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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 17, 2024

[ Saturday, November 16, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, November 18, 2024 ]

DAY 48 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/18/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.86°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.341
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 71

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.32 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.94 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.97 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 48 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.89 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.37 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-18 07:00:03OBSERVATION20254812832.8600422.3899827.6250147.5901279166671.31999999999992.93999999999997.9710.91TT0.8600470.8600445343.8932688889 16.3659246561030.3412023737601416 24151217.5WETL
2024-11-18 03:00:02OBSERVATION20254812832.8600422.3899827.6250147.5901279166671.31999999999992.93999999999997.9710.91TT0.8600470.8600445343.8932688889 16.3659246561030.3412023737601416 24151217.5WETL
2024-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20254812831.42419.4925.45752.389306052411.7830718293.4030718297.9711.373071829TT-0.57669.42445346.9707932221318.1775590773620.280427269076021624151217.5WETL
2024-11-17 07:00:03FORECAST20254812831.53220.08425.80852.4948563759791.8681112453.4881112457.9711.458111245TT-0.46869.53245347.0380577787618.2177130000950.284811312125771624151217.5WETL
2024-11-17 03:00:03FORECAST20254812831.47820.67826.07852.3955039020121.8614183283.4814183287.9711.451418328TT-0.52269.47845346.974743453618.1799165245230.282615209172561624151217.5WETL
2024-11-16 23:00:01FORECAST20254812831.67621.05626.36654.0719044146511.9476388473.7776388477.9711.747638847TT-0.32468.67645348.0409260303518.81923568470.290707020124651624151217.5WETL
2024-11-16 19:00:01FORECAST20254812831.62221.16426.39354.5923984594062.0846467953.9146467957.9711.884646795TT-0.37868.62245348.3710351775419.0184103641280.288489454784731624151217.5WETL
2024-11-16 15:00:01FORECAST20254812830.79420.46225.62855.4902412300292.3059067574.1359067577.9712.105906757TT-1.20667.79445348.9394427524919.3627338530080.255524150247341624151217.5WETL
2024-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20254812831.6420.1225.8859.2315986413241.9771664223.8071664227.9711.777166422TT-0.3668.6445351.2941208049320.8077123685740.28922775798021624151217.5WETL
2024-11-16 07:00:03FORECAST20254812831.8220.60626.21358.2518772001871.9259852923.6359852927.9711.605985292TT-0.1867.8245350.6796797349420.427749640520.296659125537731624151217.5WETL
2024-11-16 03:00:02FORECAST20254812832.43220.71426.57358.9209036645982.2803161923.7603161927.9711.730316192TT0.43269.43245351.0994312058420.6870957627740.322554833646221624151217.5WETL
2024-11-15 23:00:02FORECAST20254812832.52221.16426.84355.8408985808082.2905524183.5005524187.9711.470552418TT0.52265.52245349.1610856501519.4974687721550.326440791963351624151217.5WETL
2024-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20254812832.43221.03826.73555.7874331532632.2881902123.4781902127.9711.448190212TT0.43265.43245349.1273040680919.4769161376780.322554833646221624151217.5WETL
2024-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20254812831.96420.96626.46555.5660781940572.2464579063.4264579067.9711.396457906TT-0.03600000000000164.96445348.9873943825619.3918608450020.302666377007111624151217.5WETL
2024-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20254812831.71221.36226.53754.5638614417012.0633869413.0933869417.9711.063386941TT-0.28864.71245348.352947658319.0074819688360.292189807329531624151217.5WETL
2024-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20254812832.16221.0226.59154.5383350517792.0031506883.0331506887.9711.003150688TT0.16265.16245348.3367672439518.9977073228040.311014002447791624151217.5WETL
2024-11-15 03:00:04FORECAST20254812832.05421.6526.85253.7909274503661.8527569062.8027569067.9710.772756906TT0.05400000000000265.05445347.8625425874218.711848791020.306448338953751624151217.5WETL
2024-11-14 23:00:01FORECAST20254812831.76620.85826.31246.2080857404832.0775601773.0475601777.5110.557560177TT-0.23462.76645343.0000400574715.8493752599650.294420555383221624151217.5WETL
2024-11-14 19:00:01FORECAST20254812831.44221.14626.29446.5377511276882.1114184633.1314184637.5110.641418463TT-0.55863.44245343.2133912229415.9723793844230.281155671672421624151217.5WETL
