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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 2, 2024

[ Friday, November 1, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 3, 2024 ]

DAY 33 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/03/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.02°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.136
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 113

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.34 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.56 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.33 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 24 in
SWE DAY: 61
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-03 07:00:02OBSERVATION20253311330.5200427.5199829.0200124.0534295833330.340000000000031.564.335.89TF-1.47996112.5200461344.15140817779 8.27802166260940.1364477770692316 15152235WETL
2024-11-03 03:00:03OBSERVATION20253311330.5200427.5199829.0200124.0534295833330.340000000000031.564.335.89TF-1.47996112.5200461344.15140817779 8.27802166260940.1364477770692316 15152235WETL
2024-11-03 00:00:01FORECAST20253311328.77824.63826.70822.2102781816690.3433072721.5633072724.335.893307272TF-3.222110.77860341.99006007117.59569436954460.10060017142891615152235WETL
2024-11-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253311328.2224.40426.31220.6223938994860.452756151.672756154.336.00275615TT-3.78110.2260340.955833194657.03132549446750.0907134432644321615152235WETL
2024-11-02 08:00:01FORECAST20253311329.82224.96227.39220.8044719949840.5192916191.7392916194.336.069291619TT-2.178111.82260341.0746368387.09587773029550.121157479395031615152235WETL
2024-11-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253311328.61624.33226.47421.3769053060090.5464569881.7664569884.336.096456988TT-3.384110.61660341.447784595667.2990969582480.0976523983840421615152235WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253311329.62425.32227.47321.7338478279090.6385830222.3485830224.336.678583022TT-2.376111.62461342.651975248197.44714588797640.117048020266441615152235WETL
2024-11-01 20:00:01FORECAST20253311329.5725.4327.512.2431097731750.6145672612.3745672614.336.704567261TT-2.43111.5761336.424080508754.11887694800810.115944548990871615153252.5WETL
2024-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253311329.8426.07827.95912.3809044903640.6559058662.4159058664.336.745905866TT-2.16111.8461336.51558069634.16636726412030.12153602191731615153252.5WETL
2024-11-01 12:00:01FORECAST20253311329.85826.34828.10316.8606010242710.6043310352.3643310354.336.694331035TT-2.142111.85861339.472868254515.72371659020430.121915392448551615152235WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:01FORECAST20253311329.80425.9727.88717.5924768923750.5799215732.5899215734.336.919921573TT-2.196111.80461339.952828918055.98061228723830.120779764404061615152235WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253311330.00226.1528.07617.6253002324670.5858270882.5958270884.336.925827088TT-1.998111.00261339.974333408425.99214969765620.124980220773281615152235WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253311330.30826.25828.28319.7016406582980.6185042712.7085042714.337.038504271TT-1.692112.30861341.331028105116.72478126125420.131670057353011615152235WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253311330.7426.81628.77815.1693368674660.6807090292.6207090294.336.950709029TT-1.26113.7461338.360326225825.13270177110520.141527485209111615152235WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253311330.90226.49228.69715.3312645735410.6728350092.6828350094.337.012835009TT-1.098112.90261338.467052002945.18912792368360.145349390795091615152235WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253311330.95627.0529.00317.9415879032140.7728350632.8428350634.337.172835063TT-1.044112.95661340.181460116636.10339556972610.146638604045311615152235WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253311330.9226.56428.74217.6619017590770.7814964852.7914964854.337.121496485TT-1.08112.9261339.998311095626.00501676882310.145778281025331615152235WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253311331.127.17629.13818.013249900450.7543311162.8543311164.337.184331116TT-0.9113.161340.228366155796.12861858278620.150113818817051615152235WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253311331.67626.49229.08423.1325406046210.6334649092.7634649094.587.343464909TT-0.324116.67661343.557180807387.94735043503560.164558227823411615152235WETL
