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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 29, 2024

[ Monday, October 28, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 30, 2024 ]

DAY 29 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/30/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.25°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.187
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 218

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.18 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 10 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 109

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-30 04:00:03OBSERVATION20252910932.2726.2500829.260049.81625333333330.179999999999952.11999999999992.114.2299999999999TF0.27218.2765338.77607853028 3.32551181012650.1873955400371216 15253260WETL
2024-10-30 00:00:01FORECAST20252910933.27824.8929.0848.17522681842110.0334645851.9734645852.114.083464585TF1.278219.27864336.703077311742.75262402748390.214546573898291615253260WETL
2024-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20252910933.22424.11628.678.10536575323080.0192913491.9592913492.114.069291349TF1.224219.22464336.656724561362.72872588585450.213036588202161615253260WETL
2024-10-29 08:00:01FORECAST20252910933.09824.02628.5628.07685893782770.0192913491.9592913492.114.069291349TF1.098219.09864336.63780795342.71897608797910.209537450006481615253260WETL
2024-10-29 04:00:02FORECAST20252910932.68424.45828.5718.14467221084150.0204724521.9604724522.114.070472452TF0.684218.68464336.682805370652.74217108877050.198280371596951615253260WETL
2024-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20252910932.86424.00828.4368.6321847043890.0181102461.7981102462.113.908110246TF0.864216.86465337.995581346262.91764028744820.203129311512051615253260DRYH
2024-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20252910932.95423.66628.314.06776613975340.0185039471.7785039472.113.888503947TF0.954217.95465334.964812612591.36255852275430.205580044124751615254280DRYVH
2024-10-28 16:00:01FORECAST20252910932.32423.3627.8424.08549797666530.019685051.779685052.113.88968505TF0.324217.32465334.976654648521.36854644479660.188794026881881615254280DRYVH
2024-10-28 12:00:01FORECAST20252910932.12623.91828.0226.64762263637250.0397638011.7997638012.113.909763801TF0.126217.12665336.682150780662.23813588679210.183697587071211615254280DRYVH
2024-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20252910931.8224.2628.046.9848428905650.0271653691.8871653692.113.997165369TF-0.18215.8265336.905798377252.35323407058550.175991336329831615254280DRYVH
2024-10-28 04:00:03FORECAST20252910931.40624.40427.9057.52569297446360.0346456881.9946456882.114.104645688TF-0.594215.40665337.264095403032.53814603331340.165895532541061615253260WETL
2024-10-28 00:00:02FORECAST20252910931.87425.55628.71514.7607384130280.0791339012.2491339012.114.359133901TF-0.126212.87465342.01006351025.04832108209690.177336216104531615252240WETL
2024-10-27 20:00:01FORECAST20252910932.41426.00629.219.06261692419070.0389763992.4689763992.114.578976399TF0.414214.41465338.279579010033.06569823784440.191139054309251615253260WETL
2024-10-27 16:00:02FORECAST20252910932.48625.3428.9139.18517053401130.0311023792.5011023792.114.611102379TF0.486214.48665338.360382679073.10789781686060.193027847489471615253260WETL
2024-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20252910932.59425.48429.03911.7733762089130.015748042.355748042.114.46574804TF0.594215.59465340.061011005334.00366621654910.195882271185931615253260WETL
2024-10-27 08:00:01FORECAST20252910934.30426.00630.15511.1042851178940.0248031632.3648031632.114.474803163TF2.304219.30465339.622443302933.77126444287140.244393240871971615253260WETL
2024-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20252910934.23224.06229.14710.7590099126470.0263779672.5563779672.114.666377967TF2.232219.23265339.395834785273.65156315076580.242228392687951615253260WETL
2024-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20252910934.53825.84430.1916.01908305506510.0287401732.7087401731.874.578740173TF2.538220.53865336.26478588552.02400567473850.251500312335451625254290WETL
2024-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20252910934.3425.7930.0658.20773237583910.0295275752.7995275751.864.659527575TF2.34220.3465337.715224975392.77187618584430.245479556054241615253260WETL
