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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 12, 2024

[ Friday, October 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 13, 2024 ]

DAY 12 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/13/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.934
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 415

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 82
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 92

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-13 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025129263.5700248.2100855.890050001.171.17FF31.57002414.5700282348.85348356404 00.9344239151075916 54315230DRYL
2024-10-13 00:00:01FORECAST2025129257.0243.39450.2070001.171.17FF25.02408.0281347.9053064059600.807427614817211644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 12:00:01FORECAST2025129256.35443.21449.7840001.171.17FF24.354407.35481347.9053064059600.789109662268241644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 08:00:02FORECAST2025129256.67842.94449.8110001.171.17FF24.678407.67881347.9053064059600.798145357508771644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2025129256.343.08849.6940001.171.17FF24.3407.381347.9053064059600.787581028822771644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-12 00:00:02FORECAST2025129257.0242.76449.8920001.171.17FF25.02404.0282348.8534835640400.807427614817211644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 20:00:01FORECAST2025129257.81243.55650.6840001.171.17FF25.812405.81282348.8534835640400.827901926424751644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 16:00:01FORECAST2025129257.4744.29450.8820001.171.17FF25.47405.4782348.8534835640400.819236833923561644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2025129257.77645.69851.7370001.171.17FF25.776405.77682348.8534835640400.82700246969731644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 08:00:02FORECAST2025129257.63245.5951.6110001.171.17FF25.632406.63282348.8534835640400.823374836356571644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 04:00:03FORECAST2025129257.4745.15851.3140001.171.17FF25.47406.4782348.8534835640400.819236833923561644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2025129257.6545.69851.6740001.171.17FF25.65402.6582348.8534835640400.823830896767311644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025129257.54245.39251.4670001.171.17FF25.542403.54282348.8534835640400.821083377142361644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025129258.15445.87852.0160001.171.17FF26.154405.15482348.8534835640400.836297836815161644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 12:00:02FORECAST2025129257.16444.97851.0710001.171.17FF25.164403.16482348.8534835640400.811256761655111644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025129256.53444.52850.5310001.171.17FF24.534401.53482348.8534835640400.794158389223521644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 04:00:04FORECAST2025129257.95644.99651.4760001.171.17FF25.956403.95682348.8534835640400.83146991025891644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025129258.02845.06851.5480001.191.19FF26.028401.02882348.8534835640400.833235982198711644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025129258.22645.551.8630001.21.2FF26.226400.22682348.8534835640400.838031019174791644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025129258.69445.75252.2230001.21.2FF26.694400.69482348.8534835640400.849004986409071654315230DRYL
2024-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025129258.2845.84252.0610001.21.2FF26.28401.2882348.8534835640400.839323052777681644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025129258.3745.84252.1060001.211.21FF26.37401.3782348.8534835640400.841461481265831644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025129257.9244.61851.2690001.21.2FF25.92396.9282348.8534835640400.830582392895691644215225DRYL
2024-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025129258.42444.6951.5570001.221.22FF26.424393.42482348.8534835640400.842735561273091644215225DRYL
2024-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025129258.53244.81651.6740001.21.2FF26.532394.53282348.8534835640400.845263523660421644215225DRYL
2024-10-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025129259.57646.23852.9070001.211.21FF27.576397.57682348.8534835640400.868315698730341654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2025129259.50445.98652.7450001.21.2FF27.504397.50482348.8534835640400.866806138429991654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 08:00:03FORECAST2025129260.18845.9553.0690001.191.19FF28.188401.18882348.8534835640400.880672075248291654315230DRYL
2024-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025129260.0846.11253.0960001.191.19FF28.08402.0882348.8534835640400.878552981096581654315230DRYL
2024-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025129258.7345.69852.2140001.191.19FF26.73395.7382348.8534835640400.849828199513951654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025129259.46844.81652.1420001.191.19FF27.468396.46882348.8534835640400.86604692278811654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 16:00:03FORECAST202512925945.42852.2140001.191.19FF2739882348.8534835640400.855907085486091654215227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025129253.79843.44848.623000.371.221.59FF21.798388.79882348.8534835640400.710027874538741644225250DRYMH
