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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 12, 2024

[ Monday, November 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 13, 2024 ]

DAY 43 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/13/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.219
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 95

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.55 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 32 in
SWE DAY: 50
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 10.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-13 07:00:03OBSERVATION20254312332.1299627.2899429.7099532.4195545833330.549999999999952.117.359.46TT0.1299695.1299650338.88291536351 10.9864331719860.2193140776679616 15151217.5WETL
2024-11-13 03:00:02OBSERVATION20254312332.1299627.2899429.7099532.4195545833330.549999999999952.117.359.46TT0.1299695.1299650338.88291536351 10.9864331719860.2193140776679616 15151217.5WETL
2024-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20254312329.80424.90827.35628.7559788906281.0881895642.6481895647.359.998189564TT-2.19692.80450336.46138720769.67527654805320.147953998896071615152235WETL
2024-11-12 07:00:03FORECAST20254312329.324.56626.93328.7315078589891.0704730192.6304730197.359.980473019TT-2.792.350336.445136614259.66657608675090.134810157395951615152235WETL
2024-11-12 03:00:03FORECAST20254312328.95824.5326.74428.8733416185661.0803155442.6403155447.359.990315544TT-3.04291.95850336.539310790379.71701448852720.126359936405991615152235WETL
2024-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20254312329.33623.68426.5127.5761106985151.2236227083.2536227087.3510.603622708TT-2.66489.33650335.676715734869.25665827201850.135721630306531615152235WETL
2024-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20254312329.01223.8126.41127.8545931583571.2964573933.3264573937.3510.676457393TT-2.98889.01250335.862132596729.35530306077980.127669137473791615152235WETL
2024-11-11 15:00:01FORECAST20254312329.35423.84626.627.2590765897451.1322840763.1622840767.3510.512284076TT-2.64689.35450335.465471030049.14447896802290.136178941482221615152235WETL
2024-11-11 11:00:01FORECAST20254312330.225.59227.89631.6702236634821.1783470933.2083470937.3510.558347093TT-1.890.250338.3894585580410.7168698378980.158862621187951615151217.5WETL
2024-11-11 07:00:03FORECAST20254312330.41625.71828.06731.757100914591.1744100833.1044100837.3510.454410083TT-1.58490.41650338.4467179688210.7480865767480.165028929295611615151217.5WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20254312330.61425.68228.14831.7085320477861.2259849143.2259849147.3510.575984914TT-1.38688.61450338.4147085606310.7306336318370.170815338548361615151217.5WETL
2024-11-10 23:00:01FORECAST20254312331.78426.52829.15630.8586282265711.2267723163.5567723167.3510.906772316TT-0.21690.78450337.8539381417510.4257090719990.207601466291341615151217.5WETL
2024-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20254312331.87426.52829.20130.4024183274571.2023628543.3923628547.3510.742362854TT-0.12690.87450337.5524290925710.2624101567220.210612409231691615151217.5WETL
2024-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20254312331.02825.98828.50830.6397302090541.1688982693.5288982697.3510.878898269TT-0.97289.02850337.7093120781510.347322211160.183327054043961615151217.5WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20254312330.39825.86228.1329.6442985996020.8783469313.3983469317.3510.748346931TT-1.60289.39850337.050614535339.99162906046490.164509243376291615152235WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20254312329.87625.86227.86929.6653522621790.814961073.214961077.3510.56496107TT-2.12489.87650337.064563423129.99913900904440.149899260483621615152235WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:03FORECAST20254312330.23625.86228.04932.4883818632940.8523626653.2723626657.3510.622362665TT-1.76489.23650338.9281931067911.0112285618890.159879742822361615151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:01FORECAST20254312330.9225.91628.41834.6119361281111.1216541493.3716541497.5610.931654149TT-1.0886.9250340.3212820283111.7791784766010.180009418212891615151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20254312330.68625.80828.24734.7383794365671.3133865363.4433865367.5611.003386536TT-1.31487.68650340.4039942728511.8250831147730.172951214933851615151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20254312330.34425.7928.06735.103037438381.314961343.554961347.5611.11496134TT-1.65687.34450340.6423847199211.9575823839230.162956540