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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 14, 2024

[ Wednesday, November 13, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, November 15, 2024 ]

DAY 45 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/15/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.252
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 73

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.29 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.99 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 43 in
SWE DAY: 48
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-15 07:00:03OBSERVATION20254512531.1599427.1999429.1799443.2955170833331.292.996.169.15TT-0.8400673.1599448344.01813037428 14.8944428405960.2521871451265416 24151217.5WETL
2024-11-15 03:00:03OBSERVATION20254512531.1599427.1999429.1799443.2955170833331.292.996.169.15TT-0.8400673.1599448344.01813037428 14.8944428405960.2521871451265416 24151217.5WETL
2024-11-14 11:00:01FORECAST20254512529.69624.31427.00536.8106347851160.8311028112.5311028116.168.691102811TT-2.30471.69648339.801658820312.5083147622110.20768882749641614151215WETL
2024-11-14 07:00:03FORECAST20254512529.69624.31427.00536.6889274630440.8440949442.5440949446.168.704094944TT-2.30471.69648339.7218588432312.464030636710.20768882749641614151215WETL
2024-11-14 03:00:03FORECAST20254512530.16424.31427.23936.748915025050.8362209242.5362209246.168.696220924TT-1.83672.16448339.7611940386612.4858552485360.221386256794251614151215WETL
2024-11-13 23:00:01FORECAST20254512529.60624.18826.89735.3216367047160.9035437953.7035437956.169.863543795TT-2.39470.60648338.8236684254611.9678065230830.205113191068911614151215WETL
2024-11-13 19:00:01FORECAST20254512529.08424.1726.62735.2372032836930.8842524463.6842524466.169.844252446TT-2.91670.08448338.7681007266311.9372404313350.190551934073711614151215WETL
2024-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20254512529.42624.20626.81634.9809163590980.8137799673.6137799676.169.773779967TT-2.57470.42648338.5993590312811.8445158575170.200019105144891614151215WETL
2024-11-13 11:00:01FORECAST20254512529.9324.49427.21242.0550972909610.8015752363.6015752366.169.761575236TT-2.0770.9348343.2169719016714.4340231452340.214474086839441614151215WETL
2024-11-13 07:00:03FORECAST20254512529.8424.11626.97842.0268710554110.7456696943.4756696946.169.635669694TT-2.1669.8448343.1987118395214.4235680088630.211849276656881614151215WETL
2024-11-13 03:00:03FORECAST20254512530.21825.10627.66241.9461315125240.7460633953.4460633956.169.606063395TT-1.78270.21848343.1464727405814.3936670736350.222999241674561614151215WETL
2024-11-12 23:00:01FORECAST20254512530.90224.8927.89635.7369254310340.7925201134.2325201136.1610.392520113TT-1.09870.90248339.0968067010412.1182772949770.24399969654441614151215WETL
2024-11-12 19:00:01FORECAST20254512530.23624.65627.44635.7531802372120.8177169774.1677169776.1610.327716977TT-1.76470.23648339.1074917416512.1241712720280.223538384343221614151215WETL
2024-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20254512529.51625.41227.46435.0070588484980.7251972423.9851972426.1610.145197242TT-2.48468.51648338.6165765208511.8539704213420.202556595167271614151215WETL
2024-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20254512529.6625.14227.40139.0682828877380.6779531224.0879531226.1610.247953122TT-2.3468.6648341.2774691981513.3331247098450.206656292393941614151215WETL
2024-11-12 07:00:03FORECAST20254512529.6625.32227.49138.8924945606880.6881893484.0181893486.1610.178189348TT-2.3467.6648341.162861050413.2686747177110.206656292393941614151215WETL
2024-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20254512528.07623.41425.74539.45127012980.6480318464.0380318466.1610.198031846TT-3.92465.07648341.5269870290713.47367342190.164283089568171614151215WETL
2024-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20254512528.18423.68425.93437.9798196962470.5645672343.9745672346.6310.604567234TT-3.81662.18448340.5670041261712.9346734112030.166979994544621614151215WETL
2024-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20254512527.93223.41425.67338.2751038201120.6724413084.0424413086.6310.672441308TT-4.06861.93248340.7599370896713.0426219698420.160731293130611614151215WETL
2024-11-11 15:00:01FORECAST20254512527.80622.56825.18737.59966522210.7019688833.8319688836.6310.461968883TT-4.19461.80648340.3184053470412.7958581099670.157664810452781614151215WETL