2024-10-26 16:00:01FORECAST20252910935.0627.21231.1367.95403165305190.0366141932.7866141931.864.646614193TF3.06222.0665337.547507916442.68486356237620.267739159276051625253267.5WETL
2024-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20252910935.65426.8731.2626.60412976212820.0401575022.6501575021.864.510157502TF3.654223.65465336.653291954372.22330202491430.286838408273361625254290WETL
2024-10-26 08:00:02FORECAST20252910935.2426.81631.0285.73858917964750.0303149772.6703149771.814.480314977TF3.24222.2465336.078316296961.92861538941590.27345863422071625254290WETL
2024-10-26 04:00:04FORECAST20252910934.39425.77230.0836.5280052068020.0271653692.6871653691.624.307165369TF2.394223.39465336.60277335522.19734465708670.247113873692281615254280WETL
2024-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20252910933.92626.79830.3625.42714640390980.0507874292.8307874291.644.470787429TF1.926212.92665335.871116474861.82282172195370.233144660024441615254280WETL
2024-10-25 20:00:02FORECAST20252910934.26826.34830.3085.98849474098110.0401575023.1101575021.574.680157502TF2.268215.26865336.244457526352.01359816558060.243309517520951615254280WETL
2024-10-25 16:00:02FORECAST20252910934.2526.36630.3086.06672044736860.0429134093.2029134091.74.902913409TF2.25214.2565336.296441563422.04021649841010.242768629874821615254280WETL
2024-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20252910933.90825.57429.7414.5632359180580.0307086782.9207086781.534.450708678TF1.908213.90865335.295506635911.53003249904450.232616267227891615254280WETL
2024-10-25 08:00:02FORECAST20252910933.09825.28629.1926.21286995656160.0854331173.0054331171.494.495433117TF1.098213.09865336.393535949072.08996929307950.209537450006481615254280WETL
2024-10-25 04:00:04FORECAST20252910932.7224.8928.8056.91719945636610.0811024062.7611024061.524.281102406TF0.72209.7265336.860951982712.33013439392580.199244541767621615254280WETL
2024-10-25 00:00:02FORECAST20252910932.16224.78228.4727.24016064321580.055118142.605118141.494.09511814TF0.162205.16265337.075000097722.44047714951950.184617795877141615254280WETL
2024-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20252910932.16224.58428.3736.13968445716390.0149606382.3849606381.263.644960638TF0.162203.16265336.344919688382.06505167565680.184617795877141615254280DRYVH
2024-10-24 16:00:02FORECAST20252910932.07222.67627.3746.65454540924750.0137795352.4337795351.253.683779535TF0.072000000000003202.07265336.686743953952.24049722633320.182322630467111615254280DRYVH
2024-10-24 12:00:02FORECAST20252910931.65821.90226.786.37760726004950.0094488242.3694488241.333.699448824TF-0.342199.65865336.502935928332.14608356720450.171995478793351615254280DRYVH
2024-10-24 08:00:03FORECAST20252910930.93821.84826.3936.31613431514530.0122047312.4222047311.323.742204731TF-1.062197.93865336.462117869532.12513992842220.154941933525631615154270DRYH
2024-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20252910931.15422.08226.6184.83865339578520.0098425251.9498425251.093.039842525TF-0.846204.15465335.479150096271.62326732882840.159936846479861615254280DRYVH
2024-10-24 00:00:02FORECAST20252910930.45221.66826.065.88311577274460.0413386051.7013386051.012.711338605FF-1.548198.45265336.174412755191.97775299007320.144082957844011615154270DRYH
2024-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20252910930.86621.54226.2045.91493449799050.0283464721.8383464720.992.828346472TF-1.134199.86665336.19556444781.98857474222370.153300046351081615254280DRYVH
2024-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20252910929.73220.06624.8995.79813442982730.0283464721.7783464720.952.728346472FF-2.268193.73265336.117912506171.94885684098370.128957448532081615154270DRYH
2024-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20252910929.46219.97624.7194.37008361038180.0539370371.2739370371.172.443937037FF-2.538190.46265335.166639460631.46470623785370.123579090978641615144256DRYH
2024-10-23 08:00:02FORECAST20252910930.23621.21825.7274.32731462264020.0362204921.3762204921.182.556220492FF-1.764192.23665335.138096337011.45024798488290.139425085478441615144256DRYH
2024-10-23 04:00:04FORECAST20252910930.48823.73827.1135.5577573364680.0362204921.4562204921.32.756220492FF-1.512189.48865335.958030602661.86717320932730.144869326433161615144256DRYH
