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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 16, 2024

[ Tuesday, October 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 17, 2024 ]

DAY 16 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/17/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.93°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.202
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 393

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 78
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 345.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 96

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-17 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025169639.8199230.0300834.92500000FF7.81992392.8199278345.03906033777 00.2017955113673416 14215217.5DRYL
2024-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST2025169639.1129.9334.520.213524201233180.4181104620.41811046200.418110462FF7.11392.1177344.213985096760.0734980162210760.183834002239021614224228DRYL
2024-10-16 12:00:02FORECAST2025169639.03829.1234.0790.32876382120910.5023624760.50236247600.502362476FF7.038392.03877344.28823031720.11318951419640.182069558893961614234242DRYM
2024-10-16 08:00:02FORECAST2025169639.48830.66835.0780.186309107080130.5700790480.57007904800.570079048FF7.488392.48877344.196448105130.064126932906620.193270651209281614234242DRYM
2024-10-16 04:00:03FORECAST2025169639.45232.57636.0140.19802144611660.6562995670.65629956700.656299567FF7.452392.45277344.203995506380.0681597729492870.192359416486781614234242DRYM
2024-10-16 00:00:02FORECAST2025169638.49831.53235.0150.321191247474440.5625987290.70259872900.702598729FF6.498389.49878345.245266682560.110889757890420.169174977081891614234242DRYM
2024-10-15 20:00:01FORECAST2025169638.37231.69435.0330.197947853424720.5688979450.69889794500.698897945FF6.372391.37278345.166163713860.0683249011820040.166252527125041614234242DRYM
2024-10-15 16:00:01FORECAST2025169638.1232.4535.2850.00701904946227130.5503939980.68039399800.680393998FF6.12391.1278345.043568399930.00242187787323770.160505824133991614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-15 12:00:01FORECAST2025169639.48832.07235.7800.4559057580.58590575800.585905758FF7.488392.48878345.0390603377700.193270651209281614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-15 08:00:01FORECAST2025169639.77632.19835.98700.51181130.631811300.6318113FF7.776392.77678345.0390603377700.200654765139141614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-15 04:00:03FORECAST2025169639.90232.30636.10400.5389766690.64897666900.648976669FF7.902392.90278345.0390603377700.203937758546221614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-15 00:00:02FORECAST2025169639.61432.93636.27500.4295277910.62952779100.629527791FF7.614391.61478345.0390603377700.196480618744621614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-14 20:00:01FORECAST2025169639.61432.55836.0860.0634660743646570.3984254120.64842541200.648425412FF7.614391.61478345.079819204090.0219008614673490.196480618744621614234242DRYM
2024-10-14 16:00:02FORECAST2025169639.48831.8235.6540.586039919577470.4322836980.66228369800.662283698FF7.488391.48878345.415174313760.202427080975680.193270651209281614234242DRYM
2024-10-14 12:00:02FORECAST2025169639.68631.4635.57300.4011813190.75118131900.751181319FF7.686391.68678345.0390603377700.198329273697751614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-14 09:27:01FORECAST2025169638.5730.77634.6730.0665868476230380.3940947010.72409470100.724094701FF6.57388.5778345.081823242080.02297791078170.170859630780151614234242DRYM
