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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 16, 2024

[ Friday, November 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 17, 2024 ]

DAY 47 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/17/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.282
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 70

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.91 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 46 in
SWE DAY: 46
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.73 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 15.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 127

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-17 07:00:03OBSERVATION20254712732.1600218.1099425.1349845.8480054166671.352.916.789.69TT0.1600270.1600246343.73446731029 15.7595397191370.2823763442074716 24151217.5WETL
2024-11-17 03:00:03OBSERVATION20254712732.1600218.1099425.1349845.8480054166671.352.916.789.69TT0.1600270.1600246343.73446731029 15.7595397191370.2823763442074716 24151217.5WETL
2024-11-16 11:00:01FORECAST20254712731.15416.75423.95452.1219410590841.5574811563.1174811566.789.897481156TT-0.84669.15446347.7526956546918.1255455060510.242780821235751614151215WETL
2024-11-16 07:00:03FORECAST20254712730.41616.32223.36951.3206313913321.4366149492.9966149496.789.776614949TT-1.58468.41646347.2430457271417.8207323529660.215760700351681614151215WETL
2024-11-16 03:00:02FORECAST20254712730.6516.44823.54950.6505158780931.2094494722.7694494726.789.549449472TT-1.3568.6546346.8160408807317.5664113854070.224134181541361614151215WETL
2024-11-15 23:00:01FORECAST20254712730.84816.4323.63947.2289353951851.1980321432.4980321436.789.278032143TT-1.15264.84846344.6244070395716.2762438556760.231361083024191614151215WETL
2024-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20254712730.77616.39423.58547.1397535772421.1818904022.4818904026.789.261890402TT-1.22464.77646344.5670280933516.2428047951630.22871821882711614151215WETL
2024-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20254712730.61416.6123.61247.0965896001341.1716541762.4716541766.789.251654176TT-1.38664.61446344.539252029916.2266237539890.222834088012091614151215WETL
2024-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20254712730.63216.0723.35146.7091142338591.0224414972.3224414976.789.102441497TT-1.36864.63246344.2897748203816.0814704216350.223483597941541614151215WETL
2024-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20254712730.66817.56424.11646.9849281394091.0322840222.3222840226.789.102284022TT-1.33264.66846344.4673836354516.1847752664820.224785837512291614151215WETL
2024-11-15 03:00:04FORECAST20254712730.18216.21423.19846.7667172810770.9456698022.2356698026.789.015669802TT-1.81865.18246344.3268782592916.1030377678280.207571113960511614151215WETL
2024-11-14 23:00:01FORECAST20254712730.48816.6123.54937.8072357371530.9732288721.8032288726.788.583228872TT-1.51263.48846338.4901318839212.7973762108360.218317687839581614151215WETL
2024-11-14 19:00:01FORECAST20254712730.2916.86223.57637.9877608726941.0094493641.8494493646.788.629449364TT-1.7164.2946338.6090528212712.8629997279040.211327914744791614151215WETL
2024-11-14 15:00:01FORECAST20254712730.9217.99624.45837.7331046129780.9767721811.8167721816.788.596772181TT-1.0865.9246338.4412822083712.7704403069190.23402086328691614151215WETL
2024-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20254712730.54218.08624.31440.5767186076170.9456698021.7856698026.788.565669802TT-1.45864.54246340.3085438012613.8086040215920.220246810554021614151215WETL
2024-11-14 07:00:03FORECAST20254712730.54218.08624.31440.4550112855440.9456698021.7956698026.788.575669802TT-1.45864.54246340.2289005451113.7639640112210.220246810554021614151215WETL
2024-11-14 03:00:04FORECAST20254712730.72218.42824.57540.417445351790.9240162471.7740162476.788.554016247TT-1.27864.72246340.2043130472413.750189231030.226747226475161614151215WETL
2024-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20254712730.57818.24824.41339.8684343910091.0791344411.9991344417.889.879134441TT-1.42263.57846339.8447088717213.5490764787840.221538294300031614151215WETL
2024-11-13 19:00:01FORECAST20254712730.30818.10424.20639.7866572922291.0811029461.9811029467.889.861102946TT-1.69262.30846339.7911016513213.519152112350.211957890397371614151215WETL
2024-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20254712730.1117.58223.84639.8248305473611.1110242221.9410242227.889.821024222TT-1.8962.1146339.8161266944413.5331196628670.205088609919411614151215WETL
