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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 10, 2024

[ Saturday, November 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, November 11, 2024 ]

DAY 41 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/11/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.64°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.475
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 121

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 334.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-11 07:00:02OBSERVATION20254112137.1800433.6399835.4100122.6853220833330.389999999999990.419999999999997.367.78TT5.18004121.1800452334.40906267894 7.58617729445740.475031375042716 25122216WETL
2024-11-11 03:00:02OBSERVATION20254112137.1800433.6399835.4100122.6853220833330.389999999999990.419999999999997.367.78TT5.18004121.1800452334.40906267894 7.58617729445740.475031375042716 25122216WETL
2024-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20254112136.4130.1133.2621.7405610556260.6393704240.6693704247.368.029370424TT4.41120.4152333.776006051367.25647763846270.441779653221191625132224WETL
2024-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20254112136.55430.1133.33222.0699173191310.5555121110.5855121117.367.945512111TT4.554120.55452333.996870519797.37128331722010.447973857007821625132224WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:03FORECAST20254112135.88830.32633.10723.5533393005530.5570869150.5870869157.367.947086915TT3.888119.88852334.989357999087.89011801102670.419455570073651625132224WETL
2024-11-09 23:00:01FORECAST20254112135.40230.57832.9924.3366499895410.5173231140.7573231147.368.117323114TT3.402117.40252335.511927391248.1652363442370.3989000685791625132224WETL
2024-11-09 19:00:01FORECAST20254112135.58230.232.89124.3501468878680.5326774530.7726774537.368.132677453TT3.582117.58252335.520922456918.16998374577850.406483817843061625132224WETL
2024-11-09 15:00:01FORECAST20254112136.37430.79433.58424.3940688420790.5578743170.7978743177.368.157874317TT4.374118.37452335.550192296838.18543449086180.440233263564061625132224WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:01FORECAST20254112136.64430.97433.80924.2674369615630.5401577720.7801577727.368.140157772TT4.644118.64452335.465795226878.14089503842870.451851784533641625132224WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20254112136.21230.63233.42224.5840810619440.5976381180.8276381187.368.187638118TT4.212118.21252335.676779906958.25230516784470.433286118297441625132224WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:03FORECAST20254112138.6630.72234.69122.5256258354770.7137799130.9837799137.368.343779913TT6.66121.6652334.302161573697.53036540760030.539227765704861635132227WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:01FORECAST20254112138.4831.06434.77225.6562349768370.7653547440.9553547447.368.315354744TT6.48116.4852336.389913314558.63049865983580.53144099519721635132227WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20254112138.33631.02834.68225.7719375435910.807087050.977087057.368.33708705TT6.336116.33652336.466755788778.6714002156830.525202762322821635132227WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:01FORECAST20254112138.62432.07235.34825.50029419820.8039374420.9839374427.368.343937442TT6.624117.62452336.286311378278.57539987497330.537671517929561635132227WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20254112137.8532.07234.96124.212415580441.0177170851.2677170857.368.627717085TT5.85116.8552335.429116353228.12154916292390.504112011145311635142236WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:03FORECAST20254112137.18432.70234.94324.6991628446080.8653547981.2053547987.368.565354798TT5.184114.18452335.753418579058.29282836111780.475203027155411625142232WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:03FORECAST20254112136.96831.44234.20524.423863491780.7980319271.1080319277.368.468031927TT4.968111.96852335.570045761958.19591698962010.465847764131151625142232WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:01FORECAST20254112137.02231.96434.49326.7953480.8185043791.0885043797.368.448504379TT5.022107.02252337.145459204619.03392990600740.468185014533451625142232WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20254112137.02231.58634.30426.7627586450760.9468509051.2368509057.368.596850905TT5.022108.02252337.123873842659.0223648691440.468185014533451625142232WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:02FORECAST20254112136.44631.9134.17826.7156254354350.9897643141.4497643147.368.809764314TT4.446106.44652337.09265228569.00564103549950.443326930677891625142232WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:02FORECAST20254112135.7830.03832.90926.1684657230090.8059059471.1659059477.368.525905947TT3.78104.7852336.729933979268.81170573524730.414866530863441625142232WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20254112136.530.21833.35925.6275605248940.7515752091.0015752097.368.361575209TT4.5105.552336.370866028558.62036472795750.445649460586341625142232WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20254112135.65431.22633.4428.0518174903440.736220871.056220877.368.41622087TT3.654105.65452337.976313209629.48084985421550.409527337503791625142232WETL
