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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 31, 2024

[ Wednesday, October 30, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, November 1, 2024 ]

DAY 31 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/01/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.109
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 152

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.61 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 10 in
SWE DAY: 63
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 111

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 31.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-11-01 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253111129.8200224.9000827.360059.86874666666670.330000000000040.610000000000044.054.66TF-2.17998151.8200263336.83404527901 3.32412986156710.1091522985659716 15133231.5WETL
2024-11-01 00:00:01FORECAST20253111128.83222.125.46612.1506446148270.5925200050.8725200054.054.922520005TF-3.168150.83262337.35461864134.09907608028110.0906014812744511615133231.5WETL
2024-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253111129.17421.86625.5210.0434399586190.5740160580.8540160584.054.904016058TF-2.826151.17462335.956363038173.37415756088970.096738916526051615133231.5WETL
2024-10-31 08:00:01FORECAST20253111129.0322.65825.8449.74436836806960.4956695590.7756695594.054.825669559TF-2.97151.0362335.757304094643.27174285336810.0941186331550341615133231.5WETL
2024-10-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253111128.79622.44225.6199.56924698719580.4354333060.7154333064.054.765433306TF-3.204150.79662335.640674908883.21182851715210.089972584519261615133231.5WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:01FORECAST20253111130.93822.17226.55514.7047619761080.4377955120.9677955124.055.017795512TF-1.062152.93863340.021228498354.99993123189190.13325274430181615133231.5WETL
2024-10-30 20:00:01FORECAST20253111131.40622.53226.96912.0104218517890.562992431.272992434.055.32299243TF-0.594153.40663338.250350470334.0625294006640.144352272577651615143242WETL
2024-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253111131.35222.58626.96912.2702833230440.6389767231.3489767234.055.398976723TF-0.648153.35263338.421675190274.15252983724390.143040749031761615143242WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253111131.44223.79227.61714.2779619686990.7338586641.4438586644.055.493858664TF-0.558153.44263339.741517752014.85081646965140.1452310978691615143242WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:01FORECAST20253111130.95624.56627.76114.2611779287650.7370082721.4170082724.055.467008272TF-1.044151.95663339.730511844034.84495727723830.133668512432911615143242WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253111131.02823.5427.28414.1686303160370.7618114351.4218114354.055.471811435TF-0.972153.02863339.669816567154.81265606045590.135340472828571615143242WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253111131.0124.13427.57212.4156631590650.610236551.200236554.055.25023655TF-0.99154.0163338.51747370914.20291892702980.134921148867691615143242WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20253111129.85822.76626.31211.4568776358330.4082679370.9582679374.055.008267937TF-2.142152.85863337.885025700133.87110739442670.10991606291011615133231.5WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253111129.98421.99225.98810.7484028064110.2562993510.7662993514.054.816299351TF-2.016151.98463337.416700721013.62669061295980.112477237116681615133231.5WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253111129.42621.86625.64610.319176964360.125984320.635984324.054.68598432TF-2.574151.42663337.132558203073.47893052854490.101452204336861615133231.5WETL
2024-10-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253111129.89421.63225.76310.1226807380180.1082677750.5982677754.054.648267775TF-2.106151.89463337.002376580533.4113674660780.110643532186041615133231.5WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253111130.12821.9226.02410.4914589975250.1468504730.6668504734.054.716850473TF-1.872152.12863337.24664412393.53820933887870.115455997908421615133231.5WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253111129.7322326.36611.8897925137420.3240159230.8340159233.894.724015923TF-2.268149.73263338.170782013144.02078043234620.107396879186551615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253111129.44422.92826.1867.54975716346710.3732285480.8832285483.874.753228548TF-2.556150.44463335.291768162112.53137142853340.10179513834541615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253111129.3922.58625.9887.69790060238230.4023624220.9123624223.874.782362422TF-2.61149.3963335.390564936942.58180323186140.100768854108971615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253111130.12823.21626.6728.8441575794890.1267717220.6167717223.874.486771722TF-1.872150.12863336.15374770692.97299671565560.115455997908421615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253111130.30823.75627.0329.22806631224990.1070866720.6170866723.974.587086672TF-1.692149.30863336.408859450293.10440326303570.119257466706271615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253111130.66824.18827.4289.9438058764960.1161417950.6561417954.074.726141795TF-1.332148.66863336.883812861623.34990723802970.127122582332111615133231.5WETL
