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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 15, 2024

[ Thursday, November 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 16, 2024 ]

DAY 46 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/16/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.173
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 70

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.71 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 47 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 345.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.05 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 126

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-16 07:00:03OBSERVATION20254612629.0100222.7325.8700146.5140145833330.269999999999982.715.818.52TT-2.9899870.0100247345.1264332317 16.0532159484330.1728957331717816 14151215WETL
2024-11-16 03:00:02OBSERVATION20254612629.0100222.7325.8700146.5140145833330.269999999999982.715.818.52TT-2.9899870.0100247345.1264332317 16.0532159484330.1728957331717816 14151215WETL
2024-11-15 11:00:01FORECAST20254612625.21417.0621.13743.1136942546820.0094488242.4494488245.818.259448824TT-6.78666.21447342.9338200778614.7851438684270.086590805505871614151215WETL
2024-11-15 07:00:03FORECAST20254612625.3417.8721.60543.37101392786302.445.818.25TT-6.6666.3447343.1004094789714.8806126381680.0888092349220911614151215WETL
2024-11-15 03:00:03FORECAST20254612626.20417.7821.99243.3364058713110.0043307112.4443307115.818.254330711TT-5.79667.20447343.0780104731614.8677679073870.10516756244581614151215WETL
2024-11-14 23:00:01FORECAST20254612625.44818.10421.77634.0442999154530.0047244121.9847244125.817.794724412TT-6.55265.44847336.9921786003311.4726627974320.0907440832837081614151215WETL
2024-11-14 19:00:01FORECAST20254612625.57418.0521.81234.0584964751540.007874021.987874025.817.79787402TT-6.42665.57447337.001586574111.4777673484550.0930406050912781614151215WETL
2024-11-14 15:00:01FORECAST20254612627.0519.41823.23434.0691120119230.0141732361.9941732365.817.804173236TT-4.9567.0547337.0086212040911.4815844647860.123189419284641614151215WETL
2024-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20254612626.20419.02222.61336.8671760057580.0129921331.9929921335.817.802992133TT-5.79666.20447338.8562244569212.49267206770.10516756244581614151215WETL
2024-11-14 07:00:03FORECAST20254612626.20419.02222.61336.7454686836860.0129921332.0029921335.817.812992133TT-5.79666.20447338.7761321663112.4484877552970.10516756244581614151215WETL
2024-11-14 03:00:03FORECAST20254612625.82618.87822.35236.8061829068420.0129921332.0029921335.817.812992133TT-6.17465.82647338.8160896462412.47052696730.0977615743875741614151215WETL
2024-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20254612625.5219.70622.61335.4283610518880.0220472563.1720472565.818.982047256TT-6.4864.5247337.9077936624711.9715193161210.0920511926319821614151215WETL
2024-11-13 19:00:01FORECAST20254612625.5219.59822.55935.3280533374310.0188976483.1488976485.818.958897648TT-6.4863.5247337.8415439942911.935284085830.0920511926319821614151215WETL
2024-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20254612625.5218.19421.85735.0926119790010.0232283593.0832283595.818.893228359TT-6.4863.5247337.6859770517411.8502829634260.0920511926319821614151215WETL
2024-11-13 11:00:01FORECAST20254612627.33819.50823.42342.1885057743910.0283464723.0783464725.818.888346472TT-4.66266.33847342.3339504112214.4425578436940.129790357165091614151215WETL
2024-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20254612627.37419.6723.52242.1347520744040.0216535552.9516535555.818.761653555TT-4.62665.37447342.2990544723114.4226857954930.130632329034861614151215WETL
2024-11-13 03:00:03FORECAST20254612627.9520.5724.2642.0894358448550.0303149772.9303149775.818.740314977TT-4.0565.9547342.269632286414.405935729760.144616961571091614151215WETL
2024-11-12 23:00:02FORECAST20254612628.9420.37224.65635.8685759012930.0271653693.1671653696.359.517165369TT-3.0667.9447338.1983403675212.1306928411640.170925932148721614151215WETL
2024-11-12 19:00:01FORECAST20254612628.14820.15624.15235.9622312932680.0440945123.1240945126.359.474094512TT-3.85266.14847338.2601120702112.1645883875560.149648327658561614151215WETL
2024-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20254612627.48220.46223.97235.2079576395340.0421260072.9421260076.359.292126007TT-4.51864.48247337.7622028631811.8919173306430.133180803871011614151215WETL