955711615151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20254312330.30826.1528.22936.6751331578131.4000007563.9200007567.5611.480000756TT-1.69288.30850341.6675977899212.5307046446550.161926703071451615151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20254312330.3825.59227.98636.3694251615381.3106306293.7806306297.5511.330630629TT-1.6287.3850341.4685564948812.4190151104590.163990616610371615151217.5WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:03FORECAST20254312332.57626.47429.52533.5423989237161.4480322784.1580322787.5911.748032278TT0.57693.57650339.6205860395911.3916891796460.234960130506781615151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20254312332.25226.22229.23737.7907466867771.4440952684.0540952687.5111.564095268TT0.25286.25250342.3926451260812.9392737193750.223534525191371615151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20254312332.32426.74429.53437.2799318693311.3787409023.9187409027.4911.408740902TT0.32485.32450342.0609169341912.7520076784670.226045937795041615151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20254312332.68428.07630.3837.151264907121.3519692343.9119692347.511.411969234TT0.68488.68450341.9772914543512.704888947040.238839052458731615151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20254312333.38627.19430.2936.8077475342381.7015757224.4115757227.5711.981575722TT1.38688.38650341.753892709912.5791910017090.26488351553051625151220WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20254312331.17227.08629.12938.2079583565881.6838591774.2838591777.6611.943859177TT-0.82882.17250342.6632673606213.0924638496470.187809312741441615151217.5WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:03FORECAST20254312331.60427.44629.52537.0386630735221.6838591774.2138591777.6311.843859177TT-0.39681.60450341.9040848757412.6636702031730.201656290453311615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20254312330.68627.73429.2139.2846988086331.598426064.038426067.5911.62842606TT-1.31475.68650343.3603659072713.4888085574890.172951214933851615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20254312329.96627.48228.72440.6169149815451.7267725864.5767725867.6112.186772586TT-2.03475.96650344.2202288877713.9811637716620.152354654217421615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20254312329.28227.26628.27440.4884406724131.6409457684.6109457687.7812.390945768TT-2.71873.28250344.1374333927213.9335880550780.134355994823021615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20254312328.5826.02427.30239.6951288343191.3240164634.2740164637.6811.954016463TT-3.4270.5850343.6255832394813.6402617974590.117456562748791615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20254312328.65225.8827.26638.1079497849281.2811030543.9611030547.5711.531103054TT-3.34870.65250342.5984234379813.055723516770.119117370387561615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20254312328.32825.727.01444.0959810052651.3968511484.1368511487.6411.776851148TT-3.67269.32850346.4520775613915.2771442313820.111772665247831615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20254312328.7626.22227.49141.9572903191051.4062999724.4662999727.7312.196299972TT-3.2473.7650345.0824266722214.4787235599080.121639455051711615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20254312328.81426.02427.41941.9829225836991.4519692884.4719692887.7312.201969288TT-3.18674.81450345.0988860652214.4882598173970.122914430335351615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 15:00:03FORECAST20254312329.53426.3327.93245.5051808602391.6566938084.6566938087.7912.446693808TT-2.46672.53450347.3504932767415.8062470184510.140809885994021615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20254312329.33624.33226.83443.085656927331.4259850224.3459850227.6411.985985022TT-2.66474.33650345.805977415814.8992777063570.135721630306531615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20254312329.35424.38626.8742.1891282309921.4228354144.5528354147.4612.012835414TT-2.64675.35450345.2312591002214.5650058595260.136178941482221615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:05FORECAST20254312328.99424.20626.645.8078828525551.271654234.251654237.511.75165423TT-3.00669.99450347.5430575000415.920211664180.127231696611091615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20254312328.4923.52226.00646.8617252332690.6696854013.2596854018.8612.119685401TT-3.5161.4950348.2123067517716.3178294418450.11540362750561615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 