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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 9, 2024

[ Friday, November 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 10, 2024 ]

DAY 40 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/10/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.80°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.45°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.608
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 115

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 22 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 120

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-10 07:00:02OBSERVATION20254012041.0933.837.44522.19483750.0299999999999730.0299999999999737.427.45TT9.09115.0953335.08120435737 7.4370728800160.6082976838203416 3511229WETL
2024-11-10 03:00:03OBSERVATION20254012041.0933.837.44522.19483750.0299999999999730.0299999999999737.427.45TT9.09115.0953335.08120435737 7.4370728800160.6082976838203416 3511229WETL
2024-11-09 11:00:01FORECAST20254012038.76833.09835.93322.9645621880360.2421261150.2421261157.427.662126115TT6.768112.76853335.594539596147.70678167452070.507487721641141635122218WETL
2024-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20254012038.58832.5435.56423.0885781520680.2338583940.2338583947.427.653858394TT6.588112.58853335.677152947777.75030817969840.499567622859981635122218WETL
2024-11-09 03:00:03FORECAST20254012039.61432.93636.27522.8668890476420.2688977830.2688977837.427.688897783TT7.614113.61453335.529456220147.67251484760150.544621247647361635122218WETL
2024-11-08 23:00:01FORECAST20254012039.5633.27836.41925.927395722030.1933071910.1933071917.427.613307191TT7.56108.5653337.561135642038.75208114416890.542259190013961635122218WETL
2024-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20254012039.90232.43236.16725.9105198573890.1669292240.1669292247.427.586929224TT7.902108.90253337.549976056538.74609535747390.557190255196781635122218WETL
2024-11-08 15:00:01FORECAST20254012040.89233.20637.04925.7482164882710.1775591510.1775591517.427.597559151TT8.892109.89253337.442624487648.68854574767830.599883518155961635122218WETL
2024-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20254012040.58633.15236.86924.4292353332050.2452757230.2452757237.427.665275723TT8.586109.58653336.568573717628.22211289310880.586789473291891635122218WETL
2024-11-08 07:00:03FORECAST20254012040.06433.3536.70724.969733287750.342519870.342519877.427.76251987TT8.064108.06453336.927100274538.41297983126990.564235936283721635122218WETL
2024-11-08 03:00:03FORECAST20254012038.35433.1735.76224.6339276727510.3133859960.3133859967.427.733385996TT6.354106.35453336.704409457058.29435206966130.489272215880911625122216WETL
2024-11-07 23:00:01FORECAST20254012038.5732.73835.65427.1067840.2700788860.2700788867.427.690078886TT6.57100.5753338.339851817119.17130528179830.498775570843681625122216WETL
2024-11-07 19:00:01FORECAST20254012039.25432.59435.92427.06211040.2877954310.2877954317.427.707795431TT7.254102.25453338.3103976119.15539332961680.528848427683571635122218WETL
2024-11-07 15:00:02FORECAST20254012039.23633.31436.27526.95652720.4586616650.4586616657.427.878661665TT7.236101.23653338.240771190869.11779654875540.528058389323311635122218WETL
2024-11-07 11:00:02FORECAST20254012038.15632.77435.46526.1907460019460.3578742090.3578742097.427.777874209TT6.156100.15653337.735220606498.84553737881590.480566022883931625122216WETL
2024-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20254012038.31833.45835.88825.5326836391190.2503938360.2503938367.427.670393836TT6.318100.31853337.299997164928.61217411908770.48768876965261625122216WETL
2024-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20254012039.34432.50435.92425.6093998265580.3200789130.3200789137.427.740078913TT7.344101.34453337.350772503958.63935081485170.532796854883181635122218WETL
2024-11-06 23:00:01FORECAST20254012039.99233.45836.72526.0949840995980.4090553390.4090553397.427.829055339TT7.992101.99253337.671931669298.81154368779050.561106901922121635122218WETL
2024-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20254012039.79432.86436.32926.1247584874420.4149608540.4149608547.427.834960854TT7.794101.79453337.691611178978.82211178528580.552482925195291635122218WETL
2024-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20254012039.79430.97435.38426.5826216025270.4732286020.4732286027.427.893228602TT7.79499.79453337.994050432288.98476794654670.552482925195291635122218WETL