2024-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20254612628.41821.68625.05239.2076381252030.027559073.027559076.359.37755907TT-3.58265.41847340.3916128125413.3459511760080.156694866603491614151215WETL
2024-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20254612629.3921.68625.53839.0557263309480.0334645852.9834645856.339.313464585TT-2.6165.3947340.2922324952513.2903603048820.183835502748821614151215WETL
2024-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20254612625.73618.15821.94739.5473237131350.0153543392.9753543396.349.315354339TT-6.26458.73647340.6136955873613.4703600805210.0960558198635371614151215WETL
2024-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20254612625.59219.02222.30738.1105977429820.0228346582.7728346586.959.722834658TT-6.40855.59247339.6730695405712.9451437173850.0933721440463421614151215WETL
2024-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20254612625.64619.05822.35238.392951961060.0192913492.7592913497.039.789291349TT-6.35455.64647339.8581982634713.0481594795020.0943719787846771614151215WETL
2024-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20254612625.0717.76221.41637.7255310729230.0212598542.7212598546.869.581259854TT-6.9355.0747339.4203821438712.8048141733520.0841063119035721614151215WETL
2024-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20254612627.39219.4923.44142.4801610983380.0122047312.9222047316.919.832204731TT-4.60860.39247342.5232047877314.5504409193020.131054723872031614151215WETL
2024-11-11 07:00:03FORECAST20254612627.51819.77823.64842.5909718471660.0043307112.9543307116.89.754330711TT-4.48261.51847342.5950728478314.591457102640.134037826117921614151215WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20254612627.4119.3123.3642.72534056026902.946.939.87TT-4.5959.4147342.6821926661914.6412133856030.131478058545641614151215WETL
2024-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20254612627.89622.2825.08843.2023958549380.0027559073.1927559077.2610.452755907TT-4.10463.89647342.9912580139314.8180441035010.143264725782841614151215WETL
2024-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20254612628.07621.4724.77342.5927315453490.0401575023.1401575027.0910.230157502TT-3.92464.07647342.596213964714.5921085698520.147805427946151614151215WETL
2024-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20254612627.1419.29223.21643.2753940236020.0456693163.2156693167.2310.445669316TT-4.8660.1447343.0385176256714.8451270155230.12522651941031614151215WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20254612627.93221.50624.71940.2224100318570.0523622332.6823622337.19.782362233TT-4.06859.93247341.054491337713.7180335937910.144165266877021614151215WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20254612626.63621.223.91841.2404828608890.0610236552.9110236556.919.821023655TT-5.36459.63647341.7178114081514.0926075446380.114117329593041614151215WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20254612627.06822.67624.87244.9086963837580.062992163.052992166.9710.02299216TT-4.93259.06847344.0936427587615.4527969302340.123594975792131614151215WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20254612626.54621.93824.24251.5708964560470.3724411463.7924411467.2811.072441146TT-5.45456.54647348.3524158571117.9648463683810.112209575139481614151215WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20254612627.521.97424.73750.4664034579630.1779528523.6379528527.3510.987952852TT-4.560.547347.6513490854617.5447132456520.133608843870221614151215WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20254612627.46422.8225.14250.8810980326820.1956693973.6656693977.4611.125669397TT-4.53659.46447347.9148032747417.7022872124430.132753705734491614151215WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20254612629.1223.82826.47451.7857863201810.0429134093.7029134097.8311.532913409TT-2.8862.1247348.4885868172818.0467554919410.176018693968471614151215WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:06FORECAST20254612629.01224.0826.54651.2084472081640.1055118683.6255118687.6811.305511868TT-2.98861.01247348.1225713046417.8268163146240.172951643468021614151215WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20254612631.8224.51228.16647.6735471293270.1232284133.5332284138.111.633228413TT-0.1874.8247345.8698099038316.4888406830620.263461719098871624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20254612631.17221.72226.44752.6813606953780.1905512843.2705512847.9111.180551284TT-0.82864.17247349.0552928482518.388707785170.240653218501621614151215WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:03FORECAST20254612631.67621.41626.54651.6167392661290