2024-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20254112136.03232.61234.32226.2968981765841.2082683691.6182683697.368.978268369TT4.032107.03252336.815118573568.85719287746290.425591263093931625152240WETL
2024-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20254112135.81631.08233.44926.2690553731731.10236281.51236287.368.8723628TT3.816106.81652336.796653809688.84732994842590.416394953112641625152240WETL
2024-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20254112136.5931.51434.05227.6883239321021.0732289261.5432289267.368.903228926TT4.59105.5952337.73622170379.35134991013640.44952445263021625152240WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20254112137.29231.94634.61927.7073330427711.1854337111.5054337117.368.865433711TT5.292106.29252337.748782924879.35811801328990.47988611552911625152240WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20254112137.72432.59435.15926.121248823431.2633865091.4033865097.368.763386509TT5.724107.72452336.698609733358.79498816334780.498639780705961625142232WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20254112135.65429.64232.64831.1235709734981.4712606371.6512606377.369.011260637TT3.654104.65452339.9964128818210.5819024870620.409527337503791625151220WETL
2024-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20254112132.82824.83628.83235.1585426030641.2968510943.2368510946.9610.196851094TT0.82899.82852342.6261236262412.0462351644360.295833268877871625151220WETL
2024-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20254112132.86426.04229.45334.5981015457451.2330715323.4030715326.9610.363071532TT0.864101.86452342.262477317311.8416319455220.29718878830851625151220WETL
2024-11-05 15:00:02FORECAST20254112132.30626.34829.32735.1469460629961.6775599614.1075599616.9611.067559961TT0.30699.30652342.6186043694112.0419976079510.276505097335391625151220WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:02FORECAST20254112135.29428.07631.68531.804157349881.6610245193.0510245196.9610.011024519TT3.294102.29452340.4418629447410.8274665775810.394367870089341625151220WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:03FORECAST20254112135.54628.14831.84732.1274886202121.5161425512.9161425516.949.856142551TT3.546100.54652340.653216581510.9443323391610.404964161213311625151220WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20254112135.13228.16631.64930.2379629387241.5220480662.9220480666.969.882048066TT3.13299.13252339.4156201142710.2632369418390.387596475524261625151220WETL
2024-11-04 23:00:02FORECAST20254112132.43228.4930.46136.0974255107152.1622058923.3622058927.2910.652205892TT0.43284.43252343.2341659092412.3898697366410.28111344532511625151220WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:03FORECAST20254112132.5427.80630.17335.8581713801092.1389775333.3289775337.310.628977533TT0.5484.5452343.0793570489712.302198382040.285092722811911625151220WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20254112134.26828.95831.61337.8802361978692.0653554463.5153554467.3110.825355446TT2.26889.26852344.3847720411713.0453765078690.352102704113591625151220WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:03FORECAST20254112133.24227.08630.16437.8076147779321.3866149222.6866149227.3410.026614922TT1.24290.24252344.3380047129813.018598635590.311589653694551625151220WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:05FORECAST20254112132.93626.92429.9336.4230404106291.2472447682.5672447687.389.947244768TT0.93691.93652343.4447032283512.5093003045030.299908300061361625151220WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:05FORECAST20254112133.02627.19430.1137.8690116695851.3043314132.7843314137.3910.174331413TT1.02692.02652344.3775441424713.0412372378740.303323421153221625151220WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:02FORECAST20254112134.57428.4931.53235.5958496420421.0204729922.6304729927.089.710472992TT2.57490.57452342.909514187712.2061555078510.364544947442011625151220WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20254112133.27828.81