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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 13, 2024

[ Tuesday, November 12, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 14, 2024 ]

DAY 44 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/14/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.293
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 84

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 34 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-14 07:00:03OBSERVATION20254412433.0900830.6531.8700433.8319533333331.152.876.038.9TT1.0900884.0900849338.82786652564 11.4632085683280.2930568045364316 25151220WETL
2024-11-14 03:00:03OBSERVATION20254412433.0900830.6531.8700433.8319533333331.152.876.038.9TT1.0900884.0900849338.82786652564 11.4632085683280.2930568045364316 25151220WETL
2024-11-13 11:00:01FORECAST20254412431.58627.48229.53439.1550282005352.2476390093.9676390096.039.997639009TT-0.41482.58649342.3071061229813.4030443934890.236413217744791615151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 07:00:03FORECAST20254412431.33428.45429.89439.3645624461472.1846468493.9046468496.039.934646849TT-0.66682.33449342.4431008095113.4801228260680.227548428500551615151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 03:00:03FORECAST20254412431.47828.88630.18239.2445792048062.1468515533.8668515536.039.896851553TT-0.52282.47849342.3652365564113.435979643010.232590971059241615151217.5WETL
2024-11-12 23:00:01FORECAST20254412433.06228.77830.9232.7175998722942.3456705584.6056705586.0310.635670558TT1.06282.06249338.0935350301211.0616089985250.291944231812431625151220WETL
2024-11-12 19:00:01FORECAST20254412432.52228.32830.42532.5976316316692.259843744.519843746.0310.54984374TT0.52281.52249338.0143549146311.0184674277230.270940899190081625151220WETL
2024-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20254412431.60428.52630.06532.2142080711812.1748043244.4348043246.0310.464804324TT-0.39680.60449337.7611300777710.8807073226820.237053598056871615151217.5WETL
2024-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20254412431.9128.45430.18236.4685132232722.3224421994.5824421996.0310.612442199TT-0.0980.9149340.5570404007712.4196089311340.248084364378291615151217.5WETL
2024-11-12 07:00:03FORECAST20254412432.07228.43630.25436.2592676475052.2625996474.5025996476.0310.532599647TT0.07200000000000380.07249340.4202304434512.3433882482740.254033005239381625151220WETL
2024-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20254412431.22628.09429.6636.8828981466162.3125996744.5625996746.0310.592599674TT-0.77479.22649340.8277610720912.5707155971610.223807205596721615151217.5WETL
2024-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20254412430.84827.78829.31835.5956275908662.1870090555.0470090556.0311.077009055TT-1.15275.84849339.9858447584312.1020095161870.210991264584011615151217.5WETL
2024-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20254412430.86627.7729.31835.4164058037772.0673239515.0073239516.0311.037323951TT-1.13475.86649339.8684094878412.0369175103060.211591639473011615151217.5WETL
2024-11-11 15:00:01FORECAST20254412430.8327.91429.37234.5867060692142.0003947814.7703947816.0310.800394781TT-1.1775.8349339.324050683211.7361012031950.210391887597281615151217.5WETL
2024-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20254412431.67628.16629.92139.8896695997852.3063004585.1263004586.0311.156300458TT-0.32477.67649342.7835949910313.6735243484190.239624611063731615151217.5WETL
2024-11-11 07:00:03FORECAST20254412431.69428.38230.03839.8911873606522.2960642325.0060642326.0311.036064232TT-0.30677.69449342.7845784916113.6740838449510.24026973044731615151217.5WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20254412431.9128.32830.11939.9882506810052.2948831295.1348831296.0311.164883129TT-0.0976.9149342.8474671076913.709870460050.248084364378291615151217.5WETL
2024-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20254412432.91829.44431.18139.2776283737872.2866154085.2066154086.2811.486615408TT0.91879.91849342.386686493513.4481370322240.286269842978241625151220WETL
2024-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20254412432.9929.73231.36138.7118923987222.255906735.005906736.2811.28590673TT0.9979.9949342.0192577579713.2402127046170.289100497149441625151220WETL
