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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 30, 2024

[ Tuesday, October 29, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 31, 2024 ]

DAY 30 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/31/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.161
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 186

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.33 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 8 in
SWE DAY: 64
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 110

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 42.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-31 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253011031.7899425.5399828.664968.04132250.100000000000021.183.154.33TF-0.21006185.7899464336.61422469685 2.70682353887490.1605223331594716 15143242WETL
2024-10-31 00:00:01FORECAST20253011031.80224.85428.32813.1096980415840.3515749931.4315749933.154.581574993TF-0.198185.80263338.974323036444.44385101885830.160830044147931615143242WETL
2024-10-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253011031.78424.828.29211.6411737593550.5267719381.6067719383.154.756771938TF-0.216185.78463338.006713385793.93479488235250.160370915109781615153252.5WETL
2024-10-30 08:00:01FORECAST20253011031.02825.05228.0411.6030879490880.4956695591.5756695593.154.725669559TF-0.972185.02863337.981570623813.92162988911910.141859224172661615153252.5WETL
2024-10-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253011031.85625.6128.73311.3477529894350.480315221.560315223.154.71031522TF-0.144185.85663337.812945644133.83341786380310.162212561698041615153252.5WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:01FORECAST20253011031.56825.55628.56210.0475466563140.5614176261.4914176263.154.641417626TF-0.432186.56864337.942300511053.3954910315270.154928068780211615143242WETL
2024-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20253011031.83824.78228.319.80984551429040.5255908351.4455908353.154.595590835TF-0.162186.83864337.785300825893.31362161810.161750867480271615143242WETL
2024-10-29 16:00:01FORECAST20253011030.70424.22427.4649.71113779309580.4866144361.4066144363.154.556614436TF-1.296185.70464337.720077313713.27964620628840.134385799149911615143242WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253011030.84823.7227.2849.78682616642820.4862207351.4062207353.154.556220735TF-1.152185.84864337.770091697573.30569717166260.137673372657611615143242WETL
2024-10-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253011031.33424.72828.0319.66891887228580.4665356851.3865356853.154.536535685TF-0.666186.33464337.692175148173.26511824531340.149170575491111615143242WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253011031.2823.9927.6359.861359657570.4952758581.4152758583.154.565275858TF-0.72186.2864337.819333547463.33135794739210.147862425307561615143242WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253011030.79423.6327.21210.4300879345290.4901577451.2501577453.154.400157745TF-1.206183.79464338.194766994683.52740115875210.136434176101251615143242WETL
2024-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253011031.11823.30627.2125.86351599080810.4889766421.2289766423.154.378976642TF-0.882185.11864335.164883935161.96524465651110.143984048509191615144256WETL
2024-10-28 16:00:01FORECAST20253011030.97425.01627.9955.89177622378140.4913388481.2313388483.154.381338848TF-1.026183.97464335.18374264551.97482760551680.140594543520151615144256WETL
2024-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253011030.6524.9827.8158.29508563988060.4476380371.2076380373.154.357638037TF-1.35183.6564336.782584367022.79364037934480.133166930082761615143242WETL
2024-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253011031.11823.68427.4018.75367496051290.4822837251.3322837253.154.482283725TF-0.882183.11864337.086561265872.95074619087850.143984048509191615143242WETL
2024-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253011030.79423.7227.2579.42401206471990.5098427951.4598427953.154.609842795TF-1.206181.79464337.530259056443.18088923355590.136434176101251615143242WETL
2024-10-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253011030.99225.41228.20217.026671167210.5803152741.5203152743.424.940315274TF-1.008179.99264342.50995947365.83180445145120.141015253083171615152235WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:01FORECAST20253011031.33425.44828.39111.5086806539230.6283467961.4683467963.745.208346796TF-0.666181.33464338.905288349773.90035273554320.149170575491111615143242WETL