431.04634.7079623261940.7287405512.3887405517.079.458740551TT1.27887.27852342.3338020912711.8817087059670.312976784708071625151220WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:03FORECAST20254112135.99629.49832.74728.2703434237240.2590552580.8690552586.927.789055258TT3.99695.99652338.120545345779.55878393554170.424055588976521625132224WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20254112137.90427.62632.76532.165444139921.1503943221.5303943226.988.510394322TT5.904102.90452340.6780157818810.9580596863310.506457075957371635151222.5WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:05FORECAST20254112136.17625.53830.85732.689206726251.1232289531.4632289536.928.383228953TT4.17697.17652341.0199853200211.1476727979090.43174502551625141216WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20254112134.86224.40429.63334.2599208569041.2507880771.7607880776.878.630788077TT2.86291.86252342.0427957291511.7183591113550.376387338324791625151220WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:03FORECAST20254112136.24825.8831.06431.5924178841681.0783470391.5683470396.948.508347039TT4.24894.24852340.3033600204810.7510059571530.434828226086751625151220WETL
2024-11-02 20:00:02FORECAST20254112136.53624.7130.62326.337668632840.9141737221.3541737226.988.334173722TT4.53694.53652336.842154338.87163704231530.447198855675351625142232WETL
2024-11-02 16:00:03FORECAST20254112136.53624.06230.29925.9450904426370.6440948360.8540948367.168.014094836TT4.53692.53652336.58171103518.73264293414320.447198855675351625132224WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:03FORECAST20254112134.5223.2728.89528.8928779919230.6200790751.0500790757.128.170079075TT2.5286.5252338.530993846119.78113470168010.362338424211681625142232WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:03FORECAST20254112137.05825.23231.14527.8697861362410.625984591.045984597.248.28598459TT5.058100.05852337.856107200459.41597745249960.469743795946091625142232WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:05FORECAST20254112135.13227.08631.10933.5028319993721.2582683961.6682683967.349.008268396TT3.13286.13252341.5503074903511.4429025711830.387596475524261625151220WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20254112136.42826.72631.57730.3930029594070.7259846440.9559846447.958.905984644TT4.42896.42852339.5173916500110.3189530891890.442553182427641625131212WETL
2024-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20254112136.17627.33831.75721.2462526535460.7775594751.0175594757.958.967559475TT4.17694.17652333.444178661247.08443926569070.43174502551625142232WETL
2024-11-01 16:00:03FORECAST20254112133.99828.431.19916.4829224652470.2535434440.5335434447.88.333543444TT1.99895.99852330.225130917915.4430752289960.341253654522981625132224WETL
2024-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20254112132.64818.06825.35823.3437657307780.2996064610.6096064618.038.639606461TT0.64891.64852334.849368973827.81664522442370.289098626030451625132224WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20254112133.04424.38628.71529.2117742503620.6744098131.0044098138.479.474409813TT1.04488.04452338.740996770089.89522552699040.304008523851071625142232WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20254112133.5324.38628.95831.7548666301060.7858271961.2558271968.479.725827196TT1.5385.5352340.4096275727810.8096623231780.322759990514791625141216WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:04FORECAST20254112126.2425.5225.8828.639309113930.1295276290.5995276298.559.149527629TT-5.7686.2452338.363889552879.69050802589630.104907895357011615132221WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20254112132.95427.17630.06519.7777670748640.0240157610.4940157618.258.744015761TT0.95496.95452332.455928862186.57523592369390.300589932249411625132224WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:04FORECAST20254112132.75628.7630.75817.8957424985330.0271653690.3271653698.068.387165369TT0.756104.75652331.183977548535.92678318184850.293130777084981625122216WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:04FORECAST20254112135.88835.29435.59119.1998427979460.0165354420.1765354428.258.426535442TT3.888112.88852332.065990036116.37561480723760.419455570073651625122216WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20254112133.40431.69432.54920.018679496370.1881890780.4681890787.998.458189078TT1.404112.40452332.618309061316.65857932372290.317852507198821625122216WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20254112133.58433.06233.32320.629471113830.0539370371.9939370378.1110.103937037TT1.584105.58452333.029550832436.87022349894940.32487274236091625152240WETL