2024-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20254012039.63232.9936.31125.6662345072830.3204726140.3204726147.427.740472614TT7.63299.63253337.388382698868.65948935038190.545408253993971635122218WETL
2024-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20254012041.23432.37836.80624.9751666156070.1421260610.1421260617.427.562126061TT9.234101.23453336.930701846058.41490041651820.614385665511371635122218WETL
2024-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20254012039.66829.19234.4325.6304043423320.1818898620.1818898627.427.601889862TT7.66899.66853337.364672817468.64679297513010.546981729014961635122218WETL
2024-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20254012039.0228.20233.61127.5218503963211.7555127591.9355127597.028.955512759TT7.0298.0253338.613353745679.3192660639850.518570203964691635152245WETL
2024-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20254012038.71429.7534.23227.1488104683741.9870089472.1670089477.029.187008947TT6.71499.71453338.367557665079.18627669169580.505111859862231635152245WETL
2024-11-05 15:00:02FORECAST20254012039.48828.5834.03426.5547670773372.2267728562.4267728567.029.446772856TT7.48898.48853337.975661307458.97486496382820.539107470977191635152245WETL
2024-11-05 11:00:02FORECAST20254012037.88628.61633.25125.4198424795461.1334651791.3934651797.028.413465179TT5.88697.88653337.225294187368.57221385836110.468709673313861625142232WETL
2024-11-05 07:00:03FORECAST20254012037.81428.6733.24226.3915208743011.1354336841.39543368478.395433684TT5.81495.81453337.867862539988.91684674697940.46555222548841625142232WETL
2024-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20254012037.88628.9433.41324.3311833833491.1362210861.3962210867.028.416221086TT5.88694.88653336.503480510168.18752789342820.468709673313861625142232WETL
2024-11-04 23:00:02FORECAST20254012036.30228.09432.19825.6757049627030.8535437681.2035437687.358.553543768TT4.30283.30253337.394649219188.66284546934640.400046073317921625142232WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:03FORECAST20254012035.79827.37431.58625.5357278601470.8393705321.1893705327.368.549370532TT3.79882.79853337.302012200118.6132523902220.378729625747571625142232WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20254012035.61828.81432.21628.3908951213111.082677751.452677757.378.82267775TT3.61885.61853339.18506502159.62976760774050.371201435504981625142232WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20254012036.55429.17432.86431.1968481649441.0429139491.3029139497.48.702913949TT4.55487.55453341.0224023580310.6388241072080.410821462757831625141216WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:05FORECAST20254012037.20229.01233.10730.4782381587641.0618115971.3218115977.448.761811597TT5.20290.20253340.5531033672210.3794585901320.438821252969281625141216WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:05FORECAST20254012036.35629.22832.79231.525672800451.1988195451.4788195457.458.928819545TT4.35690.35653341.2368606995310.7577216178660.40234898958891625141216WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:02FORECAST20254012036.12229.60632.86430.496290100111.2901581771.6101581777.148.750158177TT4.12287.12253340.5649029488610.3859660782440.392395173660181625151220WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20254012035.9627.87831.91930.9034037531811.3397645031.6597645037.138.789764503TT3.9684.9653340.8308675761310.5328339122520.385544644492361625151220WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:03FORECAST20254012036.62628.09432.3626.4180338427130.3685041360.6085041366.987.588504136TT4.62690.62653337.885373278948.92626722624080.413912929470411625132224WETL
2024-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20254012037.74230.79434.26826.7532643139120.334645850.384645857.047.42464585TT5.74295.74253338.106677704449.04545731492570.462396944712351625122216WETL
2024-11-03 07:00:04FORECAST20254012037.11229.35433.23326.944703591090.3350395510.3350395516.987.315039551TT5.11292.11253338.232972996479.11358720212310.434910693131811625122216WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:04FORECAST20254012038.42628.09433.2627.366126863530.5082679910.5082679916.937.438267991TT6.42688.42653338.510775797589.26372883514860.492439590693881625132224WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:03FORECAST20254012038.85826.74432.80125.2762357724720.4669293860.48692938677.486929386TT6.85888.85853337.130192868048.52138224095150.511446859454351635122218WETL