2024-10-30 20:00:01FORECAST20253311331.89226.58229.23720.2014695189320.55118142.81118144.767.5711814TT-0.108116.89261341.656552489476.90196443105950.17019913601091615152235WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253311331.78426.81629.320.3438075221390.5114175992.8714175994.767.631417599TT-0.216116.78461341.749177623546.95247949042270.167363405424581615152235WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253311332.37827.26629.82219.9955081722680.4952758582.3152758584.767.075275858TT0.378117.37861341.522465755716.82891525503160.183337041512371615152235WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253311332.01825.62828.82319.0542252768270.3696852392.0196852394.736.749685239TT0.018000000000001115.01861340.908769997266.49575250237370.173546064381461615152235WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253311330.84824.65627.75218.7596659012440.3645671261.9245671264.716.634567126TT-1.152113.84861340.71642214316.39172624647160.14406780319631615152235WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253311332.23424.85428.54418.4061808431990.141732362.081732364.646.72173236TT0.234115.23461340.485405647356.26703595081520.179380131735731615152235WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253311331.47823.12627.30217.0110991405860.1736221411.7236221414.66.323622141TT-0.522113.47861339.571637078555.77648678367440.159494820564271615152235WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253311332.73822.38827.56316.0295251371410.1629922141.5029922144.566.062992214TT0.738113.73861338.926769771965.43283517570960.193464511072531615152235WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253311332.12621.88427.00513.7580791101250.1236221140.9036221144.565.463622114TF0.126111.12661337.42831223764.6423654137610.17644788180871615133231.5WETL
2024-10-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253311332.21623.39627.80614.7967482300730.3629923221.1529923224.545.692992322TF0.216112.21661338.114588069085.0029964325730.178889312278551615142228WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253311334.2524.29629.27314.6327996648180.3224411191.0324411194.575.602441119TF2.25114.2561338.006383269094.94597969180630.239584924476061615143242WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253311333.18824.11628.65217.2626961704320.2799214111.4099214114.45.809921411TF1.188111.18861339.736670748065.86477092507780.206592189949491615142228WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253311333.29624.13428.71513.2034017513990.2444883211.4344883214.385.814488321TF1.296111.29661337.061080125884.45035285566250.209819452176121615143242WETL
2024-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253311333.45824.85429.15613.2562174853510.2177166531.5577166534.385.937716653TF1.458110.45861337.096069832314.46861881515410.214715403633461615153252.5WETL
2024-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253311333.823.48628.64310.2049488775430.1834646660.4034646664.364.763464666TF1.8111.861335.066928414583.41934087502610.225266121263091615123221WETL
2024-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20253311334.10623.37828.7429.98490025276580.0570866450.2470866454.484.727086645TF2.106112.10661334.919983770893.34414263061020.234949692708911615123221WETL
2024-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253311334.14223.55828.8510.7194261942810.0610236550.2610236554.614.871023655TF2.142112.14261335.4101670983.59540453101860.236103841457051615123221WETL
2024-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253311333.94423.0928.51718.78291268161700.384.945.32TF1.944107.94461340.731607567756.3999320328120.229794732886251615122214WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253311334.1624.00829.08412.45597035089400.215.215.42TF2.16110.1661336.565413403184.19224881048650.236682083097431615123221WETL
2024-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20253311333.42223.3628.39113.32954050110700.345.285.62TF1.422109.42261337.144637553464.49398310099990.213621725246841615123221WETL
2024-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253311334.17824.06229.1220.3613283873080.0094488241.2294488245.086.309448824TT2.178113.17861341.760576849316.95869933506460.237261101608171615142228WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253311335.74424.15229.94820.3381999221480.0027559071.4127559075.166.572755907TT3.744120.74461341.745529163546.95048889462840.290480841792881625142232WETL
2024-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20253311335.97825.17830.57821.2351091840970.0027559071.6427559075.346.982755907TT3.978119.97861342.328423137777.26938144215040.298887808618121625152240WETL
2024-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20253311334.23224.58429.40817.4684895286060.0145669371.7845669375.196.974566937TT2.232120.23261339.871581363235.93704316011420.239002808440151615152235WETL
