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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 11, 2024

[ Sunday, November 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 12, 2024 ]

DAY 42 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/12/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.50°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.483
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 118

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.59 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 122

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-12 07:00:03OBSERVATION20254212238.1228.8899633.5049825.0606454166671.17000000000011.59000000000017.328.9100000000001TT6.12118.1251334.99686597172 8.39523767381190.4826747833336816 25152240WETL
2024-11-12 03:00:03OBSERVATION20254212238.1228.8899633.5049825.0606454166671.17000000000011.59000000000017.328.9100000000001TT6.12118.1251334.99686597172 8.39523767381190.4826747833336816 25152240WETL
2024-11-11 11:00:01FORECAST20254212234.62826.00630.31727.4196732326831.6362213562.0562213567.329.376221356TT2.628114.62851336.567453195239.22856958736940.33479043108991625152240WETL
2024-11-11 07:00:03FORECAST20254212234.95226.22230.58727.5621677341121.5405520131.9605520137.329.280552013TT2.952114.95251336.662021745779.27913511306220.34783933292421625152240WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20254212233.40427.06830.23627.2332587047081.6055126782.0255126787.329.345512678TT1.404113.40451336.443684790099.16245790745380.287372833042561625152240WETL
2024-11-10 23:00:01FORECAST20254212235.0628.16631.61326.2819040273421.6948828052.3648828057.329.684882805TT3.06114.0651335.811127100228.82575581376130.352230256028731625152240WETL
2024-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20254212234.64628.36431.50525.9153431599691.5547252492.2247252497.329.544725249TT2.646113.64651335.566991792558.69633374546250.335510341634451625152240WETL
2024-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20254212234.41227.51830.96526.1748176376281.7228355762.3928355767.329.712835576TT2.412113.41251335.739829380188.78792880771470.326199445569061625152240WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20254212234.86227.44631.15426.2747253785091.8814970792.5514970797.329.871497079TT2.862113.86251335.806348188948.82321957902430.344195716528651625152240WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20254212234.66427.44631.05526.5521385040661.8393710722.4293710727.329.749371072TT2.664114.66451335.990962015758.92127855955650.336230856176531625152240WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:03FORECAST20254212234.95227.28431.11829.1402851635131.8574813182.4474813187.329.767481318TT2.952113.95251337.707076922399.84088052325490.34783933292421625152240WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:01FORECAST20254212234.95228.23831.59530.0444185365541.7259851842.4859851847.329.805985184TT2.952110.95251338.3039240578910.1641446869540.34783933292421625151220WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:01FORECAST20254212235.27628.25631.76629.3478847782141.6000008642.3700008647.329.690000864TT3.276112.27651337.844241270099.91501386577780.361070900771141625152240WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20254212235.11427.91431.51429.7157775813431.6763788582.4763788587.329.796378858TT3.114112.11451338.0871362768810.0465221447170.354433167073381625151220WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20254212234.6127.51831.06430.9582748168261.9759853192.7559853197.3210.075985319TT2.61112.6151338.9057983548710.4919388424860.334071126839441625151220WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20254212234.50227.0530.77630.9555246287951.866142742.696142747.3210.01614274TT2.502111.50251338.9039891503510.490950782940.329768161273841625151220WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:03FORECAST20254212234.86227.9531.40627.7499887132651.9952766682.9752766687.3210.295276668TT2.862115.86251336.786619593839.34582489250740.344195716528651625152240WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20254212233.74628.07630.91131.5870466457651.8362214642.7962214647.3210.116221464TT1.746108.74651339.3191028017410.7180883279980.30030081793761625151220WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20254212233.45828.43630.94731.3441891510721.7326781012.7126781017.3210.032678101TT1.458108.45851339.1595458902910.6306809587770.289396518034441625151220WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20254212233.90828.00430.95631.500786781261.7602371712.7402371717.3210.060237171TT1.908110.90851339.262441505710.6870