.133858343.193858347.7610.95385834TT-0.32463.67647348.381471670217.9823155883510.258299637866381624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20254612631.49623.0927.29350.5711015689310.1460630713.0860630717.7610.846063071TT-0.50469.49647347.7178896623917.5844767154510.251921435544221624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20254612631.53221.63226.58250.1354871851860.2366143013.0066143018.3311.336614301TT-0.46866.53247347.4409198309717.4191197837950.253190401273551624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20254612629.69623.01826.35751.1010744271990.0468504192.8968504198.2911.186850419TT-2.30457.69647348.0544409998417.785955894250.192950964807531614151215WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST20254612629.04822.3725.70950.1343061592040.0468504192.8968504198.1911.086850419TT-2.95258.04847347.4401685011917.4186717796440.173970197700741614151215WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20254612628.86821.09224.9852.8935237859140.1212599082.8012599087.9810.781259908TT-3.13250.86847349.1893577034418.4698555974750.168915428017491614151215WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20254612629.19221.39825.29553.3934325619520.0200787512.6100787518.5411.150078751TT-2.80849.19247349.5049621760118.6612696280120.178082360040941614151215WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20254612630.95622.58626.77154.5578988078630.0539370372.8139370378.7411.553937037TT-1.04450.95647350.2385657338319.1082802279170.233296006243371614151215WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20254612631.06424.38627.72547.2862454590850.0559055421.8959055428.310.195905542TT-0.93651.06447345.621754159416.3431551031810.236958942734841614151215WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20254612632.4524.72828.58944.7294942038110.0614173561.9114173567.889.791417356TT0.4553.4547343.9780905252515.3859660063870.286647317585321624151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20254612632.39624.76428.5852.1966685557990.0618110572.0118110578.1310.141811057TT0.39651.39647348.7487469831318.2035227555290.284622669152881624151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20254612631.24424.87228.05859.8532947033410.7586618273.4386618278.5511.988661827TT-0.75654.24447353.5473855019821.1609758560460.243133352233261614151215WETL
2024-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20254612630.7423.07226.90662.5227183447330.8177169773.7577169778.5512.307716977TT-1.2653.7447355.1985742097722.2079804117680.2260651322281614151215WETL
2024-11-06 15:00:03FORECAST20254612629.13819.8524.49466.4457851517020.7358271694.0358271698.812.835827169TT-2.86251.13847357.604984975323.7613440008460.176533189005091614151215WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20254612633.1719.05826.11457.9113512960960.0326771833.4126771838.3411.752677183TT1.1750.1747352.3391299396520.4044351292960.314272038742051624151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:06FORECAST20254612624.92612.79418.8658.9756072131750.1602363073.1602363078.3611.520236307TT-7.07440.92647353.0020361553920.8185094297510.0816755422357851614151215WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:05FORECAST20254612626.70813.02819.86872.9625466301010.2807088133.9507088138.112.050708813TT-5.29237.70847361.5497479719626.3795903455050.115660029970751614151215WETL
2024-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20254612622.51417.67220.09380.2827087468570.0507874294.4507874298.4712.920787429TT-9.48623.51447365.9036562610729.3757366650170.0483840466826411614151215WETL
2024-11-05 19:00:03FORECAST20254612627.98622.26225.12478.80092972130.251968644.201968648.8913.09196864TT-4.01431.98647365.0288420333728.7646121273190.145523200338351614151215WETL
2024-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20254612627.9526.49227.22162.5840151820020.2779529062.3279529069.6812.007952906TT-4.0543.9547355.23635841622.2321176483060.144616961571091614151215WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20254612623.32420.71422.01960.5830464103880.2673229792.7973229798.4711.267322979TT-8.67647.32447353.999890511121.4463917961060.0580824363697971614151215WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:05FORECAST20254612629.51627.69828.60750.81636854238202.118.1710.28TT-2.48455.51647347.8736991033117.6776780998350.187556039756981614151215WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:05FORECAST20254612628.70628.16628.43649.21235203085202.078.1810.25TT-3.29452.70647346.8529635338517.0694501443720.16444745106551614151215WETL