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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 1, 2024

[ Thursday, October 31, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 2, 2024 ]

DAY 32 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/02/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.186
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 130

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.89 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.55 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 19 in
SWE DAY: 62
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.65 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 112

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-02 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253211232.4199429.9600631.1919.4454991666670.889999999999991.324.235.55TF0.41994130.4199462342.13779549832 6.65304021724780.1864911895413216 15142228WETL
2024-11-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253211232.14427.87830.01119.3984074878611.3791346031.8091346034.236.039134603TT0.144130.14461341.133339417896.61744352572320.178233086514811615152235WETL
2024-11-01 12:00:01FORECAST20253211232.05427.19429.62414.6752682354141.4287409291.8587409294.236.088740929TT0.054000000000002130.05461338.034416525534.96074573531390.175590145184951615153252.5WETL
2024-11-01 08:00:01FORECAST20253211231.9126.99629.45315.4779464496511.6779536622.1079536624.236.337953662TT-0.09129.9161338.563691442555.24027068594410.171413270193821615152235WETL
2024-11-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253211231.40627.10429.25515.4548421248941.6814969712.1114969714.236.341496971TT-0.594129.40661338.548471848635.23221318404480.157297967701311615152235WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253211233.15226.38429.76817.3323844997091.4952763982.1852763984.236.415276398TT1.152130.15262340.761349537185.9062067328180.209520141190611615152235WETL
2024-10-31 20:00:01FORECAST20253211233.78226.92430.35312.6136209253791.3688983772.0388983774.236.268898377TT1.782130.78262337.660829462264.2591257041860.230613416114281615153252.5WETL
2024-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253211233.4426.630.0212.8316761875331.4350401452.1050401454.236.335040145TT1.44130.4462337.804925716184.33460342134370.219018926337481615153252.5WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253211233.0826.85229.96615.0567320481221.4952763982.1652763984.236.395276398TT1.08130.0862339.270743890975.10830868253350.207183795614691615152235WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253211233.02627.39230.20914.7595805090961.5070874282.1070874284.236.337087428TT1.026130.02662339.075465918785.00461163788740.205441672091911615152235WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253211233.27827.6830.47915.1451485021691.661418222.201418224.236.43141822TT1.278130.27862339.328819757075.13918536628670.213645760701711615152235WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253211233.6228.14830.88420.6111104942611.6877961872.4777961874.236.707796187TT1.62132.6262342.893898746197.06742403486580.225079098841491615152235WETL
2024-10-30 20:00:01FORECAST20253211233.54827.84230.69518.0207478320861.7043316292.7943316294.237.024331629TT1.548132.54862341.21054896156.14886926048280.222643723269341615152235WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253211233.83627.73430.78518.3406815326941.7200796692.8900796694.237.120079669TT1.836132.83662341.419058188616.26185821542950.232474918240131615152235WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253211234.1627.6830.9218.0647180093361.0909454712.3509454714.236.580945471TT2.16133.1662341.239215529546.16439020226810.243817317237331615152235WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253211232.93627.91430.42517.5251617691860.9145674232.1545674234.236.384567423TT0.936130.93662340.887227753025.97410381142090.20255750186281615152235WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253211231.67626.9629.31817.1837550925670.803150042.043150044.236.27315004TT-0.324130.67662340.664256563595.85389115358020.164762182985431615152235WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253211231.26226.40228.83217.7637325380241.3303156792.5003156794.086.580315679TT-0.738131.26262341.042922541166.05819526000730.153409163718421615152235WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253211230.8325.30428.06716.2137218057381.1401580962.0801580964.076.150158096TT-1.17129.8362340.029675944345.51314657145660.142126800865621615152235WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253211230.6524.90827.77915.2970279206441.0783470391.8283470394.075.898347039TT-1.35128.6562339.428550485935.19224801384690.137595404665741615152235WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253211229.96622.29826.13213.1609073986560.6547247631.2747247634.075.344724763TF-2.034126.96662338.022338595484.44868069693230.121278582375951615143242WETL
