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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 18, 2024

[ Sunday, November 17, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 19, 2024 ]

DAY 49 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/19/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.072
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 64

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.71 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.62 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 129

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-19 07:00:03OBSERVATION20254912923.2899818.8900621.0900258.8794754166671.043.717.9111.62TT-8.7100264.2899844350.1337343702 20.6156906053960.07209493413307316 14151215WETL
2024-11-19 03:00:03OBSERVATION20254912923.2899818.8900621.0900258.8794754166671.043.717.9111.62TT-8.7100264.2899844350.1337343702 20.6156906053960.07209493413307316 14151215WETL
2024-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20254912920.62416.14218.38352.2903828177970.9047248983.5747248987.9111.484724898TT-11.37661.62444345.9521505026618.0899703864240.0390740585154871614151215WETL
2024-11-18 07:00:03FORECAST20254912920.44416.14218.29351.9286991105520.9043311973.5743311977.9111.484331197TT-11.55661.44444345.720585554417.9528202635780.0373839571819451614151215WETL
2024-11-18 03:00:02FORECAST20254912921.05616.64618.85151.9461359667750.9145674233.5845674237.9111.494567423TT-10.94462.05644345.731754236217.9594287135850.0433839997332641614151215WETL
2024-11-17 23:00:02FORECAST20254912921.81217.09619.45450.7576268746720.9826776964.1126776967.9112.022677696TT-10.18860.81244344.9693552429817.5098258166190.051840050281071614151215WETL
2024-11-17 15:00:01FORECAST20254912921.54216.71819.1350.7049713395750.9732288724.1032288727.9112.013228872TT-10.45860.54244344.9355247566517.4899458967870.0486814784259821614151215WETL
2024-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST2025491292316.37619.68856.120681624350.8177169773.9477169777.9111.857716977TT-96244348.3914556025119.5519659605130.0677055239616561614151215WETL
2024-11-17 07:00:03FORECAST20254912922.4616.64619.55355.8605817389060.7263783453.9463783457.9111.856378345TT-9.5462.4644348.2265623945719.45213835230.0600834036195391614151215WETL
2024-11-17 03:00:04FORECAST20254912922.58617.22219.90455.4732759600560.6492129493.8592129497.9111.769212949TT-9.41461.58644347.9808236291819.3036362579890.0617990892839071614151215WETL
2024-11-16 23:00:02FORECAST20254912921.95614.91818.43757.4697139257530.6618113814.1718113817.9112.081811381TT-10.04460.95644349.2449440285520.0710070233360.053589808318991614151215WETL
2024-11-16 19:00:01FORECAST20254912922.0116.48419.24757.9205587776720.6452759394.2852759397.9112.195275939TT-9.9961.0144349.5295273765220.2449455349430.0542578656073051614151215WETL
2024-11-16 15:00:01FORECAST20254912921.16415.85418.50958.9324285998370.6503940524.5203940527.9112.430394052TT-10.83659.16444350.167056960820.6361950823570.0445192214506461614151215WETL
2024-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20254912921.63214.95418.29362.8887975495780.685039744.225039747.9112.13503974TT-10.36860.63244352.6441022081622.1773635508210.0497168399826091614151215WETL
2024-11-16 07:00:03FORECAST20254912921.16414.82817.99661.7454750226590.6594491754.0294491757.9111.939449175TT-10.83659.16444351.930834284721.730136538030.0445192214506461614151215WETL
2024-11-16 03:00:03FORECAST20254912921.63216.50219.06763.6348461471660.8803154364.3703154367.9112.280315436TT-10.36860.63244353.1084131023722.469999541040.0497168399826091614151215WETL
2024-11-15 23:00:02FORECAST20254912921.88416.1619.02260.8378938942620.8996067854.3896067857.6512.039606785TT-10.11657.88444351.363158305521.3761945433430.0527091874804981614151215WETL
2024-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20254912921.86616.2519.05860.7288291992590.8881894564.3581894567.6512.008189456TT-10.13456.86644351.2948521424721.3337250743390.052490830200781614151215WETL
2024-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20254912921.77616.14218.95960.4875488402630.8814965394.3014965397.6511.951496539TT-10.22456.77644351.1436733364221.2398200908860.051409759126871614151215WETL
2024-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20254912922.87416.55619.71559.0884728066430.8291343063.9091343067.6511.559134306TT-9.12657.87444350.2652270226720.6966373420420.0658636344412831614151215WETL