338327610.306514885575021625151220WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20254212233.63829.64231.6429.7566243405421.6893709912.9593709917.3210.279370991TT1.638109.63851338.1140906628310.0611339800980.296189978089591625151220WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:03FORECAST20254212233.49428.0430.76731.0708263943391.7279536892.9379536897.3210.257953689TT1.494106.49451338.9798292954810.5323834272230.290749346120381625151220WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:03FORECAST20254212233.72828.83231.2829.7477161307461.7311032972.8411032977.3210.161103297TT1.728104.72851338.1082124587710.0579471256970.299613891082021625151220WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20254212234.23228.97631.60431.8273580804651.6240166252.7140166257.3210.034016625TT2.232100.23251339.4768901046910.8046525414050.319109786734441625151220WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20254212234.44828.52631.48732.4070838994921.8988199233.1388199237.3210.458819923TT2.448101.44851339.857139031611.0137788184380.327625047422021625151220WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:02FORECAST20254212234.08828.2231.15432.594306415221.9751979173.4251979177.3210.745197917TT2.08899.08851339.9798209002311.0814064574140.313485119782931625151220WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20254212232.57626.36629.47133.0796890113872.1389775333.3089775337.3210.628977533TT0.57696.57651340.2976074789111.2569390267210.257211021129121625151220WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20254212232.2726.49229.38131.7217134326851.925197892.925197897.3210.24519789TT0.2797.2751339.4075362131910.7665886006490.246495377890581615151217.5WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20254212231.4625.9728.71536.8303027647142.0023632863.0623632867.3210.382363286TT-0.5496.4651342.7400194898812.6232186873960.219321663058371615151217.5WETL
2024-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20254212233.72825.68229.70534.2785986498571.8488198963.4688198967.3210.788819896TT1.72899.72851341.0808729195811.6917743499530.299613891082021625151220WETL
2024-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20254212234.53825.77230.15534.0748292221841.9240167873.4340167877.3210.754016787TT2.538100.53851340.9479155230711.6177419951080.331200018474941625151220WETL
2024-11-06 15:00:03FORECAST20254212233.02625.86229.44436.6588847814851.9263789933.4663789937.3210.786378993TT1.02698.02651342.6288982169212.5603933025410.273397625042671625151220WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20254212234.55626.09630.32635.3047991984211.7279536893.2379536897.3210.557953689TT2.55699.55651341.7494129896112.0653944017760.331916874717641625151220WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20254212234.3426.70830.52434.4024939334951.8744104613.2744104617.3210.594410461TT2.34101.3451341.1616796478411.7368126144260.323355859377041625151220WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20254212231.83826.1528.99438.4818789541751.5145677473.1645677477.3210.484567747TT-0.16295.83851343.8081744831613.2303845539170.231783488077781615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20254212228.63424.04426.33942.4219210319161.2940951874.3540951877.111.454095187TT-3.36687.63451346.3383691521714.6923389464960.138993443639461615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20254212228.54424.78226.66342.2759341605061.3814968094.6014968097.111.701496809TT-3.45689.54451346.2450711290214.637833830450.136815052594551615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 15:00:02FORECAST20254212229.96626.45628.21144.7747222381171.8145679095.7245679097.1212.844567909TT-2.03487.96651347.8372472089715.5743161278530.17398391269791615151217.5WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:02FORECAST20254212232.41427.60830.01140.1397281038321.6563001074.4463001077.1811.626300107TT0.41493.41451344.8758894940513.8432244338580.251508083170551625151220WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:04FORECAST20254212232.41428.0430.22740.3573055087591.6618119214.3218119217.1611.481811921TT0.41492.41451345.0156837786113.9239033555670.251508083170551625151220WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20254212233.04428.09430.56938.6584071614761.661418224.321418227.1811.50141822TT1.04491.04451343.9220790559913.2954797639680.274055416196941625151220WETL