2024-10-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253011031.35225.89828.62511.788679895980.6720476071.5420476073.745.282047607TF-0.648181.35264339.08941940553.99741662148510.149608333215811615153252.5WETL
2024-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253011032.03624.65628.34614.138259884690.6114176531.3414176533.745.081417653TF0.036000000000001184.03664340.629383881344.81590675367610.166876516568621615143242WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253011032.97224.15228.56213.6860784259960.6917326571.3917326573.775.161732657TF0.972187.97264340.333728301294.65783409654320.19250153306091615143242WETL
2024-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253011032.86425.12428.99413.3087695945990.6716539061.3916539063.955.341653906TF0.864187.86464340.086767627424.52613643252520.18942795532231615143242WETL
2024-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253011033.42225.53829.488.43569672722210.6137798591.3137798593.885.193779859TF1.422190.42264336.875826364732.84178230594520.205632298655241615143242WETL
2024-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253011033.4425.28629.36310.5087561293640.5795278721.3695278723.875.239527872TF1.44189.4464338.246655386763.55455161303250.206168333020881615143242WETL
2024-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253011034.26826.29430.2819.98493007380380.5283467421.2983467423.885.178346742TF2.268192.26864337.900951959623.37391737718850.231707328717011615143242WETL
2024-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253011034.2524.63829.4448.70090843721090.5476380911.2976380913.765.057638091TF2.25194.2564337.051602888532.93265513534830.231134054555341615143242WETL
2024-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253011033.99824.2629.1297.89395431921970.5535436061.2035436063.835.033543606TF1.998191.99864336.516403158152.65644511419860.22319168332491615143242WETL
2024-10-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253011033.96224.2629.1118.52176354802560.5019687751.1919687753.624.811968775TF1.962192.96264336.932882550762.87126235665230.222069857343481615143242WETL
2024-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253011034.48425.35829.9217.84651424611610.5673231411.4373231413.65.037323141TF2.484183.48464336.484905115832.64023360159440.238647970762511615143242WETL
2024-10-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253011034.724.829.758.43191190753450.5673231411.5473231413.75.247323141TF2.7185.764336.873317011912.84048613304340.245700683462881615153252.5WETL
2024-10-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253011034.39424.94429.6698.80089584233570.6322838061.6422838063.895.532283806TF2.394184.39464337.117841624982.96693901073450.235742316784361615153252.5WETL
2024-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253011033.85425.19629.5257.73785269600610.7433074881.4633074883.735.193307488TF1.854183.85464336.412744503762.60311226202920.218723724877281615143242WETL
2024-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20253011033.20624.38628.7969.7348265010170.807087051.577087053.735.30708705TF1.206182.20664337.735731691283.28779875120860.199264521562441615153252.5WETL
2024-10-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253011032.57623.28827.93210.8660426264580.8511815621.5711815623.565.131181562TF0.576178.57664338.482185907963.67796186037270.181380212280291615153252.5WETL
2024-10-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253011030.36223.75627.05912.8840868748691.0531501751.8231501753.335.153150175TF-1.638171.36264339.808515965434.3781224405190.126794541461091615153252.5WETL
2024-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253011030.5623.79227.17610.8117818184660.8555122731.5555122732.944.495512273TF-1.44169.5664338.446429844723.65920895671980.13115238214761615153252.5WETL
2024-10-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253011029.78623.7226.75310.6534081576240.7212602321.5512602322.854.401260232TF-2.214167.78664338.342038695683.60449583510760.114692411464211615153252.5WETL
2024-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253011030.25424.72827.4919.54750488968470.582677481.292677482.994.28267748TF-1.746166.25464337.611916887793.2233514273020.124460374807281615143242WETL
2024-10-24 08:00:03FORECAST20253011030.12824.0827.1049.5827276710980.5988192211.3988192212.944.338819221TF-1.872164.12864337.635202744583.23546620007730.121775244106641615143242WETL
2024-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253011031.04624.02627.5368.71263361977690.7082680991.3682680992.383.748268099TF-0.954171.04664337.059371350352.93667481068790.142282486145621615143242DRYM
