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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 8, 2024

[ Thursday, November 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 9, 2024 ]

DAY 39 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/09/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.904
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 114

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 54
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 119

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 11.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-09 07:00:04OBSERVATION20253911952.6699441.0500446.8599923.077381666667007.437.43TT20.66994113.6699454336.66427971739 7.76933007657170.9036512539505116 55112211WETM
2024-11-09 03:00:03OBSERVATION20253911952.6699441.0500446.8599923.077381666667007.437.43TT20.66994113.6699454336.66427971739 7.76933007657170.9036512539505116 55112211WETM
2024-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20253911947.58837.70642.64724.6885248007.437.43TT15.588108.58854337.731151115448.33808390004620.785989574886951645112210WETM
2024-11-08 07:00:03FORECAST20253911947.40839.23643.32225.031419283333007.437.43TT15.408108.40854337.957647043658.45955956315850.780690792775991645112210WETM
2024-11-08 03:00:02FORECAST20253911947.28238.85843.0725.052870483333007.437.43TT15.282108.28254337.971809889338.46716398017520.776937290192071645112210WETM
2024-11-07 23:00:01FORECAST20253911948.39839.16443.78127.6285008007.437.43TT16.398102.39854339.666736128489.38448269085910.808895987313991645112210WETM
2024-11-07 19:00:01FORECAST20253911948.52439.25443.88927.58058007.437.43TT16.524102.52454339.635302364229.36733862768040.812319317792281645112210WETM
2024-11-07 15:00:02FORECAST20253911948.07439.30843.69127.5852048007.437.43TT16.074102.07454339.638336179739.36899306144920.799919270194191645112210WETM
2024-11-07 11:00:02FORECAST20253911947.5738.5743.0726.2744184007.437.43TT15.57101.5754338.77704746268.90116988934910.785463067492091645112210WETM
2024-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20253911947.62438.73243.17825.783288166667007.437.43TT15.624101.62454338.453597442328.72644663390040.787040334681931645112210WETM
2024-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20253911947.51639.57843.54725.697680166667007.437.43TT15.516101.51654338.397176161728.69602240230710.783879042997761645112210WETM
2024-11-06 23:00:01FORECAST20253911947.80439.79443.79926.1469904007.437.43TT15.804101.80454338.693164308458.85580691571870.792248873380071645112210WETM
2024-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20253911947.87640.06443.9726.1287864007.437.43TT15.876101.87654338.681178784228.84932817815310.794311078941431645112210WETM
2024-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20253911946.97638.9342.95326.2822904007.437.43TT14.97699.97654338.782228543158.90397291293020.767671240480371645112210WETM
2024-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20253911947.46238.35442.90825.6459376007.437.43TT15.462100.46254338.363068471368.67763814016090.782288278751731645112210WETM
2024-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20253911947.17438.342.73725.5166369007.437.43TT15.174100.17454338.277816373138.63171221171810.773691140889571645112210WETM
2024-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20253911946.99438.76842.88125.5160465007.437.43TT14.99499.99454338.277427039268.63150255823410.768222152938581645112210WETM
2024-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20253911945.37438.19241.78323.82394320.1787402540.1787402547.037.208740254TT13.37499.37454337.159182826398.03246122101430.715843467146131645122220WETM
2024-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20253911945.64438.91242.27823.64318240.1826772640.1826772647.037.212677264TT13.644100.64454337.039440774257.96868497421960.724951217146891645122220WETM
2024-11-05 15:00:01FORECAST20253911945.33838.37241.85523.75043840.2011812110.2011812117.037.231181211TT13.33899.33854337.110497399588.00652210248210.7146183013181645122220WETM
2024-11-05 11:00:02FORECAST20253911945.71637.97641.84624.2124201533360.2633859690.2633859697.037.293385969TT13.71699.71654337.416337102018.16966612051370.72735546624561645122220WETM