2024-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20254512528.88622.76625.82642.4046038369310.6003940254.0903940256.6310.720394025TT-3.11464.88648343.4429655733614.5635628957190.185198599589291614151215WETL
2024-11-11 07:00:03FORECAST20254512529.67823.23426.45642.5661727993050.645669644.115669646.5310.64566964TT-2.32265.67848343.5473695408814.6234966966240.207172180226181614151215WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20254512528.68822.6425.66442.7242189723550.6452759394.1652759396.610.765275939TT-3.31263.68848343.6494556769414.6821545940720.179939465732821614151215WETL
2024-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20254512529.91225.19627.55443.1856498313340.8988193834.4188193836.9311.348819383TT-2.08867.91248343.947271497214.8535864273210.213947620205441614151215WETL
2024-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20254512529.8424.67427.25742.3749639901560.8437012434.3037012436.7911.093701243TT-2.1667.8448343.4238080007514.5525714973940.211849276656881614151215WETL
2024-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20254512529.71423.5426.62743.0162408567490.8051185454.3351185456.9611.295118545TT-2.28664.71448343.8379724300814.7906170377490.20820623364161614151215WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20254512528.95824.22426.59139.9292009099920.6165357663.5065357667.1210.626535766TT-3.04263.95848341.8380207295313.6493190083840.18713438960051614151215WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20254512529.324.74627.02340.9073337841980.8055122463.655512246710.655512246TT-2.765.348342.4734062135814.009673940190.196498833940131614151215WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20254512529.37226.00627.68944.5658103557380.8433075423.8433075427.0210.863307542TT-2.62864.37248344.8359715188415.3678945105450.198505807802021614151215WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20254512528.7624.06226.41149.19759496280.9145674234.5445674237.0611.604567423TT-3.2461.7648347.7957575367117.1107148090710.181840953471431614151215WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20254512529.87624.85427.36549.3590767808521.0862210594.7662210596.9411.706221059TT-2.12464.87648347.8983202124717.1719398992970.212896942577891614151215WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20254512529.87626.0627.96849.6994234196441.0921265744.7821265747.0511.832126574TT-2.12463.87648348.1143483907317.3010823991240.212896942577891614151215WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20254512530.39826.74428.57151.5423426657480.8673233035.0573233037.3312.387323303TT-1.60265.39848349.2808663699318.0027541010280.228423846453621614151215WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20254512530.41626.83428.62550.6152772891750.8358272234.8258272237.2712.095827223TT-1.58464.41648348.6947416288117.6492810368190.228970347993071614151215WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20254512532.10826.99629.55246.9986106217350.9751973774.8551973777.5512.405197377TT0.10875.10848346.3949117277516.2800795776430.283478841853781624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20254512531.13624.4427.78851.3981118617410.8814965394.5214965397.3711.891496539TT-0.86465.13648349.1897689990217.9476948079870.251421206629721624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:03FORECAST20254512531.124.56627.83350.7717547763440.8484256554.4384256557.2811.718425655TT-0.964.148348.7937692801517.7088717214090.250271734696061624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20254512531.9126.54629.22849.6471503293750.7015751824.2915751827.3111.601575182TT-0.0969.9148348.0811812364117.2812387316710.276792878352631624151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20254512530.86628.11229.48948.7458860631220.6161420654.4661420657.5311.996142065TT-1.13466.86648347.5086381034116.939616478940.242868491461891614151215WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20254512530.90227.9529.42650.8112541815620.6940948634.5340948637.5112.044094863TT-1.09859.90248348.8187604782617.7239187019580.24399969654441614151215WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST20254512530.84827.33829.09349.8312545253980.6940948634.5340948637.4111.944094863TT-1.15260.84848348.1979753660317.3511419356930.242303953221361614151215WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20254512531.33428.18429.75952.0828546070880.5677168424.2777168427.2811.557716842TT-0.66654.33448349.6219614624318.2093097862920.25779277392111624151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20254512530.12827.64428.88653.2537887481920.503937284.323937287.7112.03393728TT-1.87252.12848350.3592862221218.657959414