19:00:03FORECAST20254312328.424.5326.46547.7865943278650.838583133.448583139.0912.53858313TT-3.663.450348.798176543416.6678769647790.113376242651281615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 15:00:02FORECAST20254312330.0225.4327.72547.7872212967480.4937010543.9837010549.3513.333701054TT-1.9863.0250348.7985732379816.6681146073140.153840599182711615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20254312331.1927.35629.27342.9429805212760.4874018383.8074018388.3112.117401838TT-0.8169.1950345.7146024721614.8460154398820.18837430480481615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:04FORECAST20254312331.53227.01429.27342.3452585475970.338582863.518582868.311.81858286TT-0.46868.53250345.3314403307314.6231491254190.199307006171751615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:05FORECAST20254312331.49626.9629.22840.6801219454080.334645853.514645858.3211.83464585TT-0.50467.49650344.2609528120914.0045775414380.198138557370631615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20254312332.2726.94229.60645.2616924282240.2228347663.7228347668.4512.172834766TT0.2750.2750347.1954903474815.7146554965740.224160888863771615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:03FORECAST20254312332.39627.21229.80445.7825219061240.3153545013.8153545018.4512.265354501TT0.39651.39650347.5269297865215.9106592759190.228573193788791615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:03FORECAST20254312333.02627.39230.20948.5359641351490.4629923763.8729923768.7212.592992376TT1.02657.02650349.2718658294716.9522467533160.251349791650621625151220WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:03FORECAST20254312332.5425.7929.16549.5134837489960.6507877533.3407877538.611.940787753TT0.5458.5450349.8884188424217.3241945403160.233674921502871615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:05FORECAST20254312332.10826.22229.16550.4023282959170.8318902133.5618902138.6612.221890213TT0.10860.10850350.4477143572317.6633807495870.218559528412361615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:05FORECAST20254312332.23426.29429.26452.1897092071150.814961073.604961078.8312.43496107TT0.23460.23450351.5685884663618.3482623984150.222909156446421615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20254312333.38626.90630.14649.8416888821460.8641736953.0941736958.6511.744173695TT1.38660.38650350.0950853196317.4493303216690.26488351553051625151220WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20254312329.31824.60226.9648.7720109884320.7555122192.6255122198.6911.315512219TT-2.68251.31850349.4208883884217.0419594080680.135265369082761615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:03FORECAST20254312333.67423.7228.69739.3332665833440.834646121.854646127.499.34464612TT1.67467.67450343.3917645264813.5067198166450.275970690949161625151220WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20254312340.33423.41431.87442.3528936915440.5165357122.7365357127.3210.056535712TT8.33480.33450345.336338412414.6259932286070.571400406604671635151222.5WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:05FORECAST20254312337.79621.00229.39945.3671960568690.7681106512.9381106517.2210.158110651TT5.79670.79650347.2626649445115.7543334037680.454098257520591625151220WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20254312337.38226.2431.81147.783926025720.9314965663.2014965667.3410.541496566TT5.38264.38250348.796488253216.6668655927220.435071947411141625151220WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:03FORECAST20254312331.0125.84428.42743.7768831906320.1232284132.6532284137.3910.043228413TT-0.9960.0150346.2481942823315.1576667560650.182771488817181615151217.5WETL
2024-11-02 20:00:03FORECAST20254312331.33425.68228.50838.0209809829490.082677212.442677217.389.82267721TT-0.66661.33450342.5420208969913.0237836623860.192931809439511615151217.5WETL
2024-11-02 16:00:04FORECAST20254312331.44226.7829.11141.2857079895480.1397638552.7797638557.3310.109763855TT-0.55863.44250344.650797586614.2291521875250.196393642247161615151217.5WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:04FORECAST20254312333.3528.63430.99242.3054840650050.4456695322.4856695327.519.995669532TT1.3563.3550345.3059227509714.6083342124930.263513686607861625151220WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:04FORECAST20254312330.5626.70828.63438.0405995843850.0763779942.1363779947.629.756377994TT-1.4470.5650342.5547453866513.0309879049850.169224530253091615151217.5WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:05FORECAST20254312322.29821.90222.144.7309426103840.0342519872.6142519877.7110.324251987TT-9.70245.29850346.8572865446715.5152533784230.0273751289652261615151217.5WETL