2024-11-05 07:00:03FORECAST20253911944.99637.90441.4524.2919481858280.259842660.259842667.017.26984266TT12.99697.99654337.468949801068.19777824289340.702855730737311645122220WETM
2024-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20253911944.61837.25640.93724.4030287871110.2622048660.2622048667.037.292204866TT12.61896.61854337.542418683778.23705736001110.689603406471671635122218WETM
2024-11-04 23:00:02FORECAST20253911939.34435.2437.29224.2577733766140.3547246010.3547246017.367.714724601TT7.34487.34454337.446342358988.18569689971140.486393283190811625122216WETL
2024-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20253911939.25435.90637.5824.356618866880.3488190860.3488190867.377.718819086TT7.25487.25454337.511725611318.22064446381780.482795732751611625122216WETL
2024-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20253911941.0935.83438.46224.6403001243040.3681104350.3681104357.387.748110435TT9.0990.0954337.699280905348.32101163326930.556049766101431635122218WETL
2024-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20253911941.9936.60839.29928.0810755643490.2645670720.2645670727.417.674567072TT9.9990.9954339.96341501449.54653834613370.591422729246711635122218WETL
2024-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20253911942.6234.84438.73227.8796740949230.2629922680.2629922687.457.712992268TT10.6292.6254339.831431288129.47438955152410.615765446182831635122218WETL
2024-11-04 03:00:05FORECAST20253911943.05236.60839.8327.8254521078960.2763781020.2763781027.467.736378102TT11.05294.05254339.795886644429.45497417028440.63220381050011635122218WETL
2024-11-03 23:00:02FORECAST20253911942.36836.55439.46125.8790588748890.3196852120.3196852127.157.469685212TT10.36891.36854338.51670207568.76049366314760.606077197071681635122218WETL
2024-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20253911942.33236.42839.3825.8589439426170.3220474180.3220474187.147.462047418TT10.33289.33254338.503449344278.75334172097610.604687632644711635122218WETL
2024-11-03 15:00:03FORECAST20253911944.31236.96840.6425.0982298987540.2421261150.2421261156.997.232126115TT12.31294.31254338.001755248778.48324575941580.678691097731381635122218WETM
2024-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20253911946.5837.92242.25125.8462430714840.0488189240.0488189247.057.098818924TT14.5897.5854338.49508102148.74882614258070.755368896949641645112210WETM
2024-11-03 07:00:04FORECAST20253911945.51837.16641.34225.961694834573006.996.99TT13.51894.51854338.571139707188.78988060887120.7207188431191645112210WETM
2024-11-03 03:00:04FORECAST20253911944.02437.18440.60425.9683446934510.0011811030.0011811036.946.941181103TT12.02490.02454338.575519901018.79224580555390.66827771088957163511229WETM
2024-11-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253911944.0635.9640.0124.6808732257690.0188976480.0188976487.017.028897648TT12.0690.0654337.726094685118.33537492795740.6695867255621163511229WETM
2024-11-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253911944.00636.89640.45120.9623143210920.0188976480.0188976487.057.068897648TT12.00689.00654335.257074057437.02776416476160.6676224314871163511229WETM
2024-11-02 16:00:03FORECAST20253911944.00636.55440.2821.7148080807280.0437008110.0437008117.237.273700811TT12.00689.00654335.758593013077.2909334087340.6676224314871163511229WETM
2024-11-02 12:00:03FORECAST20253911942.835.54639.17323.8265382728380.0838583130.0838583137.197.273858313TT10.886.854337.160901489918.03337712345380.62264200846625163511229WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:03FORECAST20253911944.0636.89640.47823.3842479687970.0838583130.0838583137.317.393858313TT12.0697.0654336.867818060337.87740059023030.6695867255621163511229WETM
2024-11-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253911943.73635.1539.44324.9023357617450.0531496350.0531496357.417.463149635TT11.73684.73654337.872405213418.41381207925280.65773273090128163511229WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20253911946.05834.7940.42425.0297623947240.0051181130.0051181138.028.025118113TT14.05894.05854337.956553074728.45897222320010.738631430611281645112210WETM
2024-11-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253911945.89635.45640.67615.478332215760.0059055150.0059055158.028.025905515TT13.89692.89654331.573039657595.13219766160970.733320138201121645112210WETM