2024-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253111130.07424.00827.04118.5223707589550.3220474180.9820474184.285.262047418TF-1.926146.07463342.509723739046.34409209164180.11433248061991615132221WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253111130.39824.40427.40112.263882811550.1625985130.8325985134.545.372598513TF-1.602147.39863338.417456739224.15031203083250.121190874406251615133231.5WETL
2024-10-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253111130.16424.20627.18513.1105611316890.2862206270.9862206274.585.566220627TF-1.836147.16463338.974890665344.44415102617540.116209340925191615133231.5WETL
2024-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253111130.23622.76626.50117.639643463880.7488193021.3788193024.455.828819302TF-1.764150.23663341.936463800226.03163730873590.117726443859811615142228WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253111131.3723.64827.50917.4291975695050.8366146251.5466146254.455.996614625TT-0.63155.3763341.799606378835.95729286875580.143477028566751615152235WETL
2024-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253111131.08223.84627.46418.0935988236921.0326777231.7326777234.646.372677723TT-0.918155.08263342.231431600436.19219822823590.136603784764321615152235WETL
2024-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253111131.17223.57627.37413.4705845044381.0279533111.6679533114.556.217953311TT-0.828157.17263339.211558928624.56937796943030.138727123510411615153252.5WETL
2024-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253111131.5525.01628.28314.2468553013340.7653547441.3753547444.636.005354744TF-0.45156.5563339.721119603094.83995763379230.147889076369681615143242WETL
2024-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253111131.60425.59228.59812.3201173107290.4712600971.0412600974.615.651260097TF-0.396159.60463338.454517444364.16979935926070.149230169087971615143242WETL
2024-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253111132.43226.07829.25511.5999154557750.6118113541.2018113544.475.671811354TF0.432162.43263337.97947615813.92053334922110.170805555493871615143242WETL
2024-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253111131.85625.95228.90410.7538007610270.5913389021.1713389024.455.621338902TF-0.144159.85663337.420272132183.62855037924110.155595407376961615143242WETL
2024-10-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253111131.62225.80828.71512.0966261906410.7208665311.2508665314.285.530866531TF-0.378160.62263338.307196879574.09237569825580.149678994084371615143242WETL
2024-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253111132.91825.71829.3189.30985285139970.2854332250.9054332254.425.325433225TF0.918151.91863336.463175405083.1324226529360.184352750256361615133231.5WETL
2024-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20253111132.95425.71829.33610.0687210084540.3153545010.9253545014.645.565354501TF0.954154.95463336.966616098343.39282284665710.185382100036971615133231.5WETL
2024-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20253111133.5325.80829.6699.84929199412280.2066930250.8766930254.865.736693025TF1.53153.5363336.821144420513.31744980119220.202332432705321615133231.5WETL
2024-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20253111131.49623.12627.3119.49240615250130.3082678831.0782678834.425.498267883TF-0.504151.49663336.584371739043.19499556113150.146556054057711615143242WETL
2024-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20253111129.73222.26225.99712.5966709099570.480315221.380315224.415.79031522TF-2.268147.73263338.636699928474.26569506703280.107396879186551615143242WETL
2024-10-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253111128.50821.25424.88113.8290029573550.4700789941.4000789944.25.600078994TF-3.492143.50863339.446957286574.69421297618120.0850573846945041615143242WETL
2024-10-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253111130.59621.21825.90713.99321486420.1673229251.2773229254.045.317322925TF-1.404137.59663339.554735118154.7514623666650.125521451232261615143242WETL