2024-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST2025169638.4831.74835.11400.4362207080.74622070800.746220708FF6.48387.4878345.0390603377700.168755481627441614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-14 04:00:04FORECAST2025169638.28229.6633.97100.4732286020.88322860200.883228602FF6.282387.28278345.0390603377700.164185097624221614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-14 00:00:02FORECAST2025169637.72429.0333.37700.4574805620.72748056200.727480562FF5.724378.72478345.0390603377700.151740000048251614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-13 20:00:02FORECAST2025169637.97629.06633.52100.429134090.6991340900.69913409FF5.976378.97678345.0390603377700.157280816229041614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-13 16:00:01FORECAST2025169637.429.67833.53900.4826774260.84267742600.842677426FF5.4378.478345.0390603377700.144808448318221614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-13 12:00:02FORECAST2025169638.08429.333.69200.4106301430.73063014300.730630143FF6.084377.08478345.0390603377700.159695560805171614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2025169638.2129.333.75500.4543309540.65433095400.654330954FF6.21378.2178345.0390603377700.162543181123741614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-13 04:00:04FORECAST2025169639.18229.24634.21400.5129924030.68299240300.682992403FF7.182379.18278345.0390603377700.185609032795811614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-13 00:00:02FORECAST2025169639.16429.53434.34900.7082680990.98826809900.988268099FF7.164373.16478345.0390603377700.185164283424891614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2025169639.81228.88634.34900.7318901591.05189015901.051890159FF7.812373.81278345.0390603377700.201589517107361614245270DRYH
2024-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST2025169641.64829.37235.5100.7759846711.03598467101.035984671FF9.648374.64878345.0390603377700.25261991890971624245280DRYVH
2024-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2025169642.40429.73236.06801.2287408211.49874082101.498740821FF10.404377.40478345.0390603377700.275452270507381624245280DRYVH
2024-10-12 08:00:03FORECAST2025169642.2630.48836.37401.2503943761.51039437601.510394376FF10.26380.2678345.0390603377700.2710262622288416242552100DRYVH
2024-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025169643.14230.9237.03101.3055125161.63551251601.635512516FF11.142380.14278345.0390603377700.298677034295216242552100DRYVH
2024-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST2025169643.37630.99237.18401.3980322511.80803225101.808032251FF11.376375.37678345.0390603377700.3062224033454916242552100DRYVH
2024-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2025169644.8732.19838.53401.4716543381.76165433801.761654338FF12.87382.8778345.0390603377700.3562356495048216242552100DRYVH
2024-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2025169645.57231.92838.7501.4460637731.78606377301.786063773FF13.572381.57278345.0390603377700.3806878182940316242552100DRYVH
2024-10-11 12:00:03FORECAST2025169643.1631.92837.54400.7602366311.18023663101.180236631FF11.16379.1678345.0390603377700.299254440361691624245280DRYVH
2024-10-11 08:00:03FORECAST2025169643.41232.05437.73300.9074808051.34748080501.347480805FF11.412379.41278345.0390603377700.307390664399321624245280DRYVH
2024-10-11 04:00:04FORECAST2025169643.57431.76637.6700.9129926191.34299261901.342992619FF11.574380.57478345.0390603377700.312671900684991624245280DRYVH
2024-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025169643.37631.96437.6700.9224414431.40244144301.402441443FF11.376376.37678345.0390603377700.306222403345491624245280DRYVH
2024-10-10 20:00:03FORECAST2025169642.6231.94637.28300.8814965391.15149653901.151496539FF10.62377.6278345.0390603377700.282157165482131624245280DRYVH
2024-10-10 16:00:03FORECAST2025169640.85632.68436.7700.9476383071.18763830701.187638307FF8.856377.85678345.0390603377700.229813075919841614245270DRYH
2024-10-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025169639.18231.98235.58201.1204730461.58047304601.580473046FF7.182372.18278345.0390603377700.185609032795811614255287.5DRYVH
2024-10-10 08:00:03FORECAST2025169639.45231.74835.601.0283470121.45834701201.458347012FF7.452370.45278345.0390603377700.192359416486781614245270DRYH