2024-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253311334.03424.7129.37218.5313949214210.0149606381.5949606385.246.834960638TT2.034120.03461340.567261734886.3111864245160.232650760414471615152235WETL
2024-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253311335.31227.55431.43317.6568931114370.0259842661.5759842665.186.755984266TT3.312126.31261339.995030058496.00325590416280.275257677426461625152240WETL
2024-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20253311335.52825.86230.69516.9118434072340.0712598811.7312598815.066.791259881TT3.528128.52861339.506501817675.74168079447840.282820116309111625152240WETL
2024-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253311335.65426.99631.32515.7756602340450.0854331171.6454331175.036.675433117TT3.654126.65461338.759725617765.3441583323240.287277094682841625152240WETL
2024-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20253311333.92625.17829.55217.1084008705220.098425251.688425254.816.49842525TT1.926125.92661339.635474113065.81061984097590.229225888354241615152235WETL
2024-10-26 00:00:03FORECAST20253311335.8725.48430.67710.5584116021270.0263779670.5663779675.045.606377967TF3.87120.8761335.302792821483.54026489795190.294993942861651625133236WETL
2024-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20253311335.04226.00630.52410.9424345212110.0263779670.5263779675.255.776377967TF3.042123.04261335.558810038213.67183030685870.265946652342891625133236WETL
2024-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20253311336.06826.61831.34310.6428575881570.0720472830.3920472835.535.922047283TF4.068123.06861335.359111992663.56917926982880.302150404613411625123224WETL
2024-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20253311336.6826.7831.7313.1770629233880.767716951.207716955.196.39771695TT4.68120.6861337.043629255864.44124511063160.324746019731851625143248WETL
2024-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20253311333.31426.9630.13718.5110286023690.7925201131.4325201135.316.742520113TT1.314111.31461340.553949452116.30400389895770.210360190310311615142228WETL
2024-10-25 04:00:05FORECAST20253311331.71225.05228.38220.3165830405380.7389767771.4489767775.136.578976777TT-0.288103.71261341.73146413486.94281566865920.165489890766141615142228WETL
2024-10-25 00:00:03FORECAST20253311331.47823.07227.27515.6293340942550.0192913490.3992913495.155.549291349TF-0.52298.47861338.663393467185.29308332199250.159494820564271615122214WETL
2024-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20253311333.11622.65827.88714.5458216319260.0192913490.5392913494.55.039291349TF1.11698.11661337.948960135974.91574529483260.204457077541951615133231.5WETL
2024-10-24 16:00:03FORECAST20253311336.84227.17632.00915.7869631166720.0980315490.7980315494.45.198031549TF4.842101.84261338.767165252515.34810474298110.330841333354011625132224WETL
2024-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253311338.89430.90234.89818.111082556380.7909453091.6509453094.285.930945309TT6.89497.89461340.292388299636.16306353780230.411447374559451625152240WETL
2024-10-24 08:00:04FORECAST20253311334.71824.74629.73216.4298102682550.2192914571.0292914574.345.369291457TF2.71890.71861339.189940322235.57282636439490.254987753701911625142232WETL
2024-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20253311333.0824.92629.00313.4169196345620.2472442280.6672442283.754.417244228TF1.0897.0861337.202503958844.52421889618890.203394454796911615133231.5WETL
2024-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20253311330.07421.8325.95213.3502347515950.0531496350.3731496353.393.763149635TF-1.92685.07461337.158343380684.50114303259110.126532590887091615123221DRYL
2024-10-23 20:00:04FORECAST20253311331.51429.87630.69513.9453800508540.133858340.403858343.543.94385834TF-0.48688.51461337.55220070974.70729372589910.160407792845391615123221DRYL
2024-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20253311331.13628.97630.05612.9468151578070.1003937550.2203937553.543.760393755TF-0.86485.13661336.891028182314.36166587020010.150991108421141615123221DRYL
2024-10-23 12:00:04FORECAST20253311333.76428.70631.23516.1800305086120.5204727220.6604727223.454.110472722TF1.76485.76461339.025752081135.48544701187780.224141903312851615132221WETL
2024-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20253311329.08428.27428.67913.5556849138350.165354420.275354423.593.86535442TF-2.91683.08461337.294374199964.57225625986380.10634368849111615123221DRYL
2024-10-23 04:00:05FORECAST20253311329.08428.20228.64313.4460395675280.165354420.285354423.633.91535442TF-2.91681.08461337.221785639524.53429747274140.10634368849111615123221DRYL