2024-11-04 23:00:02FORECAST20254212230.27227.35628.81443.7961661555891.3374022974.3474022977.611.947402297TT-1.72873.27251347.2149350543215.2066829873410.182750418440741615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:03FORECAST20254212230.48826.7828.63443.7664769851171.3625991614.3425991617.6111.952599161TT-1.51274.48851347.1960300571815.1955470588210.189101226647721615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20254212231.15427.24829.20145.5935522656031.3377959984.4877959987.6412.127795998TT-0.84679.15451348.3567943197915.8828237088970.209521287397751615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:03FORECAST20254212232.03626.6929.36345.2230219856231.2964573933.7264573937.5611.286457393TT0.03600000000000181.03651348.121826950515.7431210338570.238465081912861615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:05FORECAST20254212231.89226.38429.13844.9830745652741.4818905643.7918905647.611.391890564TT-0.10882.89251347.9695491352615.6527401751960.23359534567421615151217.5WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:05FORECAST20254212232.07226.47429.27346.6982223626411.4901582853.9901582857.6311.620158285TT0.07200000000000383.07251349.0559967380716.3002945526880.239691129230391615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20254212231.80226.99629.39943.4206828160171.2106305753.5206305757.3610.880630575TT-0.19881.80251346.9757357209115.0659233655920.230579938429131615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20254212231.22625.39428.3142.4301744041381.1389769933.2089769937.3510.558976993TT-0.77477.22651346.343642725614.6954211646120.211803831528581615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:03FORECAST20254212233.96224.78229.37232.7911442849940.7555122191.3855122197.128.505512219TT1.96288.96251340.1087405545911.1525547841130.308598777375331625141216WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20254212232.50424.7128.60738.8141635080321.0681108132.5481108136.999.538110813TT0.50494.50451344.0225382124113.3529470486240.254668121598351625151220WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:05FORECAST20254212232.1824.38628.28339.5672309115291.0515753712.5115753716.889.391575371TT0.1888.1851344.5076886447713.6312152674050.243389791815051615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20254212230.90226.25828.5841.0692420103361.019685592.779685596.839.60968559TT-1.09881.90251345.4725660012814.1882964210380.201646931625371615151217.5WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:03FORECAST20254212231.24427.28429.26442.5929815540981.452756693.002756696.929.92275669TT-0.75684.24451346.4476473604914.7562382534860.212376728345511615151217.5WETL
2024-11-02 20:00:02FORECAST20254212231.11827.1429.12937.2019726005581.4456700722.7756700726.969.735670072TT-0.88285.11851342.9807874054612.7595618555760.208385452178451615151217.5WETL
2024-11-02 16:00:04FORECAST20254212235.04227.96831.50539.9571012965341.9980325752.8080325757.169.968032575TT3.04287.04251344.7584914442213.7755499654770.351497047838131625151220WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:03FORECAST20254212238.69629.4834.08838.413133349161.4169298992.3869298997.169.546929899TT6.69684.69651343.7638026607713.2050447922230.507890469621131635151222.5WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:04FORECAST20254212236.17627.2331.70337.3073595086971.4299220322.3999220327.289.679922032TT4.17695.17651343.0490157482812.7982529596260.398661318670071625151220WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:05FORECAST20254212233.02621.45227.23944.3041932102671.3240164632.9440164637.3510.294016463TT1.02678.02651347.5382076156315.3973998981530.273397625042671625151220WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20254212234.1631.56832.86433.0104249527330.3433072721.2933072727.929.213307272TT2.1689.1651340.2522833205211.2318724635480.316292144557361625141216WETL
2024-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20254212233.2627.80630.53322.0840186808490.1094488781.1194488787.929.039448878TT1.2686.2651333.001618988157.35401397448720.282009284086051625142232WETL
2024-11-01 16:00:04FORECAST20254212231.26227.80629.53416.4960676348670.0015748040.5315748047.768.291574804TT-0.73886.26251329.215002553375.43075294853330.21295052787671615132221WETL
2024-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20254212220.67818.8619.76923.34376573077800.617.998.6TT-11.32271.67851333.847874942397.79326658237330.0249589258522381615132221WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20254212224.11622.8223.46837.3891178998850.7173232221.7173232228.4310.147323222TT-7.88471.11651343.1019342178212.8282786701490.0568554441299151615151217.5WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:06FORECAST20254212224.13423.88224.00833.0523774660120.1118110841.2218110848.589.801811084TT-7.86669.13451340.279736639711.247054299450.0570821188679541615141214WETL