2024-11-01 16:00:03FORECAST20253911946.4937.9442.21514.403300497636007.877.87TT14.4995.4954330.844818655424.76525734117980.752524849406931645113215WETH
2024-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20253911944.70836.57240.6420.74873876147008.18.1TT12.70889.70854335.114556365176.9532043851870.69278199280875163511229WETM
2024-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20253911943.32235.09639.20922.655430031578008.548.54TT11.32289.32254336.384148375967.62092753726360.64235834237973163511229WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20253911940.42434.10637.26523.0517762799050.1527559880.1527559888.548.692755988TT8.42489.42454336.647288999087.76031799124330.529566493683651635122218WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:03FORECAST20253911939.18233.58436.38325.1898535283670.1594489050.1594489058.628.779448905TT7.18297.18254338.062232775328.51573812708310.479918686534811625122216WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20253911941.05435.49238.27318.9394807243890.1602363070.1602363078.328.480236307TT9.054100.05454333.90414270126.32397107448290.554623543546781635122218WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20253911943.39438.7541.07217.602402678012008.138.13TT11.394102.39454333.006041523165.86170643710150.64504963751195163511229WETM
2024-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20253911944.31239.59641.95420.128521917678008.328.32TT12.312106.31254334.700250858156.73702133525070.67869109773138163511229WETM
2024-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20253911945.08640.1942.63818.832733729723008.068.06TT13.086108.08654333.832553854936.28697959706320.705972549660021645112210WETM
2024-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20253911940.58636.0538.31820.3224436294551.1488195181.1488195188.189.328819518TT8.586101.58654334.829860905666.80456097371340.536024957604061635142236WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20253911943.91637.56240.73925.4900239142921.1200793451.1200793458.49.520079345TT11.916109.91654338.260266103458.62226227223180.664338383109831635142236WETM
2024-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20253911943.01635.99639.50624.3173002370671.0846462551.0846462558.9710.054646255TT11.016109.01654337.48571951298.20674156711760.630842685043871635142236WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20253911947.4835.81641.64826.6947526846690.405512030.465512039.5710.03551203TT15.48113.4854339.053552213999.05095072321120.78281928125891645122220WETM
2024-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20253911941.9934.30438.14723.5994446652410.366141930.416141938.328.73614193TT9.99107.9954337.010459161577.95325968259110.591422729246711635122218WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20253911942.4435.76239.10123.5885784401830.3665356310.4165356318.168.576535631TT10.44102.4454337.003258455667.94942779667860.608852262640311635122218WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20253911946.45435.90641.1821.595969817982007.677.67TT14.454106.45454335.679453898957.24932335491830.751382310392811645112210WETM
2024-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20253911937.4930.9234.20523.4081944543870.4374018110.7874018117.768.547401811TT5.4997.4954336.883694618087.88583903213250.412928560780991625132224WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20253911937.3128.70633.00823.0354263787720.4433073260.8033073267.588.383307326TT5.3190.3154336.636439275577.75456391334430.405914553068281625132224WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:03FORECAST20253911934.84428.70631.77527.0776753175660.2988190590.9188190597.017.928819059TT2.84490.84454339.305189954559.18759576715450.313716647356271625132224WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:04FORECAST20253911934.48432.59433.53914.94886728802900.015.845.85TF2.48492.48454331.214631317094.95128356741250.301029206695491625113212WETM
2024-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20253911931.38829.8430.61416.09592103948100.0166.01TF-0.61291.38854331.990492755325.34369275724790.20271976024886161511227WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:05FORECAST20253911930.27230.05630.16418.3652434083100.016.326.33TF-1.72886.27254333.518807219236.12515407583030.17260913440517161511227WETL