2024-11-02 20:00:02FORECAST20254012039.68626.16832.92721.1547985593110.4200789670.4400789677.047.480078967TT7.68688.68653334.385998373417.07386843664370.547768191571571635122218WETL
2024-11-02 16:00:03FORECAST20254012037.63427.5932.61222.1564747109890.1724410380.2124410387.227.432441038TT5.63486.63453335.055593656127.42365078761730.457668518341661625122216WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:03FORECAST20254012036.39226.16831.2825.218309824350.3531497970.4331497977.187.613149797TT4.39283.39253337.091822486028.50088601870730.403886157077831625122216WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:03FORECAST20254012036.75228.00432.37824.6188900284690.3409450660.4209450667.37.720945066TT4.75293.75253336.694432739928.28904321282170.419335741387071625122216WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:04FORECAST20254012036.526.85231.67626.2973270747760.3559057040.4059057047.47.805905704TT4.581.553337.805641822898.88338545072120.408506480746051625122216WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20254012036.91426.5131.71225.855150916410.2192914570.2292914578.018.239291457TT4.91490.91453337.513358606728.72645882308130.426330361001221625122216WETL
2024-11-01 20:00:02FORECAST20254012036.10427.62631.86516.3981170568320.2291339820.2391339828.018.249133982TT4.10489.10453331.182919051375.43077627382790.391632312412011625122216WETL
2024-11-01 16:00:03FORECAST20254012038.331.67634.98814.859258538420.2811025140.2811025147.868.141102514TT6.393.353330.138361726184.90561127033980.486897117747791625123224WETH
2024-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20254012039.59632.66636.13121.2459331150260.3137796970.3137796978.098.403779697TT7.59689.59653334.446990001837.10563838010060.543834066158711635122218WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20254012036.9529.3933.1723.6116411759940.3311025410.3311025418.538.861102541TT4.9585.9553336.025305673497.93410894361610.427887954016971625122216WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20254012033.83624.27829.05724.9008601246160.3204726140.4704726148.539.000472614TT1.83682.83653336.881442247088.38863767197340.299710723383641625122216WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:04FORECAST20254012033.51226.45629.98427.2721034837610.3106300890.4706300898.619.080630089TT1.51290.51253338.4488212259.23021127640490.287408176271841625122216WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20254012035.27627.66231.46919.5588380943590.3137796970.4737796978.318.783779697TT3.27695.27653333.315613169236.5192661122990.357034870553681625122216WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20254012040.69430.95635.82517.6657667944730.3039371720.3039371728.128.423937172TT8.694102.69453332.040321712815.86574688974040.591422737373371635122218WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20254012041.55835.11438.33619.2314091176780.1649607190.1649607198.318.474960719TT9.558107.55853333.095474849376.40589535207570.627978978850621635122218WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20254012041.79234.08837.9418.5361615374290.2775592050.2775592058.058.327559205TT9.792109.79253332.627435757556.16563588098270.637699231700661635122218WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20254012041.48634.12437.80520.2037305733820.7850397941.9350397948.1710.105039794TT9.486103.48653333.74865474766.74296789974910.62497131988631635152245WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20254012039.27236.15837.71525.2323143142920.2964568531.4164568538.399.806456853TT7.272109.27253337.101099634198.50584090166330.529638352531291635142236WETL
2024-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20254012037.68826.9632.32424.1787530370670.2889765341.3689765348.9610.328976534TT5.688106.68853336.402255220148.133787050080.460032024989871625142232WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20254012036.33826.9631.64926.59841908466900.479.5610.03TT4.338109.33853338.004479106428.99038478776810.401580969998111625122216WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20254012033.81831.62232.7223.57573026524100.428.318.73TT1.818101.81853336.001418020777.92147879999630.29902103372431625122216WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20254012037.11234.91636.01423.43409044018300.428.158.57TT5.11299.11253335.907179085747.87167921420190.434910693131811625122216WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20254012035.6935.49235.59121.556708217982007.667.66TT3.69101.6953334.654869520457.21405737597910.37420698620237162511228WETL