MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 7, 2024

[ Wednesday, November 6, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, November 8, 2024 ]

DAY 38 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/08/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.95°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.957
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 100

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 26 in
SWE DAY: 55
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 118

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 33.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-08 07:00:02OBSERVATION20253811855.5900840.3100647.9500726.34673208333300.57.227.72TT23.5900899.5900855339.80725617382 8.95281073838410.9571469068600716 55132233WETM
2024-11-08 03:00:02OBSERVATION20253811855.5900840.3100647.9500726.34673208333300.57.227.72TT23.5900899.5900855339.80725617382 8.95281073838410.9571469068600716 55132233WETM
2024-11-07 11:00:01FORECAST20253811849.38837.68843.53827.628107200.57.227.72TT17.38893.38855340.64590325839.41140153246120.854238530999991655132233WETM
2024-11-07 07:00:03FORECAST20253811849.33437.50843.42127.15104816666700.57.227.72TT17.33493.33455340.333991827859.24042460487180.852914557835561655132233WETM
2024-11-07 03:00:03FORECAST20253811849.35238.01243.68227.09692816666700.57.227.72TT17.35293.35255340.298583134389.22104626241070.853356772775211655132233WETM
2024-11-06 23:00:01FORECAST20253811849.76637.23843.50227.576348800.57.227.72TT17.76692.76655340.612080781579.39283754512640.863282314482621655132233WETM
2024-11-06 19:00:01FORECAST20253811849.7336.9543.3427.556570400.57.227.72TT17.7392.7355340.599155048719.38574459428030.862437860236531655132233WETM
2024-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20253811849.06437.2243.14227.624958400.57.227.72TT17.06492.06455340.643845744169.41027206789840.846174365426031645132230WETM
2024-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20253811849.15438.2143.68226.985456800.57.227.72TT17.15492.15455340.225636245619.18114420915840.848443392430351645132230WETM
2024-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20253811849.04638.04843.54726.833720900.57.227.72TT17.04692.04655340.126307038869.12685439382840.845717882967251645132230WETM
2024-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20253811849.11838.76843.94326.810596900.57.227.72TT17.11892.11855340.111166266679.11858337996460.847538458384381645132230WETM
2024-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20253811848.8339.0243.92524.977683200.17.227.32TT16.8392.8355338.908206288728.46514181055980.840170466646971645122220WETM
2024-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20253811849.53239.16444.34824.855273600.17.227.32TT17.53293.53255338.827667940918.42165438992120.857729968563431655122222WETM
2024-11-05 15:00:01FORECAST20253811849.47838.35443.91624.929467200.17.227.32TT17.47893.47855338.876485973648.44801024193110.856427350198841655122222WETM
2024-11-05 11:00:02FORECAST20253811849.0138.96643.98825.38092015333600.17.227.32TT17.0193.0155339.173335547018.60853134765940.844802240464361645122220WETM
2024-11-05 07:00:03FORECAST20253811848.88438.76843.82625.43082978582800.087.227.3TT16.88491.88455339.206132368098.62629341456210.841569372671861645112210WETM
2024-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20253811848.70437.92243.31325.52744558711100.17.227.32TT16.70490.70455339.269609123928.66068648627130.836875108381091645122220WETM
2024-11-04 23:00:02FORECAST20253811846.61636.2341.42324.98130387494600.117.547.65TT14.61686.61655338.910588099528.46642838775070.775969099873421645122220WETM
2024-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20253811846.20236.08641.14425.07979160986700.127.547.66TT14.20287.20255338.975368489078.5014316025840.762521028396361645122220WETM
2024-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20253811846.52636.12241.32425.0200266804800.137.547.67TT14.52687.52655338.936059990298.48018926393360.773082889854921645122220WETM
2024-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20253811847.10235.43841.2728.9807114171700.167.547.7TT15.10288.10255341.528212712169.8977305734330.791190222543781645122220WETM
2024-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20253811847.06635.70841.38728.56721760889900.177.577.74TT15.06689.06655341.258810571349.74881470254550.790084023455111645122220WETM
2024-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20253811847.67836.10441.89128.61917242094500.157.67.75TT15.67889.67855341.292676048459.76751394183630.808418694395521645122220WETM
2024-11-03 23:00:02FORECAST20253811847.53436.35641.94526.74522759830800.137.317.44TT15.53487.53455340.068359963889.09520568621740.804195141620471645122220WETM
2024-11-03 19:00:02FORECAST20253811847.62437.70642.66526.74074467219200.127.317.43TT15.62485.62455340.065424113079.09360267804850.806841429925641645122220WETM
2024-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20253811848.59637.25642.92625.94564716685800.117.177.28TT16.59688.59655339.544188745088.80969371873690.83401571066161645122220WETM
2024-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20253811849.24437.68843.46627.04977347148400.127.227.34TT17.24490.24455340.267727611219.20416495153980.850690118565121655122222WETM
2024-11-03 07:00:04FORECAST20253811848.07437.43642.75527.06643163457300.127.167.28TT16.07488.07455340.278628248849.21012822820320.819743259193671645122220WETM
2024-11-03 03:00:04FORECAST20253811847.87637.11242.49427.05812469345100.117.127.23TT15.87684.87655340.273192475759.20715447184760.814134341622281645122220WETM
2024-11-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253811847.15637.5842.36825.55897568183100.067.247.3TT15.15685.15655339.290321081978.67191306561470.792843077759531645112210WETM
2024-11-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253811848.00238.0343.01621.95089056215600.067.287.34TT16.00284.00255336.909389916157.39546114741210.81771603297231645112210WETM
2024-11-02 16:00:03FORECAST20253811847.28239.81243.54722.57589848023900.097.437.52TT15.28284.28255337.323389055767.61537858633320.796669575766261645112210WETM