2024-10-10 04:00:05FORECAST2025169638.330.52434.41200.7720476611.25204766101.252047661FF6.3370.378345.0390603377700.164597247362281614245270DRYH
2024-10-10 00:00:03FORECAST2025169639.07431.20835.14100.3992128140.4792128140.020.499212814FF7.074369.07478345.0390603377700.182950456248521614225235DRYL
2024-10-09 20:00:03FORECAST2025169638.89431.38835.14100.3291340360.3591340360.030.389134036FF6.894369.89478345.0390603377700.178572489953731614225235DRYL
2024-10-09 16:00:03FORECAST2025169639.68631.8235.75300.3173230060.3473230060.030.377323006FF7.686370.68678345.0390603377700.198329273697751614225235DRYL
2024-10-09 12:00:03FORECAST2025169641.37831.98236.6800.2385828060.2485828060.030.278582806FF9.378375.37878345.0390603377700.244713643649881614225235DRYL
2024-10-09 08:00:03FORECAST2025169642.49431.87437.18400.007874020.017874020.040.05787402FF10.494377.49478345.0390603377700.278236444413821624215220DRYL
2024-10-09 04:00:05FORECAST2025169640.85631.15436.00500.0090551230.0190551230.030.049055123FF8.856369.85678345.0390603377700.229813075919841614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-09 00:00:03FORECAST2025169642.60233.04437.82300.0188976480.0888976480.050.138897648FF10.602370.60278345.0390603377700.281595439525031624215220DRYL
2024-10-08 20:00:03FORECAST2025169640.6432.32436.48200.0232283590.1032283590.030.133228359FF8.64366.6478345.0390603377700.22379892387741614225235DRYL
2024-10-08 16:00:03FORECAST2025169639.88432.01835.95100.0299212760.1399212760.040.179921276FF7.884367.88478345.0390603377700.203466813385121614225235DRYL
2024-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025169638.89431.6435.26700.0200787510.1500787510.030.180078751FF6.894368.89478345.0390603377700.178572489953731614225235DRYL
2024-10-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025169640.80231.87436.33800.0192913490.0892913490.020.109291349FF8.802375.80278345.0390603377700.228301125408091614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-08 04:00:05FORECAST2025169644.36630.61437.49000.150.020.17FF12.366378.36678345.0390603377700.339031139117231624225240DRYM
2024-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST2025169641.84628.68835.26700.2492127330.5192127330.020.539212733FF9.846359.84678345.0390603377700.25850211868171624235260DRYH
2024-10-07 20:00:03FORECAST2025169640.94631.04635.99600.240157610.670157610.020.69015761FF8.946358.94678345.0390603377700.232345386076091614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-07 16:00:04FORECAST2025169634.62830.0232.32400.62992161.02992160.021.0499216FF2.628351.62878345.0390603377700.0941813658061931614245270DRYH
2024-10-07 12:00:03FORECAST2025169641.68431.65836.67100.7590555281.2190555280.421.639055528FF9.684347.68478345.0390603377700.253684147872421624245280DRYVH
2024-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025169642.15230.34436.24800.830709111.390709110.321.71070911FF10.152340.15278345.0390603377700.26773017053911624245280DRYVH
2024-10-07 04:00:06FORECAST2025169642.15230.34436.24801.0456698561.8756698560.242.115669856FF10.152345.15278345.0390603377700.267730170539116242552100DRYVH
2024-10-07 00:00:04FORECAST2025169637.54429.46233.50300.1118110840.7618110840.060.821811084FF5.544345.54478345.0390603377700.147862445407341614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-06 20:00:04FORECAST2025169637.38228.97633.17900.1122047850.8722047850.161.032204785FF5.382341.38278345.0390603377700.144429698686811614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-06 16:00:03FORECAST2025169634.48428.97631.7300.133858340.193858340.640.83385834FF2.484343.48478345.0390603377700.0919621730693371614225235DRYL
2024-10-06 12:00:04FORECAST2025169631.2829.22830.254000.280.690.97FF-0.72327.2878345.0390603377700.0520180110467661614225235DRYL
2024-10-06 08:00:04FORECAST2025169629.8427.6828.76000.170.640.81FF-2.16327.8478345.0390603377700.0392760613888131614225235DRYL
2024-10-06 04:00:06FORECAST2025169632.28832.19832.243000.880.531.41FF0.288317.28878345.0390603377700.0627411637776731614235252.5DRYMH