123WETL
2024-11-29 11:00:02FORECAST20256114133.1724.1728.6768.98563360012.6512.65TT1.17-24.8332345.1461266350723.8101242305060.42085230691779162311123WETL
2024-11-29 07:00:03FORECAST20256114132.8121.86627.33869.3528495333330012.6512.65TT0.81-25.1932345.3817674572923.9532097500220.40589838094246162311123WETL
2024-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20256114133.72822.08227.90569.3438657926140012.6512.65TT1.728-25.27232345.3760052533923.949707356280.44425054924036162311123WETL
2024-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20256114135.6922.4629.07571.9504772218340012.6512.65TT3.69-30.3132347.0423918701724.9698657112650.52752595400086163311123.5WETL
2024-11-28 19:00:01FORECAST20256114136.62622.60429.61571.9183280012.6512.65TT4.626-27.37432347.0219062464624.9572352766180.56705426560224163311123.5WETL
2024-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20256114134.50222.74828.62571.95827840012.6512.65TT2.502-31.49832347.0473625625624.9729307332620.47701305696819162311123WETL
2024-11-28 11:00:01FORECAST20256114135.29423.37829.33671.92600320012.6512.65TT3.294-31.70632347.0267970692324.9602505164870.51069737897755163311123.5WETL
2024-11-28 07:00:03FORECAST20256114135.70823.64829.67872.0136888833330012.6512.65TT3.708-30.29232347.0826657375224.994703107220.52828995050041163311123.5WETL
2024-11-28 03:00:03FORECAST20256114134.23223.2728.75172.0589528833330012.6512.65TT2.232-34.76832347.1115006892825.0124912734320.46555516013175162311123WETL
2024-11-27 23:00:02FORECAST20256114135.38423.73829.56171.91478560012.6112.61TT3.384-33.61632347.0196489114824.9558436504560.51452480746302163311123.5WETL
2024-11-27 19:00:01FORECAST20256114135.47423.95429.71471.9192691266240012.6112.61TT3.474-33.52632347.022505960224.9576049991470.51835089831353163311123.5WETL
2024-11-27 15:00:01FORECAST20256114134.53822.94628.74271.9630882933780012.6112.61TT2.538-35.46232347.0504272429124.9748205379360.47854242172491162311123WETL
2024-11-27 11:00:02FORECAST20256114134.68222.83828.7671.9953772995870012.6112.61TT2.682-35.31832347.0709995951624.9875075655980.48466281594113162311123WETL
2024-11-27 07:00:03FORECAST20256114134.57422.89228.73372.191557916260012.6112.61TT2.574-35.42632347.1959562411725.0646169832750.48007210249576162311123WETL
2024-11-27 03:00:03FORECAST20256114133.18822.06427.62672.206978978970012.6112.61TT1.188-35.81232347.2057760007125.0706801690610.42160320055345162311123WETL
2024-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20256114135.49224.96230.22774.01172564015300.0112.312.31TT3.492-33.50832348.3523425219625.782158000840.51911592499207163311123.5WETL
2024-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20256114134.68224.60229.64274.05570268595800.0112.312.31TT2.682-37.31832348.3802158618425.7995416875340.48466281594113162311123WETL
2024-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20256114135.00625.46630.23674.05823043948500.0212.312.32TT3.006-36.99432348.3818178969625.800540950740.4984447238606162311123WETL
2024-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20256114136.37427.03231.70374.22725205492200.0312.3112.34TT4.374-35.62632348.4889167799425.8673746641710.55646112739537163311123.5WETL
2024-11-26 07:00:04FORECAST20256114136.15826.92431.54174.32925220725800.0212.2912.31TT4.158-35.84232348.5535259300425.9077229365830.54734877392069163311123.5WETL
2024-11-26 03:00:03FORECAST20256114135.20425.35830.28174.35273868289700.0212.312.32TT3.204-34.79632348.5684004118825.917015188940.50686896513533163311123.5WETL
2024-11-25 23:00:02FORECAST20256114132.14424.00828.07667.83948611172400.112.3112.41TT0.144-45.85632344.4092337573923.3645454302340.37860749853666162312126WETL
2024-11-25 19:00:02FORECAST20256114131.89223.64827.7767.92928564322400.1212.3212.44TT-0.108-46.10832344.4670460781123.3994003677180.36842906582883162312126WETL
2024-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20256114131.29822.15426.72667.95048389491600.1312.3112.44TT-0.702-46.70232344.4806914430323.4076296760090.34481033864179162312126WETL
2024-11-25 11:00:02FORECAST20256114136.46424.830.63268.28458956920400.0212.312.32TT4.464-34.53632344.6956590418923.5374016039620.56024942998611163311123.5WETL
2024-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20256114136.33825.10630.72268.4672004656140012.3512.35TT4.338-34.66232344.8130760029923.6083859978620.55494434050264163311123.5WETL
2024-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20256114134.8824.6229.7568.5299202803040012.3412.34TT2.88-37.1232344.8533916466323.6327754379360.49308396705702162311123WETL
2024-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20256114133.74624.27829.01262.81846303073400.0112.4512.46TT1.746-41.25432341.1556620179921.4308743422030.4450090321986162311123WETL
2024-11-24 19:00:02FORECAST20256114133.47623.6328.55363.47033471237900.1212.3712.49TT1.476-46.52432341.5804157621.6802233194810.43365446147629162312126WETL
2024-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20256114134.35821.72228.0463.45385426201100.1612.3612.52TT2.358-47.64232341.5696859094721.6739130700210.47089920734455162312126WETL