2024-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20254912924.74617.67221.20959.0315810035040.8468508513.8768508517.6411.516850851TT-7.25459.74644350.2294399295820.6745975530150.09747465859091614151215WETL
2024-11-15 03:00:04FORECAST20254912922.5516.46619.50857.1659220306570.6236223843.4236223847.6411.063622384TT-9.4557.5544349.052999930719.9539365786060.0613050494451051614151215WETL
2024-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20254912921.50616.30418.90550.7212115664130.7555122193.8055122197.1810.985512219TT-10.49454.50644344.945959370617.4960769842160.0482721747323721614151215WETL
2024-11-14 19:00:02FORECAST20254912921.3816.46618.92350.848081599070.728346853.848346857.1911.03834685TT-10.6254.3844345.0274606479917.5439844729490.0468611807845721614151215WETL
2024-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20254912923.4518.7721.1149.779445226440.7090555013.7790555017.1910.969055501TT-8.5559.4544344.3401471352417.1410614935830.0746084972157521614151215WETL
2024-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20254912922.53218.12220.32750.837105331920.5444884833.3344884837.1910.524488483TT-9.46858.53244345.0204105344917.5398389520040.0610591854813741614151215WETL
2024-11-14 07:00:04FORECAST20254912922.53218.12220.32750.7153980098480.5444884833.3344884837.210.534488483TT-9.46858.53244344.9422241139617.4938821863420.0610591854813741614151215WETL
2024-11-14 03:00:04FORECAST20254912922.44218.48220.46250.8314496206140.5444884833.3344884837.210.534488483TT-9.55858.44244345.0167777649517.5377029572260.0598413696946761614151215WETL
2024-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20254912923.14417.8720.50752.2127454872060.7192917273.6592917278.3712.029291727TT-8.85658.14444345.9024617849918.0605172005780.0698588143368011614151215WETL
2024-11-13 19:00:02FORECAST20254912923.3617.45620.40851.8576866822870.7393704783.5993704788.3511.949370478TT-8.6456.3644345.6750954556217.9259107940070.073186716929511614151215WETL
2024-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20254912922.71216.84419.77851.9290532030710.7291342523.5891342528.2811.869134252TT-9.28854.71244345.7208123632117.9529544586180.0635526487472371614151215WETL
2024-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20254912924.31416.91620.61556.7212733770160.5881892943.1881892948.2811.468189294TT-7.68657.31444348.7717914729119.7827801303270.0893437328991871614151215WETL
2024-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20254912924.0818.0521.06556.6718949200360.6248034873.1348034878.1511.284803487TT-7.9257.0844348.7405435343919.7637874375370.0851550757073021614151215WETL
2024-11-13 03:00:04FORECAST20254912924.18817.97821.08356.3202645452480.5527562043.0127562048.1311.142756204TT-7.81257.18844348.5179095634419.628620865370.0870697090898641614151215WETL
2024-11-12 23:00:02FORECAST20254912926.02417.6921.85748.960789974820.3358269532.6458269538.9111.555826953TT-5.97662.02444343.8123501919916.83332426850.124666810638251614151215WETL
2024-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20254912925.03416.5220.77749.5106359341050.4389766152.6389766158.8611.498976615TT-6.96657.03444344.1669635378817.0399252322710.103187883332911614151215WETL
2024-11-12 15:00:03FORECAST20254912924.29617.22220.75948.9000412061450.4389766152.6389766158.6811.318976615TT-7.70454.29644343.7731409669116.8105207588480.0890162030374631614151215WETL
2024-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20254912925.05217.04221.04753.3491734929950.4759845092.6459845098.7711.415984509TT-6.94856.05244346.6288106996718.4923605596870.103552842781391614151215WETL
2024-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20254912924.83616.95220.89451.8785379671270.366141932.416141938.711.11614193TT-7.16454.83644345.6884535037317.9338115598910.0992346384503371614151215WETL
2024-11-12 03:00:05FORECAST20254912922.83818.75220.79552.1538210595730.3724411462.2724411468.7110.982441146TT-9.16246.83844345.8647429832218.0381679163620.0653445533531941614151215WETL
2024-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20254912924.22417.79821.01149.9435712676540.2574804542.0074804549.1111.117480454TT-7.77644.22444344.4458291734917.2028548171720.0877149885773331614151215WETL
2024-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20254912924.24218.35621.29950.4989082041930.2685040822.0385040829.1811.218504082TT-7.75844.24244344.8030884026717.4121795097690.0880389586164191614151215WETL