2024-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2025129252.86242.36847.615000.251.241.49FF20.862383.86282348.8534835640400.677950960380171634225245DRYM
2024-10-07 04:00:05FORECAST2025129253.52842.65648.092000.191.221.41FF21.528384.52882348.8534835640400.700929085265171644225250DRYMH
2024-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025129252.75444.61848.6860001.231.23FF20.754387.75482348.8534835640400.674156697780961634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-06 20:00:03FORECAST2025129251.00842.13446.571000.011.321.33FF19.008382.00882348.8534835640400.610554475259921634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025129248.66841.3645.01400.1862205730.4562205731.331.786220573FF16.668377.66882348.8534835640400.520757285345521634225245DRYM
2024-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025129250.95440.51445.73400.173228440.523228441.321.84322844FF18.954370.95482348.8534835640400.608528763408791634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025129250.97240.1945.58100.1598426060.5098426061.281.789842606FF18.972370.97282348.8534835640400.609204330676211634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-06 04:00:05FORECAST2025129252.2539.97446.11200.1082677750.3982677751.31.698267775FF20.25367.2582348.8534835640400.656216224748361634225245DRYM
2024-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025129254.71639.6547.18300.0885827250.1985827251.311.508582725FF22.716360.71682348.8534835640400.739953170438521644225250DRYMH
2024-10-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025129254.80639.59647.201000.11.291.39FF22.806357.80682348.8534835640400.742799064568851644225250DRYMH
2024-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025129251.0838.78644.93300.0488189240.2388189241.291.528818924FF19.08358.0882348.8534835640400.613250750781641634225245DRYM
2024-10-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025129254.3239.5646.94000.021.221.24FF22.32370.3282348.8534835640400.727241424608591644215225DRYL
2024-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST2025129254.64439.99247.3180001.211.21FF22.644368.64482348.8534835640400.737664836958291644215225DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025129255.11240.04647.5790001.21.2FF23.112373.11282348.8534835640400.752352779347991644215225DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:04FORECAST2025129254.46440.4647.462000.021.751.77FF22.464369.46482348.8534835640400.73189928667761644215225DRYL
2024-10-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025129255.1340.9148.02000.081.911.99FF23.13373.1382348.8534835640400.752908808476341644215225DRYL
2024-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025129254.08639.59646.841000.111.912.02FF22.086365.08682348.8534835640400.719587878393611644225250DRYMH
2024-10-04 12:00:04FORECAST2025129254.30239.4746.88600.0066929170.1066929171.891.996692917FF22.302365.30282348.8534835640400.726656384715871644225250DRYMH
2024-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025129255.97642.00848.99200.0066929170.0466929172.012.056692917FF23.976366.97682348.8534835640400.778274510110491644215225DRYL
2024-10-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025129253.72639.86646.79600.0066929170.1166929171.962.076692917FF21.726359.72682348.8534835640400.707614236911751644225250DRYMH
2024-10-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025129250.97238.58844.7800.177165450.737165452.012.74716545FF18.972355.97282348.8534835640400.609204330676211634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025129251.78238.87645.32900.1346457420.7046457421.862.564645742FF19.782356.78282348.8534835640400.639235256068761634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025129253.6937.59845.644000.531.822.35FF21.69359.6982348.8534835640400.706403929016521644235275DRYVH
2024-10-03 12:00:04FORECAST2025129249.58638.42644.00600.0803150040.4403150041.92.340315004FF17.586368.58682348.8534835640400.556372690924581634225245DRYM
2024-10-03 08:00:04FORECAST2025129264.56239.54252.05200.0775590970.4175590971.942.357559097FF32.562392.56282348.8534835640400.945953627152771654225255DRYH
2024-10-03 04:00:06FORECAST2025129264.56238.26451.41300.2173229520.7373229522.032.767322952FF32.562395.56282348.8534835640400.945953627152771654235282.5DRYVH
2024-10-03 00:00:04FORECAST2025129235.7833.49434.63700.0622047580.6522047581.812.462204758FF3.78350.7882348.8534835640400.11352511608741614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-02 20:00:04FORECAST2025129238.7536.30237.526000.371.752.12FF6.75355.7582348.8534835640400.179458239239521614225235DRYL
2024-10-02 16:00:04FORECAST2025129238.71435.90637.31000.241.571.81FF6.714357.71482348.8534835640400.178537677217011614225235DRYL
2024-10-02 12:59:58FORECAST2025129241.23438.6639.947000.21.781.98FF9.234365.23482348.8534835640400.249976350383471624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025129241.23438.6639.947000.21.781.98FF9.234366.23482348.8534835640400.249976350383471624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025129237.47234.3435.906000.091.641.73FF5.472366.47282348.8534835640400.148606106830361614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-02 04:00:07FORECAST2025129237.5836.78837.184000.091.731.82FF5.58366.5882348.8534835640400.151067568896251614215217.5DRYL