2024-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20254812832.3622.127.2345.812300603722.0870090013.0770090017.5110.587009001TT0.3666.3645342.7436617478515.7018756620120.319459926763441624151217.5WETL
2024-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20254812833.2621.81227.53647.6732291621011.8397647732.7997647737.5110.309764773TT1.2666.2645343.9468782511316.3970583464560.358985216382561624151217.5WETL
2024-11-14 07:00:04FORECAST20254812833.2621.81227.53647.5515218400291.8397647732.7997647737.5210.319764773TT1.2666.2645343.8683599111916.3514638264120.358985216382561624151217.5WETL
2024-11-14 03:00:04FORECAST20254812832.88221.68627.28447.6582998167261.8653553382.7953553387.5210.315355338TT0.88265.88245343.9372480297316.391464484740.342170089004971624151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20254812832.66621.39827.03247.7197730923111.8614183282.9614183288.6811.641418328TT0.66664.66645343.9768992165316.4144995796090.332697515745791624151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 19:00:02FORECAST20254812832.6321.14626.88847.2546957837351.7842529322.8842529328.6611.544252932TT0.6362.6345343.676763541216.2403409090780.331128877016581624151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20254812832.2721.57826.92447.2763122155761.7503946462.8803946468.5911.470394646TT0.2762.2745343.6907214721416.2484298539140.315608914560151624151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20254812832.0920.76826.42953.1632012303531.6657489312.6257489318.5811.205748931TT0.09000000000000363.0945347.4635587243718.4722750926790.307966941189641624151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20254812832.0921.39826.74452.8128115806811.7342529052.5342529058.4610.994252905TT0.09000000000000363.0945347.240573656118.3387509896670.307966941189641624151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 03:00:03FORECAST20254812831.17221.36226.26752.8448627996291.720473372.490473378.4310.92047337TT-0.82863.17245347.2609790334818.3509587926890.270326580915931624151217.5WETL
2024-11-12 23:00:02FORECAST20254812831.67620.64226.15946.7030445812711.791339552.341339559.2111.55133955TT-0.32465.67645343.3202977732916.0341031725610.290707020124651624151217.5WETL
2024-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20254812831.20819.50825.35846.4319892050941.7314969982.2414969989.1511.391496998TT-0.79262.20845343.1449642230715.9329032745880.2717583436661624151217.5WETL
2024-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20254812830.86620.85825.86245.851104440031.7314969982.2414969988.9711.211496998TT-1.13459.86645342.7688091622915.7163284676850.258310702301591624151217.5WETL
2024-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20254812830.50620.1225.31350.0740070742761.7590560682.1990560689.0711.269056068TT-1.49460.50645345.4907661866417.3001070701270.244536717376141614151215WETL
2024-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20254812829.87620.15625.01649.3192078212881.6551190042.075119004911.075119004TT-2.12459.87645345.0063855252317.015441627390.22141437009261614151215WETL
2024-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20254812829.6621.7425.749.5427320816791.5748041.9248049.0210.944804TT-2.3453.6645345.1499255334917.0996702887180.213783665680261614151215WETL
2024-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20254812829.44420.46224.95347.9986778134061.4204732081.7704732089.4211.190473208TT-2.55650.44445344.1567192082216.5190674825940.206308071839291614151215WETL
2024-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20254812828.8520.53424.69248.4744641780321.4429141651.7929141659.4911.282914165TT-3.1549.8545344.4631820776516.6976681802740.186563427385061614151215WETL
2024-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20254812828.63420.01224.32348.249876948441.5055126241.8155126249.2811.095512624TT-3.36648.63445344.3185674047916.6133285083440.17968313460661614151215WETL
2024-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20254812828.423.2725.83550.9284159993331.3980322511.4680322519.5411.008032251TT-3.651.445346.0379504060717.6231646898370.172411512970011614141212WETL
2024-11-11 07:00:04FORECAST20254812828.9423.1826.0651.6576440440081.5279535811.5879535819.4711.057953581TT-3.0653.9445346.5040273994617.8995817072160.189477623884651614151215WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20254812826.02419.52622.77552.3456852647341.4834653681.5534653689.5911.143465368TT-5.97648.02445346.9429895285618.1609685346680.109314928213151614151215WETL
2024-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20254812827.91422.3725.14254.2091699820321.5397646111.68976461110.1711.859764611TT-4.08656.91445348.1280253464718.8717313015160.157916722024961614151215WETL