2024-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20254712729.35417.27623.31546.1009621085350.925197351.755197357.889.63519735TT-2.64663.35446343.8977187550715.8540157015390.180100681538971614151215WETL
2024-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20254712729.51617.36623.44145.3801173909790.7779531761.5479531767.819.357953176TT-2.48462.51646343.4322283865315.5849948400260.185288133077431614151215WETL
2024-11-13 03:00:03FORECAST20254712729.58817.83423.71145.24021182390.7417326841.5217326847.789.301732684TT-2.41263.58846343.3417846143815.532855063950.187623082511621614151215WETL
2024-11-12 23:00:02FORECAST20254712730.03816.9723.50438.1738222034730.5165357121.3365357128.529.856535712TT-1.96266.03846338.7315636774112.9306784865260.202623802139191614141212WETL
2024-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20254712729.44416.98823.21638.0965976505580.4665356851.3265356858.439.756535685TT-2.55663.44446338.6807227081112.9025832250110.182971271570181614141212WETL
2024-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20254712729.01215.78222.39737.4505408143140.4665356851.2365356858.349.576535685TT-2.98861.01246338.2549987195412.6678326351920.169451615836441614141212WETL
2024-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20254712728.99417.92423.45941.1475683886810.4110238441.1210238448.499.611023844TT-3.00661.99446340.6817700615814.0182264323860.168902534779371614141212WETL
2024-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20254712728.8518.3223.58540.9089440343750.3909450931.1109450938.419.520945093TT-3.1561.8546340.5258213291913.9305517670150.164550996558221614141212WETL
2024-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20254712728.86817.0622.96441.1630127630840.3338584481.0038584488.479.473858448TT-3.13255.86846340.6918602032714.0239033898260.16509094037031614141212WETL
2024-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20254712729.42616.68223.05439.766495533030.3291340360.9091340368.969.869134036TT-2.57453.42646339.7778833320513.5117756797470.18239488641977161413129WETL
2024-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20254712728.65216.59222.62240.0727177560170.3299214381.0199214388.929.939921438TT-3.34852.65246339.9785738030213.6238654311020.158687064521451614141212WETL
2024-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20254712728.7616.2522.50539.2248356013850.2870080291.0070080298.689.687008029TT-3.2451.7646339.4225103276313.3137921670110.16186842266411614141212WETL
2024-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20254712726.85216.14221.49742.8655001568220.0618110570.6718110579.049.711811057TT-5.14854.85246341.8017085886714.6515011931090.11168373456647161413129WETL
2024-11-11 07:00:04FORECAST20254712727.39216.62822.0142.9790868130540.062992160.712992168.929.63299216TT-4.60857.39246341.8755848765414.6935004416730.12460307614407161413129WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20254712726.90617.49222.19943.1649480252880.0704724790.7204724799.049.760472479TT-5.09453.90646341.996422272114.762257792210.11293093914824161413129WETL
2024-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20254712728.9421.32625.13344.1219790350540.153543391.053543399.3710.42354339TT-3.0660.9446342.617732262615.1169723999280.1672621414491614141212WETL
2024-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20254712728.7620.2124.48543.6983563591250.1874016761.0674016769.1710.237401676TT-3.2460.7646342.3429003015714.9598220543940.16186842266411614141212WETL
2024-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20254712726.88818.98622.93744.3689584488490.1834646661.0434646669.4110.453464666TT-5.11254.88846342.777827681915.2086951936050.1125141078911614141212WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20254712725.41216.95221.18240.7736841124290.0846457150.7546457158.939.684645715TT-6.58853.41246340.437382613313.8808862987370.081968087237808161413129WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20254712725.44816.77221.1141.7350401479830.0724409840.9424409848.779.712440984TT-6.55253.44846341.0652992964314.234373959220.08263026976897161413129WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20254712725.8819.63422.75745.3757452336340.0692913760.9692913768.949.909291376TT-6.1252.8846343.4294024350715.5833650706330.090892027384263161413129WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20254712728.23819.45423.84652.7257217345450.1263780211.4063780219.6111.016378021TT-3.76253.23846348.1360282748418.3557233525890.146873128476411614141212WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20254712728.0422.42425.23252.1450003107840.248