2024-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20254912924.99817.99621.49750.1465359946990.255905652.055905658.9711.02590565TT-7.00243.99844344.5764588305817.2793157956740.102460759280391614151215WETL
2024-11-11 11:00:03FORECAST20254912926.00619.43622.72153.5115861278230.3724411461.8324411469.2211.052441146TT-5.99447.00644346.7324457464318.5542031338710.124250373445871614151215WETL
2024-11-11 07:00:04FORECAST20254912926.40221.18223.79254.4676235315290.413386052.003386059.1411.14338605TT-5.59850.40244347.3416247659318.918872854580.133637222424381614151215WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20254912925.39419.18422.28955.0966394187540.3614175181.9114175189.2611.171417518TT-6.60643.39444347.741622347419.1593947773670.110665270166181614151215WETL
2024-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20254912925.1618.69821.92956.845567864940.3224411192.0124411199.8411.852441119TT-6.8452.1644348.8504308270119.830600840290.10576221835871614151215WETL
2024-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20254912925.37619.3122.34355.4160796893460.2724410921.9224410929.6211.542441092TT-6.62451.37644347.9445131017119.2817208655150.110282443863271614151215WETL
2024-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20254912926.38421.25423.81955.3389825402490.3074804811.8774804819.8411.717480481TT-5.61648.38444347.8955603359119.2521863392590.133200275916041614151215WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20254912926.67221.27223.97249.6417453204290.3255907271.4155907279.1710.585590727TT-5.32846.67244344.251447097917.0892426630230.140309430957611614141212WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20254912927.51821.14624.33249.1176104665340.3362206541.1562206549.2110.366220654TT-4.48249.51844343.9135392590916.8922112554950.162656692460541614141212WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20254912932.75624.58428.6750.1037637209920.287401730.697401739.4110.10740173TT0.75653.75644344.5489358669817.2631984729990.346903545268311624131210.5WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:03FORECAST20254912932.10824.6228.36461.0163433205730.468504191.1185041910.4611.57850419TT0.10853.10844351.4748786535521.4457118644820.320373128175461624141214WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:03FORECAST20254912933.38623.10828.24765.0857012888650.8122051631.79220516310.3812.172205163TT1.38657.38644354.0088520636323.0409143990270.373438546003041624151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20254912933.78223.6328.70666.0416904016380.8377957281.88779572810.5212.407795728TT1.78258.78244354.6003531245123.418406737360.390439707855051624151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20254912930.25423.75627.00560.769207310070.4539372531.16393725310.9212.083937253TT-1.74658.25444351.320142768521.3494465881030.249703914539561624141214WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:06FORECAST20254912928.8524.1726.5161.316941169670.7094492021.26944920210.711.969449202TT-3.1555.8544351.6629569918221.562896845420.202268903228451614141212WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:05FORECAST20254912933.24225.89829.5759.2089393054951.1952762362.23527623611.0213.255276236TT1.24284.24244350.3409879342320.7433182908250.367314925019011624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20254912927.8622.87425.36768.6422223677070.1330709382.24307093810.5712.813070938TT-4.1464.8644356.2021367418924.4505062780890.172312651658331614151215WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20254912932.75626.09629.42671.8550102957120.5921263042.70212630410.3413.042126304TT0.75668.75644358.1664817428425.736056233210.346903545268311624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:03FORECAST20254912932.73827.57230.15572.2957978404660.7488193023.40881930210.2413.648819302TT0.73871.73844358.4347372795425.9133253053630.346155601601241624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:04FORECAST20254912934.53831.98233.2654.4602545828640.1696851310.79968513110.7311.529685131TT2.53878.53844347.3369349884518.9160579055030.423458527780391624131210.5WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:05FORECAST20254912929.96626.63628.30166.9157493095880.917323331.9873233310.5812.56732333TT-2.03459.96644355.1399058578623.7644529102150.239517781478621614151215WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:05FORECAST20254912926.9626.25826.60960.2953753541230.1582678021.22826780210.4811.708267802TT-5.0453.9644351.0231970755921.1650754256770.147671202093971614141212WETL