2024-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20254812827.37422.47824.92653.1640463890821.45669371.68669379.9111.5966937TT-4.62656.37445347.464096336518.4725973361740.142775546411431614151215WETL
2024-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20254812828.50823.61226.0652.9374700349951.3877960251.61779602510.1211.737796025TT-3.49251.50845347.3199280066418.3862382814080.17574406878961614151215WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20254812829.01222.29825.65547.0744728464821.0051186531.1351186539.4510.585118653TT-2.98850.01245343.5603620805916.172922935890.191828988338121614141212WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20254812830.79424.02627.4146.581163261460.7515752090.8815752099.4810.361575209TT-1.20651.79445343.2414731570415.9885870992320.255524150247341624131210.5WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20254812829.78619.81424.847.7023000769550.3393702620.4693702629.6810.149370262TT-2.21450.78645343.9656294887616.4079516740320.21821618237541161412126WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20254812830.18221.72225.95256.6318040822820.5200790211.02007902110.4211.440079021TT-1.81851.18245349.6602756693719.8018922270640.232486103702571614141212WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20254812829.9323.30626.61857.483913127570.7255909431.15559094310.5311.685590943TT-2.0753.9345350.1969740352720.1306924329810.223346053226761614141212WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20254812830.9223.77427.34758.2450499519780.7818901861.25189018610.6511.901890186TT-1.0854.9245350.6753925981620.425105758810.260410889319261624141214WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20254812829.71422.3726.04256.760155671280.70866180.748661811.2111.9586618TT-2.28657.71445349.7411918649819.8513644949150.21567687409057161413129WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:06FORECAST20254812830.09221.97426.03355.0818425687010.5586617190.66866171910.9211.588661719TT-1.90857.09245348.6810538559619.2059949151830.22919818466612161413129WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:05FORECAST20254812837.16625.57431.3751.1826250095621.0389769391.15897693911.2312.388976939TT5.16681.16645346.2005229445717.7194515439860.542881476362641634141216WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20254812834.98827.37431.18167.3302117562091.4279535272.29795352710.7113.007953527TT2.98866.98845356.31510240523.9907712968630.438904872886871624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:03FORECAST20254812834.66425.62830.14666.6736063876161.5102370362.24023703610.5412.780237036TT2.66465.66445355.9118563466323.7299270187410.423621013763821624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:03FORECAST20254812832.61224.90828.7665.7029473309991.893701812.8137018110.4213.23370181TT0.61268.61245355.3145047944423.3452101944490.330345664741661624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:04FORECAST20254812838.4825.08831.78453.1951228050760.4031498240.87314982410.8211.693149824TT6.4874.4845347.4838634881618.4844467910350.604659152279021634131212WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:05FORECAST20254812836.1424.31430.22757.9877340622230.8417327381.12173273810.8611.981732738TT4.1460.1445350.5137581408520.3254985922220.49383143403481624141214WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:05FORECAST20254812833.92623.79228.85958.6228453580620.8413390371.12133903710.7611.881339037TT1.92656.92645350.9125156235120.5714901376050.389268274734371624141214WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:03FORECAST20254812828.59822.58625.59256.2355289815590.1598426060.46984260610.3810.849842606TT-3.40243.59845349.4102869755419.6492723196680.17855208025879161412126WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20254812838.35423.84631.155.789664824590.0771653960.28716539610.8511.137165396TT6.35451.35445349.1287142184819.4777739468890.59882258760064163412128WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:04FORECAST20254812838.327.17632.73854.69922691219600.0611.2211.28TT6.356.345348.4387342470719.0593293895790.59631435448758163411124WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20254812833.22431.87432.54947.41184538308300.089.869.94TT1.22456.22445343.7782190339416.2991597669090.35737133697869162411123.5WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:06FORECAST20254812836.98632.16234.57445.4937705460540.3421261690.5021261699.459.952126169TT4.98659.98645342.5371398077715.5833060419160.534302149415771634131212WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:06FORECAST20254812832.68432.55832.62153.0875789875250.0133858340.1733858349.89.973385834TT0.68453.68445347.4154501481118.4434451512240.33348293627132162412127WETL