2024-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20252910930.21822.89226.5557.50019425739610.0208661531.5008661531.152.650866153FF-1.782188.21865337.247214318152.52941962015180.139041593062021615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20252910930.30822.69426.5019.25435634219440.0326771831.8826771831.243.122677183TF-1.692187.30865338.405988075573.13172960198370.140966225169281615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20252910930.68623.05426.878.26127246915270.0318897811.7118897811.272.981889781TF-1.314186.68665337.750605575122.79024977927730.149245799032751615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20252910930.77622.87426.8258.03568333197070.2460631251.6260631251.823.446063125TF-1.224186.77665337.601498191532.71285873186610.151263912464851615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20252910930.66823.21626.9428.28942662459230.2161418491.5561418491.723.276141849TF-1.332186.66865337.769208597622.79991307071660.148844337930721615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-22 04:00:05FORECAST20252910933.81827.69830.7588.49065765363481.3649613672.7149613671.644.354961367TF1.818193.81865337.902134446322.86901134401620.229984296916371615153252.5WETL
2024-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20252910932.6327.03229.8318.68544385092791.5055126242.8155126241.083.895512624TF0.63190.6365338.030738378512.93594699807420.196839396508011615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-21 20:00:03FORECAST20252910933.11626.29429.70510.04067842221.5366150032.8566150031.083.936615003TF1.116191.11665338.923747366853.40302435695750.210035251059471615153252.5DRYMH
2024-10-21 16:00:03FORECAST20252910931.80222.89227.3476.67543421082520.6562995671.6762995671.112.786299567FF-0.198183.80265336.700602923252.24762272355930.175544478518421615154270DRYH
2024-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20252910931.71224.58428.1485.0324837648630.8881894561.6381894561.052.688189456FF-0.288182.71265335.608315728341.68894340025590.173320963191511615154270DRYH
2024-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20252910932.73824.92628.8325.19597991975110.649606651.499606651.162.65960665FF0.738184.73865335.717217666231.74437992170850.199727681668261615144256DRYH
2024-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20252910931.87426.97829.4266.80529087690010.5062994861.3262994861.262.586299486FF-0.126193.87465336.786741663172.29193174050130.177336216104531615144256DRYH
2024-10-21 00:00:03FORECAST20252910933.15228.3130.7316.00224440485820.6448822382.5648822382.164.724882238TF1.152198.15265336.253595463212.01827626198250.21103293110761615154270WETL
2024-10-20 20:00:02FORECAST20252910933.74628.18430.9655.37601365852420.6350397132.7250397132.274.995039713TF1.746200.74665335.837082694091.80546474360240.227890756123651615254280WETL
2024-10-20 16:00:03FORECAST20252910937.2227.48232.3518.74765874556121.1484258173.7084258172.15.808425817TT5.22214.2265338.071801190312.957336748310.340049993586731625253267.5WETH
2024-10-20 12:00:04FORECAST20252910940.2829.334.791.65691267328970.9814965932.6214965932.034.651496593TF8.28231.2865333.349771303610.552331460711180.452790081699211625254290WETM
2024-10-20 08:00:03FORECAST20252910933.42227.8630.64111.8389497578011.2665361172.6265361171.94.526536117TF1.422225.42265340.103952269734.0264736033510.218603430260611615253260WETL
2024-10-20 04:00:05FORECAST20252910937.41826.85232.13513.1006374064981.5602370632.9702370631.894.860237063TF5.418225.41865340.928785444724.46638439954910.3470410146351625253267.5WETM
2024-10-20 00:00:04FORECAST20252910936.19427.53631.8659.39813182405990.086614222.126614221.974.09661422TF4.194221.19465338.500735320743.18127453308550.304742112042291625253267.5WETL
2024-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20252910932.9926.56429.77715.7958280451010.3472442821.8772442822.394.267244282TF0.99212.9965342.681947200515.41294511213970.206565221525941615252240WETL
2024-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20252910934.08828.86831.4789.12243695428850.5003939711.4803939712.684.160393971TF2.088214.08865338.319023486853.08629396219520.237930009544341615243248WETL
2024-10-19 12:00:03FORECAST20252910935.2431.89233.5668.7546643819130.1114173831.6814173832.874.551417383TF3.24218.2465338.076424614332.95974563293560.27345863422071625253267.5WETM
2024-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST20252910931.83828.1329.9846.85394087571370.1468504731.8268504732.634.456850473TF-0.162216.83865336.819005695342.30853755085250.176438911986671615254280WETL
2024-10-19 04:00:06FORECAST20252910931.89231.04631.46914.4665685105830.0799213032.5599213033.365.919921303TT-0.108213.89265341.81879326254.94494499093670.177785944188091615253260WETL