2024-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20254412432.41428.72430.56939.4708055562652.3574815885.2474815886.2811.527481588TT0.41477.41449342.5120284688613.5192256763760.266832417993731625151220WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20254412432.34229.13830.7437.205976598512.0055128944.7655128946.2811.045512894TT0.34277.34249341.0386329699712.6886753974690.264111005076761625151220WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20254412432.21629.42630.82137.2908804203882.0366152734.6866152736.210.886615273TT0.21678.21649341.0940206172812.7196963349480.259382749942231625151220WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:03FORECAST20254412431.67629.1230.39840.7337096585312.1460641514.8560641516.211.056064151TT-0.32476.67649343.3299434363113.9851022330140.239624611063731615151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20254412432.21628.7630.48844.79706421382.5082690715.3582690716.3711.728269071TT0.21675.21649345.9438287156715.4972679093440.259382749942231625151220WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20254412432.61229.53431.07344.1970748737972.3744107315.2844107316.3811.664410731TT0.61276.61249345.5595616007315.2727218174240.274388547473331625151220WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20254412432.73829.67831.20844.5338529410942.3811036485.3711036486.4111.781103648TT0.73875.73849345.775325425515.3987074931580.279251304472441625151220WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20254412433.22430.36231.79347.5793389205782.7862219776.1662219776.3912.556221977TT1.22477.22449347.7181205486416.544198306410.298389752637681625151220WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20254412433.2630.43431.84746.7892680337662.6759856975.8559856976.4412.295985697TT1.2676.2649347.2155564443116.2459617359660.299830830491261625151220WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20254412434.68230.43432.55842.6132913152372.4318910775.8818910776.5912.471891077TT2.68284.68249344.5423993478514.6820856338610.35906601572071625151220WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20254412434.0729.87631.97346.9903606856322.1956704775.4756704776.5712.045670477TT2.0776.0749347.3435671799916.3217995036220.333049571503861625151220WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:03FORECAST20254412434.05229.73231.89246.5397883405732.2074815075.3174815076.5911.907481507TT2.05275.05249347.0566527804316.1519431625890.332295671707461625151220WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20254412434.64629.4832.06346.2310332686922.2425208965.3525208966.5911.942520896TT2.64679.64649346.859854766816.0356894852980.357515966465341625151220WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20254412434.26830.48832.37845.7120594718662.1503948625.5403948626.8812.420394862TT2.26878.26849346.5287170893815.8405413242990.341386427045331625151220WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20254412433.13430.75831.94647.3877985896222.1649617995.5749617996.8212.394961799TT1.13471.13449347.5963743387516.4718269776470.294800911087411625151220WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST20254412433.76430.79432.27946.3630235166852.1649617995.5749617996.7212.294961799TT1.76471.76449346.9440031820216.0853729785010.320327184444081625151220WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20254412432.7229.89431.30749.0668305651982.114174375.334174376.712.03417437TT0.7264.7249348.6615814971717.1077187439160.278554071079481625151220WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20254412431.67630.23630.95650.4928712863192.0940956195.7240956196.8512.574095619TT-0.32463.67649349.5627257755117.6504257190780.239624611063731615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20254412432.14427.73429.93949.4991932716271.8377962685.4577962687.0612.517796268TT0.14461.14449348.9351452044917.272008191740.256700631823321625151220WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20254412431.76626.02428.89545.8963758859461.2196856984.6796856986.7811.459685698TT-0.23458.76649346.6463724540615.9098122096510.242859630901151615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20254412431.96426.18629.07543.957335244991.2212605024.4312605026.6111.041260502TT-0.03600000000000158.96449345.4058549588115.1831209620070.250058963684851625151220WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20254412431.51426.29428.90450.8070748898261.2964573934.6964573936.6711.366457393TT-0.48656.51449349.7608390149417.7703251413610.233861228340151615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20254412433.31428.00430.65950.6605231321751.5992134624.8592134627.2312.089213462TT1.31463.31449349.668454136617.7143868093790.3019983285411625151220WETL
2024-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20254412432.32427.64429.98451.6993617738911.7759852115.1459852117.1212.265985211TT0.32463.32449350.3225869489618.111454160240.263432865040421625151220WETL