2024-10-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253011027.71622.24424.9810.3567681034510.6814964311.4014964311.993.391496431TF-4.284161.71664338.14639696953.50210381843060.0779988530016741615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20253011027.66222.7325.19610.6245782686390.7118114081.4518114082.093.541811408TF-4.338163.66264338.323031110633.59453952411810.0771772359280361615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253011027.4123.01825.21411.0728098690570.8062996481.4462996482.093.536299648TF-4.59157.4164338.618393466993.74945708902540.073429465895441615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253011029.322.60425.95210.8172947067651.0086619621.4186619622.033.448661962TF-2.7155.364338.45006287923.66111407368740.10513772146511615143242DRYM
2024-10-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253011029.76822.87426.32111.01198858881.0338588261.5038588262.093.593858826TF-2.232157.76864338.578334981123.72842076122690.114327899439841615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-23 04:00:04FORECAST20253011031.4623.16227.31110.8880688622460.8653547981.5253547982.13.625354798TF-0.54156.4664338.496699056753.68557536897280.152252818042631615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20253011033.51221.8327.67110.2770969091630.4570868611.2070868611.93.107086861FF1.512157.51264338.093826655863.47462302093220.208320722817541615143242DRYM
2024-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20253011033.09823.01828.05812.2755325740220.488189241.328189242.283.60818924TF1.098156.09864339.40926826694.16642952853520.196125573919951615143242DRYM
2024-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20253011034.80824.29629.55210.0698719196780.3192915111.0192915112.283.299291511TF2.808157.80864337.957041298323.40318412022760.24926849998351625143248DRYM
2024-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20253011036.55426.16831.36113.1280950744890.9062997021.6762997022.684.356299702TF4.554159.55464339.968426558974.46313782619060.31054168173121625153260WETL
2024-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20253011036.64426.1531.39711.9508569578450.6665357931.5465357932.43.946535793TF4.644159.64464339.196009224674.05368298691590.313870103554711625153260DRYH
2024-10-22 04:00:05FORECAST20253011035.00623.23429.1210.2479569351451.5362213023.5762213022.315.886221302TT3.006165.00664338.074596251543.46457390325230.255880273225131625153260WETL
2024-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253011034.23225.28629.75914.1338551763091.9814971334.0414971331.845.881497133TT2.232161.23264340.626505532064.81436569840220.230561571397361615153252.5WETL
2024-10-21 20:00:03FORECAST20253011034.35824.20629.28215.6176424012032.0700798584.1500798581.866.010079858TT2.358161.35864341.594298044815.33489759315380.234585531714281615152235WETL
2024-10-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253011038.78628.72433.75512.7683565586532.551182483.451182481.895.34118248TT6.786158.78664339.732637530544.33782745060150.397021247662121625153260WETH
2024-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20253011033.87221.3827.6265.53957853679481.5948827512.7548827511.534.284882751TF1.872152.87264334.948616223471.85547416536070.219279393780351615154270WETL
2024-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253011035.22227.8631.5415.59739737314711.5763788042.4863788041.754.236378804TF3.222156.22264334.987230387261.87505664340750.263195992440351625154280WETL
2024-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20253011036.524.4430.4716.0547885192911.3838590152.1738590151.83.973859015TF4.5166.564341.878729434575.48879070031590.308552018789151625152240DRYM
2024-10-21 00:00:04FORECAST20253011028.05823.2725.6647.07930500899850.1070866721.4370866723.394.827086672TF-3.942162.05864335.974985842622.37846940017390.0833566904684731615144256WETL
2024-10-20 20:00:03FORECAST20253011028.23823.46825.8536.46499789026590.1090551771.4990551773.615.109055177TF-3.762165.23864335.565974729432.16943331867080.0862850881436781615144256WETL
2024-10-20 16:00:03FORECAST20253011030.23624.74627.49110.2911684129560.1688977292.3688977293.615.978897729TT-1.764180.23664338.103112383353.47947607048170.124074278126961615153252.5WETL
2024-10-20 12:00:04FORECAST20253011035.79831.98233.891.577405473289701.892.764.65TF3.798202.79864332.288933675950.524154382694050.283212723878691625254290WETM
2024-10-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253011030.32626.31228.31913.7545105407050.208661532.148661532.594.73866153TF-1.674191.32664340.378493954464.6817395829260.126013133209061615153252.5WETL
2024-10-20 04:00:06FORECAST20253011030.2929.42629.85814.0126900357230.0980315492.6880315492.274.958031549TF-1.71191.2964340.547314995894.7719839675350.12523507879891615153252.5WETL