440.220314643381191614151215WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20254512532.9929.98431.48754.2084710879260.9240162474.404016247812.404016247TT0.9951.9948350.9588188065519.0249409823280.314163345310311624151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20254512534.77229.1231.94646.787604778880.6248034873.1648034877.8811.044803487TT2.77251.77248346.2600802296216.2006797844870.380039274352681624151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20254512535.94229.62432.78344.2217943080590.6334649093.1334649097.510.633464909TT3.94252.94248344.6147473392915.2394824723620.425419501523461624151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20254512535.79829.53432.66651.6651956454440.6503940523.3503940527.6310.980394052TT3.79850.79848349.3584350142818.0496718953990.419767401252511624151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20254512534.21430.30832.26154.4914008785831.078740744.088740748.0412.12874074TT2.21455.21448351.1362172783619.1339043787040.358924411380771624151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20254512533.81829.8431.82956.6098674659141.1551187344.385118734812.385118734TT1.81854.81848352.460463765619.9527401407450.344192586869091624151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 15:00:03FORECAST20254512531.69427.33829.51659.7866560982521.1188982424.9588982428.0412.998898242TT-0.30653.69448354.4329571987321.1903613219270.269588226080311624151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20254512529.2124.09826.65457.475488606641.157480944.807480947.8112.61748094TT-2.7949.2148352.9995133846520.2888195096890.194007443308921614151215WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20254512526.8720.94823.90956.8120567720680.9188981344.4188981347.8412.258898134TT-5.1347.8748352.5864795382620.0311630925910.136091552404951614151215WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:05FORECAST20254512527.30220.67823.9969.7510314679621.2972447954.9372447957.7312.667244795TT-4.69843.30248360.517664298425.1464789472340.145784600763951614151215WETL
2024-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20254512527.46422.8225.14279.6891740972631.9035443355.0735443358.713.773544335TT-4.53633.46448366.4348806531829.2008929996810.149535978661291614151215WETL
2024-11-05 19:00:03FORECAST20254512529.324.02626.66376.1655059478871.4425204644.7925204648.9513.742520464TT-2.736.348364.3539423006827.7512023594380.196498833940131614151215WETL
2024-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20254512535.16827.75231.4659.8227670754350.7826775882.54267758810.0912.632677588TT3.16848.16848354.4552874300121.2044960985820.39524823197221624151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20254512534.93422.20828.57157.3424148540081.3259849683.0159849688.8811.895984968TT2.93455.93448352.9167212332520.2370970378730.386240203880041624151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:04FORECAST20254512536.55429.1232.83750.8163685423820.9870084072.4470084078.7311.177008407TT4.55457.55448348.8219961412317.7258671116020.449598494748211624151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:05FORECAST20254512536.55429.26432.90949.2123520308520.9822839952.4022839958.7511.152283995TT4.55455.55448347.8051320065517.1163085944430.449598494748211624151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20254512536.66224.33230.49746.4091168973750.0779527980.5179527989.29.717952798TT4.66240.66248346.0180475513416.0583920174120.453887523353841624131210.5WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:04FORECAST20254512537.61622.3729.99349.8266001031230.3452757771.5852757779.210.785275777TT5.61642.61648348.1950233131717.3493741845230.491951073818391624151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:03FORECAST20254512535.76222.3729.06653.9940680530640.5192916192.5792916199.3811.959291619TT3.76246.76248350.8243020378118.9424312388980.418356910265061624151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:03FORECAST20254512534.01632.70233.35953.7145848721190.3996065151.5696065158.5410.109606515TT2.01647.01648350.6488438723318.8349570844910.351530638805111624151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:06FORECAST20254512524.51220.8422.67652.5030657294390.0023622061.3723622068.6410.012362206TT-7.48836.51248349.8868162435318.3701305110980.090961209827141614141212WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:06FORECAST20254512524.76423.37824.07154.2863195741390.0031496081.2831496088.8710.153149608TT-7.23636.76448351.00764293219.0549130771720.0951756614845731614141212WETL