2024-10-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253211230.09223.2726.68113.0322350759480.6818901321.2618901324.075.331890132TF-1.908128.09262337.93738949614.40407950086540.12417761577471615143242WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253211230.16422.38826.27612.9598410055470.5574806161.2074806164.075.277480616TF-1.836128.16462337.8895829324.37899527222920.125855738262871615143242WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253211230.16421.4725.81715.8182974534190.8118114621.6218114623.915.531811462TF-1.836126.16462339.770546591325.37459157189210.125855738262871615152235WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253211230.221.90226.05111.501593521420.8248035951.6848035953.895.574803595TF-1.8126.262336.924731933033.87517131400710.126700686433571615153252.5WETL
2024-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253211230.23623.50426.8712.0572468072460.9389768851.8289768853.895.718976885TF-1.764125.23662337.292802016024.06682256021460.127549564928431615153252.5WETL
2024-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253211230.3823.2726.8259.26053032893920.0858268180.6658268183.914.575826818TF-1.62126.3862335.434946150323.10630549221110.130984463343561615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20253211230.61423.66627.149.59907339533460.0767716950.66677169544.666771695TF-1.386125.61462335.66054268063.2220301851090.136701057892341615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253211231.40623.14427.27510.3110980065230.0767716950.7067716954.14.806771695TF-0.594126.40662336.134385276213.46591458994530.157297967701311615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253211230.4723.0926.7818.8226662816170.0594488510.9594488514.365.319448851TF-1.53122.4762341.732860616436.43232359284550.133163352355541615132221WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253211230.93823.5427.23912.4958305674620.0460630170.8360630174.585.416063017TF-1.062123.93862337.582957504474.21837943943880.144893455291921615133231.5WETL
2024-10-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253211230.7423.84627.29313.3503111176760.0484252231.0084252234.615.618425223TF-1.26123.7462338.147331887574.51437208431090.139848663715451615143242WETL
2024-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253211230.84823.8127.32920.0542493894060.4732286021.8332286024.476.303228602TT-1.152126.84862342.532955975336.86924132321970.142585416943891615152235WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253211231.89225.05228.47220.2541899033640.5732286562.1032286564.476.573228656TT-0.108132.89262342.662610923786.94035359443280.170895651685471615152235WETL
2024-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253211231.2825.55628.41821.1319629300570.6055121382.3055121384.676.975512138TT-0.72132.2862343.231039878447.25314561115590.153891760467231615152235WETL
2024-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20253211231.04624.81827.93217.3883880754820.744094892.384094894.586.96409489TT-0.954134.04662340.797924672825.92592656952980.147696039835411615152235WETL
2024-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253211230.77625.35828.06718.4523698559280.8059059472.1559059474.666.815905947TT-1.224133.77662341.49180852186.30133315361380.140756931065881615152235WETL
2024-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253211232.52225.7929.15617.6137061023681.0795281422.0795281424.656.729528142TT0.522138.52262340.945024095836.00530545148880.189604508656931615152235WETL
2024-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20253211233.20627.60830.40716.6429839042961.0531501752.2131501754.516.723150175TT1.206141.20662340.310685375.66378525907280.211282507267481615152235WETL
2024-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253211233.29626.5129.90315.4411908086020.9736225732.1136225734.486.593622573TT1.296139.29662339.523178615875.24264218495080.214238966748471615152235WETL
2024-10-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253211232.70226.4229.56116.5787303806880.8744099212.0944099214.316.404409921TT0.702139.70262340.268642345695.64122207845210.19517256490571615152235WETL
2024-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253211234.84425.1630.00210.5353274737630.2468505271.1068505274.475.576850527TF2.844132.84462336.283429562033.5428560544360.268709948388531625143248WETL