2024-11-02 12:00:03FORECAST20253811845.03236.84240.93724.4117549050100.147.347.48TT13.03283.03255338.535648793078.26424928494480.722234292881211645122220WETM
2024-11-02 08:00:03FORECAST20253811847.64238.3943.01624.27493340990900.157.457.6TT15.64291.64255338.445497118428.21574190543310.807368061433021645122220WETM
2024-11-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253811846.27437.6741.97225.65867912041300.177.537.7TT14.27480.27455339.355804846418.70742170420370.764891132496161645122220WETM
2024-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20253811849.8239.14644.48326.17527200383100.168.158.31TT17.8286.8255339.694830084298.89160457575160.864542357649081655122222WETM
2024-11-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253811849.67639.45244.56416.6512175203500.228.098.31TT17.67685.67655333.372398457575.55105632199780.861164534705491655122222WETM
2024-11-01 16:00:03FORECAST20253811849.87438.80444.33915.76161409763600.138.038.16TT17.87487.87455332.773998005815.24505533829510.865794442509041655122222WETM
2024-11-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253811845.8637.99441.92721.8938195614700.178.228.39TT13.8683.8655336.871553885837.37540501616850.751086237515191645122220WETM
2024-11-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253811847.22836.10441.66623.64582603157800.48.438.83TT15.22885.22855338.030574852837.99301216632440.795034828304121645122220WETM
2024-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20253811845.84237.50841.67523.69521187459700.388.458.83TT13.84287.84255338.063170839788.01047846004670.750476405960111645122220WETM
2024-11-01 00:00:03FORECAST20253811849.5536.2342.8925.50725393932900.438.488.91TT17.5596.5555339.256344462438.65349772873150.858162397093611655122222WETM
2024-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20253811849.78438.4844.13219.70158872438900.238.388.61TT17.78497.78455335.414023787236.60818914904840.863703213658381655122222WETM
2024-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20253811849.5539.63244.59118.73606907801200.238.198.42TT17.5597.5555334.769507966546.27226462647330.858162397093611655122222WETM
2024-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20253811847.58838.33642.96221.37544671767800.398.228.61TT15.588100.58855336.527639978347.1934286373830.805785539268071645122220WETM
2024-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20253811848.09238.78643.43920.16812012972300.328.038.35TT16.092102.09255335.724882764976.77093976614090.82024785168911645122220WETM
2024-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20253811845.06837.00441.03621.09901642945500.368.118.47TT13.068100.06855336.344057394687.09652879291990.723521851344231645122220WETM
2024-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20253811847.80438.35443.07926.58590471429200.388.318.69TT15.804104.80455339.963999508589.03825049722470.812068245893091645122220WETM
2024-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20253811847.37237.07642.22425.25003383706700.618.659.26TT15.372105.37255339.087307246428.56196598169190.799376836675381645132230WETM
2024-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20253811847.78637.09442.4427.7079774846690.0566929440.7366929449.189.916692944TT15.786104.78655340.698087237999.44005493026020.811549519599771645132230WETM
2024-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20253811847.9336.91442.42224.4287598652410.0515748310.3415748318.328.661574831TT15.93104.9355338.546851171558.27027973040340.815674652427391645122220WETM
2024-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20253811848.00236.62642.31424.5285936401830.0515748310.4415748318.068.501574831TT16.00299.00255338.612609031718.30569108838110.81771603297231645122220WETM
2024-10-30 04:00:05FORECAST20253811848.57836.30242.4422.71595861798200.357.617.96TT16.57898.57855337.416073414327.66472956072150.833536022108431645122220WETM
2024-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20253811846.52635.38440.95523.5274552543870.3511812921.0411812927.368.401181292TT14.52698.52655337.952430303497.95116068207670.773082889854921645142240WETM
2024-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20253811846.02234.73640.37923.1578359787720.3610238170.9910238177.248.231023817TT14.02292.02255337.708268361467.820592687390.75653889383471645142240WETM
2024-10-29 16:00:03FORECAST20253811845.5935.99640.79320.8392727362520.6039373341.2339373346.697.923937334TT13.5994.5955336.171439192067.00556830746190.74185619587411645142240WETM
2024-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253811847.1233.9840.5515.00151128802900.425.726.14TF15.1297.1255332.261635097084.98442666948770.791742034099031645123230WETMH
2024-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20253811847.35430.238.77716.09592103948100.276.036.3TF15.35499.35455332.999031445735.3599261163740.798837119174771645122220WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:05FORECAST20253811848.41628.07638.24618.3652434083100.296.336.62TT16.41695.41655334.521549335156.14356967886480.829178709373931645122220WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:04FORECAST20253811828.99425.53827.26619.68044841966300.056.646.69TF-3.00672.99455335.399928863666.60082099996010.13067338350467161511227WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20253811832.28825.728.99415.0523599886200.16.656.75TT0.28877.28855332.295941590435.00183813557670.220271457772221615122214WETL
2024-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20253811841.79233.65637.72413.07223208066200.066.46.46TF9.79296.79255330.956714353524.32634297868250.596205007294441635113213.5WETM
2024-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20253811838.1233.06235.5918.468212035368900.035.295.32TF6.12108.1255327.816699052422.77602131631060.440961321952741625113212WETM
2024-10-28 08:00:04FORECAST20253811844.54643.48444.0157.915575667222200.185.255.43TF12.546119.54655327.437317896222.59185486607990.704571898923821645123230WETMH
2024-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20253811843.77243.71843.7459.079392684154600.185.395.57TF11.772118.77255328.235650783422.98018036640170.675427109289441635123227WETMH