2024-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20256114135.45624.11629.78668.5199369290600.0212.3712.39TT3.456-35.54432344.8469748822223.6288929691070.51758580405186163311123.5WETL
2024-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20256114136.10424.83630.4768.7890938814410012.512.5TT4.104-32.89632345.0199176503923.733607506220.5450665919215163311123.5WETL
2024-11-24 03:00:04FORECAST20256114138.13832.2735.20468.0531047688390012.3412.34TT6.138-30.86232344.5467383565823.4474752831420.62935274224686163311123.5WETL
2024-11-23 23:00:02FORECAST20256114140.08232.52236.30268.1328465440660012.1612.16TT8.082-28.91832344.598048370823.4784459490320.70453214124349164311124WETL
2024-11-23 19:00:03FORECAST20256114140.42432.8136.61768.3161247764450012.2212.22TT8.424-28.57632344.7159397521123.5496571525350.71700222798952164311124WETL
2024-11-23 15:00:02FORECAST20256114134.5228.18431.35269.0661634490660.0562992430.05629924312.1112.166299243TT2.52-38.4832345.1978210953823.8414891340350.47777769843977162311123WETL
2024-11-23 11:00:02FORECAST20256114131.96424.2628.11269.5160357783930.1330709380.15307093811.8211.973070938TT-0.036000000000001-46.03632345.4864128239324.0168458348170.37132814051982162312126WETL
2024-11-23 07:00:04FORECAST20256114131.80225.1628.48169.4457124920970.1330709380.15307093811.8411.993070938TT-0.198-50.19832345.4413223924923.9894187577590.3648157416233162312126WETL
2024-11-23 03:00:04FORECAST20256114140.40630.34435.37567.37862945468200.0111.6411.65TT8.406-32.59432344.1123298329123.1858171625990.71635224512434164311124WETL
2024-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20256114140.49632.86436.6868.55808749313009.989.98TT8.496-27.50432344.8714951479123.6437301382370.71959499290237164311124WETL
2024-11-22 19:00:02FORECAST20256114138.9332.2735.667.786355848661009.799.79TT6.93-27.0732344.3750226500523.3439278307470.66078640216785163311123.5WETL
2024-11-22 15:00:02FORECAST20256114135.4228.92232.17169.8294439508160010.1810.18TT3.42-34.5832345.6872684089724.1391497338750.51605542403554163311123.5WETL
2024-11-22 11:00:03FORECAST20256114133.96225.93429.94873.1094623434730.0011811030.00118110310.1610.161181103TT1.962-43.03832347.7797861569125.4259931798590.45412574809307162311123WETL
2024-11-22 07:00:04FORECAST20256114135.97827.84231.9172.199432262330.0011811030.0011811039.889.881181103TT3.978-40.02232347.2009704822425.0677129497480.53973584185428163311123.5WETL
2024-11-22 03:00:04FORECAST20256114134.59222.42428.50877.7250878222860.0956693430.64566934310.1610.805669343TT2.592-43.40832350.6949957905127.2577993466530.48083705435927162313129WETL
2024-11-21 23:00:03FORECAST20256114132.2722.127.18581.6264631522050.3830710730.9730710739.8310.803071073TT0.27-47.7332353.1325746002628.8249630884510.3837289655356162313129WETL
2024-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20256114138.19225.84432.01878.3954869676210.3350395510.9050395519.7910.695039551TT6.192-36.80832351.1155816989327.5258770092080.631526441849191633131210.5WETL
2024-11-21 15:00:03FORECAST20256114145.26628.72436.99576.4323368303070.3389765610.9189765619.5410.458976561TT13.266-26.73432349.8819423884226.7422944714740.862276159252361653131213.5WETL
2024-11-21 11:00:03FORECAST20256114139.18226.52832.85588.3065149947441.6523630972.5323630979.8812.412363097TT7.182-29.81832357.2505900303931.54755458540.67057002324661633151217.5WETL
2024-11-21 07:00:05FORECAST20256114144.92424.7134.81780.1086610027520.2582678560.8282678569.9310.758267856TT12.924-26.07632352.1871216559628.2132387382730.854079739642211653131213.5WETL
2024-11-21 03:00:06FORECAST20256114144.92424.47634.781.7355589856630.259842660.849842669.9810.82984266TT12.924-29.07632353.2003910936828.8690313999970.854079739642211653131213.5WETL
2024-11-20 23:00:03FORECAST20256114121.43419.32820.38177.4707332171350.1842520680.8042520689.7110.514252068TT-10.566-63.56632350.5352347510627.1562216546050.073216123059247161313127.5WETL
2024-11-20 19:00:04FORECAST20256114121.43419.32820.38177.4707332171350.1842520680.8042520689.7110.514252068TT-10.566-63.56632350.5352347510627.1562216546050.073216123059247161313127.5WETL
2024-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20256114123.07213.1918.13180.0112568717760.200787511.510787519.4210.93078751TT-8.928-55.92832352.1263231738728.1740696947780.100768181689451613151212.5WETL
2024-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST2025611417.614.9826.29684.2276025628201.3310.2611.59TT-24.39-64.3932354.7443966278729.8792700505590.00166831952073791613141210WETL
2024-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20256114116.05215.72815.8992.0605441321540.2031497161.57314971610.7212.293149716TT-15.948-55.94832359.5343331527733.0989263442360.0212511567397971613151212.5WETL
2024-11-20 03:00:05FORECAST20256114115.99815.81815.90883.9794710549970.0566929440.44669294410.9211.366692944TT-16.002-61.00232354.5910985256629.7783728949950.020957700379973161312125WETL