2024-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20253211235.36625.7930.57810.8804398649430.177165451.067165454.685.74716545TF3.366136.36662336.512658363333.66140574311420.288528977709231625143248WETL
2024-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20253211235.09623.28829.19210.3242587992250.1059055690.9459055694.95.845905569TF3.096135.09662336.143135539153.47042872488930.278192058828741625133236WETL
2024-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20253211234.68220.67827.6810.1678954025740.1295276291.1795276294.455.629527629TF2.682131.68262336.03915474313.41681097659730.262701132579611625143248WETL
2024-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20253211231.65817.97824.81813.5870138251110.1622048121.4522048124.55.952204812TF-0.342125.65862338.303454716314.59653371631340.164257561486661615143242WETL
2024-10-25 04:00:05FORECAST20253211229.96618.82424.39515.3585398166350.2405513111.5605513114.285.840551311TF-2.034119.96662339.468930966375.21374709275760.121278582375951615152235WETL
2024-10-25 00:00:03FORECAST20253211230.77621.225.98815.4490425857850.2114174371.4314174374.15.531417437TF-1.224114.77662339.528331506255.24538765252070.140756931065881615142228WETL
2024-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20253211230.54220.69625.61914.380019516910.2496064341.3796064343.645.019606434TF-1.458112.54262338.825816766354.87232185793290.134924274883881615143242WETL
2024-10-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253211232.91821.68627.30215.3322666307450.2866143281.4166143283.685.096614328TF0.918112.91862339.451684279825.20456373163370.201983579974751615142228WETL
2024-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253211232.7219.70626.21315.1367974199420.43307111.44307113.75.1430711TF0.72106.7262339.323334951965.13626858102690.195734772443781615142228WETL
2024-10-24 08:00:04FORECAST20253211232.19820.35426.27614.9800977869330.3771655581.4071655583.745.147165558TF0.198104.19862339.220396541665.08155471151640.179830793271441615142228WETL
2024-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20253211232.0917.76224.92611.5467206621390.0937008381.1337008383.044.173700838TF0.090000000000003112.0962336.954643970513.89072114973820.176644334307681615143242WETL
2024-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20253211232.84619.34626.09612.878667181545012.713.71TF0.846102.84662337.835968063824.35087699464890.199697623840211615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20253211233.49417.97825.73612.7705434335390.0059055150.9759055152.833.805905515TF1.494105.49462337.764535746834.31343667406410.220827073974881615133231.5DRYL
2024-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20253211235.47419.79627.63512.0495286225480.0062992160.9262992162.733.656299216TF3.474102.47462337.287692973144.0641577105130.292713770959811625133236DRYL
2024-10-23 12:00:04FORECAST20253211235.97818.87827.42811.887177798510.0019685051.1519685052.443.591968505TF3.97899.97862337.180201829634.00812100928630.312604972900931625143248DRYM
2024-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20253211235.16818.7726.96911.9593440190370.0019685051.1419685052.563.701968505TF3.168102.16862337.227987962474.03302552089080.280930860065671625143248DRYM
2024-10-23 04:00:05FORECAST20253211234.55620.08427.3211.84803377626100.992.763.75TF2.55699.55662337.15427826213.99461527666020.258075536071421625133236DRYL
2024-10-23 00:00:04FORECAST20253211225.80820.62423.21612.0674523983270.0185039470.6385039472.653.288503947FF-6.19292.80862337.299557440724.07034635339250.0505155993459551615133231.5DRYL
2024-10-22 20:00:04FORECAST20253211220.13819.36419.75114.06089183627700.693.123.81TF-11.86285.13862338.615730163664.76123915589320.0111767242071091615133231.5DRYL
2024-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20253211222.76618.9520.85811.00555604849900.452.983.43FF-9.23498.76662336.595712783493.70442298272320.023551522990871615123221DRYL
2024-10-22 12:00:04FORECAST20253211224.20621.54222.87418.6624769543580.1035433631.5335433633.454.983543363TF-7.794101.20662341.628609895086.37563605911610.0342468951004651615152235WETL
2024-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20253211222.24419.41820.83115.3871256952130.0003937011.1403937013.284.420393701TF-9.756100.24462339.487694482245.22373982697630.0204412145596061615142228WETL
2024-10-22 04:00:05FORECAST20253211222.38820.62421.50616.4618433865080.0003937012.2403937014.356.590393701TT-9.612100.38862340.192142052345.60018976378630.0212624259712141615152235WETL