2024-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253111130.45221.81226.13212.5884181741060.2740158961.1440158963.634.774015896TF-1.548136.45263338.631265207424.26283197325750.122361413619661615143242WETL
2024-10-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253111130.2922.20826.24913.3830467743420.4090553391.1390553393.674.809055339TF-1.71134.2963339.154034236384.53891430389220.11887340402781615143242WETL
2024-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253111125.73619.92222.82912.4634758846320.4255907811.0155907813.694.705590781TF-6.264127.73663338.548972331694.21949695242280.0474994327992281615143242WETL
2024-10-24 08:00:03FORECAST20253111126.02420.71423.36912.4852400450150.4326773991.0426773993.734.772677399TF-5.976126.02463338.563309111114.22704418468670.0506441049997281615143242WETL
2024-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20253111126.85217.94222.39710.8792396124110.3311025411.0511025413.034.081102541TF-5.148133.85263337.503251578043.67177874388530.0606110413108071615143242WETL
2024-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20253111126.45619.41822.93712.8886055815450.3220474181.0420474182.673.712047418TF-5.544124.45663338.828876052774.36703174308220.0556684498853261615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20253111125.84418.0521.94712.7453176868690.2570867530.9970867532.83.797086753TF-6.156125.84463338.73456963234.31727970148860.0486599021428041615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253111128.07621.18224.62912.0023398337570.1145669910.9545669912.73.654566991TF-3.924121.07663338.245020243024.05973168003280.0780646808297141615133231.5DRYL
2024-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253111127.28420.94824.11611.9092000009050.1350394431.1950394432.393.585039443TF-4.716118.28463338.183585053894.02749595142970.066386155429441615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20253111127.39220.22823.8111.9549593388870.1133858881.1833858882.523.703385888TF-4.608121.39263338.213769805774.04333186587960.0678942583235321615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 04:00:05FORECAST20253111126.63620.19223.41411.9079593762610.1248032171.0348032172.723.754803217TF-5.364118.63663338.182766637724.02706664687350.0578742954424261615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 00:00:04FORECAST20253111127.33821.27224.30511.7565330414640.1645670180.6445670182.633.274567018FF-4.662121.33863338.082854231673.97468224652720.0671369436056031615133231.5DRYL
2024-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20253111127.10420.53423.81914.0608918362770.19685050.71685053.093.8068505TF-4.896119.10463339.59914072564.77506678543530.0639302638927421615133231.5DRYL
2024-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20253111135.7823.32429.55211.0055560484990.1295276290.4795276292.953.429527629FF3.78129.7863337.58678484543.71533028184880.276837358993631625123224DRYL
2024-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20253111135.02422.04628.53517.4591105925760.5232286291.6832286293.24.883228629TF3.024131.02463341.819063911585.96785683948310.250394004057641625152240WETL
2024-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20253111135.97823.30629.64215.3813013862250.4732286021.3632286023.064.423228602TF3.978131.97863340.463989452915.23677923293160.283982055008471625142232WETL
2024-10-22 04:00:05FORECAST20253111131.17220.76825.9716.453227349240.6992129763.5992129762.996.589212976TT-0.828132.17263341.163955077665.61324811625860.138727123510411615152235WETL
2024-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253111125.66423.2724.46716.2343617013090.1917323873.6817323872.396.071732387TT-6.336122.66463341.021191018645.53626136280780.0467381403387111615152235WETL
2024-10-21 20:00:04FORECAST20253111123.8121.34422.57715.9655811284630.0307086783.6407086782.46.040708678TT-8.19120.8163340.84575929675.4418006223440.030275223070031615152235WETL
2024-10-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253111131.56821.34426.45613.1343036980920.0440945123.2540945122.135.384094512TT-0.432126.56863338.990504962894.45240424295220.148335210367161615153252.5WETL
2024-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20253111121.61419.4920.5526.29870353875390.0594488512.5394488511.84.339448851TF-10.386110.61463334.455956966732.10663891970360.0172901173085041615154270WETL
2024-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253111126.47422.85624.6655.597397373147102.232.014.24TF-5.526118.47463333.986261225821.86945382125260.0558860137826981615154270WETL
2024-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20253111126.6923.84625.26816.05478851929101.892.083.97TF-5.31129.6963340.903997789225.47314158988680.0585492338537291615152235DRYL