031631.518031639.5411.05803163TT-3.9656.0446347.7673464781518.1343283901840.141436450339521614151215WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20254712729.13823.82826.48352.6587851463160.2740158961.5640158969.6611.224015896TT-2.86256.13846348.0935600604918.3301839900420.173327125426791614151215WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20254712729.7520.96625.35851.8019394445280.0015748040.91157480410.4411.351574804TT-2.2559.7546347.5492922475118.0037273909940.19294265897834161413129WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:06FORECAST20254712729.69621.95625.82651.2208382437410.0007874020.95078740210.1811.130787402TT-2.30458.69646347.1795025042517.7828251393130.19115934093897161413129WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20254712733.06222.94628.00447.6722065779920.0011811031.10118110310.3511.451181103TT1.06276.06246344.9094117848216.4425927292990.320324842457531624141214WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20254712731.56822.51427.04157.5517969034880.6791342251.7491342259.9311.679134225TT-0.43263.56846351.1790038651720.2109827072180.258703603373691624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:03FORECAST20254712730.90222.71226.80755.9949007040890.5964570151.5764570159.7911.366457015TT-1.09862.90246350.201409971419.609493177780.233354337413651614151215WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:03FORECAST20254712731.4623.61227.53655.948046813380.7728350631.6228350639.8211.442835063TT-0.5468.4646350.1719298848719.591435525930.254498436497721624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20254712732.95421.6527.30251.8034301125130.2307087861.09070878610.311.390708786TT0.95467.95446347.5502401477718.0042945760820.315669753662271624141214WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20254712729.7522.47826.11452.7568209487520.2295276830.96952768310.2711.239527683TT-2.2555.7546348.155756852318.3675909265340.19294265897834161413129WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST20254712729.0321.90225.46651.8934956537180.2295276830.96952768310.1711.139527683TT-2.9755.0346347.6075052293518.0385685618190.17000183817638161413129WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:03FORECAST20254712727.78821.12824.45854.6320690463460.188976480.878976489.9110.78897648TT-4.21246.78846349.3424926588719.0853031797620.13471606105134161413129WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20254712728.25621.12824.69255.1185822344130.1917323870.71173238710.4511.161732387TT-3.74445.25646349.6494562791619.2721823091410.1473742122369161413129WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20254712731.31622.17226.74454.7942813121960.0082677210.97826772110.411.378267721TT-0.68450.31646349.4448820184419.1475811684260.2489476818205161413129WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20254712735.83422.83829.33647.4254245830830.0212598540.7012598549.3410.041259854TT3.83454.83446344.75078092716.3499521608130.447568103910331624131210.5WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20254712734.05222.98228.51745.4652232322790.1019685590.7919685598.929.711968559TT2.05255.05246343.4872304436715.6167236095590.36423846897021624131210.5WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:06FORECAST20254712734.05223.01828.53552.9814666965650.1019685590.8119685599.2510.061968559TT2.05253.05246348.2982203185518.453350560280.36423846897021624131210.5WETL
2024-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20254712732.61224.18828.460.4941903282590.0732283861.9132283869.9711.883228386TT0.61254.61246353.0160441906821.35541976620.301123054017461624151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20254712726.27622.71224.49463.8455637546250.122047312.1020473110.1512.25204731TT-5.72448.27646355.0917687241322.6710341588190.0989879644035661614151215WETL
2024-11-06 15:00:04FORECAST20254712721.70419.9420.82267.8728750291880.1129921871.97299218710.812.772992187TT-10.29640.70446357.5628835926324.2688209131590.0327701804823791614151215WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:04FORECAST20254712736.10434.41235.25857.76591609609601.1910.3811.57TT4.10454.10446351.3131497426420.2939259314890.460497618238211624141214WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:06FORECAST20254712713.80212.05612.92958.97560721317501.0810.2611.34TT-18.19822.80246352.0696534876720.7635215957680.00253557073019951614141212WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:06FORECAST20254712712.7412.39812.56972.96254663010101.5810.2911.87TT-19.2618.7446360.6499084018726.3139357589130.0016856870572581614151215WETL