2024-11-06 15:00:03FORECAST20254412434.73629.8432.28853.5920612190042.1751980255.7651980257.1512.915198025TT2.73663.73649351.5099482342818.838142664860.361395437175291625151220WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20254412431.62227.98629.80449.6719251020482.2185051355.3785051357.1212.498505135TT-0.37861.62249349.0443518000517.3377048999050.23769492889621615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST2025441243227.33829.66949.9087645277282.0803160845.3703160847.0112.380316084TT06349349.1940114051517.4278416897130.251379974143121625151220WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:05FORECAST20254412431.98228.05830.0259.1906112083272.3696863195.1496863197.2612.409686319TT-0.01800000000000157.98249354.9888983574521.0120098659480.250719008851111625151220WETL
2024-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20254412430.57826.74428.66163.1592649974432.4996076494.4596076498.4512.909607649TT-1.42247.57849357.4252344916422.574715102030.202105880933681615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 19:00:03FORECAST20254412430.07425.93428.00464.3977808026162.5070879684.7270879688.6113.337087968TT-1.92649.07449358.18053860623.0660318129120.186129854502441615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 15:00:02FORECAST20254412435.88823.46829.67855.7025874456231.2748038383.5748038389.3212.894803838TT3.88854.88849352.8272464075719.6533905462160.41218389789921625151220WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20254412437.5825.50231.54148.0304759092191.2035439573.3535439578.2611.613543957TT5.5862.5849348.0046367608116.7148283222370.489277250884561625151220WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:04FORECAST20254412438.35425.62831.99146.162762493351.1192919433.1192919438.1111.229291943TT6.35463.35449346.8163186805616.0099993480680.524855383870671635151222.5WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:05FORECAST20254412438.44425.5231.98244.5410394828641.0862210593.0762210598.1311.206221059TT6.44461.44449345.7799276209315.4013974085460.528984953088171635151222.5WETL
2024-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20254412440.20826.22233.21545.6793945871940.2196851581.7796851588.910.679685158TT8.20846.20849346.5078602486915.8282692758640.608752189352391635151222.5WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:03FORECAST20254412440.31626.1533.23347.3767435001550.9181107322.5981107328.8811.478110732TT8.31647.31649347.5893457324716.4676512761540.613524996488821635151222.5WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:03FORECAST20254412439.84827.24833.54849.5765340149061.5956701533.3956701539.0812.475670153TT7.84852.84849348.984048423317.3014195473170.592728064017671635151222.5WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:03FORECAST20254412439.57828.6734.12450.7215723810320.5169294132.4669294138.2810.746929413TT7.57854.57849349.7069431998917.7376860316630.580605699193041635151222.5WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:06FORECAST20254412438.19226.09632.14452.4783038982950.5350396592.8450396598.211.045039659TT6.19254.19249350.8119378250318.4100154843320.51741572407611635151222.5WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:06FORECAST20254412438.19226.16832.1854.2520996082290.4748034062.7748034068.4211.194803406TT6.19254.19249351.9226744782819.092543990190.51741572407611635151222.5WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20254412430.59628.20229.39951.2024353511010.1480315762.2180315767.9610.178031576TT-1.40446.59649350.0098991483717.921359233390.202691196291481615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:04FORECAST20254412429.26426.02427.64450.2701119779670.1539370912.0539370917.719.763937091TT-2.73636.26449349.4221746405517.5654918467650.16214515557351615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:04FORECAST20254412435.22227.03231.12741.4761299197050.2417324141.8317324146.047.871732414TT3.22259.22249343.8095459280114.2598893945450.382582234600041625151220WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20254412435.25832.34233.842.7761266151760.0637795621.6537795626.768.413779562TT3.25871.25849344.6471668050314.7426708448140.384166591754061625151220WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:05FORECAST20254412430.68628.45429.5752.4520034536230.7748035682.5948035686.639.224803568TT-1.31457.68649350.7954310178818.3999231592650.20563290329721615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20254412429.67829.06629.37249.2318202258630.1523622872.1023622876.888.982362287TT-2.32249.67849348.7660088899717.1703854505630.174141852911711615151217.5WETL